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Well.
A significant story that we're following today, of course, is the US Supreme Court preserved full access to a widely used abortion pill in a case that carried major steaks for reproductive rights and election year results. Of court unanimly overturned a federal appeals that would have barred mail order prescriptions of MiFi pristone, the drug now used in more than half of US abortions. Let's get some color on that. We do that with Wendy Schiller is the professor at
Brown University. What do you make of this decision coming out of this Supreme Court here in what is an election here?
Yeah?
Hi, Paul, I mean, it's a it's an interesting decision. They really use the idea of standing. They basically said, you know, the people who are suing are not injured direct or directly impacted by this by the FDA's power to approve this called abortion pill. But that's the moniker for it. And so they really stuck to jurisdiction like, we you don't have.
Standing to bring this case to us.
The Fifth Circuit, you know, said upheld the plaintiff's request, but also in their opinion said, well, we're not sure this is going to hold up at the Supreme Court.
None of the.
Plaintiffs are directly injured.
And that's the way the Supreme Court unanimously got out of sort of the bigger debate about this pill and abortion. It is used in the majority of medical abortions in the country. So the politics are that the Republicans can breathe a sigh of relief because the Democrats cannot make
this another issue on top of abortion access. But on the other hand, pro life groups will now push Republicans on the campaign trail to say they'll do something legislatively about this rather than through the courts.
What could they do legislatively, then what would be on the docket for that.
Well, alex I could do a few different things. One is they could limit the jurisdiction of the FDA.
They could try to.
Reverse the supremacy clause, which is that the federal law supersedes state law. Louisiana, for example, has now scheduled this particular pill as a dangerous substance, which really limits its access.
That's going to happen in more states.
The question is can the federal government undo that or contradict that? So they could push for laws that say, in this particular case, the FDA overreaches and Congress is not giving.
The FDA this power.
I think it's unlikely that the congres will do that for lots of reasons.
Having to do with drug development and access.
But it could be something that some Republicans bring up on the campaign trail. But it will only sort of fire up people who are really concerned about abortion access, who showed their electoral might in twenty twenty two.
And are expected to get out the door again in twenty four.
So I guess, Wendy, how do you think each campaign will maybe approach this issue here? I mean, are they just going to say, you know, the Supreme Court is ruling, will continue to rule, and will abide by that. I mean, how how is this ruling today? I think we'll impact twenty four Well, Paul.
I mean Paul and Ox.
I think by the my administration will take credit for having an FDA and some of these decisions predate the Biden administration, but protecting the FDA's discretion and FDA as a medical institution, and they'll say, listen, if you want to make sure that your access not just to this drug, but to lots of other drugs that might help you or save your life, you have to go with us, because we're the ones who believe in science. That will be the Biden message. Trump will be quiet about this.
He has tried to back away from abortion, really saying leaving to the states rather than going for some national band, because he recognizes that all the issues that could deny him a victory, abortion is very high in the list, especially in states like at least Arizona for now and possibly also on the ballot in Florida.
So there is another abortion case before the Supreme Court. Can you walk us through what that is and how it differs.
Well, I mean, the other thing is about whether emergency room doctors and hospitals have to provide abortion to save the life of somebody.
In other words, to make the case.
That even in a state that doesn't allow abortion in case of danger to the life of the mother, that they in fact are obligated to and have to do this and won't be put in prison or you know, sued for doing it.
So this is a.
Really big case because we've already seen where doctors have become more hesitant in states like Texas for really taking this step in order to save the life of a mother for fear of prosecution or losing your medical license, for example. So this is a bigger case for the actual surgical procedures of a worship.
So I guess you know, as you think about it, just in the context of a presidential election year, Wendy, what do you think are members of Congress. Are they bringing this to the forefront or they just don't want to get anywhere near this issue in what is an election year.
Well, Democrats want to basically advertise in most but not all states, that they are the party that will try to protect access to reproductive health care, particularly in cases of rape. Incess life of the mother, but also that they are the party that will not come after contraception. For example, there are public and members of Congress, with some exceptions, want to really stay away from this issue.
They really believe that this is the one.
Issue that could cost them congression, racists, and the presidency, just based on what we saw in twenty twenty.
Two in response to the Dobbs' decision. So Republicans want to stay away from it.
They're hoping the court doesn't give the other side a lot of ammunition. And the Democrats are really going to hit home with this message, particularly in those two swings that I mentioned, Arizona and Florida.
So considering that the case that we found out about today was a procedural issue and that's why the vote went the way it went, what are going to be the two sides in the Idaho case.
Well, this is really it will come back to the Court's position that abortion is a state's issue, that states have the right to regulate all conditions and access for abortion.
That's pretty much what Dobbs did, and now Trump has reiterated that he believes it's up to the states.
So if states want to criminalize giving a woman an abortion, even to save her life. I'm not sure the Supreme Court's going to step in and say no, no, They've already.
Basically said it's up to the states.
So I think that's the big question mark, and politically for the Republicans, this is a very difficult issue if it in fact becomes the case that doctors are threatened with prison for saving the life of a woman.
You know, that affects women everywhere.
It affects women and their daughters, It affects a lot of people in their daily life in terms of the reproductive health, people who are trying to get pregnant, people have a complicated pregnancy. So it really gets to that core of voters that rejected the Republicans in twenty twenty two in this issue and are very likely to do so again if it is the case that a state can really prevent a doctor from saving women's life.
So are we going to end up Wendy with abortion policies that really are red and blue? Are we going to have that checkerboard in this country? Is that kind of how this thing may develop?
I mean, you can argue, Paul that we already have that, and we certainly had a little bit of that before abortion was legalized in nineteen seventy three with the court decision, And really, when you think about it, there are states where it's really almost virtually impossible to get an abortion, and certainly for the six week abortion band, that becomes very difficult because a lot of women don't know they're
pregnant by then. We really have a situation where there is a slight majority of states where abortion is still accessible, and then we have a great number of states, more than twenty where it's very difficult for a women to get an abortion, and sometimes even.
In the case of a rape ancestor life of the mother.
Now, Texas argues that's not their law, that people are misinterpreting it, that in fact that doctors can perform this in Texas and not be penalized and not be criminalized. But the perception is out there that you can in fact bring this kind of charge or even I a civilian can bring a charge against you for it. So
it's really deterring women's seeking of abortion in those states. Now, some other opponents will point out the fact that we actually had a slight increase in the overall number of abortions last year, and that's where access to this pill makes a huge difference for many women in America in terms of securing an abortion.
Interesting, Okay, that actually really helps to highlight that even though it'd be difficult, that's why this pill became so important, Wendy,
really amazing stuff. Definitely looking forward to having you back, wend You Shiller, Professor at Brown University there standing by, but nonetheless definitely sets the stage for the November election and sort of the policies that will come after that, which to me then makes the question, as an investor, bringing it back to our home base, what do you do about this?
Yeah?
And clearly clearly investors are very worried about immigration, I mean investors, voters everywhere, sure, very worried about immigration, and very worried about fiscal policy. Like France has made that clear, the UK has made that clear, India made that clear, Mexico made that clear. What do we do with that now? If we look forward to the US in November, because no one's going to be tackling a fiscal policy.
No I mean deficit, no way, I mean deficits continue to run rampant at the national debt continues to balloon as a percentage of GDP. And but quite frankly, I've been around a while.
This is always yeah, yeah, always.
Been an issue, and no one has had the political or economic courage to try to tackle it.
So I'm not sure what changes.
It's always the whole like it matters, when it matters, it doesn't matter, do I mean at the end of the day, And.
That's what it comes down to.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecar Play and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa, play Bloomberg eleven.
Thirty Alex Steel alongside Paul Sweeney. This is Bloomberg Intelligence Radio. We bring you all the top news and analysis with our Bloomberg analysts. They cover two thousand companies in one hundred and thirty industries worldwide. And then sometimes we take you outside Bloomberg Intelligence for the view on the street. Today we go to Christina Hooper, chief Global market strategist over at Invesco. She joins us. Now, Christina, I gotta say on board now, like we got through CPI and
we got through the FED. Okay, bonds are still getting a bid. So I put out there that we could see some significant levels now lower in yields. What do you make of the market, What are we going to be looking at next?
