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Red Sea, Markets, and Media

Dec 27, 202333 min
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Episode description

Brendan Murray, Trade Tsar at Bloomberg news, joins to discuss supply chain concerns amid uncertainty in the Middle East. Will Kennedy, Senior Executive Editor for Energy and Commodities with Bloomberg News, joins to talk moves in oil. Nancy Tengler, CEO and CIO at Laffer Tengler Investments joins to discuss markets and outlook for the Fed next week. Ian Whittaker, Managing Director and Owner at Liberty Sky Advisors, joins to discuss the media landscape and outlook for consolidation. Hosted by Paul Sweeney, Kailey Leinz, and Caroline Hyde.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcript

Speaker 1

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Speaker 2

Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney alongside my co host Matt Miller.

Speaker 1

Every business day we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along with essential market moven News.

Speaker 2

I'm the Bloomberg Markets podcast called Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and at Bloomberg dot Com Slash podcast. I think we need to go over to the Red Seat at the latest reporting on tensions in the Red Sea and its impact on the global oil. Brendan Murray joins us here Bloomberg News reporter out of London, Brendan, I'm seeing an article on the Bloomberg Colonel Bloomberg news hop.

ULG Lloyd, a big, big global shipper. They're continuing to reroute their ships away from the Red Sea.

Speaker 3

What's the latest right, Well, there still seems to be the risk of attacks sailing through the Red Sea. The latest was an MSc ship that was attacked yesterday. So hapag Lloyd is taking the stance that we're still going to divert around Africa. These that would not take the shortcut through the Suez Canal, seeing too much risk of

doing so. These ships are carrying anywhere from a half a billion dollars to a couple of billion dollars in cargo, not to mention the you know, the serious risks to their crews.

Speaker 4

So many of these big.

Speaker 3

Shipping companies are saying it's still too risky to take the chance. So they're they're making that extra twenty five percent a journey that's twenty five percent longer than it otherwise would be. They're still continuing to make that decision and the number of ships that are diverting is still.

Speaker 5

Rising well and Brendan, this is despite the US's efforts through a maritime task force to make sure that merchant vessels are protected, that any drones potentially shot down by or sent by the Hoothies would be shot down. So is anyone feeling protected enough to go through the Red Seat right now? Is there any real activity?

Speaker 4

Well heard?

Speaker 3

We had a statement also from Marisk, which is the number two global container shipping line, that said they're preparing to resume sailing across the Red Sea as soon as it's appropriate. Now when that is, we don't know, but at least they're sounding like they're willing to take that to take that trip as soon as they can get assurances that their ships will be secure. That was a turnaround from a week ago when they said they were calling on the US, in the UK and other countries

to provide more protection. So we're seeing sort of incremental steps back toward the direction of sailing through the Suez again, but still it's not happening on any large scale.

Speaker 2

I see Brendan from some Bloomberg Intelligence research that spot rates for container shipping have jumped twenty six percent over the past few weeks. Who pays that higher cost, Well, that the cargo.

Speaker 4

Owners pay that cost.

Speaker 3

These get added on and surcharges and other sort of incremental costs that the shipping lines charge them. Ultimately, the customers of transport services pay those and they in turn past those two consumers in one way or the other eventually.

So twenty six percent increase is not an enormous spike higher when you look at shipping rates have plunged seventy five percent this year, but it's still a turnaround from the steady erod of freight rates that we've seen throughout the year, and one that the shipping companies frankly would welcome. They can't really make money at rates the way they were three weeks ago, but now they're kind of back in the profit making zone.

Speaker 5

So Brendan, obviously there's a cost calculation here in terms of what the impact of this waterway, which is so

crucial in terms of maritrine trade being blocked, is. But it also to your point you were making earlier about the time it takes to go around the coast of Africa instead, is about time, especially when we think about how supply chains were so snarled back during the heart of COVID days, are we going to see any of that backups and ports as all of these ships are taking longer to arrive at their destinations or is it likely to be a bit smoother than we experienced a few years ago.

