Nanos on Canada's Economy (Audio)

follow them on Twitter at Nick Nanos. And his first company that sort of really got him going in terms of doing surveys and research was when Staples approached him as a young man to have to have them him do some work for them. And you've grown so much. Nick, Welcome to taking Stock. It's great to join you. We're gonna talk about elections in the US and how that could affect what's happening in Canada, the Canadian economy in particular.

I'd like to step back for a minute though, because one of the things um that you do is the Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index. How do Canadians feel about their own present and future when it comes to the economy right now. Well, it's interesting when we look at the Bloomberg Nanos Confidence Index, and that's tracked every week. What we've seen in the last number of weeks is a significant drop in the proportion of Canadians that are

confident about the value of real estate. And you know what, in Canada, real estate has been that one piece of good news for Canadians, regardless of what's happened in the market, regardless of the price of oil they've held onto. You know what, doesn't matter what happens. The value of my home will either keep its value or it will go up. We've seen basically a six year high and negative views

on real estate just in the last three weeks. And this has coincidentally been with the Province of British Columbia out west saying that putting a chill on foreign buyers of real estate. So get a load of that. So not great news on that front. So foreign buyers, let's say in Vancouver, for example, tell me about what's going on with consumer debt and the high deficits provincial debt.

I mean, the head wins some of the things that Canada faces, and then maybe relate that to what you'd like to, uh see as a result of maybe the US election for Canada. You know, the interesting thing is that, you know, when we survey Canadians, you know, the federal the new liberal Justin Trudeau government has taken on a larger deficit than planned during the election. Canadians are okay with that, but if there's a significant increase in the

in the national deficit, it will be tough news. Also, recently, very interestingly, there's a new child benefit tax that has been kind of reigning checks in Canada right across the border. You know, the government wants to think that this is stimulus, that if people have these new checks in their pocket, that they're going to spend more money on new spending. But in a recent Bloomberg Nanal survey that we've just released in the last few days, only sixteen cents on

the dollar is going to go towards new spending. Canadians are taking that check and they're saving it, They're paying bills, they're paying down their debts, so not as much of a mulists at this point. From that new child benefit tax that the Liberals are hoping to kind of jump start the Canadian economy. That sounds like what happened in the US coming out of our Great recession and the financial crisis. People paid down a lot of debt. That

certainly creates a good stable foundation. When you look at the election, you look at Hillary Clinton, you look at Donald Trump, you see what Canada needs. We just heard Jim Prentice, from our Premier of Alberta, tell us that Canada needs access to global markets, needs pipelines. What what what are you looking for anticipating in the US elections and the impact on Canada. Well, Canadians are fixated on the US presidential election. It's kind of like listening to

your neighbors family argue loudly. You're attracted and repelled, and then afterwards you're worried about what it means to you. Right, That's that's basically kind of in a nutshell, you know for Canadians. U s presidential elections usually don't deal with issues that affect Canada. But the border, you know, we talked about the border with Mexico and Canada that Trump has put on the table and free trade. You know, he's put about NAFTA and potentially tearing up or renegotiating NAFTA.

So for the first time in history. I would say the US president presidential election has had issues that Canadians

are tuned into. And uh, you know, if I have if I have a prediction, uh you know, say, for example, if there's a Donald Trump win, we'll probably have a thirty day consumer confidence chill as Canadians wonder what's gonna happen in AFTA, what's going to happen in the border, because you know, here's a little factoid for Bloomberg listeners of Canadians live within one hour of the US border, so we are fixated on that U s border and

moving across that border. So depending on the outcome, we could have a significant kind of what I'll say, confidence hit in Canada come November, depending on who wins the presidential race. Speak if you can about the potential for a change in energy policy in the United States and

how that might affect Canada. You know, the interesting thing is, for a polling that we do with the State University of New York, about more than eight out of every ten Americans and eight out of every ten Canadians want cooperation on energy issues and see kind of a continental market and but kind of Canadians like Americans want to have kind of what i'll say, environmental stewardship for it

to be environmentally responsible. You know, the Liberal government has a very in Canada, has a very tall order to kind of fulfill because they've gone hard on the environment and it's made kind of Western Canada very nervous because of that flat price of a barrel of oil and jobs that have been lost. So you know, I think probably what we're gonna what we're gonna expect is, you know,

the Liberals to kind of deliver on one pipeline. But that just means there's a pipeline, doesn't mean there'll be anything in it, because only the market will decide what happens once the pipeline is there. Well done, Thanks very much. And Nick nanos He is the chairman of Nanos, a research group of companies Global Fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. You're listening to taking Stock at the fourth Annual Canadian Fixed Income Conference. This is Bloomberg