So I think next up on the docket is going to be Friday's inflation expectations from the University of Michigan. Now it might not seem that important, but to central bankers, consumer inflation expectations are important. It's part of the calculus.
If we go back to June of twenty twenty two, you may recall the FED messaged in advance of that meeting that it was only going to hike fifty basis points, then turned around and hiked seventy five basis points, and when asked about it at the press conference, J. Powell pointed to a few different data points, including Michigan inflation expectations.
So I think it's important, But I also am confident that it's going to show that inflation expectations are pretty well anchored, and it will be part of the mosaic of data that the FED reviews next time, and which I think will cause the FED to begin cutting in the.
Third quarter, cutting in the third quarter.
Okay, So I know you know at this time of year, Christina. You know, every six months, folks that investo you bring together some of your key investment professionals, thought leaders and think about the next six months. What's the next six months look to you, guys.
So, in terms of the economy, we expect to continue to see a slowdown in the US, a cooling, but we would anticipate that that's going to be relatively brief and that by the end of the year we'll see a reacceleration and growth. They'll be catalysts like the start of recuts as well as improvements in real income that will help consumers. So all in all, a better picture economically by the end of the year, but nothing bad in between. And we would anticipate markets starting to discount
that soon. That would mean a broadening of the stock market, more participation, better performance from cyclicals and smaller caps, and in a more sustained way. Once we start to see the rate cuts begin from the FED.
So but once you see that growth and the cuts, does that lead to higher inflation then.
No.
I think that the FED has done a very good job putting out the flames of higher in inflation. So I don't think the risk is as big as they suggested yesterday that there could be some kind of resurgence in inflation. And we certainly don't have the kind of fiscal stimulus we had that I think was an important part of why we saw such a big increase in inflation. I just don't see that happening going forward.
How about in Europe, Christina, the last couple of days, we've seen some changes in the EU. We've seen in France snap elections. We now have the France Germany ten year yield gap set for the widest since twenty seventeen.
Look at you, look at me.
Gotpad exactly all geopolitical. How do you think about the European Zone, because it seems to be some unsteadiness there.
Well, we try to put blinders on when it comes to politics because it can cause volatility in the short term, but beyond that tends not to have a significant impact on markets. So when I look at Europe, what I see is positive economic surprise, and I see the potential for more of that going forward. We also when we look at European equities and UK equities, what we see is greater exposure to cyclicals, so they'd be more sensitive
and potentially benefit from an economic reacceleration. And I also see an increase in stock buybacks coming in both those markets. So there's a lot to be very positive about when we look at Europe and the UK.
How can you put blinders on when it comes to politics in that we've seen a lot of violent shocks in the market, whether it's France or Mexico, or South Africa or India, and the market reaction is what seems to be catching investors on the back foot. Are we learning a market reaction function to the election in November?
Well, I think there's certainly the possibility that we have a significant market reaction in the short term.
We have seen that absolutely.
With Mexico, with India, and there's certainly the potential for it to happen again. But most investors have a longer time horizon than two weeks or a month or two months, and so that's why I would argue it's important to put blinders on when it comes to things like politics.
All Right, So if we want to stay close to home US equities here, I just stay with a big cap growth names that have worked so well for so long, or do I try to get a little bit more bold here, take a long little more risk and try to find some value out there.
I think you need to be well diversified. And for most investors, their portfolios are likely overweight the large caps the growth, so it's time to rebalance and ensure there's adequate exposure to smaller caps, to value to cyclicals. I think those areas will perform better as we start to
discount a reacceleration in the economy. That doesn't mean that the big cap tech names are going to do terribly, just means that participation is going to broaden and we could actually see our performance by the cyclicals.
Is that so diversified?
So?
And I know you mentioned cyclicals over in Europe as well. Do you need to sell tech to buy the cyclicals or do you just need to sort of take from cash? What do you think?
I think what's more likely the case is that there is an overweight to cash and investors' portfolios, and especially as the FED begins to cut rates and cash isn't paying as much, there's a greater argument for reshuffling and at least allocating some of that overweight to cash, to cyclicals, but in some cases there could be extreme overweights and portfolios to technology and large cap growth, and it also makes sense to rebalance there as well.
At alternative investments. We have private We all grew up with private equity, hedge funds. Now there's private credit. It seems like there's a lot of opportunities to allocate capital to alternative investments.
How do you, guys invest go think about that.
We think that makes a lot of sense. We were one of the earliest proponents of including alternatives in portfolio. Still believe that's prudent for many investors' portfolios, that greater diversification,
lower correlations. It all makes sense. And there are certainly many opportunities we're seeing in areas like private credit, and I would actually argue there are opportunities appearing in real estate as well, where well, we're certainly seeing European real estate has bottomed, and I also believe there are some opportunities in US real estate that will appear as the year progresses. Keep in mind that one important tail wind again will be rate cuts.
So given what we saw Christina yesterday from the Federal Reserve, what we heard from the Federal reserve. What's pencil it in is your base case here? I know a lot of folks are trying to get a sense of do we have something in December? Do we have something maybe even a little bit sooner, but oh boy, we have this election. How do you guys think about it?
Well, we hate to have false precision, but I do think we believe the most likely scenario is two rate cuts this year. And obviously the FED is very data dependent, so that can change. But based on what we've seen in terms of disinflationary progress, and given what the FED told us yesterday, which is that they anticipate one ray cut without any progress on disinflation, keep in mind their core PCE target, their forecasts for the end of this
year is where core PCE is today. So I would argue that means that no progress equals one ray cut, then some progress in disinflation, which seems increasingly likely, could mean two ray cuts. I'm a believer in that, so I would argue the most likely scenario is September December. I don't think the election is going to change the FED timeline. They've been clear about that.
Christina, really really interesting conversation. I learned a Ton Christina Hooper, chief Global market strategist over at Invesco, and that's that's the jewel. Right, you get growth, you get cuts, and you have inflation coming down, and that leads to your cyclical bias.
At thein the day, it seems constructive.
It seems like the best case scenario.
Yeah.
Absolutely, Mark also saying that the pain trade in the second half could also be led by cyclic goals because kind of no one's investing in them because they're all in tech and overweight tech. At the same time, we did get talked about bonds, but we will in the next hour. You look at the ten year down by another three basis points where to four point two eighty three. That's where we are for the ten year. Also that two year coming down as well to four point seven percent.
As let's be honest, equity market's not doing much.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am Eastern on Affo, Cardplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
This is Bloomberg Intelligence Radio. We bring you all the news and business and finance and economics. There are a lens of Bloomberg Intelligence analysts. They cover two thousand companies and one hundred and thirty industries around the world. And we go to one of them, now, Seali Omas, He's senior energy analyst to Bloomberg Intelligence. He joins us from Dubai because something that's been really confusing for like seasoned.
Oil watchers is what is happening with the oil price.
You got Brent sitting at eighty two dollars eighty eight cents a barrel. If you try and understand what OPEC plus is doing of like what the quotas are for what countries when they're adding oil back, it is three times more complicated than the dot plot. I'm not at all kidding you, Sally.
Do you do you agree with me?
I mean it's so confusing is to understand what OPEC plus is doing that I don't blame the oil price for being confusing either.
Now I totally agree.
I think the current outlook for the oil market and oil prices is that we do have abundant supply for now and the demand picture is still quite bleak, especially for the second half of this year.
I mean, when you look at what OPEC plus is trying to do.
I mean, they currently have three layers of output cuts, and this is pretty confusing for OPEK watchers like myself as well. And what they told the market that their last meeting on June the third was that the first two layers they are holding onto those cuts until the end of last year, but the third layer, which was just voluntary output cuts by only eight members eight member nations from OPEC plus, they will extend them until the end of the third quarter, but starting in the fourth
quarter they will start to unwind them. And the market actually didn't like this at all, which tells me once again that what the market is seeing is plenty of supply even in the fourth quarter of the quarter of this year, and the demand outlooked that's still pretty soft. I mean, I don't think demand has necessarily been bad this year, but it also hasn't been that great. And when you look at some of the expectations for the third quarter, for the fourth quarter, is that it really
picks up in the third quarter. I mean, seasonally, this is generally a good quarter, but there's a significant increase in demand expectations, and the market seems to think I mean, the market seems not so confident about that increase in demand. So all in all, I think it's a very complicated structure that OPEC PLUS has with these cuts now, and they are in a difficult position now where any increase in demand may actually be met by increasing supply by
producers outside of the OPEC PLUS group. So there seems to be very little room for them to increase supply in the rest of this year. So what I expect is that they just extend all the outputcasts they have to the end of this year. Is that our market anxiety and the twenty twenty five outlook, we'll still count on demand being strong, which is not really a given.
