Markets, Oil, And International Women’s Day

We've been taught. I mean, there's so much pessimism right in markets. We were talking about JP Morgan UM coming out and saying clients are under extreme stress. We've seen insane volatility, and obviously for the everyday person, you've got inflation. UM as Greg just noted, uh five dollars and I think forty four cents around San Francisco to fill up UM. At the same time, Matt Inclare, our editor in chief emeritus, wrote a piece UM pointing out that CEOs are extremely optimistic.

They want to spend a lot of money, they want to hire a ton more people. UM, how do you see the markets right now? Well, to your point, Matt, we really do have more of a balanced outlook right now on the market, and the reason it is really

very similar to the UH factors that you outlined. While certainly there's a lot of concerning events, including the human tragedy that we have with the Ukraine and Russia of invasion UH, if you look under the hood at the basic fundamentals in the US economy, it actually is robust and so on a macro basis, if we look at our global dashboard of indicators, we see that especially in the U S we're on solid growth ground, coming off

very high levels. And in addition, generally activity around the world, law under some threat from what's going on in the vacation from the invasion, is still UH managing to stay in growth territory. And to your point, corporate indicators also are robust. We just came out of a very nice fourth quarter earnings for seasons and revisions continue to go

up for the full year twenty twenty two. So when we balance some of the risks going on with changes in Fed monetary policy as well as the geopolitical situation, that counterbalance is what we see on the fundamental front, and therefore really more of a balanced outlook, Lisa, you know, what do we think about the FED meeting next week and what it might do in terms of changing course

in the way CEOs and investors see things. Yet to your point, really Fed monetary policies one of the key items that we're keeping an eye on, and really again on the risk ledger one of the key items simply because we're moving from a several year period of more accommodative policy to one to where the FED wants to normalize. Now.

Chair and Pal did just recently state that you know, he's going to be recommended recommending a twenty five basis point increase in interest rates at that March meeting, and so that took a little bit of fear out of the markets because there have been some concern for up to a fifty basis point increase. But really how that continues to navigate through the years going to be critical, only because the Fed's really in a tight spot with trying to maintain growth and yet grapple with some of

the elevated inflation that we've had. What's the key here, Lisa, When you come into the office every day and open up your Bloomberg, what's on your dashboard. What are you looking at? Is it all about commodities prices the last couple of days. Well, to your point, it really is both about what's going on with monetary policy as well as with commodities. And we certainly had a period where we started started to see some uh souciety in both the general rate of inflation as well as what was

happening with commodities. That again, with recent geopolitical events, uh we're seeing those uh strong spice up, especially in the price of energy, but also in other areas like grains and metals, and so that obviously is really a key risk to the outlook. All right, Lisa, thanks so much for joining us. Great having you on. I feel like I feel like checking in with uh Angie Gildea right now. She is a national security, national sector leader, I should say, Energy,

natural Resources and Chemicals joining us from KPMG. And it's a great time to have you on, Angie, because, um, the moves that we're seeing, just the uncertainty here, I mean, I honestly don't know if anyone wants to answer questions in this kind of market, how difficult is it. It's it's a lot of uncertainty out there, and really it's anyone's guests in terms of what what will happen next.

You know, it's interesting because it's also Sarah Week right now, where there is a lot of energy executives meeting down UM in Texas. Right you have Vicky Hallam saying that there are real risks out there. I mean, what what are oil executives worried about right now? You know, I have in the twenty five years in my career in energy, I don't know that I've seen quite anything like this. So there's a significant number of risk. I think the first UH risk that we all have to grapple with

is the the risk around energy security. That number that's number one for all of us making sure we have got UH the energy sources when we need it. Now, there's enough. The good news, the silver lining, if there is a silver lining of all of this, is there is enough oil and gas out there to UH to meet the world's demand. We just have to get it to the right to the right places and through the right the right markets. And we've been undersupplied for UH for a while now due to the lack of investment

in the sector. And that's on top of some of the challenges we're seeing right now. Is there anything that this administration can do to get that investment flowing again? Have they done it already? You know? Are the wildcatters out there looking for more oil? Um? Are they fracking to get US gas rather than shipping it in via UH you know, freighter from lergy from Russia. What do you see happening in that regard? Well, I think the good news is we have seen recounts increase, we have

seen drilling increase in the US. But these things take time. It's not something that you can necessarily turn on this bigot like you do with your with your water in the in the UH supplies immediately there and so it's going to take a while, um to get you know, to get supplied back into the market. And really the big question out there is will OPEQ stuff up and

release additional capacity to the market. I wonder if you could speak a little bit about the relationship between US oil companies and OPEC here, because you have I want to go back to those Viki Hallab, the Occidental CEO, comments what she says, it's a dire situation that world energy markets can't rely on major growth in the Permian basin. And so how do we think about, you know, the relationship between the US and opaque. Well, I think that's

something that we've always grappled with UM to some extent. Uh. The challenge has been over the last few years, capital capital spending CAPEX has been cut uh, and so you aren't seeing these major capital projects come online like we have in for instance, two thousand and eight, two thousand nine, when we saw UM significant challenges from a price standpoint. So we haven't seen the major investment from a major topic project from the international companies to the extent we

saw before. And so I think that's something that particularly as we go through the energy transition, that's something that we're going to have to keep in mind. There is a mix as we get to that zero, and we've got to plan uh and invest accordingly. All Right, Angie, thanks so much for joining us. Great to get your take, and UM, i'd love to we don't have time today, but i'd love to talk a little about your charity

work as well. Everybody we talked to in Texas is really philanthropic and working hard for children and for the homeless in terms of charity, and I think it's pretty fantastic UM and should be lauded. So Aye Guilda there. She is national sector leader Energy, Natural Resources and Chemicals for KPMG. It is internet Sam. The Women's Day now,

I know you and I were talking about yesterday. How um it kind of annoys you that we have a Women's History Month, because every month should be Women's History month. I always say I want half the year. I do think it's awesome though, that there's an International Women's Day, And in some places I used to live in Berlin, they actually give you the day off, which I think it's a great way to recognize. Marianne is Gandarian joins

us right now. She's the CEO and president Women's World Banking UM and has a lot of experience on Wall Street. Comes out of UH Georgetown and Yale. UM. So doing incredibly well. Mary Allen, what what are your thoughts on International Women's Day as we can try and kind of separate ourselves from um, the war and what's going on. I guess we can come back to that in a second, But just in terms of working on Wall Street as

a woman, how has it changed? Oh? My goodness, UM, it's great to be great to be with you, and I feel much the same way at women's role banking. Every day is the International Women's Day. UM. I think the big thing that's changed, and certainly UM COVID has been of the exceplerator of that, is that we're finally throwing a light on some of the inequalities that have always existed. That you know, women have always borne more of the unpaid care responsibilities at home, juggling, you know,

family job, educating the kids. Has just been thrown into really stark relief these these last two years. And now we're seeing women going back into the into the workforce at a slower pace than men. Their unemployment rates were higher um than men. So on the one end, not a whole lot has changed. On the other hand, at least we're talking about it. There's a light being shown on these issues. Now you've come out with a book on this that there's nothing micro about a billion women.

I'm wondering if you could talk a little about the challenges and really the opportunity used to be extending more credit to women who have found it so difficult to get a loan to start a business. So so glad you asked that but you know, actually, part of the you know, double entendre if you will, of the title is that it's it's not just about micro loans. It's

not just about very small loans. It's about really making sure that all women, and there are over a billion women around the world who have no access to financial UM products and services at all, making sure that they have access to all of them. We could be adding fifty billion dollars annually to retail banking revenues. If women were banked at the same degree of men, you could have another fifty billion in annual insurance premiums life insurance

premiums alone. If insurance companies UM insured women at the same rate, you'd have two trillion dollars additional UM savings

deposits made. I mean, you can you can fund a whole lot of infrastructural a lot of things UM if you were banking women at the same rates that you're banking One thing I wonder a lot about and humor me here and one hand, this idea that blockchain and cryptocurrency and digital payments could expand access to financial services for people around the world, underserved communities around the world.

On one hand, that's an amazing idea. On the other hand, you see the industry still really lacking diversity in a big way. I'm wondering if you think about the way the financial system is evolving, whether it's meeting that opportunity that you're talking about. I love that you're bringing your You're bridging the idea of the people who run the businesses that people who are served by the businesses being you know, somewhat at odds here. Let me just first

se leaving aside crypto for a moment. Digital financial services has been a revolutionary, a game change for providing sort of last mile financial services to people who have never had access to finance before, mainly because you've finally gotten the price and the cost of those very small transactions which poor people, um do. They maybe do more transacting, but they do each individual transaction UM at a much smaller amount. It finally makes sense financially to do that.

And so you've really seen, um just a complete game change on the field of broader access to finance. But you're absolutely right, and you know, and frankly, fintech, which is supposed to be so disruptive, is actually worse than the mainstream of the financial sector. You know, you've only got something like four percent of FinTechs even have one

woman on their board. And we know that diversity, uh in board diversity in any group is going to be much better at solving complex problems than a completely um non diverse group is. So there's only benefit to be gained by bringing more more women, were people's colors, more

diverse people around the table. You have some amazing statistics there, and it makes me wonder, you know, if it comes down to the numbers and there's this huge underserved need here by the numbers, what has kept banks from serving

women for so long? Uh? This is uh that this is our life's work really, But I think one of the big pieces that we're always kind of hammering home is is just making sure that financial service providers have to report on a gender disegregated data basis, so that we know how are women using products, how are they using services, and are they reporting those to their banking superintendent, to the to the central bank, Because when they do, you can really start to shape policy, you can start

to shape products. If you don't know who your client is and how they use your product, you know that you're kind of dead and dead in the water. What we do see in addition to that, though, unfortunately, is is we've seen in Latin America. For example, there was a survey done um hundred and ten banks who actually did report to their banking superintendent on gender disaggregated data basis on only four of them. Four banks use that

data then in making decisions. So I think it's both a question of collecting it and then using it to drive decisions. I wanted to save a couple of minutes, Mary Allen, just to ask you about the women um of Ukraine. Who are you know, uh, currently maybe a million streaming women alone streaming across borders as refugees. We saw, of course a huge refugee crisis out of Syria into

Europe about six seven years ago. And um, these women aren't not just under banked, but in under incredible stress, especially since oftentimes everything is left to them in terms of organization and figuring out how the family is going to function, what can be done. Well, I'm just so glad you've you've highlighted this and I really resonated with

what you were saying, with your experience in Berlin. I lived in Russia for a short time of twenty five years ago, and it was for the first time I even knew there was such a thing as International Women's Day. They hand you flowers on the street. You get on the Metro and people are handing you flowers. I mean, it's really it's a big deal and it's a lot

of fun. Um and it's just such a sharp contrast, as you say, to the women who are being separated from their families, driven from their homes and into refugee camps. I mean where I'm heartened in some way, um, in comparison to the Syrian refugees we saw where where women were forced out of their homes in the Syrian crisis. You know, they weren't banked, they didn't necessarily have cell phones, they didn't actually have did you access to their their

financial services. At least these women from Ukraine have access to the technology and hopefully there you know, their banks will be able to follow them over over the border. But it's a developing crisis. We've seen some um, it's some real interest in the researchers who track on an

underbanked women in looking at this refugee crisis. This is going to be on almost exclusively female refugee crisis and one of people who have access to the technology that we're so hopeful will be able to help them as they go into this next very sad chapter of their lives. All right, uh, Mary Allen, great talking to you, and we should do it more often than on International Women's Day obviously, so I hope we can get you back very soon. Mary Allen, Iskandarian their CEO on President of

Women's World Banking. I want to get over to jaraln Ritter, head of External Affairs and SG at Oregon On, and first off say that Paul would be so disappointed to be out today because Jerlyn is a ducal um um. Kind of a big deal for Paul. But Jerlyn, you also um studied law at Stanford and international economics at Johns Hopkins. I think a great time to have uh you on, especially with your experience at at MERK and

now at organon um. Is it difficult to navigate E s G at a time when you know our values are changing. I was just watching President Biden defend his administration's bona fides when it comes to allowing oil producers to drill um. You know, less than a year ago, Democrats on Capitol Hill were ripping apart banks for funding oil producers UM to drill. So it's like it was bad then, but it's good now. Thanks for the question. I'm delighted to be here to provide organ on perspective,

especially on International Women's Day. We are a women's health company. Our vision is to make a better and healthier every day for every woman and e s G is absolutely, as you noted, an evolving area, and it can be tricky for our company. However, our cole purpose is to improve women's health and advanced gender equity. But we really see no conflict at all between our business objectives and what is good for society and our many stakeholders. You know, you can call it s G, but but frankly it's

it's just good long term business planning. Yeah, I mean, and I wasn't questioning your policy at organ On. I just thought, since you have so much experience in business, UM, since you have studied this at Johns Hopkins, and I'm sure you dipped into it at Stanford and Duke as well, I could get your take on what's going on today as President Biden steps out and UM bands oil from Russia,

and it's not just on the oil side. It's interesting if you look at it, uh, you know, the changing UM values in E s G. We would have banned for example, and maybe people still don't want to invest in weapons producers. But on the other hand, you do want the Ukrainians to be able to defend themselves. So I was hoping to ask you, aside from your role at Oregon on of course, I want to get back to that in International Women's Day. You know what you

think about UM the environment right now? Yeah, you You're absolutely right, and it is different for every single company, and the circumstances are changing so quickly and so dramatically. It's really a reason why company these need to, regardless of your sector, being really close touch with all of your stakeholders. I think that's critical for the long term

sustainability of companies. And you know, as the political environment evolves, as you know, stakeholder and investor perceptions evolve and expectations change, companies just have to keep up. You can't rely on what was good enough five years ago. You know, it's interesting, I'm wondering for a company that focuses on women's health later on today and Blomberg Television. We also have Dina shaker On whose works at Lux Capital. She is a

investor in women's health. In the venture capital world, you look at Oregon On and the stock is up more at a time when the SMP is down. I'm wondering about the investor interest here to invest in women and invest in women's health and the products around serving women. That's a great question. You know. Organ On was born precisely because of the tremendous unmet needs in women's health.

And we've been working very hard to educate UH investors, policy makers, all sorts of stakeholders about those unmet needs, about the disparities that are often overlooked frankly in women's health for far too long. And so that is our mission and it's a great space to be in. We strive to be the leader in women's health. We have the strength to do it. We've got great products, and we are very actively looking to grow our pipeline precisely

to meet those unmet needs that are out there. Do you think do you think by the way that the pandemic um pulled back the curtain showed us the brutal truth of some of the inequalities, because I think a lot of us have been feeling so good about how much progress we've made in terms of gender equity. But you look at what happened during the pandemic, and women were um hurt on an in an outsized way, and um, the problems that I think we haven't solved were really exposed.

Does that help us to move forward and do better? You know? I I'm not sure that the pandemic it did pull back the curtain, but it actually made it much worse. It didn't just reveal those inequities, it made them worse. You know. I've seen estimates that five million women have left the workforce in the US alone just over the last couple of years. Some studies show it's going to take women literally decades, up to three decades

to regain that process in the workforce. So the pandemic, unfortunately, it's I think it's been much worse for women and simply exposing existing inequalities, it absolutely has made them worse. All right, Gerlyn, thanks so much for joining us. Jerylyn Ritter there, head of External Affairs and E. S. G at Oregon On, thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. You can subscribe and listen to interviews with Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm

on Twitter at Matt Miller three. On ball Sweeney, I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio