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Markets, Big Oil, Intel, and Jeep

Oct 27, 20231 hr 3 min
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Episode description

Stuart Paul, US Economist with Bloomberg Economics, joins to discuss PCE data, University of Michigan sentiment, and the outlook for consumer spending. Alix Steel and Guy Johnson interview Exxon Chairman and CEO Darren Woods. Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Analyst Fernando Valle joins for analysis. Nadia Lovell, Senior US Equity Strategist at UBS Wealth Management, joins to talk markets and investing. Alex Chaloff, CIO at Bernstein Private Wealth Management, joins to talk about markets and investing. Pat Gelsinger, CEO at Intel, joins Bloomberg Technology to discuss earnings. Barry Ritholtz, host of “Masters in Business” on Bloomberg Radio and founder of Ritholtz Wealth Management, joins to discuss the Jeep 392 and Nissan Z. Hosted by Paul Sweeney and Matt Miller.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcript

Speaker 1

Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside my co host Matt Miller.

Speaker 2

Every business day, we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along with essential market moving news.

Speaker 1

Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast Economists, I mean, I don't know. We're told we have to talk to them, so we So we've frightened this guy, Stewart paula in there. He's a new guy. I didn't hire him, but he's at Bloomberg Economics. He's an economist here and we love talking to him. He's not a new new guy.

Speaker 3

He has a lot of experience on the street.

Speaker 1

Oh he's been around forever.

Speaker 3

Yeah, he's a research fellow at the fd I S.

Speaker 1

But who gets a PhD in economics? I mean, talk about it?

Speaker 3

Work for teal?

Speaker 1

I know that's pretty cool. Hey, Stuart, you're in our studio, man, you get like a double star on a Friday in studio. That is, he's always an effort man. You guys, have you and your team have a great story out or no doubt consumers lived beyond their means through third quarter.

And then that's Matt Miller, I mean, as he's looking at his Dodge Challenger parked in the garage and coveting that what are the numbers behind that are just have we exhausted all our savings and that we're just kind of borrowing And that's how the big spending number comes out today.

Speaker 4

Well, so the savings picture is a little bit complicated, but the headline numbers make it pretty clear that consumers were living beyond their means and it was mostly due to discretionary services spending in the third quarter and that continued through September. And so when we're looking really in real space, which is what matters most, we see real disposable income declining for four straight months and gangbusters spending

throughout the quarter, including on discretionary items. So the real question ends up being what's the FED going to do next? Fortunately, within the report, there's one little bit of a silver lining on the inflation side, and it's that in flight there was actually deflation for some of the most important durable goods, some of the things that are going to be most front of mind for those of us who lived through June of twenty one, for example, and we're

really focused on auto prices. Autoprice is declining in the PCE report, furniture price is declining. The catch all other durables prices declining. And so we see monetary policy getting some traction and they're just going to need to continue leaning against the consumers who have been spending down that saving spot pile.

Speaker 2

Now can they continue leaning against consumers? Can Can monetary policy get more aggressive even without them doing anything. That's kind of the narrative that the Fed has been giving us, right, this passive tightening thing that Bostik talks about.

Speaker 4

Right, So the passive tightening would be that you see economic activities slowing in the background while nominal policy rates stay steady, all while the FED is continuing to soak up liquidity by running down its balance sheet.

Speaker 5

That is possible.

Speaker 3

I suppose it's not. It's not doing nothing if they continue QT essentially.

Speaker 4

Yeah, I mean they still call QT passive. It really depends on how much there is an active sales to max out. There apps of ninety five billion dollars a month, but they consider it to be one of the more

passive elements. Of their monetary policy, and as they continue to soak up liquidity, as banks continue to see the effects of higher rates resulting in deposits leaving and the cost of credit becoming higher for consumers, it is the sort of thing that ends up resulting in slow and spending going forward.

Speaker 1

Now, consumers living beyond their means? Isn't that what Americans do in general? What's exactly?

Speaker 2

I mean?

Speaker 3

Have we just gotten back to normal?

Speaker 2

Because when I put you know, Torsten Slocks list of worries up to any of the bulls and I say, you know, savings have been completely drawn down. Everything's going on a credit card these days. Delinquencies are picking up. Yeah, the bulls always say, so what, That's how it was in twenty nineteen.

Speaker 3

This is how we do well.

Speaker 4

So here's what's not the same as in twenty nineteen. Savings rates are extraordinarily low, and we've been with the higher interest rates. Yeah wow, yeah, three point four percent in September. Three point four percent savings as a percentage of disposable.

Speaker 1

Person of your daughter, Paul, I am too every time.

Speaker 4

And that's while disposable personal income growth is negative, right, So think about what that means in saving space. I know that people like to, especially the bulls, like to look at this idea of cumulative excess savings, but that as a source of additional spending power going forward. But

that is not dry powder that's sitting in banks. That cumulative access savings, as it's calculated, is really just foregone spending in previous months, and that money could have been put into bitcoin or into whatever at sixty thousand dollars and it's gone, right, And we know that it's gone if we look at bank balances for the average person in the bottom fifty percent of the income distribution and adjusted for inflation, there is no excess cash balances for those folks.

Speaker 2

I got to ask about first about you Mish one year out their survey just coming across the ticker, participants expecting inflation of four point two percent. It's more than we thought they were going to say, and more than double what the Fed wants it to be.

Speaker 3

Is that a concern?

Speaker 4

So year ahead inflation expectations don't matter as much as longer term inflation expectation.

Speaker 2

So we should be looking at the five year or what so we should be looking at five year It seems like I don't even what can do tomorrow much less a year much less five.

Speaker 4

Yeah, because because year ahead is so responsive to gasoline prices.

Speaker 3

That's really why.

Speaker 4

It's like a pretty simple correlation.

Speaker 1

So it makes sense.

Speaker 5

Yeah, that tracts, so we do.

Speaker 4

We do want to look at the five.

Speaker 3

Year, five to ten year. We're looking at three percent on the survey.

Speaker 4

It just crossed, that's right, So that's for the median. The thing that most people are going to overlook that I don't want you guys to overlook, is that the average inflation expectations five year out jumped pretty dramatically up to four point seven percent from I think three point two percent the prior month. Yep, right, So like that is something notable that the FED is going to keep

an eye on. We still think that the FED is going to remain on pause through the October thirty one November one meeting.

Speaker 5

There is still.

Speaker 4

Another opportunity to hike at the end of the year. But when you see durable's prices coming off as we did in the most recent report, we see consumer sentiment moderating a little bit month over month, and we see real disposable income declining for four straight months, and households clearly getting a little bit stretched than the FED can be a bit patient.

Speaker 2

I just got one last question for an economist, which you are, and you have experience working with government economists as well. Comments are always on the one hand, on the other hand, right, and when you look at the surge in yields that we've seen in these markets, on the one hand, you could say, well, that's because of strong growth in.

Speaker 3

The US economy.

Speaker 2

On the other hand, you could say it's because of massive deficits that we have. Janet Yellen yesterday said the surge in longer term bond yields in recent months is a reflection of strong growth in the US economy, not the jump in government borrowing driven by a widening fiscal deficit.

Speaker 1

She would say that right talking her book.

Speaker 4

Yeah, I mean, is she just talking the book her book?

Speaker 5

Totally? Yeah, totally.

Speaker 4

I mean, any economists would acknowledge it. Because if we take it back to econ one oh one, we're thinking about incentives and constraints. Right, what's the Treasury Secretary's incentive here? It's to downplay the effect of running deficits that are pretty massive and being on a unsustainable fiscal trajectory for the next thirty years at least right over the entire forecast window. You look at what the Fed thinks that it is going to be more so a matter of unsustainable fiscal fiscal policy.

Speaker 3

That's what is good.

Speaker 1

Yeah, he's good. You can get a time, dude, Stuart Paul used US economists before Bloomberg Economics kind of breaking it down for us.

Speaker 6

Here you're listening to the teenth Ken's Live program Bloomberg Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business App, or listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts.

Speaker 3

Take a look at Xon Mobile.

Speaker 7

The stock is down about one two point two percent on earnings now at miss earning estments in the third quarter did boost its dividend and a huge, huge increase in cash flow. We want to get more details here with Darren Woods, exce On Mobile chairman and CEO. Darren, we really appreciate you joining us on this very busy earnings day. I just want to start a little nerdy and that's what the chemical side of the business, that's really what led to some of the weakness and earnings.

Chemicals is a really wonderful indicator as to the global economy. What should be our takeaway from that weakness for you guys.

Speaker 8

Well, I think there's two things to look at our chemical business. One obviously is demand and the link to GDP, but the other is the supply. And we typically see that commodity cycles in chemical are driven by generally growing demand, but then peaks of supply coming on, and that's certainly been the case that post a pandemic, a lot of supplies come on. We haven't seen excessive growth in GDP, and so you're seeing that pressure manifest itself in very

low margins, But that's a supply issue. Demand hasn't been as strong as in the past, but we're still continuing to see rising demand, just at a much lower rate than historical. My expectation as gb begins to pick up and China continues to kind of come out of its post lockdown issues, that we'll see growth and chemicals pick up, but we're still going to have to work through the supply overhang.

Speaker 7

Okay, So that's more of a supply issue than a demand issue.

Speaker 9

That's good to know.

Speaker 7

To that point, if we just go to the broader oil story because in some ways, let's get through earnings, but really the story for you guys is the Pioneer deal and the takeover there. And some of the numbers that you guys were tossing out here are huge, like increasing approvable reserve to one billion in the Permian. Some analysts are worried that you can't get that far. What are you guys going to do that gets you there?

Speaker 8

We're going to do is what we're already demonstrated we're capable of doing. So if you go back in time, Alex, you know, we set out a strategy to make sure that we're applying the full weight and force and capabilities of our company into the unconventional space, and that's been a concerted effort to develop technologies to improve recovery. We've been implementing that in the acreage that we've got to day and both the Delaware and the Midland we're seeing

very good results. We've demonstrated the ability of those technologies, the techniques and the development processes that we have in place, and what we're doing now is taking that proven capability and applying it to the best acreage in the Midland. And so Pioneer is basically in the fair way of acreage in the Midland, and so we've got this very good acregs that we're now going to apply these the capabilities that we have in Xon. So that's the combination.

They are demonstrated capabilities that we have built into those synergy numbers. It doesn't comprehend the additional technology that we're working on today that's in the pipeline that frankly we think has promised. So our view is, while the numbers are big and it reflects the capabilities that we bring from Exonomobile and Merry up with the acreage and the capabilities that the Pioneer has, we've got additional upside coming down the pipe.

Speaker 5

Wow, Darren, good morning. It's guy.

Speaker 10

To your points and you're just talking about what's happening here, but I think it goes and speaks to beyond that and what else you're doing. You are proving to be very good at execution projects execution, You're demonstrating that you've got a new refinery coming on.

Speaker 5

You are proving to be very good at that.

Speaker 10

Others in the energy space are not, particularly within the renewable space, where it is proving to be very.

Speaker 5

Difficult to execute well.

Speaker 10

Right now, can you just talk to me about how big an advantage that execution story is and how you can leverage it, leverage that to do more.

Speaker 8

No, I think you've hit on a really important point, guy, and you're absolutely right. It is critical, particularly in a capital intensive industry like ours, to be very good at executing large, complicated projects. In twenty nineteen, we consolidated all of our resources on projects into one global organization. That organization has the sole focus of making sure that we are developing world class, industry leading projects and then executing

them ahead of schedule and ahead of budget. And we're demonstrating that that applies itself to our low carbon solutions

business today. And so if you look at the challenges of going from carbon capture or biofuels at scale or hydrogen at scale, marrying that with requirements of storing and sequestering CO two, we are in the sweet spot of pulling all those things together and doing it at scale, which is going to be required to address the challenges out there with respect to the size of the emissions that we have to reduce. There aren't any other players out there that have that same capability.

Speaker 10

And that gives you a huge advantage. Now you're just one the pioneer deal Alex was talking about that does that execution ability though, now give you the opportunity to look at what's happening in the renewables space where there is a tough time emerging and start to cherry pick assets there as well, and use your ability to execute to turn those assets around.

Speaker 8

I would tell you we're going to leverage not just our project capability, but our technology capability. And the way I've characterized it, we're a molecule company, not an electron company, and so we bring more value in the space required to manage and transform molecules hydrogen and carbon molecules that applies to CO two, and so what we're going to apply our capabilities too is the molecule side of the equation, which is carbon capturing, storage, hydrogen biofils, capturing the emissions

associated with existing harder to carbonized industries that don't have any real practical alternatives, and applying that So we see huge opportunities there. In fact, our low carbon solutions businesses is turning those opportunities into high return projects today.

Speaker 7

But I know and I know that Dan Emin has talked about the fact that he won't do it unless he gets those high returns up for low carbon solutions. Darren, would that include buying a refiner, buying more refinering asset or refining assets, Like if you've got to move the stuff, if you've got to move the molecules and make different things out of it, you need different refining capacity.

Speaker 8

So you know, when we look at our refining circuit, we're looking for but I'd say is a diversified set of capabilities and advantages. So if you look at what we've been doing and refine, we've been concentrated dating our refinery footprint and focusing on the strategic refineries that are producing high value products in the lubricant space, the chemical space, the fuel space, the traditional fuel space, but also the opportunity to use our technology to then bring in biofuels

in biofeeds to make lower emissions fuels. So we feel really good about the front print we have today. You can't just go out and buy that from a refinery. It really comes from years of integrated approach to investing in making sure you've got a refinery that is producing a portfolio products that meets society needs, Darren.

Speaker 10

None of this happens at a vacuum. You must be watching very carefully what is happening in the Middle East.

Speaker 5

I assume you are.

Speaker 10

Is there to what extent do you think there is the possibility of a repeat of the nineteen seventies another oil shotcoming or do you think the supply base is now diversified enough to avoid that? And I'm also hearing conversations regarding the possibility of a supercycle re emerging. Do you see any eventuality that could lead to that at this point? How would you address these two issues?

Speaker 8

Well, I would start with the ladder And again, the industry is still recovering from the impact of the pandemic, and the lower levels of capital have been going in across the industry to offset the depletion that's been happening, and so supplies a fairly tight. So the big issue is, you know where's demand at. If you see real growth and growth in demand, then that's going to challenge the supply base that we have, which will put more pressure

on prices and margins. So I think it's really a function of where does the global economies go in the years ahead, because for the next couple of years. It's going to it's going to take time to get additional capacity coming on.

Speaker 11

With respect to.

Speaker 5

The Middle East, yeah, no, go ahead. Finished.

Speaker 8

With respect to the Middle East, what I'd say it is still an important region in the world. And while to date the tragic events are not manifesting themselves in an impact, you know, that's something we're keeping a very close eye.

Speaker 5

On, Darren.

Speaker 7

Do you see the global economy entering a recession soft landing?

Speaker 5

Do you see any of that on the.

Speaker 8

I think if you step back and look the US, I think is in reasonably good shape. I think China continues a very slow emergence from some of the challenges had in the past. I think Europe is probably the most challenge reason as I look around the world, and obviously they've been disadvantaged with the lack of energy security and some of the challenges they've had with the loss of affordable and natural gas, and so I think that's going to continue to weigh on the European economies.

Speaker 6

And then I.

Speaker 8

Think feel relatively comfortable with what we're seeing in the other parts of the world, and we'll see we build the business to handle any economic situation. We certainly go through these cycles, and so we make sure that we're robust to the down cycle.

Speaker 5

Darren, you kind of.

Speaker 7

Let me perfectly there because I wanted to ask about LNG in particular. Guyana, you have a new partner there and at Chevron, you guys are not unlike working with each other. You guys do this all the time. Have you talked to Mike recently? What kind of development can you guys come together and really drive technology to get more stuff out of the ground there.

Speaker 8

Well, I think if you look at what we've been doing, Guyana, we've got a really good track record there. You know, we're the operator there, We run the projects, we're developing those projects. We've demonstrated over the last several years the ability to bring in these large, complicated projects at world class schedules, world class costs. We're beating our budgets, we're beating our schedules, and then once we get them online, we're running them at levels higher than what the investment

basis was. So a very successful development process. We've got three votes, the third vote coming on here in November, and three more in the pipeline, so I think we've got a pretty good suite of technologies and capital projects that our organization is developing. We've worked with HESSE in the past. Of course, we work with Chevron all around the world. I see them their participation basically basically coming in and supporting the work that we've already demonstrated our ability to deliver on.

Speaker 10

Don This is an industry that feels like it's back on the front foots that you are optimistic that you can see deals getting done.

Speaker 5

The industry is doing deals.

Speaker 10

We see two manive ones over the last few days, yours obviously included within that age. Do you think that's true? Which then takes me to a kind of bigger picture story. This industry has been pushed back hard over the last ten years, let's call it by the ESG movement.

Speaker 5

Do you think that ESG movement is now over?

Speaker 6

I hope not.

Speaker 3

I don't think you know ESG.

Speaker 8

From our standpoint, this is not an either or proposition. This is an and equation where you've got to do both. You've got to develop the resources and the energy supplies that the world quickly needs to support economic growth and support people standards of living. And we've got to do things to reduce the emissions we're working on both of those things, and so I don't see those competing against

one another. In fact, to my point before, we're working on a set of solutions that are complementary and leverage the same skills and capacity. So we've always leaned into the need to produce low cost, low emissions energy sources and do that in our traditional businesses. We have continued to invest in that space, and we're continuing to work

opportunity needs to grow value in that space. At the same time, we're leaning into the energy transition and using those capabilities to help not only reduce emissions in our own operations, but we're helping third parties, particularly harder to carbonize industries, lower their emissions. We've got three large world scale contracts with fertilizer manufacturer, and industrial gas manufacturer and

steel manufacturer to capture their emissions. Those three contracts in themselves is the equivalent of putting two million electric vehicles on the road. That's a number of electric vehicles that are currently on the road in the US. So think about that. Free deals with carbon capturing and storage equate to the same level of electric vehicles that are currently on the market.

Speaker 5

Hey, Darren, we know you've got to run.

Speaker 7

Thank you so much. We really appreciate you taking the time with us today. It was great to get through that. Next time we're going to talk about four mile laterals and new technology Darren Wood's excell On Mobile chairman and CEO.

Speaker 1

All right, that was Bloomberg's Alex Steel and Guy Johnson interviewing Excellent Chairman CEO Darren Woods. There the company reported some numbers last night, as did Chevrons. Hear some of the big energy companies still with us here in our Bloomberg and aactor broker studios Fernando Valley, he covers all the energy space for Bloomberg Intelligence. So Fernanda, just stepping back, I was listening to what the mister Woods was saying.

What's kind of the investment call out in the street for Exon today?

Speaker 12

Well, I think there are two points. First, as Guy was trying to ask if they're ever going to do renewable power, they're not. I mean, I think that was

pretty clear. He's going to continue investing in oil and he sees an opportunity to seize market share from other players have stepped back, namely the European players, and he's done that by buying probably the premiere asset in the world and pioneer and then going down and deploying some of his technologies, there's still some questions in my mind as to whether those technologies will actually have the impact, he says, but there's no question that he bought the

best asset available. I think as long as we believe that oil will have twenty to thirty years, he's done a tremendous job in retooling excellent portfolio. All of their main assets now have been acquired since he became CEO, and as he said, Guiana is the next best one and it's a tremendous asset. As you saw with Chevron, buying has just to get into that.

Speaker 2

So just quick question on that, as long as we believe oil will have twenty or thirty years, are there people who think we won't use oil in thirty years or fifty years.

Speaker 12

Well, I'm glad you asked, not that we won't use it, but that will peak in by twenty thirty. The International Energy Agency just put out their Oil outlook saying as much this week.

Speaker 2

That will peak that what will the peak oil in terms of pulling it out of the ground.

Speaker 3

Will be twenty thirty.

Speaker 12

Demand demand used will be twenty thirty.

Speaker 1

Does the industry believe that.

Speaker 12

Well, certainly doesn't seem like Darren or Mike Worth from Chevron believes that, otherwise they wouldn't have bought twenty five plus year assets on.

Speaker 2

That right, I think Fativi Roll tends to exaggerate in that direction, right. I mean he also, well, whatever we can be.

Speaker 1

But if we if we go talk to BP or Total or any of the European ones, we're going to get a different story than we heard from Chevron or Excellent.

Speaker 12

Not so much from Total Total. Patrick has been very open and he thinks, similar to to to what Darren Woods said, it's an all of the above. I think when you look at just energy to me man and how much emergent markets still don't consume, it's the more energy you offer them ore you will be consumed. So it's an all of the above, not just if and sort of solution.

Speaker 1

Interesting. I don't know. I think it's we've heard peak oil so many times before.

Speaker 5

Dude.

Speaker 2

I started hearing peak oil when I was a little kid, and I'm almost fifty.

Speaker 1

But that's because I grew up.

Speaker 2

I grew up with Charlie Maxwell, and he was the first person to really call peak oil and he was very wrong, you know, and certainly in terms of time.

Speaker 12

As long as Matt's driving, we won't hit Piggy.

Speaker 1

Yeah, that's a great point there driving the Dodge Challenger, scappack whatever that thing is that burns fuel like you wouldn't believe, but it sounds good and it looks good. Fernanda Valley, thanks so much for joining us senior analysts covering the global energy space for Bloomberg Intelligence.

Speaker 6

You're listening to the tape Kensur Live program Bloomberg Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

Speaker 1

Obviously, we are right smack in the middle of earnings, and we have some good numbers out of Amazon offsetting some of the perhaps a week with then expected numbers we got from some of the other tech names earlier this week. So lots of crosswinds for this market to digest. That's why we check in with some pros who do this for a living. Nadia Leavell joins us. She's a senior US equity strategist within the global wealth management business at UBS. So Nadia, again, I was just kind of

suggesting a lot of crosswinds. Seems like there always is for investors to kind of navigate here. You put it all together, you look at kind of what we're hearing from Corporate America and the earnings as well as the economic data as well as a geopolitical data. What do you what's kind of the message you're going out to for the UBS clients.

Speaker 13

You know, our messages that we still remain constructive on the market. I mean, we had expected earnest to sort of be the stabilizer in the face of higher bond yields. And it's been a tough earning season so far, not because companies are missing expectations, they are actually being in expectations, but the stock market response has been more mutant and even negative, and those that have had the weaker outlook on guidance have actually been punished in this market environment.

And so what that is telling us is that the bar is high, and of course those higher bondials are also challenging a relative attractiveness of the equity market. But we do think that the market is hitting some key technical levels.

Speaker 9

You now seeing the S and P five.

Speaker 13

Hundred trade onto that two hundred day and moving average and flirting with correction territory. So we think when we get into the back half of the earnest season that hopefully that would act like a stabilizer and companies will continue to be We do think that the outlook for earnest hasn't improved just given the strength of the economy, and so essentially we are buyers on this weakness.

Speaker 1

Nice. So I mean, as we think about these markets here, I mean, I guess, are you at the point where you think we're at peak rates here and that the next move, whenever it does come, will be lower, or you still have some Federal reserve risk in your outlook?

Speaker 13

You know, next week we'll see what the Fed messaging is. We do think that the Fed is done hike it. I mean, I think it's widely expected at this point that the Federal will remain on whole next week. We did hear some of that being echoed by several of US SAYS speakers ahead of the blackout beard. Some might say that November is a skip, but we think that

the hike and cycle ended back in July. I mean, we all know the financial conditions are tight in quite a bit, and the long uncurd have moved up and it's doing exactly what the FED had hoped to do. So that transition mechanism of title monetary policies happened, and as we heard German policy last week, they could be even more in a pipeline just given the fact that the FED.

Speaker 9

Has raised interest rate so quickly over the last year.

Speaker 13

So we think that the hiking cycle is done in terms of the outlook for sort of.

Speaker 9

The ten year treasury note.

Speaker 13

And yeel on that reality is market polity remains so high, so it's difficult to know if we've seen a peak on the long end of the curve. We could see it tests five percent again. But we do think that once a FED is done hiking, and that's clear and economic growth slows, we expected the tenure to come back to words three and a half percent by the time we get to mid next year.

Speaker 2

Wow, So you think, I guess investors, certainly domestic investors are buying these bonds, but it doesn't look like there's any demand internationally even at five percent.

Speaker 3

What pushes us back down?

Speaker 2

Do we get our deficits and debt under control as a as a country, or just the slow down in the economy.

Speaker 13

It's more the slow down of the economy. We do know that there's a bit of a term permium that's being built in on along end of the curve, just given the concerns around the deficits. So what we really think is going to drive bonios lower is going to be a slower economy inflation of baiting. I mean you saw today in terms of PC, yes, headlined to surprise a little bit to the upside, but more importantly, core PCE continues to moderate. I mean you have here over

here cor PC at three point seven percent. That's right in line where the Fed had expected it to be at the end of the year. And so we're ahead of trend, and we think that that corp pc is going to come down even by another twenty five basis point by the time we get to the end of the year. And so that's partly why we think the Fed is done hiking, and that should help to sort of stabilize bondials and push them low, and we are

looking for a period of subtrain economic growth. We don't think that the momentum that we see in the third quarter is going to continue at the same pace, and so we think that GDP would come in one undid two percent by the time we get to the year end and into next year, and that's will help bring down bond yields.

Speaker 1

Blue Button, thank you very much. Today's a big energy day for investors NA day. We had Chevron and x On Mobile report their numbers. We heard at Bloomberg Television. We just heard from the ex chairman and CEO, Darren Woods. What's your call at ubs for energy? Still some room to go there for energy investing.

Speaker 9

We think.

Speaker 13

So we do like it on this pullback, and it has a lot to do with our core view and the outlook for well, let me we all know that global inventories continue to see jar down and there are multi year low just given the continuous stands by open plus the constraints supply, and we think that that's going

to continue into next year. And demand remains quite robust, and of course you know we have the ongoing conflict and the war in the Middle East that could put some upward pressure to oil prices, and so we think that Brent oil is going to get back above.

Speaker 9

Ninety and probably hover ninety five dollars into next.

Speaker 13

Year, and that should be supportive to the energy sector. We've seeing some weaknesses today just given the earnings in terms of concerns around refining more margins, and that's why we continue to prefer d MPs and some of the oil services companies within the sector.

Speaker 2

If we get into a recession, which stocks take the biggest hit?

Speaker 3

Do you think?

Speaker 2

Because last time we got worried about this market, it was interesting to see investors look to big growthy tech companies as almost safe havens.

Speaker 13

You know, I think in terms of like traditionally what get hits in a recessionary environments and more cyclical errors of the market. You know, financials have been a lot under a lot of pressure of the banks that provision.

Speaker 9

For an recessionary environment.

Speaker 13

But you could see an additional letdown as there will be increased concerns around credit and defaults on credit and delinquency picking up, or so you probably see those areas of cyclical errors of the market get hit in terms of sort of the quality growth names, particularly in tact.

Speaker 9

Remember, these companies have.

Speaker 13

Very strong balance sheet, their self fund in and so we would expect them to be able to weather the storm a little bit better.

Speaker 9

There are parts of tech that are quite defensive, included software.

Speaker 13

Recurrent revenues are there, and also parts of tech like cybersecurity that we think are more defensive play than sort of the cyclical semiconductors of tech.

Speaker 1

And Nattie, thank you so much for joining us. Really appreciate getting some of your time at Nattie levelle. She is the senior US equity strategist for Global Wealth Management. Over there at ubs.

Speaker 6

You're listening to the team Ken's are live program Bloomberg Markets weekdays at ten am eastering on Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business App, or listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts.

Speaker 1

Matt Miller Paul Sweeney live here in our Bloomberg Interactive Brokers Studio, streaming live on YouTube. I don't know what to do with this market, no idea, yields are higher? Can stocks work? You know, Tom's in his triple leverage all cash fun He's sleeping like a baby. But what do the rest of us do. Maybe our next guests can help help us out here. Alex Chaloff, co head of investment Strategies at Bernstein Private Wealth Management. He's based in Los Angeles, where we got him live here in

our Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio today. So that's good, Alex. What are you telling people? If I come up to you at a cocktail party tonight and I say, what's your market call? What do you got for me? T Bill and chill, T Bill and Chilsee that's Matt Miller's been calling that.

Speaker 2

Yeah, I like the ETF. How do you go about it? Well, I think there's a number of different ways. I mean, anything on the short end is going to pay you. You're not taking any risk, and you have the flex to do something different. If we get some I don't know if we will, but if we get some real dubbish language from Chair of Powell next week, then all of a sudden, it's off to the races and it's go time. So I think you want to have liquidity, you want to have an ability to flexa and do something.

Speaker 14

But I don't think it's binary. I don't think it's cash or something else. I think it's a mixture, and we're hopeful that Powell gives us a signal that it's okay to step a little bit out.

Speaker 2

But on the respect, does dubvish language from Powell next week? Does that just take the fed out of the equation for the seeable future because they're not going to do anything on rates. They're still going to be doing QT, but they're not going to up it. Is that what you want?

Speaker 11

Yeah, I don't.

Speaker 14

I mean, a dubbish language is like Nirvana. He's not saying it right, he's I mean, all we can hope for is we're thinking about, thinking about, thinking about so I we're prepared for thinking.

Speaker 2

About think about thinking about cutting or think about think about being done being done.

Speaker 1

Yeah, I mean our view is they're done.

Speaker 3

Yeah, he's not.

Speaker 14

Language is free, right, he can say whatever he wants in the presser and that's what he's going to do. He's going to be just as as hawkish as he's been and scare the heck out of everyone in the market. And that's just we have to live with that. So our expectation as they're done, but they won't tell you they're done until well after the fact. And that's why we're talking to clients about t bill and chill for now, but get ready to turn the dial. And there's not

going to be a green light. He's never going to say, hey, everybody, we're done. He's going to hint and hint and hint, and you've got to read through the lines. But if you're a long term investor, that's less important. It's more important to know that we're almost at the end. Whether we're right and he's done, or somebody else's right and they've got one more this, we're really close.

Speaker 5

To being done.

Speaker 1

Yep, that's kind of the call here. The question is you know how close? And so let's just focus on something a little bit more fundamental or smack in the middle of earning season here. Any takeaways that you guys are focusing on here or what are you looking forward to hear from these management teams.

Speaker 14

Yeah, it's still early, so you know, our earning scorecard isn't yet. I wish I was back here in a week because a busy week next week, not just the FED meeting, but a number of really big names.

Speaker 3

I think the.

Speaker 14

Biggest learning that's emerged from the early part of the earning season is how much companies who give poor guidance are getting beaten up. The guys that are delivering solid results, they're even getting the beats, and the majority of your beats, I mean, the beats are ahead of what they've been over the last couple of quarters. So feel good about that. But boy, the misses are getting clobbered, and so the guidance.

When a guidance is week, either in printed or in the calls, ye look out, it's I get.

Speaker 3

The same feeling I get.

Speaker 2

I get the feeling that if you meet or beat, you're okay, it's snow big deal. But if you miss, they're gonna take you to the woodhouse.

Speaker 14

Yeah, it's it's I mean, it's always been that way. But I think right now, just in your opening comments like what do you do with this market, I think of a poor guidance or uh, someone coming out and just saying, look, I think next year is gonna be tough, or even the first half of next year is gonna be tough. It's you're right, you are getting taken out.

Speaker 3

We've seen some big beats.

Speaker 2

I mean, if I look at S and P index EA go on the terminal two hundred and forty five out of the five hundred have reported on the S and P.

Speaker 3

Earning surprise seven point four percent. Ye, so big beats.

Speaker 2

And if I look down the list of you know who's done it, consumer discretionary is ripping. They're about fifteen percent over expectations. And if you look at just growth over the same quarter last year, it's also huge, you know, six point a five point eight percent, five point nine percent in terms.

Speaker 3

Of earnings growth.

Speaker 2

And if you look at consumer discretionary fifty four percent in terms of earnings growth of the same core last year. If you look at communications thirty five percent over the same corel last year.

Speaker 3

So they're doing well.

Speaker 2

Are we gonna see these kind of earnings seasons continue into twenty twenty four? A, we're gonna see you know, five six seven percent earnings growth?

Speaker 14

Well, first I thought you were gonna ask me, why isn't the market up on this incredible earning?

Speaker 3

So why the market's not up?

Speaker 2

You got yields that are off to the races, right offering as you say, T bill and chill.

Speaker 3

You got a lot of competition from yields.

Speaker 2

Plus you've got a rising dollar, plus you've got rising oil costs.

Speaker 14

So yeah, no, it makes sense. It makes sense that we're bouncing around, and I think you also have this specter of a recession out there. So there's two things that are going on. One is the cell side is talking about earnings and they really haven't budged their numbers much. We think that it's frankly, the buyside firms that aren't publishing, that aren't telling you what they're doing with their numbers.

They've taken them down. So we would expect to see some slow down in earnings the next couple of quarters. By the way, macro perspective, don't think we're going into recession. Think we get through, but earnings will slow from here. Whether that's this quarter or next quarter or Q two, we'll see, but it's it's definitely earning slowed down from here.

Speaker 2

By the way, Is this normal being in you know, a red hot economy looking back, but everybody kind of biting their fingernails and worrying.

Speaker 3

About a recession around the corner? Is that normal?

Speaker 6

Yeah?

Speaker 14

It's it's there's so many people out there that don't even know what a five percent tenure looks like, right that people have said, oh, wait, can the tenure really go? I mean, there's some people that think that's almost like the artificial ceiling, that's as high as it can go. Yes, this is normal, even if you go back to the early two thousands when the economy was steaming, not knowing the GFC was on right around the corner, but there was concern around have we overcooked this thing?

Speaker 2

I look, I go on Challenger talk dot com. You know, it's a forum for dodge buyers.

Speaker 15

And I'm not on them aft and and you know there'll be a headline, you know, Challenger sales are down, and somebody will be like, yeah, because these those economies and the crapper you know, And I'm.

Speaker 2

Like, really, yeah, five percent GDP growth, three and a half percent unemployment, This feels like a bad economy to you.

Speaker 6

It does.

Speaker 14

Yeah, And look at the participation rate is creeping up, and where like you said, wage growth has been consistent, consumers are spending. I think what that comment is a reaction to is the savings rate coming down. So coming out of COVID, all that money pumped into the system, everyone had bloated balance sheets up and down the well spectrum.

Now it's really the upper end of the well spectrum that has the dollars and the lower end is spent through and that's why you're starting to see credit card numbers pop up. So there really is a tail of two cities going on. At the upper end, everyone is comfortable t bill and chill. At the lower end, we've seen the reduction in savings and that's starting to you can you can feel it when.

Speaker 1

You guys do dip your toe back into the water. What are some of the sectors that you guys might.

Speaker 14

Be I think there's two ways to dip toe. One is into equities. The other, well, there's three equities, fixed income. I think there you're going to be traditional. I think if we get a slowdown in earnings, if rates stay high, you want to be with quality. You want to be with good balance sheets, you want to be with reliable cash flow. But I also think there's an incredible opportunity that exists in the private markets. One, because public plans big LPs are way over their skis with illiquidity and

they're selling like crazy. And two they've got no money to put into those markets for the next two maybe three years, and so the valuations are coming down there. And I think this is in primaries it's in secondaries, it's in private equity, it's in venture capital, it's in real estate, it's everywhere in the private mark used to be.

Speaker 1

It burns in running the alternative asset strategies. I was so talktales, give us your two cents on private credit. Matt and I have just been fascinated. We're about to quit. We're going to go open up a private credit. Yes.

Speaker 14

Yes, private credit has been incredible over this cycle. People thought in COVID, oh no, this is this is the end because a lot of the public BDCs were under pressure, but private credit through that made money in that market, did very well in twenty one, made money last year in twenty two, and I've seen private credit numbers so far this year that have double digits on them on a year to day basis. So look, they've weathered the storm.

It's all about underwriting. All about underwriting. If you're a conservative, you're gonna be fine. If you took crazy risk a couple years ago because you needed to win that deal, you're gonna be in trouble. YEP, isn't there definitely a double issues? Nobody's watching these guys.

Speaker 1

I wouldn't say nobody's watching those guys.

Speaker 14

I mean, we have a private credit business that we spend a whole lot of time really with our hands deep in it. I think others do as well. Yes, is the regulatory oversight different in the public markets? This is in private That's a risk, that's definitely a risk. But if you're with somebody that's a track record of success in and out of tough markets, I'm gonna say, you're gonna be fine.

Speaker 3

Paul, what are you doing?

Speaker 2

Are you calling for regulation before we start our shop, before we started out. I'm just waiting for some big deal, a couple of deals to blow up, and they we're.

Speaker 3

Gonna be like way, Elizabeth Warren, Please don't.

Speaker 14

You could have a couple of blow ups, But that actually creates opportunity because there's so much money on the sidelines waiting to rescue that. That's the thing that I think people miss. If we have a blip in private credit, it's going to be like a thirty second blip because there's so much money waiting to just get in there and get after it.

Speaker 2

All.

Speaker 1

Right, Alex, good job, I just promoted you. During the course of this discussion from cohead of Investment Strategies, to chief Investment Officer of Bernstein Private Wealth Management. So congratulations, thank you, thank you. We appreciate that you're based in LA. Anytime you're in New York, you're welcome. Come back in love. I'm hearing your market call here.

Speaker 6

You're listening to the tape CANSUR live program Bloomberg Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the tune in app, Bloomberg dot com, and the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

Speaker 16

Welcome to our Bloomberg TV and radio audiences worldwide. Shares of Intel popping today is the chipmaker predicted a return to sales growth in the full quarter, fuel by rebound in the personal computer market, but also a more competitive product lineup. Joining us now is Intel CEO Pat eel Singer, And look, Pat, there was quite a long list of

things that investors cheered right. This is the third quarter where the market's basically said, Pat, we believe you on the turnaround story, but on your to do list, where do you think you are and what do you think you have left? To do on that turnaround story.

Speaker 17

Yeah, thanks Ed, And you know, overall, hey, it was a great as we said, just a clean beat and raise on all the financial metrics, but even more important was the operational performance. And you know, as we said, hey, getting back to process leadership, and we delivered key milestones and we still have at least another year or two to go on getting that done, but major milestones.

Speaker 11

Starting to deliver Foundry customers.

Speaker 17

You know, I promised one at the start of the year, and now we have three on our most advanced process technology, major packaging wins, and of course it's the product execution, you know, clean launch of the AIPC generation, but also the server business getting back to profitability ahead of schedule and a little bit better performance there and delivering the AI Everywhere message with our accelerators our server product line. So a really excellent quarter and I'm just so grateful

for the Intel team. It's been a journey and we are clearly coming back.

Speaker 16

A pat You've talked to investors and indeed to Caroline and I about these new customers for the foundry business. When do we get names? When are you going to announce who these customers are?

Speaker 11

Well? You two things there.

Speaker 17

Ed One is not generally the practice of the foundry industry for the foundry to be declaring their customer names, so one is not practice. And also many of the customers consider it confidential and part of their competitive advantage and how and what technologies they choose. So I can't promise names, but we're going to characterize them as best

we can. And as we said, these are high performance and AI customers, and we've really seen the surge of interest in using the Intel technologies and foundry for different AI offerings in the marketplace. And that's both a wafer but also a packaging and this idea of advanced packaging. I mean, in addition to the three on the wafer side, we had two advanced packaging customers in AI and that revenue materializes more rapidly and six more in the pipeline.

So overall a really substantial look orter and the AI space in particular has been the customers that have seen the most enthusiasm.

Speaker 18

Let's talk about the AI space because the running of AI models is where you see your future. It's not all just about the foundation models. It's actually the running of them, not the building. But can you just relieve some of the anxiety coming from investors about a lack of clarity over data center future. And indeed, what is it that they need to hear from you? What more can you articulate that really makes it clear to them that you're going to be front and center in the AI race.

Speaker 17

Yeah, thanks, Kerr, And you know, really, you know, first let's characterize what we're talking about in this idea of creating you know, these frontier or foundation models is described versus using right and the training and the inferencing against those models, and I sort of compare it to like weather models. Not that many people generate weather models, but a lot of people use them. And that's how we

think about this next phase of AI. How do we make this inferencing or the use of the models broadly available. And that's going to be you know, in the client right we talked about the AI PC. It's going to be at the edge right in retail and manufacturing and supply chains. But it's also going to be an on premise data centers. And as we've said, instead of taking my data to the cloud, I want to bring the AI to my data center where the data is already and finally work in the cloud, and you.

Speaker 11

Know from the data center proper.

Speaker 17

As your question talks about, Hey, you know, we knew we were going to lose some market share here, right Those losses happened last year and they're sort of playing out of the marketplace. But our roadmap is strong, and we over executed in the quarter on our next gen ur Gen four product that did a bit better than we thought and a lot of AI use cases in this area of inferencing. The next generation Gen five, we're already ramping that in production and that's going to get

announced in December. But next year's products, we're already seeing great health and we're ahead of schedule in those and those really improve our competitiveness. And the twenty five products will go into fab in the first quarter of next year. So our whole roadmap and execution has really improved, and we start to see ourselves regaining market share in twenty four in that area. And I think that will be

sort of the final piece of the turnaround story. When the market sees, okay, data center is backstrong, they're winning in.

Speaker 11

The AI space.

Speaker 17

You know, that'll be the end of the turnaround story and people say Okay, they did it.

Speaker 18

We'll go back to that building that training of data. Can you talk to a little about stability AI. Of course you've got to deal to build that AI supercomputer. Was that then really going to you for ultimately what Gaudy can provide over what in video would or is it that you wanted to really be sort of offering them some carrots in the situation to be able to be helping with the training of the models.

Speaker 11

Yeah, great question.

Speaker 17

And you know now with Gudi, we're now delivering performance and benchmarks that are as good as the best in the industry. So we've gotten our performance there. You know, there was also some of this work that you know, the models were created and much of the software industry was working, you know, on the n video platform, so we had to do some of the software work to get those running on the Gaudy platform. And they're looking for more cost effective choices and ones that are supply

chain available in the industry. And as we're ramping our Goudi product line, we're getting that software work done. You know, they're priced more competitively. Customers are saying, wow, I can do that work and do it at a much lower power performance envelope than the alternatives and have a much more cost effective model training and inferencing at scale. Okay, you're seeing a real surge of interest, and as I said,

we doubled our pipeline of customers this quarter. You know when we, like others in the industry, are now supply chain constrained and we're racing to catch up to that demand on our GUDI product line.

Speaker 16

For a Bloomberg radio and television audience worldwide, we're speaking to the CEO of Intel, Pat Gelsinger. Pat, the story of this week has been chip companies entering the PC processor market on architecture, how do you hold off those newcomers, you know, attention for example one Apple this coming Monday, and they have done well in that domain.

Speaker 17

Yeah, and I think of the AI you know, PC as an exciting category and this is one that we announced. We've been the first company on that and we're now ramping our first generation AIPC products called the Core Ultra. So others are talking about what they might do in a year or two years. We're ramping products in the marketplace.

Today we announced over one hundred is vs in our AI Acceleration program, so they're coming on board and before others have their products even shipping in the marketplace.

Speaker 11

We'll be launching our next generation.

Speaker 17

Our Lunar Lake product, which we've already demonstrated for next year, and Panther Lake, our twenty five product. We're sending that into fab on our leadership, Intel eighteen A process Technology and Q one. So I feel like we have a very strong roadmap. And Hey, the idea of an ARM based PC, you know, they've always been sort of niche and low end, with the exception of Apple, and there it's not ARM, it's Apple and their ecosystem. So for the broader windows our market, you know, it's always been

pretty low end and insignificant in the bigger context. And as long as we deliver our roadmap, I feel very confident that it's others surge into the AIPC space. You know, this is a lift to the overall PC market and will be uniquely positioned to benefit from that.

Speaker 16

Pat Going back just a second to stability in the AI supercomputer. That's kind of in the assembled component domain. But are you saying or are you able to confirm that's a paid relationship with stability to phaise you for use of Goudy.

Speaker 17

Oh yeah, yeah, this is a major customer and we'll be building that with them, of course, working closely with them, but this is a paid customer relationship.

Speaker 11

Yeah.

Speaker 17

We also see quite another set around our OEMs. We announced the major partnership with Dell right for not only Xeon's but also Goudy's as they come on premise and their cloud offerings.

Speaker 11

You know, we've seen a.

Speaker 17

Big upsurge in Goudy interest in the Intel Developer Cloud. We had a five x increase in the developers on our developer cloud, much of that on the Goudi platform. And then I said, we saw, you know, well over a billion dollars last quarter. We've approximately doubled that this quarter of Goudy demand worldwide, and those are largely paid aid customer engagements. So overall, we're just seeing a surge of interest with Stability, AI, Dell, and many others.

Speaker 16

Pat We every earnings look to your forecast for the PC market, and you're slightly more positive than consensus in terms of literally how many PCs you think will ship around the world this year. I guess part of that is baked into your sales forecast for the current period as well, what gives you that confidence and why is it that consumers will return to buying PCs.

Speaker 17

Yeah, and there's probably three different factors there, you know. One is I say, hey, we gave this two hundred and seventy million ish PCs being sold through this year, and we said that earlier in the year. Many thought that we were too optimistic. Hey, we look at it today and we're almost spot on with our accuracy on that forecast. Second, we've seen the industry, you know, not

just Intel, but the industry overall. Inventory levels are now healthy, you know, and we look at our selling rate versus sellout rate, you know, the product is selling through. I'd also say, hey, we're off to a good start in Q four. We're a couple of weeks into the quarter, and as I said on the earnings call, really good start to Q four as well. And you know, seasonality is a bit above in Q four historical levels. We also have things like Windows ten end of service coming

from Microsoft. You know, Microsoft's about to release their copilot products.

Speaker 11

But I'd say the sizzle in the.

Speaker 17

Marketplace is around this AIPC broad new use cases for the PC, and I've compared it to the Centrino moment of twenty years ago when Centrino really ushered Wi Fi at scale into the industry, and we think that's exactly what's going to happen with the AIPC. It will be a driver of new applications and use cases for the PC and bringing a bit more excitement, a bit acceleration, more users coming into the marketplace because it's going to give significant new capabilities to PE users.

Speaker 18

Is that what gives you a gross margin level of sixty percent? Again, is that where the confidence comes from.

Speaker 17

Well, to get our overall gross margins up above sixty percent, I need the whole business to improve, Carolyn. Obviously we're making good progress in the PC, you know, I also need to improve my factory network.

Speaker 11

And as we get back to leadership.

Speaker 17

We finished this super aggressive five nodes in four years.

Speaker 11

You know, I'm churning through.

Speaker 17

Capital very rapidly to get back to leadership. That's a big factor getting the data center business healthy. Going back to one of your earlier questions, another factor in getting back to.

Speaker 11

Our margin structures.

Speaker 17

One of the other things we did this quarter was also have great operational success on our cost saving initiatives, and we said you know, we would result in three billion savings.

Speaker 11

You know, we've also cleaned up the company.

Speaker 17

I bexited ten businesses since I've been here, and now we think we're finished with that phase and we just get focused on growing the company again to the future. So part of its growth, part of it's this focus areas across the businesses. Part of it is just increased operational discipline. But this quarter's results were well on our way to accomplishing that.

Speaker 18

And you talk of operations there and we didn't get time to talk about it, but we know that you do indeed have operations in Israel, and we think of your own employees and your infrastructure there at this time, Pat, So thank you very much for spending some time with us and walking us through your numbers. Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger.

Speaker 6

That you're listening to the tape cansur live program Bloomberg Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

Speaker 1

At Miller Paul Sweeney live here on our Bloomberg Interactive Brooker's Studio streaming live on YouTube as well. I want to bring our next guest, Macaz. We've got some supportant stuff to talk about. Barry Ridholts, host of Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio, is also the chief executive officer, a chief investment officer and founder of It's Wealth Management Plus Plus.

Speaker 2

He's a Jeep driver, which is why I thought we should bring him on because we're going to talk about what I'm driving this week.

Speaker 1

What are you driving this week?

Speaker 2

A Jeep Wrangler Rubicon three nine two, which is Does.

Speaker 1

That mean anything to you?

Speaker 11

Barry?

Speaker 19

Yeah, I actually have an old twenty thirteen Rubicon, which you know, when the apocalypse comes, that's the car I'll take. Because as amusing as some of the go fast cars that Matt and I both like, the fun thing about the Jeep is it's kind of unstoppable. I mean, it's just really, really fun.

Speaker 3

It's so much fun to drive.

Speaker 2

And actually I hadn't driven the Jeep for years and years when I got into the.

Speaker 1

Driver's seat of this beast, and it is those are on YouTube are seeing it right now. It is awesome looking it is.

Speaker 2

Yeah, it's I mean, I love the red one that they gave me in the press car. But it has a six point four V eight, the same engine that's in my Challenger, So just mountains of torque and horsepower. And when I got in the freeway, I just put the pedal down and I forgot that jeep steering it like you have to turn the steering wheel a few revolutions before the tires no that the car wants to change direction.

Speaker 3

And it's not a normal car, so it was.

Speaker 2

A little scary at first, but after a day of getting used to it, I was like, man, this is so much fun to drive. It's a it's a different experience than driving a regular car, just in the way you sit, the way it operates, the way it rolls like it's it's different.

Speaker 19

Plus plus it's got a drag coefficient of I think a hundred.

Speaker 3

Yeah it's a brick.

Speaker 19

It's a brick, right, It's it's literally that. So you need four hundred horse powers. And the car that I'm driving now could not be further opposite of the designer. Right.

Speaker 11

They have the.

Speaker 19

Nismo Z, which is a little it's the new version of the Z their track Nissan Z their track version of it. With First of all, it's very slippery. It's just a tear drop that slips through the air. And that is the polar opposite when it comes to steering, very little input needed, very precise steering. You used to have to spend multiple six figures to get steering this good. It's shocking how much fun this car is for.

Speaker 3

How yeah, I shall clarify.

Speaker 2

So, Barry's also test driving a car this week, and you actually have the pre production version of the Z.

Speaker 3

I drove the Z.

Speaker 2

We're showing pictures of the one I drove, which I absolutely fell in love with, although I will say that part of the affair that I had with this little Nissan Z was the manual transmission, Oh yeah, which was so much fun. I mean, I thought it was as good as easily as good as a as a nine on line.

Speaker 1

And by the way, shout out to the courtyard of a Bloomberg Global headquarters film. It makes a great spot to showcase a car.

Speaker 2

But Barry, so you're driving the souped up version, it's really a track car, the Nismo version.

Speaker 3

What do you think of it?

Speaker 19

Do you like it so about ten years ago, I had the original Nissan three seventy Z and that was kind.

Speaker 5

Of a GT.

Speaker 19

It was a stick shift, beautiful car, a little sexier than this version, but it was a GT. It's kind of big, kind of heavy in about three hundred and thirty horse power.

Speaker 1

This car looks much.

Speaker 19

Better in person than it does in the photos. It's very purpose built, it's very focused. As much as I prefer a stick shift, this four hundred and twenty horse power version with the nine speed dual clutch transmission. Every time you step on the gas it's like you poked a hive of angry hornets and it it's just a lot of fun and for honestly air for normally this sort of performance. Sixty thousand dollars, you're looking at use

cars a new version of this. I actually took the car over to my local detail wrap shop that does you know, does car washes and raps and things like that.

Speaker 1

The PAFs when nuts.

Speaker 19

They lost their mind. First of all, this is like there are none in the country. I mean, I'm I've been very careful because I don't want to damage the only Nismo Z in the United States. But second, you get up to extra legal speeds quite rapidly, and.

Speaker 3

So and the sound eggs you on.

Speaker 2

So I got I drove that for a couple of days before Barry got in it, and I the one thing is the sound makes you want to go faster, no matter how fast you're going.

Speaker 3

I love the sound of the engine.

Speaker 6

Yeah.

Speaker 19

Yeah, it's angry and it's it urges you to go, and it is you know, when you see the pictures, it kind of looks a little plain, and then you see it in person and it's like, oh, this is really a very handsome car. I found it very planted and very not a punishing rod. Typically a track car, you know, you feel the lines on the highway. This I drove home and bumpered a bumper traffic from New York City for about an hour and a half and

it was not uncomfortable. You put it in standard mode, in regular mode and it's sort of sedate, and then you put it into sport or Sport plus and you know, you awaken the demons within. It's a lot of car, and it's a lot of car for the money.

Speaker 5

Yeah.

Speaker 2

So that so the Nissan Z I think we can agree is a great bargain and I think it's a portie Caman competitor easy even though the engines in the front not in the middle.

Speaker 19

They they describe it more as a Mustang or a narrow Challenger.

Speaker 1

It's a race car.

Speaker 2

It's not a muscle car, you know, and those those I know have evolved into race cars, but they're still mus Camaro certainly still a muscle car very much. But I want to goin out though, Barry that the Jeep, on the other hand, it is not a bargain in terms of the price. So the Jeep Wrangler Rubicon three ninety two ninety three thousand dollars to start, that's before a delivery fee.

Speaker 1

That's not a typical Jeep bud.

Speaker 3

It's so expensive.

Speaker 2

And what I wanted to ask you about, Barry, what do you think about this inflation, which, by the way, it's not going to turn around, but Jeep, it to me is even it's another level on the kind of a new car price inflation that we've seen. They're trying to do something I feel like from Stilanti's headquarters, they're trying to make Jeep into a luxury brand.

Speaker 19

So you know, after the pandemic, when you went out and looked at various sports cars, ferraris, Porsches, things like that. You what you ended up having is used cars were going for the same or more than new cars. Very much a pandemic related event. But go back to the ten to fifteen years before the pandemic.

Speaker 1

You look at a.

Speaker 19

Brand new twenty fourteen Jeep Rubicon, you know, gussied up about forty grand. You look at a one year old Jeep Rubicon about forty grand. So jeeps are notorious for holding their value. And this isn't you know you want a GT three nine to eleven. They only make so many of them. They're cranking out a lot of Jeeps, and despite that, even before the pandemic, they weren't easy to get. There were no discounts to be found. There are no bargains in the used car lots of Jeeps.

So we'll see if the new Bronco and some of the other competitors are going to take a little a little bit of market share away from them, and maybe the prices will shift. But that was always shocking my twenty thirteen Rubicon. I'm comfortable buying a salvage title. I don't recommend people buy a savage title.

Speaker 1

But it was a flood car.

Speaker 19

I just replaced all the electronic harnesses and for half of what I would normally pay for a used Jeep, I had got a ten thousand mile Jeep. I mean it was orange or it's still orange. I just got to get used to that color. But that's the thing about Jeep. It's a cult and people love them.

Speaker 1

They love all right, Barry awesome stuff, Barry it Halts, host of Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio. What in the world is Matt Miller driving?

Speaker 3

Heat?

Speaker 1

Drives pretty much anything he wants, Folks, Let's be honest.

Speaker 2

Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast platform you prefer.

Speaker 1

I'm Matt Miller.

Speaker 2

I'm on Twitter at Matt Miller nineteen seventy three and not Falseweny.

Speaker 1

I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney Before the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio.

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