LaSalle's Gimbel: Overtime Rule May Boost Unemployment (Audio) - podcast episode cover

LaSalle's Gimbel: Overtime Rule May Boost Unemployment (Audio)

Jun 30, 201611 min
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(Bloomberg) -- Taking Stock with Kathleen Hays and Pimm Fox. GUEST: National labor market expert, Tom Gimbel, founder & CEO of LaSalle Network, on jobless claims and trends in the labor market: the enactment of the new overtime rule and increased minimum wage could cause unemployment to creep up.

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Broadcasting live to New York, Bloomberg eleven, Rio to Washington, d C, Bloomberg to Boston, Bloomberg twelve, under to San Francisco, Bloomberg nine to the country Studies Exam Channel one nineteen, and around the globe the Bloomberg Radio Plus athen Bloomberg dot com. This is taking stock. Look like we might have a deal in the making. Today we learned that mondal Is International, a global food and snack maker, was making a takeover offer for hers she uh and it

was according to a person familiar with the matter. We were waiting to have it confirmed. It would have made the world's largest candy maker. Instead, we are learning that that deal has been rejected by Hershey. Catherine Cadriell have more on that in just a minute from the newsroom. I'm Kathleen Hayes, my co host Pim Fox on vacation, and we are going to be speaking in this half

hour to Bloomberg's deal maker correspondent Alex Sherman. He'll talk to us about what was behind the Mondelez bid and what means what it means now if Hershe has said no, thank you, well I'm not gonna say no Thank you to Katherine carry. I'm getting right over to her in the Bloomberg newsroom for a Bloomberg Business Flash. Thank you, Kathleen, and let me see if I can give you a

little more information about that Hershey story. Well, Hershey has confirmed that it received preliminary non binding indications of interest from Mondelis to acquire the company for a mix of cash and stock consideration and a total about one seven dollars a share for her She shares. Now hers She had been up as much as earlier today and it's

stock is still halted pending more news. Hershe um had Hershey Trust owns one of the Class B shares which hold ten voting rights per share, and that's according to Bloomberg datam And we will of course have more information as it becomes available. Well, the global rally continues today. Is policymakers signal further steps to buff the impact of

Britain's decision to leave the European Union. Mark Kearney indicated the Bank of England would cut interest rates within months as a central bank tries to shield the UK economy. David Kelly, chief global strategist at JP Morgan Funds, on the impact of the Brexit vote. I think there's still a lot of negativity in global markets. One of the things we've seen as we've seen a bounce back in US stocks, but we're still seeing very low yields on

US bonds of anything. The bond markets, which was out of whack to start with, is even more out of whack right now. I think what people are missing is that there is a pickup going on in the US economic growth right now. Ten Your treasury is currently up ten thirty seconds with the yield of one point four seven percent. And now let's get an update of some of the other stories were following today on Bloomberg Radio. Thank you, Catherine from the Bloomberg Newsroom. I'm Julie Hyman.

One week after the Brexit vote, former London Mayor Boris Johnson says he will not run to succeed David Cameron as Conservative Party leader and Prime Minister. Outing consulted and in view of the circumstances in Parliament, I have concluded that person Johnson helped lead the campaign for Britain to leave the EU. He was considered a favorite to replace Prime Minister David Cameron, who was resigning in a few months.

A Turkish official says the death toll from a triple suicide attack at Istanbul's at a Turk airport has climbed to at least forty four. The country's interior minister says nineteen four nationals were among the victims. More than two hundred and thirty others were wounded. Secretary of State John Kerry unveiled the twenty sixteen Trafficking in Persons Report at the State Department today. The report assesses government efforts around

the world to combat human trafficking. We're talking about slavery, modern day slavery that still today claims more than twenty million victims on any given time. This year's report includes narratives for one and eighty eight countries and territories include being the United States. A New Siena College pole has found New York voters are unimpressed with a series of

ethics reforms pushed by lawmakers and Governor Andrew Cuomo. More than half said the measures, which include new rules on lobbying, disclosures and spending by independent political groups, will not reduce state government corruption. Global News twenty four hours a day, powered by more than twenty six hundred journalists and analysts in more than one hundred twenty countries. From the Bloomberg newsroom.

I'm Julie Hyman. This is Bloomberg Catherine, thank you, and now let's get a quick update of the benchmark style industrial averages up two hundred points one point one percent, trading at seventeen thousand, eight hundred nine one SMP five hunded up twenty two points, again at one point one percent. It's trading at two thousand ninety two naszac hire by forty seven points, again of one percent, trading at forty

twenty six. West Texas intermediate crude oil down a dollar fifty five of barrel three point one percent to forty eight thirty two spackled down five dollars ten cents. Announcer and that's a Bloomberg business flash. He's taking stock with Kathleen Hayes and Finn Fox on Bloomberg Radio. The health

of labor market. It will continue to be at the top of the Fed of Reserves list as it continues to watch the economy, the impact of global shocks like the Brexit vote of the UK to leave the European Union. But again it's the domestic economy. Many say that will most determine what the FED does next if it's on indefinite hold, if it even considers a rate hike this year at all. Let's bring in Tom Gimble now for

a more in depth look at the labor market. He's founder and CEO of La Salle Network, one of the leading staffing and recruiting firms in the country, based in Chicago. Tom, welcome to the show. So, if you were just looking at jobless claims as a measure of the health of the economy, you'd say, whoa, they're staying at this and it's nice low range, you know, anywhere from two D fifty thousand to you know, over two eighty, but a

very low range. But if you listen to Janet Yale in the FED chair, if you look at other indicators, uh, there are more job openings, but somehow they don't get to field. There's a lack of skilled workers, it seems. Janet Yellen talks about wages not rising enough to suggest that the slack is really being taken up. From your advantage point at a recruiting firm, what do you see, Yeah,

there's definitely a skills gap. There's no doubt about that that the jobs that are in high demand, as always in a in an interesting economy like we're in sales, is always going to be in high demand. But what we've seen over the past fifteen years is this change to becoming uh. You know, when it went from uh fifteen years ago was oh, are we going from a manufacturing country to a services business based country? And now it's gone from a services based company to a technology country.

And what I'm seeing is is that the skills gap in in really educated talented developers and architects and infrastructure folks in the technology side just isn't there to keep up with the demand. And that's why those jobs continually um you'll see on on reports is very high paying, growth oriented industries where we're not seeing as much as in the lower level stuff. So now we're gonna end up happening. My my take is, and for the first time, I'm getting a little bit more concerned. I don't think

we're going to see interest rate hikes this year. If we're seeing minimum wage increase in municipality, state level, and federal level soon, and then we're also seeing in December one of this year, we're going to see the UM overtime exemption salary point increase from twenty four thousand and changed to almost forty eight thousand dollars, and we're gonna start seeing unemployment creep back up again because companies will say,

I can't afford to pay more. That's exactly right. So I think that the goal was that the administration was, let's increase wages for all Americans by saying, if you're working more than forty hours a week and you're making over twenty five thousand dollars a year, you should be getting overtime. What's gonna end up happening is people are going to keep people at forty hours a week. They'll maybe higher one or two more at lower level lower salaries,

which won't be a wage increase. Unemployments already at five percent how much lower connect going with qualified people, and or they'll lay those people, often the only higher one person back at a higher salary of fifty. We're not going to see UH any any huge changes across the board, and I think the actual end result will be an increase in unemployment. Is one of the challenges of this economy as it moves to more UH technology and technology

is now part of everything. Right, it's in how you might outsource some of your jobs to you know, an online payroll services firm something like that, right, So eliminates the need for you to have a certain kind of workers. And it does that across a lot of companies. So if everybody is doing that, that's one kind of job that's gone, right, I mean that is telecon technology has you know, it's a sort that seems to cut two ways. How big of an issue is that for labor market, Well,

that's a big issue. But taking even a different approach, so even if you get to a point where UM technology go into the retail sector and you get restaurants that are gonna phase out cashiers and they're gonna have kiosks, which is already happening. So but then what you have is that eliminates that job. But now there's service jobs of people that have to repair those kiosks, right, And that's a job that that a human being has to do.

But there's a skills gap between somebody who is working in a factory putting bolts on a car and somebody you can go in and work at a kiosk and fix them. Technology, so we're really at a shortage of training and development in this country, of course. But you'll find in many factories now though, is those jobs are very much more sophisticated technologically when you're when you're putting

a cardigo than they used to be. But specifically to your example, that kiosk and you know iPads instead of people waiting on you, that replaces what maybe five six seven workers and you only are you only need one person to service the kiosk. Seems to me that's the issue. You don't create as many new jobs as you potentially destroy, there's actually no doubt about that, but it does create jobs in other areas, and that's where the skillet skill

gaps are. So you need to have more tablets being created for those they're gonna wear out more because people are using them. So there's more development, more technology, more manufacturing of the actual device in whatever country that's in, hopefully here but maybe some place else. So there are

jobs that are being created, but they're different job. Okay, Tom, what would you tell the Federals or what would you tell Janet Yellen from your vantage point in this in this labor market industry, what she should have shouldn't do. You got fifteen seconds to tell me. You gotta keep you I gotta keep interest rates flat. And so I was a huge proponent of her raising interest rates at

the end of last year. I'm glad that happened. Now where we're at, I think we're gonna get an increase in unemployment and she's got a whole flat Tom Gimble, thank you so very much, first time on the show. Thank you for joining me. He's founder and CEO of Lassalt Network, located in Chicago. He said, because of this new overtime rule and rising minimum wages, we're going to see some people out of work. At least that's what he sees as a head of a recruiting company, one

of the biggest in the country. I'm Kathleen Hayes. This is taking Stock, and this is Bloomberg Bloomer. Taking Stock is brought to you by Willoughby's since eighteen ninety eight, New York City's boutique camera store. For a precision crafted hostile blot and like a camera's plus a full selection of go pro action adventure cameras. Willoughby's corner Fifth Avenue and thirty first Street,

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