Most Employers Won't Be Covid Testing Returning Workers

and on Bloomberg dot com. Well. As US employers continue to reopen their businesses and the economy overall, one of the key questions being asked is to what degree are employers responsible for maintaining a healthy, uh and safe work environment. To get some answers, we welcome Ema Court. She's a healthcare reporter for Bloomberg News, and thanks so much for

joining us here. Give us a sense of maybe the you know, the whole paradigm of what we're seeing as businesses open up, what are they doing to ensure the health and safety of their employees coming back? You know, work play safety has become you know, a really kind of new and different paradigm today. Right as employers, you know, some of them have been you know, operating throughout the pandemic.

Some of them are starting to push to return to work, you know, for the first time pushing, you know, maybe smaller coherts of employees at the beginning. And as part of that, you know, we're seeing a lot of different measures being deployed. We're you know, we've been talking about temperature screenings for a long time. UM, symptom checkers, which means, you know, maybe your employer sends you a list of four questions you have to answer before you come into

the office. You know, do have symptoms? Things like that, have you been in high risk situations like a big group of people or or an event indoors? Things like that, UM, you know, masks that work, you know, even physical barriers like plexiglass for instance, hand sanitizer everywhere. UM. But interestingly, testing which has become such a first line mechanism of

ensuring public health in the community. It's it's sort of our only option absence of vaccine in terms of ensuring this virus doesn't you know, spread really rapidly from person to person. That has actually been a really small element of employers back to back to work pushes. And there are a variety of reasons for that, but a big one is caused and and the sort of crucial limitations

of how these tests can be deployed. You can't really test someone and say, okay, you know, you're all clear and we don't have to worry about you anymore getting sick. You know, That's that's not how these tests work. They're the diagnostic tests that we have right now. Say at this moment in time, when you were tested, you do not have COVID N team. You know, there's also an issue of false negative, but mainly there's an issue of what if you leave the testing site and you go

into the parking lot and you get sick. You know that, how helpful is the test then? Um, So these are things employers are really kind of wrestling with as they think about whether to have employees at work and what kinds of mechanisms to have in placed there, what our employer is responsible for and who is regulating that is

that the unions? Is there anything in federal government suggestions? Yeah, there's there's been a variety of recommendations in terms of how to return to work, and it sort of depends on where you look. Everyone has sort of a booklet of recommendations or requirements. In some cases, you know, local governments, state governments. The CDC has recommendations. Um, you know, E e e o C has put out recommendations even specifically on testing thing you can use diagnostic prestoom, but there are

other kinds of testing. You can't make a requirement to go back to work, So it depends on your the industry and where you are and and things like that, um and it. But it does present the sort of patchwork of requirements and recommendations depending on where you are. And of course local conditions factor into this a lot too.

Rite you know, I'm here in New York where you know, obviously it was a very big hot spot you know, earlier in the pandemic, and now you know, perhaps more people are returning to work, whereas other parts of the country the situation in terms of COVID nineteen is very different. So I am a to what extent do we know kind of a liability businesses may have from employees saying you're assuming them because you brought me back into a

unsafe work environment. Yeah, you know, it's a really interesting and important question and one that's sort of still being figured out right now. I mean, you know, with regards to testing specifically, we've seen, you know, a union that represents employees and casinos in Vegas to certain casinos saying you need to make you know, testing a part of the return to work strategy like this has to be a mandatory part of this, of this, of this push.

But we've also seen you know, a lot of lawsuits being filed over and this is something that's probably going to be litigated for a long time. Um and it's unclear. You know, A big question that comes up around that is can you prove that you've got coronavirus, you've got COVID nineteen out work? And it's not it's clear how well anyone would be able to prove that. I mean, it depends on what the bar is, you know, how how the bar is set by court, well will be

the test case. Is there a test case out there yet or do we have to wait and see for a few more months. I think this is gonna take a while to settle. You know, many employers, especially large employers that operate in many jurisdictions, are still wrestling with these issues. And I think we are also going to see standards evolved and change, um as testing technology gets better, for instance, um as people set standards for different industries.

You know, a lot of employers that operate in places around the country have tried to, you know, because they're facing the sort of patchwork of different requirements UM and Guidance have tried to make, you know, meet sort of the highest standards, right because it's easier if you're operating in multiple jurisdictions UM. But you know, the bar maybe lower for you know, small businesses or other kinds of players.

So it's going to be really interesting to see how these things chake out and to see if employers become you know, go out there and say we are setting the highest possible standards for our workplace here and maybe become a big incentive for employees to want to work there exactly. It's going to be fascinating. I mean, will countries even be suing other countries if travelers brought it

in our thanks to m Court healthcare reporter from Bloomberg. Now, let's move to the oil market, because we're seeing Saudi Arabia raise prices, We're seeing equities rally, and that's all helping oil to stay above forty arrow. Somebody watching this and the natural gas markets very closely is Stephen Short, president of the Short Group always thrilled to have Stephen on Stephen Saudi is raising prices? Is that a little bit dangerous in terms of the balance when it comes

to OPEC? Absolutely, I think so, Vanni. Look, it is the first week of July, which only means we have about seven more weeks demand or peak demand left in the season. And in fact, when we look at this market, historically demand will peak by the end of this month beginning of August. So so once we get into August UH, this season's peak demand is going to pull off into the exit ramp, and then as of course we transition

into the fall, demand will continue to fall. Now, keep in mind this is not obviously a normal year, and demand is already supremely lagging relative to normal. For instance, here in the United States, we should be boiling upwards of well over seventeen million barrels a day UH, and last week's e I report we just breached the fourteen million barrel a day, So we're accumulating relative to historical norms, a significant glut in the market with regard to crude oil,

the same situation in gasoline. So with the current situation, given where we are at this point of the calendar, we're certainly playing with a with a dangerous market at this point. So, Stephen, the news we woke to this morning is that Warren Buffett is buying some assets from Dominion Resources the pipeline business. Is that any way and should that in any way be interpreted as a call

that warrants calling the bottom in natural gas prices. Well, to be honest with you, I'm certainly relieved that that Mr Buffett is making this purchase. Of course, with what we saw last week with Chesapeake and some of the other major bankruptcies we've seen since the market collapsed back in April, UH, certainly the signs were there that we

were going to see consolidation in this industry. I don't think Mr. Buffett's purchase is going to be the the the last UH transaction that we've seen in this market. We're going to see a marketplace that is much smaller as UH companies with with good acreage, prime assets that are having difficulty UH we'll look to bail on this market. So so clearly what we're looking at here is is a market that you know, primarily natural gas as as that fuel of the future, UH, certainly giving its stance

in the marketplace. That is the thinking man's uh choice to be had as we look forward. My only caveat here is are my concern I should say, is kind of the the the lurch that we're seeing with certain aspects in the government UH going away or discouraging investment in and in hydrocarbons, especially natural gas. But Mr Buffett's entry into this market at this juncture, it makes sense

these assets are being had on the cheap. Obviously, he's Warren Buffett, he knows what he's doing, uh, And I'm taking it as a relief because my concerns regarding government uh interference in this market side. I don't think he'd be making this assumption if that was really something to be concerned about. You know, it goes again tuition, Stephen, not that we should really ever use tuition on anything,

particularly on the markets. But natural gas producers for the thirty six consecutive months have boosted production at these prices. How does that make sense? Yeah, absolutely it is. It is a bit of a head scratcher. A lot of that production Vanni over, as you said, of the past three years has been what's called associated gas production, so that that is gas making its way to the market

that that's not being drilled for. That is to say, this was crude al UH that's being drilled for, and gas deposits associated with the those barrels being pulled out of the ground. That gas is coming up as well, and that is certainly adding to the pool. So I

do think we're at that point. UH. For instance, here in Pennsylvania, which is now the epicenter of basically the global natural gas market, we've seen a significant decline in drilling permits since February so and in fact, apple h in natural gas production Pennsylvania, Ohio, West Virginia specifically UH, that production has been falling month over month now for about the last seven or eight months. So it's been

a slow catch up. I think, Fannie that the issue here is that the gas market is there's a limit engineering wise to the amount of gas you can actually pull off. But now it's a demand side. Hey, Stephen, thanks so much as always for that update on all things energy. It was appreciate getting your view, Stephen Short, president of the Short Group in Pennsylvania, talking about UH