So Slee, I guess when we talk about demand, one of the wild cards I always think about is China. What's the market discounting today in terms of demand from China.
Yeah, that's a big question mark.
And you know, as you say, China growth has been one of the biggest drivers of oil demand growth as well, and I think we could be looking at a change in paradigm where you know, I think the market may have been assuming a six percent growth for China, where maybe we need to be pricing in a four percent growth in China, and it's still unclear what that would mean exactly for how that would translate into oil demand
growth numbers from China. But I think a lot of the anxiety you're seeing right now for expectations of oil demand in the second half of the year is still being driven by China because we still don't know where China goes from here in the third quarter and fourth quarter.
And that's sort of the problem, Like nobody knows where demand is going to go, like it's going to eventually decrease, but it's not going to zero. And it feels like, as you were just saying there, in lies OPEC Plus's problem. At the same time, the supply side here in the US and Canada, Brazil, Guyana, it's really really holding up. And all this M and A in the US is only going to make these guys even more efficient aka get more oil out of rocks for example.
What do we make of that part of the equation?
Now, I totally agree with you, and I think the dilemma for OPEC plus right now is clearly their strategy has been focusing on supporting prices and foregoing market share for now. Because you know they need higher oil prices to fiscally break even back.
Home, But the dilemma is that the higher they keep prices.
For their transformation projects back home or whatever it might be, for the fiscal break even prices. But at the same time, the higher they keep prices, the more they encourage non OPEC plus. I mean, as you said, the USHL, Brazil, Guyana, pretty soon Namibia. So they're at this point where you know they won't higher oil prices, but the higher they artificially keep oil prices, the more they're encouraging NONOPEC plus supply, which in turn makes it very difficult for them to
start tapering those cuts. So it's a very difficult position for them, I think. And on your very briefly on your point on on demand again, I absolutely agree it's I mean, as long as I've been covering the oil space, I've never seen a bigger divergence in oil demand expectations between different agencies. When you look look at OPEC plus, what they tell us for this year is that they expect the growth in oil demand globally to be two point two million pounds per day.
What IA is telling us is about half of that.
And you know, when we talk about twenty and thirty twenty thirty five, it's pretty common that we see divergence in expectations between OPEC and Ia, but for this year to have such a big divergence is something that I've never seen before. So clearly, no one really knows what happens in the second half of the year. As I said, third quarter, you know, an uptick is likely, this is
a seasonally good period for oil demand. But then what's what happens in China and what happens in the fourth quarter globally, we really don't know.
See I told you, Paul.
I tell Paul.
I was like, look, you don't have to know anything about oil right now, because no one knows what's happening with oil. So you're good. You're a good company.
So sally happened supply from our good friends in Texas and Oklahoma. Where's the US in terms of global supply these days? How does the market discount that?
So?
I mean, as we've discussed on this call before as well. Last year, I think the US supply growth surprised all of us. I mean, many of the analysts on the street, including myself, we didn't really see that growth from the US coming because you know, we've been talking about how a lot of these producers, a lot of these companies
are very much prioritizing shareholder returns. You know, capex levels are not expected to be at pre pandemic levels just yet, and even with those, we saw incredible growth in US output this year. I mean, what we're hearing and what we expect in BI is probably not as much growth as we saw last year. But again, I mean, oil price levels have been very favorable for these producers, so they've.
Been able to deliver those shareholder returns.
But at the same time, you know, increase copex that's going into their current projects as well as some of their growth projects as well. So I can't give you a number, but a number that's probably slightly lower than the number we saw last year, which was about one million rounds per day, which again, I mean, it may not be as big as the number last year, but I think it's still a big enough number to give OPEK plus trouble.
All Right, Sally, thank you very much, Seli Jumas. We really appreciate it, Bloomberg Intelligence and your technology analyst joining from Dubai. It is very much a confusing market for sure.
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Let's switch gears here and talk about supply chains again. I think we all became someone expert in supply chain analysis during the pandemic, because boy did that take a big shock. And the question is kind of where are we now in the post pandemic world. Oscar Debac joins us. He's the CEO of DHL Supply Chain. He's joining us remotely from our Amsterdam bureau. I haven't even been to our Amsterdam bureau, but I'm sure it's spectacular like every
other bureau we have. Oscar, thanks so much for joining us here. I'd love to get your perspective as you think about the global supply chain. From your perspective, where are we in terms of getting back to I'm gonna say normal, I'm not sure if that's the right word, but where are we in terms of moving goods around the world?
Yeah, they're really really good to be here, and indeed the view of your Amsterdam studio is really good.
Actually it's not Poolia, but still it's it's decent. So back to your question, what is normal is obviously the question.
But what you do see is if you.
If you take the last the last four years, where we've seen obviously every distraction and the disruption of supply chains over over time, being at wars and being as obviously the uh, the the the disease and all of that. But what where I think we are now is starting to get in a phase where it gradually starts to stabilize. But it's also because companies have become far better and people as well, obviously consumers as well, but the companies
have become far better to respond to the unexpected. And I think that's also one of the elements on how supply chains have now been. Are now manutes far better than than not the time sort of companies moved away from the just in time part.
Now making sure that products are actually available.
There's far more security in supply chains, but also there's better of data, there's better the whole digitalization is better.
Yeah, and indeed supplies are organized differently.
If you look at how where stocks are being put, how it's being spread over the world, but you know called near shoring, omnishoring, trying to postpone all of that.
But you see a change of house supplied to its organized well.
And then to that point, I mean, I was going to go with logistics and robots, not you know, future crazy, weird looking robots, but just the idea that companies had to become much leaner and get better and trim lots of fat and be better at logistics to do all the things that you're talking about. That's also an investment cycle. Where are we in that right now in the industry.
So what you see is that indeed the industry is really accelerated in that perspective. So if you take indeed, if you take the robotics element of it, and indeed it's not a futuristic thing. It's actually happening today where lots of operations, of fulfillment operations work with collaborative robotics, where people work to together with robots with robotic solutions.
And that's one way which is important not only from a.
Productivity perspective, but also to be able to manage and to cope with fluctuations of seasonalities, of high seasons, peak seasons, and you see that if I take our own company as an example, where maybe five years ago we would have zero robots, we now have about seven thousand, and that is fast growing further, and that helps us to better manage the expected but also better manage peak seasons, and also to make a working environment more exciting for
people as well, because that's the other element, and you need to make sure to be able to attract people, to be a great place to work for people.
So that's another important.
Element on that robotics agenda as well, but that always comes together comes together with being better at data analytics, because the better you can read data, the better you can forecast, make the right investments, but also forecast what's going to happen tomorrow, next week and the week after Oscar.
One of the themes that came out of the pandemic was a sense of we've got to shore up our supply chain, so that means I guess on shoring, friends shoring, maybe bringing stuff a little bit closer to the end market.
Are we actually seeing that? Do you actually see that in trade flows?
Yeah? What you see is you already have said it right right.
There's several names that has been given to it, whether it's now the Assuring, Ushuring, Omnishuring, and then you have the China plus one terminology. But what it all comes back to is that, yes, there is an element of having stock closer to the end market, but there's a more important element is that companies don't bet anymore to have their key supplies, their key components coming from one
sourcing point on one continent. They all make sure that whenever they now make investments in their next capacity, so their next production site and the next player then make sure that it is other different continent.
Uh. And that's what you start to see.
You see that very much in the semicon business, where you see lots of investments in Malaysia, investments in the US, investments in the eastern parts of Europe.
So that's a trend you see.
Or if you look the automotive industry, the major investments that you see in Mexico there but similarly also in for instance Thailand, in India, so you see that the suppli sees are being spread moreover to actually spread the risk and indeed at the same time also be closer to the market.
Before we let you go, you talked about how suppliers are looking for the not just in time, but to build a little bit of inventory, which leads me to demand. Where are the weak parts right now?
The weak parts in the supply chains?