Speaker 3

Well, it all depends on how long this lasts. I mean, we're seeing hundreds and hundreds of ships diverting. Now those are all going to be late in their ports of the original ports of destination. All that cargo is going to have to be rerouted new schedules for for delivery and pick up with trucks and trains, and so we'll see an initial jolt to supply chains. But in truth, supply chains have been pretty resilient. They and absorbed a

lot of these, even the biggest shocks. So we'll we'll see some initial initial disruptions uh in the in the coming weeks, and if it gets resolved and shipping continues through the Suez Canal, the likelihood is this won't leave a huge, huge dent on the on the global economy or global trade more broadly, But initially it's going to be painful, especially come January, when one of the peak shipping seasons of the year happens as retailers look to restock after the holidays.

Speaker 2

Brendan Ultimately, who decides when it is safe to transit the Red Sea is that the US Navy is the shipping companies themselves who decides.

Speaker 3

Well, it sounds like the shipping companies themselves are making this decision based based in large part on the signals they're getting from the forces in the area.

Speaker 4

Uh.

Speaker 3

It's there are a few containerships going through. Uh and you know, as we saw yesterday with the MSc ship that you know, they're they're getting attacked by drones and rockets and other things. Uh So the shipping companies, though, are taking their queue from their insurance companies that are saying, look, it's it's it's too it's too costly for us, it's going to be too We're going to raise your premium

if you want to do that. So it's a there's a trade off that they're that they're weighing, and ultimately, uh, you know, higher higher insurance costs will will sort of dictate some of those decisions.

Speaker 2

All right.

Speaker 5

Brendan Murray, thanks so much for joining us from London. He is our trades are here at Bloomberg. I love this art. Those are the best titles in the building.

Speaker 6

You're listening to the team kenjer Live program Bloomberg Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business app, or listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts.

Speaker 5

Another good title though is executive editor, and I'm pleased to say our your executive editor for Energy in Commodities. Will Kennedy is joining us now also from London, to talk through how this is translating into oil markets. It's actually interesting, Will, You had oil closing at the highest level in about a month yesterday, coming off those levels a touch today, we're now at eighty dollars and sixty

five cents for a barrel of Brent crude. Should we be expecting this to resonate more with the oil market or traders just expecting that this is going to be a very short term impact that ultimately doesn't fundamentally change anything that much.

Speaker 4

Good morning, Katy. I think it has had an impact, to be honest. Oil prices are high where they were. They fallen really quite sharply early in December, and they've rallied against this news. In the Red Sea. Let's still below where they were at the beginning of the four when they were close to one hundred dollars, but they have run it. I think it does make people nervous. It makes people nervous that the conflicts that we're seeing

in the Middle East could spread. Clearly the huts who are responsible for this attacks as sponsored by a rob as is the mass in the gards of strips, so that wider regional tension remains, and it does make oil traders nervous. But I think there are a couple of reasons why the reaction perhaps hasn't been stronger. Oral markets remain fairly well supplied globally, and a lot of the oil coming through the Red Sea is destined for customer.

Is Russian oil destined Vasia, and it's unlikely the Russian oal perhaps would be a target of these attacks, So there are reasons why they that people aren't so nervous

about oil tankers in the Red Sea. And finally, Saudi Arabia and its allies of OPEK, especially their moments, retain a good amount of spare capacity, which means that if the situation were to worse and that there are policy responsibles that OPEC could make, And I think that means that some of the sting of geopolitics or oil prices is removed at the moment.

Speaker 2

Well before this latest flare up in the Red Sea oil preces had been trading Lord and WTI crude oil was below seventy Where is the market now in terms of assessing demand here? It appears that the US economy at least may be in for a soft landing. Where's the sense of demand over the next three to six to twelve months.

Speaker 4

Yeah, I think we should start that conversation ball by talking about demand this year, which has been a lot stronger than many people expected. It'd be bounded infamily sharply in China, as China was the last major economy to come out of COVID, It's been very healthy in the United States. As you say, the economy continues to do well. People continue to drive, and they continue to demand goods

that are transported by trucks. I think that demand has been much stronger than many people expected, and if the economy does have that soft landing, there's every reason to expect that demand will continue to be fairly strong. It might not be as strong as I have been this year, because I think that coming out of COVID in China effect was particularly strong. We had that really big snapback. But you know, we may add more than a million

pounds a year day next year. That's the sort of forecast that you were looking at, And that's a fairly healthy increase in demand by historical standards. So the question then becomes what happens with supply and is it more than matched with supply and that balance. But I think you'll like to point out for that as people think about the market next year, that strength in demand is one of the key questions that they're thinking about.

Speaker 5

But to your point, will about supply, We've obviously learned within the last several weeks that shaled this year in the US far exceeded expectations in terms of what they were able to produce in twenty twenty three. It's OPEC really that has been more restrictive. The saudis really the ones leading that is, they would like to keep prices elevated.

If indeed that demand picture you're painting does come true in twenty twenty four and you see an uptick in demand, should we expect that OPA is necessarily going to respond by putting more out there on the market. Are they likely to try to keep things as tight as possible, so.

Speaker 4

They agreed to they agree to cut more in the recent meeting in the beginning of December, and the Saudis themselves were not contributing to that, but other members agree to pair that production or fore go increases that they had already agreed in the case of they liked our members. I think what that means is that Opek will want to say that to see that play out in the first quarter. When we last spoke to the Saudi Energy minister, he said they were willing to keep those curves in

place beyond the first quarter to see demand titan. So I think when you put that together, they are likely to put more oil in the market in the short term. They really would like to see these cuts work and they would like to see the market tightened, so they will be patient to wait for that to happen before they before they think about putting many more well back into the market.

Speaker 2

Despite some of the at least warmer temperatures here in the US, we are in peak heating season. Here will goes the sense how things are in Europe turned out better than expected last winter. What's the situation for this winter?

Speaker 4

Yeah, we haven't. We've had a bit of cold winter. I mean here in the UK it's been an incredibly warm, wet and windy winter. And that kind of weather means that energy supplies are fairly ample for two reasons. One, it doesn't put a huge strain on gas demand because people aren't needing it to heat their homes or heating

all demand. And two, all this wind means that we're generating a huge amount of power through wind through the you know, I think I looked this morning and the UK was producing more than sixty percent of its power demand through wind turbines. So you put that together and it means that if that weather continues, we should come through this winter in fairly good shape. And in fact, people are fairly confident this winter wold be too bad.

There are above average levels of gas supply and as we say, we haven't had a big coal slap yet, but that could of course change weather is under all right.

Speaker 2

Well, Kennedy, thank you so much.

Speaker 3

We appreciate it.

Speaker 4

Well.

Speaker 2

Kennedy, Senior Managing editor over there in lundon covering all things on the energy front.

Speaker 6

You're listening to the tape Cat's are Live program Bloomberg Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

Speaker 7

Really, there is still so much geopolitics a play trade to be digesting all of it and it's impact on the market.

Speaker 2

Yeah, we are seeing yields move though. We've got the ten year treasury off about eight basis points three point eight one percent. Boy, it wasn't that long ago we had the tenure was trading north of five percent there, So big big move in racers saying mortgage rates come down. That was important for Kaylee Lions as she's house hunting and she liked to see those rates come down even more.

Let's get a sense of maybe where these markets are going, because it's been such a move just over the last seven eight nine weeks here, big big moves up in the acquity markets, moves down in yields. I'm not sure how many people kind of saw that on their Bingo card. But Nancy Tangler joins us. She's the CIO of Laffer Tangler investments joining us via zoom here. Nancy, boy, this move we've had over the last eight nine weeks has really been something to marvel at. What do you make of it?

Speaker 8

Well, I love the bingo card analogy. I never had much luck with that myself, But yeah, I think a couple things.

Speaker 4

Paul.

Speaker 8

We wrote a piece on October thirty first that said opportunity in every difficulty, And at the beginning of last year we wrote a piece that said of this year that we thought investors were being way too pessimistic and that we expected to see the markets do much better than most thought. We don't do market forecasts for the year end, but we did say in the October thirty one piece we thought we'd see a rally and not expecting this much of a rally. To be sure, I think you've got a lot.

Speaker 4

Of things going on.

Speaker 8

It's not just the FED, it's you know, the money on the sidelines, it's creeping in window dressing. But I do think that stocks, if you look at the multiple you're at fifteen times fifteen point three times S and p X fang with fang you're at seventeen times next year's earnings, that that is not super lofty, and I think we have the opportunity to move up from here with some choppiness in the first quarter.

Speaker 7

I always love Nancy your notes in particular, and I think back to sort of the October thirty first note. I think back to some of the quotes you use in Winston Churchill in particular, you say, a pessimists is the difficulty and every opportunity, and optimisty is the opportunity and every difficulty. So be the optimist, and I know you are one. What are some of the difficulties that you're going to be keeping a keen eye on as you try and assert some of the optimism.

Speaker 8

Well, I love your Winston Churchill, Caroline, so I quote him at every opportunity.

Speaker 9

Yeah.

Speaker 8

So, I think one of the biggest concerns is is inflation licks. Now we know that the core number, the PCE number, has been coming down, but the sticky inflation number at per the Atlanta feed is still very high. And if you look at historical numbers back in the seventies and period where we had inflation restart, it's pretty positively correlated. Now we're at the turning point. So whether

or not that happens remains to be seen. But I think the other thing I'm quite concerned about is the Red Sea And if you look at the good news in the PMIS, it's that delivery times have come down, but they're about to go up if we have to continue to go in alternate routes for shipping. So that's something on our radar. We're also we're not concerned about earnings. We think margins are going to continue to improve. That was the good news story in the second half of

this year, and so we think that continues. Managements have done an excellent job because most of them refinanced before rates went up, But I haven't been particularly complementary of the FED, and they can still screw this up.

Speaker 7

In my view, we are going to go into Red Sea in a moment, but I want to go back to some of the ex I'm so pleased you bring to our technology shows on the odd occasion that we're lucky enough to welcome you on NANCI. You are someone who you might not think that the Fed's always doing that great, but you are pretty focused on certain leadership, and you've called out certain tech companies are done particularly

well in this environment. What of breadth in technology. You've been trying to say, Look, it's not just all about these seven killer stocks. There are others to be had. Do you still believe in that area being able to lead US high for twenty twenty four?

Speaker 8

I do, Caroline. The total addressable market for generative AI cloud digital transition is enormous. It's in the trillions of dollars, and so the question becomes, who are going to be the leader or who are going to be the survivors and the thrivers in this environment. We still think you want to own a couple of the fang names, but there are much broader places to be focused on some old economy tech like Oracle. I don't know, I call

Broadcom the poor man's Nvidia. That that is one place that we think still has plenty of room to run. We've started looking at you new names, which you can't talk about because we're in the process of buying them, but I shortly talk about them. And I think you want to remain overweight this group, but we are also overweight industrials. And our big move at the end in the fall of twenty twenty two was to add to consumer discretionary in tech, and those two have been two

of the three best performing sectors this year. I think there's still opportunities in consumer discretionary as well.

Speaker 2

Well, that's kind of where I wanted to go, Nancy, because it may surprise you to find out that I am not long that magnificent socks seven stocks in twenty twenty three. So what do I do in twenty four. Do I try to chase those names a big tech growth or do I, I don't know, try to find some value somewhere else.

Speaker 8

Well, Paul, you know what's so interesting is that if you look at the valuations compared to the nineties, and I think when I was on with you last Caroline, I talked about that this market is an analog or the nineties is an analog to this market. A lot of similarities in terms of inflation, high rates and inverted yield curve, of soft landing a war, and those valuations. I mean, all you have to do is look at Microsoft.

It was training at the end of the nineties at fifty plus times peak earnings and it's currently at somewhere between twenty eight and thirty times forward earnings. These are not peak earnings for the company. So I think there are spots like I'm less enamored though I know people love Meta. It's not one of our top picks, But would I continue to add to Microsoft here or Amazon is a name that we think is probably our top pick in that space for next year. Yeah, I think

you use weakness and you just be disciplined. You don't chase any of them. The last thing I'll say is, if you look at Nvidia on a forward multiple basis, it's pretty cheap compared to what you might think since the stock has doubled. It's in the the mid twenty five range. So I think those are all names that you can use as opportunistically to round out holdings. Don't

chase anything because the market will pull back. We'll get a correction, and that's when you step in and buy with you know, both hands.

Speaker 2

Correction, Nancy, to the extent we want to buy with both hands at some point this year. Will it be earnings based? I mean, you look at the S and P five hundred. Earnings expectations are about twelve to thirteen percent for twenty twenty four. It feels a little frothy to me. Do you think there's material earnings risk in this market?

Speaker 4

Well?

Speaker 8

What I well, I think the dollars coming down, so that will help some of the multinationals. I think it will con I mean it has come down, it will continue to come down. But I'm not sure about that because if you look at the companies that we've just been talking about, they have not only been guiding up, but they've been expanding margins. I mean, there will be

companies that miss earnings and they will be punished. Oracle just missed guidance and so it was punished, and we use that as an opportunity to add to holdings because we think long term, these are the companies that you want to own in a slowing growth environment and a tight labor market where technology spend is how companies get productivity. So I think we may be surprised, but remember, and you know this is what I do. Analysts are wrong to the tune of about two thirds of the time.

Speaker 9

It's a quarter.

Speaker 8

So we know to the upside and the downside. So I think what you have to just be ready to do is you have your list, and if they do disappoint, you step in and you add to those names.

Speaker 7

Naci Tangler, it is always such a joy to have you on the show with our CIO of Lafatanga Investments, wishing you a wonderful new year, and I'm sure we'll be having you across our network soon in January.

Speaker 6

You're listening to the tape canser our live program Bloomberg Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

Speaker 2

Boy. We were just talking about the value of sports, and it's just some red headline across the Bloomberg terminal. NBA approves Dallas Maverick's sale to Miriam Adelson. That is the from the gaming Adlson family in Vegas. So again a big news, big dollars, and that's kind of what we're seeing in sports, no doubt about it. Let's bring in someone I've known for a long time and one of the smartest voices in the global media space, Ian Whitaker,

Managing director and owner at Liberty Sky Advisors. He's based in London. So let's start with kind of the number one issue I think for most investors out look at global media, it's like, what's the new world order? It's streaming, I guess, But who are the companies that can survive this? How do you think this is going to plug out in twenty twenty four?

Speaker 9

Yeah, well, thanks very for the very kind words. I mean, I think you have to go back to the fundamentals here. If you look who's going to be the ultimate winners of this game, I think he is going to be the tech company simply because they have the deep pockets

that the other players do not. I think what you're going to find is that some of the players, like a Disney, a Comcast, probably also Warner, will have to now stay in the streaming market because essentially those companies what they made was a big, big strategic mistake several years ago, which is really to go in all in on streaming, and I think, you know the consequences of

that are still rippling through the market. I think there will have to be consolidation that will eventually come through. I think Warner power Mount deal possibly gets some with the next twelve months, so I'd be slightly longer with that. But I would say in terms of who who has deep pockets. It's really the Apples, the Amazons and so forth.

One thing I would say, and I think this is important because all these streaming companies, and I think it's one of the other big mistakes that they also made as well. They looked at the world from a very US centric point of view and they thought that essentially, you know, the dynamics.

Speaker 4

Of what would work in the US would.

Speaker 9

Work globally, and therefore it made sense to go after big subscribing numbers globally. It doesn't Europe pass structurally lower penetration, structly lower RPO the the US market, And if you look what's happened with the Premier League rights for example, sort of you're talking there about the NBA rights and what's happening. None of the tech companies actually sort of bit aggressively for the Premier League rightes in the UK.

The dynamics, the economics of it just don't work. So I think what we're going to see here is increasingly with streaming that effectively, there's going to be the realization that different models work in different geographical markets.

Speaker 2

So Ian, you know, I've pitched every tech company, basically every media company that's out there for twenty five years and I've gotten no bites whatsoever. Really, you know, I'm wondering if they can just stay on the sidelines and let some of these media companies just beat each other over the head and then pick up the content on the cheap. I'm just not sure the appetite for Silicon value to come into Hollywood.

Speaker 9

Yeah, I think that's I think that's a very good point. If you look at when if you look at the various maneuvers that have gone on Apple, Essentially, yes, it's got into films, so it's been very selective. Amazon bought MGM, but that hasn't been a major push that has come through. Interesting one would be what Netflix would do. I mean, for me, sort of Netflix joining in the Powermount apposition

talks and makes sense for Netflix. There's a number of sort of areas that a tie in there would actually help out on things. The analogy I've used in the past, I've been using this for several years now, is that what you've gotten streaming is if you want a historical analogy, it's sort of akin to World War One. But what you've got is that you've got the major media companies.

As you say, essentially bashing each other over the heads, really exhausting themselves into a state where quite frankly, it's very very hard to actually make major games and actually sort of wink convincingly. And then if you look actually what happened in World War One, the Americans came in and effectively sort of of one being die to the

last players in the game. And that's essentially where we are with the tech companies now that the Apples, the Amazons, the Googles, and so forth, particularly in the US market when it comes to sports, Yeah, they really now sort of let everyone else exhaust them. I can now just march in and really take up the spoils. So I think, particularly in the US, I would say the tech companies you would say, would be the ultimate winners. I think when it's globally, I think the picture is a lot more.

It's a lot more varied. Europe, for example, I think the freeware broadcast is there. Yet there are different viewing habits, there's different ways of paying for PATV and so forth. But I think most of the major established media companies really made a massive strategic Kevin is something I've been saying for several years in going full on into the streaming model, which quite frankly destroyed a lot of the infrastructure that had worked so well for several decades.

Speaker 7

Okay, So, playing devil's advocate, you sit down with a CEO of the legacy media companies. Many of them would say, look, from a standing start, I've now built a business that's several billions. Yes, you might not say streaming is working, but I've managed to make it a significant revenue driver. What would you say to that.

Speaker 9

Well, it may be a significant revenue, but from an analyst, you know, from an analytical standpoint, financial market standpoint, what people care about the profits? Yeah, and you look at the courting basis. You've got Warner, which is made a slight profit. Netflix, as you say, is the only one that so far has managed to make a consistent operating

profit moving forwards and so on. But it's free cash flow isn't particularly sort of, I mean, it's okay, but when you look against its peers, definitely not huge and so forth. I think you've got sort of You've got several ways you can approach this. You can say, look, we made a fundamental strategic error here in really going for long into streaming we now actually have the courage to step back and say, you know what, maybe maybe

we actually need to exit this game. For me, the smartest player when it came the smartest media company when it came to what happened with streaming with Sony, Yeah, and Sony decided we're not getting involved. We're just going to license our contents to everyone else. An effective day with the arms dealer ian.

Speaker 7

Yeah, to use that analogy, though, I've heard that lot of late be an arms dealer, be an arms dealer. A lot of these companies don't want to be arms dealer. They don't think that it's lucrative enough. They don't want to just be supplying content. Why would they not want that?

Speaker 4

Well, I think a.

Speaker 9

Lot of it is essentially they've been invested in the streaming pattern. They've said, they've gone down for several years now down this route. As you say, they've built an infrastructure. They in many cases they realign their companies really to focus on primarily.

Speaker 4

On the streaming operations and so forth.

Speaker 9

It's a very very hard job for companies to step back and say, you know what, maybe we made a mistake here, Maybe we need to re align again. Shareholders don't like it. Investors don't like it, Yeah, simply because it raises questions about the quality of the management and the decisions they've taken as well. I think one way to look at this is to say, yeah, flip it round. What exactly is going to change with the streaming model that will suddenly make it a hugely more profitable model.

And the question is, when you look at things at the moment, you can't really look at anything that will say there's a real.

Speaker 4

Game changer here.

Speaker 2

All right, Well, here's a game changer in Bloomberg Intelligence is that with some research saying with around six billion dollars in estimated twenty twenty four losses, Apple TV Plus will lose eighty percent more on its streaming business than Disney Paramount, NBC, and Warner Brothers Discovery combined. So you talk about an mptity that can spend like crazy and just let everybody else kind of fall by the wayside.

So Ian I got to ask you, when you talk to institutional investors, why is anybody buying any of these big media names. I just don't get it.

Speaker 9

Well, I think what you've got, I mean, it's a very good question. I think there are several elements here. If you look particularly at the US media companies, they do have other assets that are performing well. Disney, for example, theme parks theme parks sector have done very well. They do have very very good historical content assets. And is to go back to the point before about being the arms dealer. You know what you've got to hear if you look, for example, in terms of streaming, it's always

the old shows that seem to perform the best. The new shows effectively are you know, they come out, they get lauded, and then they get forgotten off and within six to nine.

Speaker 7

Months we're all back to listening to suits again on a different type.

Speaker 9

Of device exactly. And that's the whole point. And I think for what you've got for many of these play for many investors here is what they're thinking is at some point it will all come out right. And the problem becomes with that is that it doesn't come out right automatically. You've got to take the companies and the managements and they've actually got to take active measures to make sure that they go down in the right route.

And I look at all the certainly I look at the legacy media companies and I look at what they're doing at the moment. I think, you know, Water Discovery, I think you know they they have started to sort of go on the right route by saying, Okay, we won't let the streaming tail wag the the WBD dog. I think Comcast has its broadband business, and that's different. I look at Disney, I think strategically and in terms of some of the decisions they've made, they really been

poured in several different directions. And I look at Powermount, I just think, as an independent sort of entity, how does that actually sort of survive in the certainly in the streaming anyway, How does the survivor over the longer term?

Speaker 4

Yep.

Speaker 9

Personally, I also think there's a question mark over here over Netflix. Yes, Netflix has done very well. It's making profits, it is, it's got a global presence, but quite frankly, when you look at his historical content, it doesn't really have that much.

Speaker 4

This is why I made the.

Speaker 9

Point before about maybe Netflix looking at Powermount, and again I go to this sort of total addressful market picture if you look accord to Canto in the US as for penetration is probably around eighty five eighty six percent. If you look at Europe, there are clear signs that is even in the most markets you know, it's flatlining around sixty five percent in somewhere like the UK, aust as well. And this is the other thing that gets

missed with these streaming models. It's not just about subscriber numbers, it's about the average revenue per user, and that is much lower outside the US. So again you've got those dynamics as well.

Speaker 2

Ian, great stuff. Thanks thanks for breaking it down for US. Ian Whittaker, Managing director and owner at Liberty Skuy Advisors over in London. Been covered in the media industry for Decades's got great perspective. Appreciate getting a few minutes of his time.

Speaker 1

Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcasts. You can subscribe and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter at Matt Miller nineteen seventy three.

Speaker 2

And I'm Paul Sweeney. I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio.

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