crude oil globally, natural gas, particularly here in the US. Again, Warren Buffett buying the pipeline or certain pipeline assets from Dominion Energy. Well, for many investors in this market, given the voluntility, they are simply trying to preserve wealth as best they can. Uh. And that includes some of the ultra wealthy as well. Michael Sane felt he's a chairman of founder of Tiger twenty one, and Tiger twenty one

is really a unique organization. It's a peer a member ship organization for high net worth uh, wealth creators and preservers. So Michael gets a really interesting viewpoint there from his members, uh, and he joins us now. Michael SnO felt, thanks so much for joining us once again again. I guess since the last time we talked to you, we've had just this tremendous pandemic sweep the world, creating a tremendous amount of economic uh, you know, uncertainty. How are your members

viewing the world today and how are they positioning their portfolios? Great? Thanks for having me, Paul. You know, our members have been weathering the storm, and and that's how they think about it. Are members are primarily not exclusively first generation wealth creators and mostly entrepreneurs, investors, and executives. So these are these are the people who've had to create wealth over an entire generation, and they've been through different storms.

This is certainly unique, but they've been doing two things, always looking for opportunities, very select of lee. It's not business as usual. The way we say it is our window for business is open. Individuals say this, our window for business is open, but the bar is much higher. But also we've been raising cash because right now everything

seems very rosy. It's not just today's ebulent market. The last couple of weeks, the market has been coming back, but members aren't convinced that it's a one way street. You could have some rough times coming up later this year when p p P runs out. Uh And obviously the pandemic has hit different businesses quite differently. If you're a retailer, you're thinking very differently than if you're a tech company that's doing extremely well. Yeah, the PPP you

reopened today. The new deadline to apply is August eight, so a few more weeks for people to apply. Michael any idea how much wealth was destroyed by the pandemic. Well, um, most of our members, because they have a low exposure to the public market. It's only about are in the around breaking even. You know, if you were a high tech investor, the Nasdaq is ahead for the year quite amazingly. So we have members who, if they have well diversified portfolios,

have losses in the single digits. But just like the average of a man and a horse's three legs, some of our members have done extremely well and others are learning from them how they were positioned to do so well and thinking about how to be protective on the downside. So it's it's across the board, but generally it's probably a break even to just down one or two or three points at this point. So, Michael's interesting the on

the M and A front. Just over the last twenty four hours, we saw famed at value investor Warren Buffett make a ten billion dollar acquisition of some uh liquid fieda, some natural gas assets, some pipelines, suggesting to a lot of investors that maybe he sees the bottom in that

particular subset of the market. Art your members are they saying, Hey, I'm going to take advantage of this market uh, you know meltdown that we've seen, even despite the partial comeback we've had, that's maybe an opportunity to really bottom fish in certain sectors. Oh for sure. You know. I think what's made our members a unique cohord is the fact that they can roll up their shirt sleeves and uh

chuck and jive if you will, to opportunities. And so they've they've kind of had a twist in their portfolio. On the one hand, they've bolstered their cash. We uh, we recognize over the last ten years um through our asset allocation how members are diversifying their portfolio and cash has been around twelve percent. Well, in the last three months, cash has grown to It's a dramatic change, call it a flight to safety. But what that really means is

members are building resources to pounce on opportunities. I know, in one when the real estate market was down, I bought a portfolio for twenty cents on the dollar that tripled in value over the next few years. And these kind of opportunities only occur uh in times like this. So you have to both have the security to know that you can weather the storm, but that allows you

to be on the lookout for unique opportunities. And I would say that balance that twist, if you will, more security and working really hard to find opportunities characterize as a good number of our members. Very briefly, Michael, what's the relationship to real estate? How has it changed? Well, real estate is our biggest allocation, about twenty percent of our assets, and today we have about eighty billion dollars and we don't manage money. It's our members individual managing

over seven ninety members. Um. Real state is the story of the pandemic. If you're in the retail area or the hotel area, it's uh, you know, been a heap of trouble, but industrial real estate has done amazingly well. Uh, and adjust as you were asking me, pouncing on opportunities. Obviously, if you were diversified, well, even if you were in the real estate in retail, you hopefully have other assets

now and now there are opportunities to look at. So we have members looking at shopping malls and hotel chains to see where the opportunities are because there's going to be great opportunities there. Michael, we will check back in with you on that, Michael Sonofeld, chairman and founder of Tiger twenty one. Well, we are broadcasting live from the Homburg Interactive Broger Studio and it is time for Bloomberg Opinion.

