Miller Tabak's Maley on Markets; Red Cross's Kieserman (Audio)

with Bloomberg Editor in chief John Michael Thwaite. He did speak through an interpreter, took on a number of topics, including politics, national security, and also they talked about oil. It wasn't us who rejected the ideo of freezing output levels. It was our starty partners who at the last moment changed their view and decided to take a pos in station decision. Yeah, that was repeat. Position hasn't changed. And if Prince Sloman and I speak about this, then I

shall post bloot forward the opposition again. And right now we do have West Texas Intermediate crewed up by two and a half percent, Gold up nine tenths of one percent, Charlie Tellot Bloomberg Radio. You're listening to Taking Stock with Kathleen Hayes and Pim Box on Bloomberg Radio D two Live at the US Tennis Open twenties six team for a Flushing Meadows Corona Parks Queen. We've had a terrific day here so far. I know he would love to be here with me because he loves sports of all kinds.

Maybe next year we'll get Matt Maylee from Boston down to New York City to see some tennis and talk about the markets, which is what he's here to do with us today. Matt Maylely, of course you know him well listening to Bloomberg Radio. He's equity strategist at Miller tay Back. So Matt's uh, welcome to the show as always, Well,

thank you. I do need to know, though, right away, who was the you know, some of the tennis people you've been playing with, because we're talking with this, because I do know that you are like the good luck person. But I mean eight back, I remember when when when Auburn beat Alabama on a missed field goal, like you were, you were there like a few days beforehand, and ever since then, every time you go to a sportsouting event, anybody you meet with it has has it wins and

when a big way. So we've got to keep from from your mouth to all the tennis stars. Ears. Actually, we've had a lot of interesting people and we love to cover the business aspect of this. But we did speak to Alan Krueger, who was the former head of Council Leaving Economic Advisors, a leading US labor market expert, about the jobs report and about tennis. But Alan said, the reports in an economy is chucking along. Okay, it's a long expansion, and you know it's it's it's looking

pretty good. It does probably set the fit up for an interest rate increase, et cetera. You know, maybe by the end of the year. Uh, what do you think about that in the context of what it means for stocks? The stocks did reasonably well today. A nice little game. Yeah, it's it's a little I mean, I must have been I really I really thought that when the when the number first came out, I thought that the stocks rally a little bit more than they did. But it's still

a nice game, as you say. But the one thing to note is that is that both the bond market, the treasury market UH, and the dollar. UH. The race moved up and the dollar moved up by the end of the day after initially going down in both cases. So they seem to think that UH September rate hike

is still on the table. So we'll just have to see what happens, because we do get some set speak next week, and I'm sure they'll want to UH find tune a little bit what has been said recently by UH by UH chair of FETE, chair Yelling, and a vice chair of Fisher. So I'll be watching that very closely for one of these for stocks. You know, if if the markets statten along, we do get higher rates, I I do worry that that'll be a bit of

a headwind for stocks. Well thank you, because so many people say, oh, what difference in one quarter point rate hike, no big deal, But I don't know if they understand how markets think and work to say that one rate hike wouldn't make any difference. Frequently markets say that's it. They're not just gonna do one, They're gonna keep hiking interest rates exactly. And the other half of that, of course, is that um, it's not just I mean, people will say, well,

we'll have a big impact on the economy. Some people disagree with that. But even if you do agree with that, we do have to note that you look at margins. Debt on New York Stock to change is near record highs.

And like we saw with UH when they had the first rate hike, the models for some of these leverage investors and when you see the cost of carrying all that leverage, all that margin will move up, so they will their models will tell them the g You've gotta wind some of that leverage, and that will cause the sub bit of artificial spelling, and that could weigh on the markets more than I think most people realize. So, UH, two part question, I guess Number one, is this it

for the stock market? In I looked to next year to see more gains? And what is your strategy in the midst of all this? You know, second guessing the FED wedding for earnings which we just finished a seasonal and be here for what what do you do now? Well? I think that you I think you have to play

on on the defensive side. However, having said that, UH, you have to be careful in which defensive groups you go into, because you know you look at the utility stocks that should been a great, great group this year and something we were very positive on, you know, at the very unit of the year, and we were early on it. But now you've gotten two levels where they you know, they've gotten extended on a valuation basis. So

we've got to be careful there. So I really just think, actually, uh, you know, picking your spots, looking at uh, even taking a few chips off the table, adding to cash. I know it doesn't need to get a whole lot right now or really anything, but you know, nobody ever lost money taking privates, and you look for opportunities if if if in one we do get a decline in the

in the in the usual volatile fall months. All right, Matt Maye, you have a great three day weekend you too, and let us know what your schedule is about the college football this year. We all need to know it. Okay, Matt Maye, thank you so very much. Joining us from Miller tay Back where he's Equity Strategists in Boston. Now we want to turn our attention to Louisiana. As a matter of fact, yesterday we're speaking with John so from

Cumblent advisers. Another tennis fan who covers the municipal bond market comes out every year. When I asked him about the big risk, one of the big risk to mutis, he said, well, we're really concerned about storms in the Gulf rebuilding Louisiana, how that has hit people and what it could mean for all those communities down there. Uh. And as a matter of fact, on that note, we want to bring in someone who knows all about this and how difficult it is and what's being done to help.

