Global business news twenty four hours a day at Bloomberg dot com, the radio plus Globile lapt had on your radio. This is a Bloomberg Business Flash from Bloomberg World Headquarters. I'm Charlie Public, the SMP NEZDAK are all advancing and uh we are looking at an update for stocks. Let's head over to the First Word breaking news desk for today's afternoon call. There he is Bill Maloney. Good afternoon, Charlie.
Stocks have been strong from the start, with the Dow currently hired by a hundred and twenty six points, SIPs game twelve and NAZAC rises thirty two. Yelling seas rates rising gradually but avoided precise timing. The small gap six hundred is hired by nine points and the US ten yield at one point seven to per cent. Eight out of tennis to B sectors are higher, led by games and energy materials, and the financials, utilities and telecom fell down.
Transports rise forty seven, as a biotechs game forty nine, and the vix is hire by one percent. Dowlutes to the upside included Boeing, Nike, and Caterpillar Home Depot led to the downside at VFEL four eight percent on low survival data for lung cancer drug. We'll see if industry has gained eight percent was raised to buy over at c ls A live from the first breaking news tasks
on Bill Maloney. Charlie all right, thank you very much, Bill Maloney, and to hear live breaking news over your Bloomberg tipe squawk squ a w K on your terminal. I'm Charlie. That's a Bloomberg business flash. This is taking stock with Gathlee Mays and grim Box on Bloomberg Radio weakness and commodities. That was one of the biggest features helping to drive markets around the world as went into But our next guest says, now it looks like those
commodities may have definitively bottom. We're very happy to welcome back to the show, Jodi Gunnsberg. She's global head of Commodities at SMP DOWD Jones in diseased. Jody, welcome back. Thank you for having me. Well, I can start with oil because that is certainly the commodity on just about everybody's radar screen. Is consumers and investors crewed hitting a seventh month high in London on signs that the global gut that has been such a big downward pressure on
oil is contracting more quickly than projected. It is, and it's coming um, you know, as opposed to many people feeling like there's a slowdown in Chinese demand growth. That's really not driving oil UM. What we're watching is the key swing factors on the demand side is the strong demand um coming from India. In fact, it's taken over
China's post the biggest demand growth in the world. And on the supply side, we're really watching the declines in the US inventories, which are starting to happen as the producers have begun um cutting back. And more broadly, UH, I just want to you know, look at UH commodities, you know, losing one percent per day in the first
twelve trading days of SI. That was a lot because of this big focus on China, but they're now up almost thirty percent off the bottom you point out in a recent report, and they just posted their biggest three month gain of eighteen percent, the biggest in July two
thousand nine. So it's not just oil commodities broadly. Well, I would say that this could be considered a year of extremes of nothing else because um, as you just mentioned, yes, we had the worst start this year to any year, losing more than a percent a day in the first twelve dating trading days, and then off the bottom, it's been the fastest rebound ever. Uh. The index gained almost nine percent in just forty days off the bottom in January.
Now they're up almost thirty percent off the bottom and posted their biggest three month gain over eighteen percent since July two thousand nine when they returned. And the reason that this is so important is because we've only seen gains this big happen at other bottoms, and at all of the other bottoms we've seen gains this big, Well, it's very important. Commodities are now beating stocks, out performing
stocks for the first year since two thousand seven. Your research shows that when this starts happening, this trend can go for a while. It can. We saw the longest stretch of equity outperformance over commodities ending in that was eight years straight. The last time we saw that long of a stretch even close with seven years eighty from the eighties six. When the cycle switched for the following three years, commodities returned almost three outperforming stocks every year
through ninth nine. So is this a good time to invest in commodities? Well? As the uncertainty around stocks continue and investors might look for an asset class with potentially similar returns and risk profiles over the long term, it could be a good time to switch. And and particularly from the uncertainty is um around the Brexit vote, the week unemployment numbers, the flow GDP growth, these are all
concerning points that may continue to hurt stocks. But from the commodities perspective, there's still a minimum floor for the basic natural resources and seasonally as we enter the summer, the commodities tend to perform well from the increased consumption across the board, from food to construction to gasoline. And now we've got an extra added benefit from the post Almeno period. And Jennie the Faid Janet Ellen sounds like
she's in no hurry to raise the key rate. Ward McCarthy from Jeffreys on the show today saying that that that next rate increase doesn't come till September at the earliest. Does that help commodities says, to help this rally? Uh, what are the rates increase or not? Is mixed for commodities at this point. I don't think that it's a major factor driving commodities because it's been so well telegraphed um.
But historically, rising a rate or high interest rate environments are good for commodities because they increase the expected inflation plus the real rate of return, and they also add on to the collateral return from the commodities investments gold. What's gold going to do? Is gold going to hit
the previous highs? Well, investors love to feel the safety of gold in in the volatile times, and um not only for the factors that I had just mentioned, but um also the extra uncertainty and volatility coming around the election year is making the demand for gold pick up. And based on the history three again, if I look at the path index performance, it looks like gold could go well into the eighteen hundreds. Wow, and gold training
today's spot golds at twelve forty eight and change. So there's still a ways to potentially go if gold continue this pattern in the volatile time. Jodi Gunsberg, thank you so very much. Commodities are in rally mold, They're beating stocks, and this trend could continue for a while. She's Global head of Commodities at SMP Dow Jones in disease. Great show today, in a great couple of shows coming up Orlando, Florida, Pershing Insight sixteen. More than two thousand investment professionals around
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