You mean, yeah, I mean like in terms of the demand pole, like what kind of countries are buying, Like what kind of industries still have that demand pole?
Well, I think overall, it's not that there's so what you see is it the demand pole overall?
Because it was just in a in a different interview.
We were just discussing about the volumes that are upcoming and what you what you clearly see at the moment is that stocks are being built up, not to the levels maybe that we've seen two years back, but companies are building up stock because there are forecasting a certain demount poo in qg Q four. Now, how much is actually going to be that that we now now need to see your question about. From a geography perspective, there's obviously we see an increased flow from Asia to the US,
to to to Europe. We see an uh hesitant increase of building up of stock in the US. Similar picture in some parts of parts of parts of Europe. So that's a bit from a geographical perspective.
How you see that.
But overall there is a sort of a a careful building up of stock being ready for a sort of conservative peak season.
All right, Oscar, thank you so much for joining us. Really appreciate getting your first hand insight. Oscar Debak. He's the CEO of DHL Supply Chain, joining us from our Amsterdam bureau.
Which, again, for those on YouTube books, pretty darn sweet.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecard Play and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
I'm Alex thee alongside Paul Sweeney. This is Bloomberg Intelligence Radio. We cover all the top news in business, finance, and economics through our lens of Bloomberg Intelligence analysts. They cover two thousand companies and one hundred and thirty industries around the world, and for the month of June, Bloomberg Radio is committed to bringing you segments and guests that focused on the topic of equality, and today we're speaking with Ashley Fox, CEO and founder of Emplify. Ashley, thanks for
joining us in studio. You're based in Atlanta, Georgia, but you are a recovering Wall Streeter, so New York is still kind of home for you. Yes, yes, what is empify?
So emplify is the word empower and modify, merge together. So I made the word of We are a fintech startup that is revolutionized on how adults and children learn how to build wealth. So we create financial education tools and resources that target the ninety nine percent that Wall Street often overlooks. So we created programs in school systems and prison systems. We have a membership based at where people from all over the world have access to financial education the palm of their hand.
So what are you trying to address Initially? Is it just the fact that you're trying to say, hey, this is how you invest or? I mean, what's kind of that?
How do you get there?
So, coming from a Wall Street background, we worked with ultra high network individuals and so when you had at least twenty five million dollars, there's an infrastructure set up to help you protect your wealth, grow your wealth, and preserve your wealth. But what does that look like for the everyday person? Because you can't just walk into a bank and say, hey, can you teach me how to buy a stock? Can you teach me how to create a trust or build a legacy to pass out to
my family? And I wanted to create something that gave that Wall Street experience but for the everyday person. So we're teaching you for the basics getting your investments started, because there's a lot of fear, doubt, and worry, and I wanted to break that mental barrier to show people no matter how much money you do or do not have, where you come from, or what you look like, you can build wealth, break by brick, share by share, And so we want to make it in a culturally relevant,
easy to understand way. So we've taught middle school students how to open brokerage accounts, how to buy a stock. We've been in the prison systems teaching the everyday person a topic that we don't like to talk about at the dinner table, but it is something that can change our family's dynamics.
Definitely when so for my daughter, we'll be in middle school in the years. So I love this program I keep trying to teach her if you spend that, you won't have that money later. But you know it doesn't always think gam when she's nine and a half. In terms of people who use your app to help generate wealth, what is their income base to begin with?
So when we think so are our tech platform is a wealth builders community. So you can kind of look at that like the Netflix of finance, where we have over two hundred and fifty hours of classes, tools, resources covering from retirement planning, stock investing, parent investing, legacy planning, life insurance, and given that holistic experience. So when people come in, I would say we had working professionals at twenty five, so we are one of our oldest members
is seventy three years old. So we typically target working professionals and entrepreneurs who have some income coming in but are financially not educated, financially scared, not sure what to do, where to go, or who to trust, and we create that safe, like community like environment that teaches them the basics again, starting to open your brokerage account, understanding different types of stocks that are out there, how do you build your strategy so that you're growing your money, not
just spending it, but you're preserving it and you're properly passing it down. So it's more of a holistic experience that targets the mind and hearts of people who want to invest, who want to learn how to build, just don't know where to go.
So what are I'm trying to think of my kids, and I think some of the advice I'd give and them is max you for one K, pay your credit cards, don't let anything right on your credit cards, pay it off, and some of the basics.
What are some of the basis that you start with your clients.
So one of the things that we do is take inventory where you spend your money, Where are you shopping, what do you eat, what are you wearing, what gas do you put what kind of car do you drive? Because chances are a lot of the companies we use know and believe in are publicly traded, and we think that we need a lot of money to invest, but there are a lot of stocks that are under three hundred and I We've got trillion dollar businesses that are less than three hundred dollars a share that we give
more money to. And so the easiest way for us to do it is to start with what you know. I'm not. Don't go research a random company you see on the internet. Start with who you are a loyal customer to, because it's a lot easier to read financials. It's a lot easier to understand a company and start there because the chances of you're giving your money to these companies. There's a lot of people who are too, and so really getting it down to who are you, what do you use, what do you need, and let's
start from there. So I always tell people, if if you're going to use it and give your money to the company, why not consider owning a piece of that company? And you can do that by invessing in a stock market.
You told us sort of why you came up with this idea, how long has it been around, what's it been like?
The whole journey. So I left Wall Street July twenty thirteen. I haven't looked back since. One of the craziest but most fulfilling experiences. I went on to be a financial advisor targeting load of moderate income individuals because I had a bunch of security licenses and I realized that I didn't want to focus on the implementation. I wanted to give the education, and so that's where emplified. So I came up with the word in twenty thirteen. We didn't
generate our first stream of revenue until twenty seventeen. Twenty seventeen we got contracts with schools in Atlanta, Philadelphia, and in New York City, and then we went on to really massively produce education all throughout the country. COVID hit and schools didn't know how to function. But the beauty of that was there were a lot of adult saying, I see what you're doing in school systems, what can you do? And I didn't want I felt like God put me here not to just serve one individual as
their advisor. I wanted to build what kleenexes the tissues is what Emplify will be for finance. And that's what I wanted to create. So in twenty twenty twenty, we launched our Wealth or this community platform, which is the tech platform that allows adults in over forty four different countries, thousands of people to get access to the tools and resources. It's been a journey that.
Came second, yesee, the educational parts to schools in prisons.
Correct.
So first we were first we were b to B and then when COVID hit, we became B two C. But we were able to scale a lot faster because we had technology. And so I would say, journey wise, it's it's been fulfilling because we've impacted the lives of millions of people. We've partnered with community college, financial institutions, companies that I used to work for or research are
aligning ourselves. We're aligning ourselves to these organizations to be able to create financial education resources for the everyday person. So I could say, as an entrepreneur, it's been a journey. I started out with something I wanted to give the world. I didn't know how, I did not know what I was going to do, but I knew why, and I knew I wanted to be the woman and get it done.
And I think I'm able to translate Wall Street knowledge because I understand how the banking system, how Walls Street works. But I also didn't come from growing up with a lot of money. I'm the first person in my family
to graduate from college. I was making more money than both my parents when I was early on Wall Street, and I wanted to be able to take that universal language and create something that can make people believe no matter what you look like, you can build wealth and no matter what you do or do not know, emplithize here to give you that education.
How many employees do you have in your company and house? How's that growing?
So right now we are a team of eight. We're actually in the process of hiring three more individuals, so we will be in double digit I think that's been the most challenging part, the people part. They don't teach you that in school. The right people, finding the right people, building the culture, having this the resources, the environment. I think everyone on our team is phenomenal because they believe in what we do. And I think I never left Wall Street to make money. I think I would have
stayed there if I wanted to make the money. I really wanted to change the dynamics because you shouldn't have to go to Wall Street to get access to this information. How can we put it in our school systems? How can we talk about it at the dinner table holidays? And so we are right now a team of eight. I would say in the next thirty days we'll probably be a team of twelve people. But we are growing fast as a company. It's been an exciting journey amazing.
This was such a great story. Thank you so much for bringing it for us. I had zero financial education until I started working in this industry, and I had like clawmb my way up. So I'm so appreciative of what you guys are doing. Thank you so much. Ashley Fox, CEO and founder of Amplify, on her fintech startup help regular old people build, well, figure stuff out, really amazing stuff.
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