Predicteform's Zucker Favors Nyquist, Outwork for Derby (Audio)

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to barrel at forty four seventy one. It's about old is of eighteen dollars announced at the Tenure Treasury is down nine thirty seconds with the yield of one point seven And that's a Bloomberg business flash. Yes, getting ready for the one and forty second running of the Kentucky Derby that will be tomorrow at Churchill Downs in Kentucky. Here to help us understand the race and maybe help us select the winner is Dan Zucker. He is the co founder of predict form dot com. He's joining us

from blue Chip Farm in Wallkill, New York. And joining me here in the studio is Gary Edel. He's a Bloomberg staffer and a bit of a racing enthusiast and a handicapping tournament player. Gentlemen, great to have you with us here, Dan Zucker, I want you to begin by just explaining for people that may not be horse race racing of ficionados, twenty horses. That sounds like a lot of horse flesh on the on the track. Yeah, sure, as Tim and Gary, how are you, my friends? That's

the number that you get with the Kentucky Derby. It's the it's the one race a year where you see twenty horses and it it certainly does make for traffic problems. You know, a lot of a lot of contact and banging around throughout the race. We'll tell us about the horses, because I know that you have some favorites, and I'm wondering if you could tell us a little bit about something called a pace figure and how that figures into

your calculations. Sure well, and I was gonna say, you know, we maybe maybe before we dive into the pace figure. I just found that, you know, when you mentioned the twenty horses. Something that's really interesting this year, and Gary, you probably noticed this is there are three stallions that represent half the field. It's the three stack. Two stallions

each have three three offspring running. One stallion's name is Uncle Moe, the other stallion's name is Tappit, and a third stallion named giants Causeway has two suns as well as a great grandson. Uh another stallion named as Candia.

His father is Giant's Causeway. So in essence, you have three stallions representing nine horses, which is a really rare thing in a in a race like this, So it's kind of like it's all in the family, all right, Gary, So tell us a little bit about how you approach handicapping a race like the Derby, you know it, as Dan has started off with, I like looking at the pace. It's just like if you're running a track race, you

have everyone has different styles of running. You have some track people, you have some runners that like to go out to the lead, some people like to go a new pack, some people like to just sit back and let the speed go and just close on them. So I like to really analyze the race looking at pace figures. And I know one of the things that I love about Dance product is he goes really deep into pace figures and his specialty is identifying the E two. What's

the E two paste? Dan Sucker, what explain? How do you what is a pace figure? Well, so, essentially like in horse racing, horses are clothed at the quarter mile, a half mile, the mile, and then at the end of the race. And we evaluate races a race with generation, and we look at a horse's speed throughout the race, whether a horse is accelerating or decelerating. And grass races, horses start slow and they wind up going much faster at the end, whereas in dirt racing it's a game

of deceleration. The first quarter is always faster than the second quarter, which is faster than the third quarter, which is faster than the end of the race. So we look at we have to look at pace in analyzing the race to determine whether or not, you know, as Gary mentioned, the horses up front will be able to hold on, or whether it's likely that somebody from way off the pace will come up at the very end.

So can you tell us the horses that you believe are gard to perform the best based on this pace figure analysis? Yeah, well, I mean I'll kind of give you are are quick fifty foot level analysis and then you know you can go to kind of Garry to see where he sits. But from our perspective, um, there are two main horses in here that look to be better than the rest of the field. The first one is nye Quist, who is the big favorite, um, you know, undefeated seven for seven and he comes into the race

off a very strong last race. The second horse is called Outwork, ironically enough, there both by Uncle Mo and Uncle mos Stallion. Uncle Mo's father was Indian Charlie. The big knock on Indian Charlie, which then filters down to both of his sons, is that no Indian Charlie has ever won a race going a mile and a quarter,

so it's something new for the family. The other horse that we have would be outworked, and he's got Johnny Laska is one of the benefest riders in the country, comes from the best trainer in the country and Todd Fletcher, and he's likely to sit just off the pace, beyond

the front. So if you're watching the race on television, the horses that were projecting are gonna win are going to be in the front of the pace most to the race where they're gonna be fifty different camera angles because it's gonna be broadcast on NBC of course, so that'll be around five fifty Eastern time tomorrow, Gary. So, based on the information that you've been able to assemble, do you concur with what Dan Zucker is saying about

the pace of the race. Well, first off, I've been in quite a few tournaments with Dan, and if Dan says something, I'm listening because he knows this stuff. And one of the things I find interesting in this race is the lack of speed, and that's what's gonna make this race very hard to handicap. In my opinion, last year you had basically had the horses that came in first, second and third running first, second and third around the

track the whole way. This year, we really don't have that much speed, and that's gonna hinder a lot of the horses coming from behind. I really like I'm going with Dan with Outwork. I know Dave Papa Papa Dulas from Bloomberg also was talking about at Work as a really good value play. I'm gonna also use um exaggerator. I think he has that same type of running style. He's gonna just sit in midpack. Winner of the Santa

Anita Dert exactly. He's gonna sit midpack, and I think when the upfront horses thought to die, he's gonna make his move. Uh eight rated at eight to one. Out Work at fifteen to one, a night quest, as you said, the favorite three to one, and we gotta go with value. So I'll probably be looking at out the out myself, all right. Thanks very much, darry edel joining us a Bloomberg staffer and enthusiast when it comes to handicapping and the handicapped tournaments are thanks also to Dan Zucker Co

founder predict form dot com. Remember the Derby is tomorrow in Churchill Downs. This is Bloomberg Radio. Coming up on taking Stock. A disappointing payroll report from the Department of Labor. Does this signal a greater downturn in hiring? We'll find out. That's next on taking Stock.