Brad Keiserman. He's vice president for Disaster Operations and Logistics at the American Red Cross National Headquarters. So Brad, let's get right into this. How bad is the situation in Louisiana. I'd say this is the worst natural disaster in the United States since Hurricane Sandy a few years ago. Which is not to say that it is comparable to Sandy, although everyone will, well I think, make comparisons. But the over six trillion gallons of water fell in Louisiana over

the forty eight hour period. Um, there's over a hundred and sixty four thousand structures that have been damaged by the flooding. That's twice the number of structures that are in Manhattan, So just to give people a sense to the magnitude of the damage. Weren't three weeks into this and we still had nearly fifteen hundred people in in eleven shelters last night, which is not typically what we

see in any disaster. So a very very significant event, tragic for so many people, and most people don't have flood insurance, they did not live in a floodplate. I just want to stress this because I think sometimes people don't realize this is this is like even though maybe it's even once in a thousand year event for this region. These people were not negligender, careless. They just got hit

by something absolutely unexpectedly devastating. That's exactly right that the vast majority of people who were impacted by the storm, and the storm is very much like our hurricane, except it wasn't. But it's sat on top of Louisiana. It was a tropical tropical system, and it can it caused that damage. Most of these people did not live in a floodplate. They would not have been required to get

flood insurance as a condition of their mortgage. Uh, and so it really is devastating for them, and there's just a limit to what's going to be available to help them rebuild because as you know, you know, most insurance poemgolage, insurance doesn't cover that. The federal the federal programs, while they're very generous, certainly are going to pay to rebuild an entire home. So it's uh, it's gonna be very

challenging recovery for many, many people. And now just to keep you at the Red Cross very busy and to just to keep our minds open for other people in this country who are facing storms and hurricanes. Uh, you're looking at Florida, you're looking at Hawaii. We are her Mean. Hurricane her Mean passed over Florida early this morning and uh, we had about five people and about fifty shelters in Florida and Georgia overnight. The storm is now passing through

Georgia up across the Carolinas. It's supposed to go sit off shore. Uh, and I think it's going to cause tropical winds and rains for much of the mid Atlantic into early next week. And we're still concerned that it may reintentify into a hurricane and threat in the Northeast. So we're doing our our planning for that Hurricane Leicester. Meanwhile, out in the Pacific, about three miles off the coast of Hawaii right now, likely will begin impacts here in

the next few hours and into tomorrow. Fortunately that track is is edging a little bit to the north of the island, but we still expect at least tropical force winds on Oahu and Maui. We've got about eighty people out there providing shelter, feeding, and the book relief supplies today. Uh, you know, down in Louisiana have two thousand people and working via Florida Georgia line right now about three people. So it's been a very intense, very intense Friday and

a very intense three weeks. So what's the number one thing you have learned now addressing uh, various kinds of flood, certain hurricane causes them. What happened in Louisiana. What's what is the big realization been for the American Red Cross? Well, I think that the most the biggest realization is about readiness and about our relationships with local and state emergency managers and with our partners in the local area. Those relationships are absolutely critical. The one thing you cannot get

back in a disaster, especially flood is time. So time is of the essence and our collective ability to be prepared to respond, to open shelters, to begin feeding, to do damage assessments, to speed at which that has done often determines the caliber of of the of the recovery and the response. And so that's probably my hop lesson in those relationships and the need for speed. All right, So, Brad, Uh, these kinds of operations are very expensive. What have you raised?

What do? What can people do now to help you do what must be done? So I think we certainly could use donations of funds, generosity and philanthropy much appreciated. Right now, we've raised about seventeen point four million designated just for Louisiana, but our costs will be the over twite as occasion what we're projecting right now with these UH literally tens of thousands of shelter stays and meals UH and UH and all of the services and and

UH staff required to provide them. So donations, Folks can do that by going to UH called Red Cross. They can do that by going to red Cross dot org and making a donation there. We also need volunteers that we need volunteers in Louisiana, volunteers in Florida. And I'm sure this we can admit Atlantic and people can volunteer from home. We do have things that you can do

from your home, virtual support and virtual case work. And so if you want to volunteer, go to the Red Cross dot org website called your local Red Cross chapter. We can really really use you. Brad Kieselman. Thank you so very much. Something very important to ponder as we enjoy the tennis at the US Open and think of our fellow Americans who need help. I'm Kathleen Hayes and this is Bloomberg