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You're listening to Taking Stock with Kathleen Hayes and Pim Fox on Bloomberg Radio. Grexits remain? Will the UK vote to leave the European Union just one week from today, and if they do, what does it mean not only for the United Kingdom but for the rest of Europe. Jacob Kirkgard joined US now senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, d C. He has been writing a great deal about fears over immigration and
what they and how they play into this Brexit vote. Jacob, welcome, great to be here, but I actually want to start by asking you, um, the death of UK opposition Labor Party lawmaker Joe Cox today, killed by a man who is in favor of leaving the European Union. Uh does this Do you think this impact sentiment in the UK at all on this vote? Oh? I don't think there's any doubt that it will. I mean, I think we we just have to be running the risk of being
very cynical here. But you have a forty two year old, very photogenic mother of two killed as part of a political process in a country that is highly unaccustomed to political violence. So I think you'll have an enormous impact. Frankly, I think it would be very difficult to restart the campaigning again. You know, maybe after the weekend or something
like that without continuingly coming back to this issue. And it will also, in my opinion therefore drive turnout at the campaign on next to Thursday, because people will feel very emotional about it. So I think this is this is a really really big deal for this campaign. Jacob paint as a scenario of leaving and staying and what happens to the British economy in both scenarios, um well, starting with the easiest of the two scenarios, which will
be if Britain votes to remain. In that case, I would predict basically the majority of the status quo UH continues. I think you would see a slight bounce back in the second half of this year by the UK economy. You will have a sort of pent up investments being released. You would see a swing back in the value of the pound and and equities etcetera, which have obviously been
weighed down by uncertainty. But at the same time, I think the reality is that this campaign will have, especially after today's tragic events, will have made or or made the country split even more over the issue of immigration, and that includes both the Conservative and the Labor Party. So fundamentally, in the long run, the UK will have
become a more difficult place to govern after this campaign. UM. Now, if there is a vote to leave UH, then I am certainly in the camp who believes that this is a very bad economic news for the UK, because I
believe two things will happen. First of all, given that a Leave victory will be driven predominantly by anti immigration sentiment UH, and that the lead campaign have essentially locked themselves into a future, depending on who you ask there of reducing net migration to the UK of between seventy to UH. That is a low immigration future for the UK, which is means is very bad for growth UH and
a lot of other things in the UK. Secondly, by focusing so much on immigration, the UK has essentially ruled out the possibility of securing a free trade agreement or access to the internal market or any broader economic RelA relationship would the rest of the EU, because the one of the demands from the EU faily be that UH
you migration be allowed to continue. UH. So this is a situation where, probably after about two years of UH, potentially like the futile negotiations, the UK would simply drop out of the EU and then simply trade with the rest of the EU as any other member of the w t O. So, Jacob, you know you say this is primarily driven by an immigration anti immigration movement. However, this has been going on for at least what at least a decade, if not a generation. There had been
your skeptics for a long time. There have been many people not just in in UH, in London or in the UK who worry about sovereignty and actually trying to turn over some power over the laws of your of your land to a body that is not really your government. I mean, is it really just immigration? I mean, or do you think you've gotten as far if it were, or are you saying, oh, this is the thing that really heated it up lately. Yeah, No, this is essentially
the fuel. Anti immigration sentiment is the fuel that has made this referendum close. You're absolutely right that there has always been ever since the UK joined, a significant part of the UK UH population and the representatives that have been very strongly against you membership, but they have never come close to being the majority. That is something that is relatively recent and in my opinion, is overwhelmingly driven by UH anti immigrant sentiment in significant parts of the
UK population. Thank you very much for sharing your thoughts with us. Jacob Curecard is a Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, d C. You can follow him on Twitter at j F Kirker Guard and we want to thank him for his perspective on what may or may not happen. We know that Brexit is a vote that we will all be watching. We will be covering it around the clock. UH twenty three of June voters in the United Kingdom go to the polls.
I know, Kathleen, you've been looking at what's happening to the US treasury market as a result of people mind safety. Right now, the yield on the tenures one point five seven the yield on the thirty years two point three nine percent. You're listening to taking stock on Bloomberg Radio. Op Co Health. It is a very successful biotech and pharmaceutical company started by a doctor who has become a billionaire. Philip Frost coming up on taking stock on Bloomberg Radio.