At ten forty nine on Wall Streets, It's time to check in with Bloomberg Opinion columnist, author of a biography of Henry Kissinger, the author of Civilization, The West and the Rest, and of course senior fellow at the Hoover

Institution at Stanford. Neil Ferguson is very welcome to the program. Neil, you're the man who coined the word chi America, and you say in one of your latest columns that you agree with Henry Kissinger that we've seen the opening gambit in a cold war to this between the US and China. How did relations between Beijing and Washington, Sara is so badly Well, it's a it's a great question. I was one of the people who came up with shi America back in two thousand seven, along with Mark Shilrik, but

we always said it wouldn't last. The word shi America was a pun on the word chimera. The only question was when things would unravel. I thought it would be

around the financial crisis, but that didn't happen. I think the real turning point has been J and pings increasingly assertive foreign policy, and I see the presidency of Donald Trump is in some motion just a reaction to that, because it kind of the penny dropped with ordinary Americans that China was getting most of the benefits of chi America. And finally someone came long from outside the political class and articulated that concern, and that somebody was Donald Trump. Alright, So, Neil,

from your perspective, what do you think China strategy is here? Well, I think there's obviously a priority on readying writing the economic ship, and I think one has to recognize that the principal concern for Juan Ping is actually making sure that the Chinese economy, whether it's the storm of COVID nineteen.

But meanwhile, I think the subplot is asserting China's power not only regionally but globally in a whole range of different ways, ranging from the One Belt, One Road initiative, which is very much Sejan Ping's brainchild, two more conventional assertions of power in the South China Sea and with perspect to Taiwan, and then fighting the tech war, which

which I think is really he here. Sometimes people forget that that that the tech war over the future of Hawei and its role in global five D network is more important than the trade war that Donald Trump launched in early tween, and I think from a Chinese bantage point, it's a very major concern that right now there's a Damocles sword over Huawei. In September, the Commerce Department is intending to cut Huawei off from imported semi conductors from

companies like Taiwan TSMC. So there's a whole range of different ways in which this told war is being waged. But I think the key thing is is not assume that somehow Donald Trump started it. I think it's much more accurate to say that China started in and Trump

was in some ways a reaction to that. And in fact, Neil, what you're saying brings up the question of whether she Jin Ping is actually committed to market reform to the extent that predecessors, or is he willing to give up some free market you know, developments, if you like, in order to return his community to sort of a more

communist community. Well, well, I think it's crucial to realize that she j and Ping has quite consciously shifted away from policies of economic liberalization, and that one of the signatures of his time as General Secretary of the Communist Party, has been an increase in the power of the state owned enterprises, and also, I think, perhaps just as importantly, a real tightening ideologically, which is very obvious in Chinese universities.

I'm a visiting professor at SIWA, but I've seen the atmosphere change from one of relative openness to one in which people are losing their jobs or or indeed being subjected to arrest for essentially lecturing on the realities of Chinese history and expressing criticism of the of this new

ideological tightening. I do think there's one qualification, though. One way that the Chinese are trying to counter Trump is by appealing to Wall Street and saying, yeah, we may, we may become in as, but come on in to our financial markets and we will make it easier for you to come in, not to get out, of course,

because China still has capital controls. But I think one of the interesting subplots here is the way in which Beijing is pitching to Wall Street, and that's a pitch that getting quite a warm reception from companies ranging from JP Morgan to the big credit card companies. That that's an exception that the basic trend. It's a reimposition of the party's control and a shift away from the more the more liberal era when we used to talk about

ultimately the remnumb being a conversible currency. I think that's all forgotten that. Neil, thank you so much for joining us. Appreciate your thoughts on this important and evolving topic. Neil Ferguson, He's a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, is also a Bloomberg Opinion columns. Thanks for listening to Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts or whatever a podcast platform you prefer.

I'm Bonnie Quinn. I'm on Twitter at Bonnie Quinn, and I'm Paul Sweeney. I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio.