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Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney. Alongside my co host Matt Miller.
Every business day we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along with essential market Moven News.
I'm the Bloomberg Markets podcast called Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and at Bloomberg dot Com Slash podcast. Jess Metton and Paul Sweeney your life here in our Bloomberg Interactive Brooker's studio. It is day for I guess of the truce or just the cessation or halt? I guess in hostilities between Israel and hamas and some hostage exchanges are taking place. That's the good news, and question happens is what happens now? Wendy Schiller, professor at Brown University,
joins us. Wendy, I, you know the reporting I'm seeing is that President Biden had you know, had been pushing for and continues to push for this pause in fighting, maybe get some more hostages out. Where do you think we are right now? Where's the administration right now on its policy with Israel and Hamasen.
I think the Administration maintains its support for Israel in the sense of defending itself, but they also recognize not only the loss of life of civilians in Gaza, but that the international community is not on this side of this issue.
And as the.
Casualties mount in Gaza, you know, the United States will then have to defend Israel's action without having really a lot of control over what Israel does, which is a fairly precarious position for President Biden to be in and for the United States to be in. You don't want to waiver on your support, but you don't want to have to be the apologist or the explainer for another country's military offensive. So this is the big question mark, how do you describe it?
Do you keep saying that.
Israel's defending itself or is there a point at which you say, well, we believe Israel's gone far enough. I don't see Biden never saying that, but that's what he's going to have to do in private conversations.
With a lot of European leaders.
Where does Congress stand when it comes to foreign aid?
Where talking about where Congress stands is almost impossible these days, right, because we have Democrats and Republicans. Democrats controlling the Senate, Republicans pseudo controlling the House, but really internally divided on this very question jes of foreign aid. And you have a very large contingent of the Republican majority that does not want to give money, especially to Ukraine, but now sort of thinks, okay, maybe not even Israel.
Why are we.
Giving billions of dollars of taxpayer money to foreign nations for conflicts we can't control? And as that grows within the Republican caucus, it will get more and more difficult for Speaker Johnson to get any kind of foreign aid bill through the House.
When do you assert any reason to believe that the Biden administration and the State Department are not on the same page as it relates to our policy towards Israel and what's happening there.
In the end of the day, Biden is the commander in chief and the President of the United States who runs the cabinet. So the State Department may have internal disagreements, but I don't think there's an anti question that the Secretary of State is on the same page as Biden.
Whether the Secretary of State is trying to move Biden in one way or the other, you know, we're not sure.
But in the end of the day, the State Department still reports to the President of the United States. Even civil servants still report to the commander in chief and the executive So there can't be a lot of public disconnect.
And if there is, that's going to be a job in the Sect State to clean up. For President Biden.
What would be the next immediate steps when it comes to Israel trying to prolong its truce with Tomas.
Well, this is a big question mark.
You know, what is the strategic position of Israel in terms of security?
You know, can they afford to prolong the cease fire. Yes they can.
If they are getting ten fifteen hostages released every day every other day, they can justify that cease fire to their own people. Remember, they still have a lot of explaining to do about how security was so lapsed.
That they allowed this attack to happen. Now, when I say allow, I'm not saying.
That they know invited them in, but nonetheless irresponsible for national security. And they still have to explain that they haven't had any chance to do that because they've been on the offensive. But if the ceasefire continues to hold, then I think the Israeli people will say, how did this happen in the first place, and what are you doing to keep us safe now? And that's constant pressure on the Israeli government to continue its offensive in Gaza.
Well, I think probably one of the challenge, or one of the questions that I don't have an answer for, is that if the is Real government, how do I define mission accomplished? You can't get rid of a terrorist organization per se, and that's kind of the end goal they've set up here. So they're kind of in a box here. How do you think they try to play that?
Well, Paul, I mean I think if you're of a certain age, you remember George W. Bush standing on Air Force carrier, I believe his carrier saying, you know, we're done, and we were a long way, right, at least ten to fifteen years away, I from being done in Iraq.
So I think that is a fundamental question.
I think the idea of what is a status quo that will allow Israel to defend itself consistently?
What is the security status quo?
And you know, eradicating I'm assle with something that's who said, It's unclear how long that's in yon, who lasts after this immediate military engagement is over, he may be replaced. And the question is what is justifiable in terms of Israeli security? And that's going to be a question that Biden will have to continue to answer and the Israeli government will have to tell the world, you know, what is enough?
And you're right, it is very difficult to quote unquote eradicate an organization.
That was duly elected in Gaza has been the government in Gaza, and it's almost impossible to weed out.
Without you know, very very large civilian casualties.
Walk us through what's going on in the House as it was voting to limit those funds to Iran.
Yeah, so the funds for Iran is really a messaging failure by the Biden administration and a messaging win for the GOP. This is Iranian money that they made by selling fuel on the international market, and it was sort of kept aside. They couldn't have it's like you know, South Korea had it, other people had it. It's and
we are allowing it to be released back to Iran. However, the Biden administration has put a stop on the vast majority of that money and will not allow it to be released until there's no visible evidence of Iranian encouragement of hamas R Hesblah in the Middle East.
So that could be a long way and a long time for Iran to wait for that money.
But the Biden administration has gotten caught on that messaging because of the deal they made theoretically for the release of American hostages in Iran. So this is the problem governments have when they make deals to negotiate for hostages. This is what Israel is doing right now, what America is doing, and the problem is Iran is actively funding, as far as we know, a lot of terrorist organizations which could pose a security threat to the United States.
So it puts the Bide administration in a very difficult position.
When you mentioned the speaker, Johnson's in a familiarly a familiarly difficult situation and trying to get everybody together to move, particularly in a Republican Party here to move in one direction as it relates to some of these foreign policy issues. Any reason to believe that he can in fact succeed where maybe his prep predecessors did not, and that includes aid for Israel and Ukraine.
I think, Paul there's a very short window for him to succeed, literally till the end of the year, or as we might say, till the Iowa primary. You know, when Trump if Trump, When if Trump wins his first primary, he becomes the spokesperson for the Republican Party, and there is no voice louder than Donald Trump's, particularly when he'll start to win the primary, and then Johnson has almost.
No maneuvering room.
And you can imagine that Trump will be adamant against spending money except perhaps to help Israel, depends on their calculations. But that's going to make things so much more difficult. It'll be twenty twenty four, it'll be technically an election year. Primary season gears up. Even though most people have to register to run in a primary by the end of this year, there are some loopholes in a lot of states.
So members of Congress, particularly Republicans, will be watching what Trump says, not as much what Johnson says, and I just think his maneuvering room almost goes to zero.
So, Wendy, do you think that the GOP the Republican Party is ready to support and back another run by President Bush? I mean President Trump.
I think talking about the Republican Party as a model with the group is a difficult thing to do right now as we are seeing cracks in.
The Democratic Party, so very difficult to know.
I think there is excitement brewing among the wing of the party that doesn't want to see Trump, either because they don't like Trump's or they think Trump will lose for Nikki Haley, and the jockeying right now is DeSantis Haley. DeSantis is really getting his endorsements in line in Iowa.
And if he can make a strong enough showing against Trump and better than Haley, then I think he's back in the conversation and I think if you have viability with either of those two candidates, then I think it's not quite as certain that Trump ends up being the nominee.
All Right, Wendy, thank you so much for joining us. Really appreciate it. Wendy Schiller, she's a professor at Brown University, and we can talk to Professor Schiller about a wide range of political and geopolitical issues as well. So a lot going on in the market light and a lot just it's going to take place early over the next several weeks.
You're listening to the Team Ken's are Live program Bloomberg Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business app, or listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts.
All right, s and P five hundred. It's up almost nineteen percent year to date.
It's up about ten one alone is it's up over eight percent.
Exactly, It's and so but a lot of people I just don't feel like there's that conviction behind it. And I think maybe it's just because it's not you know, you back out the magnificent seven and then it's like, all right, we're five to six percent. So I'm just not sure we go here, particularly as we think about twenty twenty four. But our next guest, I know she has an opinion. Katie Kaminski. She's a chief research strategist at Alpha Simplex. Katie, thanks so much for joining us here.
I mean, what do you make of what we've seen in the equity markets this year and how does that set you up for your twenty twenty four outlook.
Oh that's a good question. I mean, I think the biggest shock we've seen is just that divergence. I mean, you look at the numbers and they look good, but the truth is the average company hasn't done as well, and so I think people are nervous about this excitement that we're having this relief rally. But at the same time they're saying, why is cooler data or weakness actually a good sign? I think we have a lot of things we have to digest right now.
Well, Katie, you're not only a strategist, you're also a co portfolio manager, So I want to hear how are you advising clients to position going into yurine and what do they buy, what do they sell going into next year?
Well, I think the biggest thing we've focused on is fixed income, and that's where we've come to this inflection point, and I think we have to figure out are we going to get those cuts or are we going to
have to wait longer for them. So I think investors have to really think about what the potential impact of opportunities for fixed income is the next year, and then also consider how does this tighter policy continue to percolate through the equity markets and where does that create opportunities and where does that create problems for in places based on just sort of that duration exposure that might be more prolonged than we like.
So, Katie, do you think we've seen peak rates back in late October?
That is the billion dollars?
Do be honest when you're the one to.
Tell us, well, you know what's interesting?
Yeah?
So sorry, yeah, No, what's interesting is we're really at that inflection point because I've been looking at the trends and fixed income and we started off with the inverted curve. We moved to a disinversion this year. The next phase is naturally a steeper yield curve. The question is do we have a steeper yield curve because of some difficult situation where we actually have higher rates for longer or
do we get cuts. And I think that's where I'm I'm not sure yet to be honest, but I do think we need to have a steep yield curve at some point.
How do you view the direction of the economy and also consumer spending because there's so much still kind of gloom out there, well, the consumer pulling back. I mean, if you look at those third quarter GDP numbers, we'll get another revision on that later this week. I mean that was close to five percent growth. You look at the Atlanta FED numbers, obviously those are coming down around
two percent for the fourth quarter. But just on the back of this record online sales for Black Friday, I mean, should we really be concerned about consumer spending?
Well, this has been a continual question as well, is that consumers are just being much more resilient than people have it expected. And I think that's why this narrative of when do we cut rates? When are we done has been so hard because there hasn't been a clear sign that we're ready to cut anytime soon. Because consumers continue to be resilient, and you know, the recent data this week has really already showed that that you know, it's not clear, Katie.
I guess the one on one of the trades that we read about a lot to shear was you know, the hedge funds short treasuries. Do you think that's still the case or they kind of covered that here?
I think, I mean, okay, this is a great question. I love this question because I'm a quant and when I look at the signals right now, what is alarming to me is long term signals are still short in fixed income given the moves that we've seen until recently, shorter term signals are moving more on the long side. So we're seeing this sort of mixed view on fixed income.
So that inflection point that so I do think because of that, there are going to be some investors who still think this may not be over yet, and so I think that's mixed, but there's definitely less of them than there were before.
What about in the commodities market? What is energy telling us about the direction of the economy.
This is really one of my favorite questions because we have really been pointing to the energy moves earlier in the fall, when we started to see energy prices surging again.
But look what happened recently. Energy is now a short signal, and that's been one of the more recent developments, and that tells us that we didn't really have enough legs and that energy move to cause some serious issues for inflation, which is a positive sign, i'd say for this inflation narrative of raising rates is a little bit more likely to be over soon, which I think is good for the consumer. It's good for this getting to target, and
you know, it's something to continue watching. But definitely it had moved to a point where we were watching it, but now it's come back and now it's short. Are the signals for energy?
You're interesting?
All right?
So in a treasury remark, well, why can't I just go buy a two year treasury and get my close to five percent and just kind of call it a couple of years.
Here, Well, the problem is you're going to have to roll that over, right, So.
Two years A lot can happen in two years.
Yeah, that's true. And so I think where the challenge is is that if you look at where the curve is today, we still don't have that duration premium there. So if you buy longer term debt and we do have an environment where yields continue to be higher, that might be negative MPV in relative terms, and I think that's where I think you have to think about what is going to happen for cuts is going to dictate when we get to that and that steeper curve or
a more normal yield curve. So yeah, the two year looks still very good, and I think that's why people are buying it right now, and that's why yields have been going down because people think this opportunity might not last. So maybe it's time to buy treasuries because you want to lock in those rates.
I only have about forty five seconds left. But what's the top question that you hear from your clients?
Oh, I think the biggest question is are we done? Our interest rate's going to go down?
And when?
And tell me now, because I think everybody really wants that for many reasons, because we're used to lower rates. But we have been very strong this year saying higher for longer, and to be honest, most of the year we've been correct. So I would generally have been telling them to be patient and that to expect that higher rates could last longer than you'd like.
Kittie, thank you so much for joining us. Really appreciate getting some of your time today, Katie Kaminski. She is the chief research strategist at Alpha Simplex. We're up there, and I think someone Cambridge, Massachusetts or something in a couple of decent schools up there, so I understand, So we appreciate getting a few minutes for a time.
You're listening to the tape. Cat's are live program Bloomberg Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Chess men, Paul Sweeney here in our Bloomberg and Art at Brokers Studio in our HQ here in New York City. Good news on the geopolitical front. I think it's good news. Cutter says Israel Hamas agree to extend truce for two days. Let's get some color on this developing story. Bobby Ghost joins us. He's Bloomberg Opinion. He knows this part of the world very very well. Lots of experience. Bobby, I take this as good news. How do you take this?
No, Yeah, it's good news. It's good news for the families of the hostages that are going to be released. We don't know the exact number, but good news for them. It gives them hope. It's good news for the Palestinians who live in Gaza because it gives them two more days without the sky falling on their heads. It's good news for President Biden, who has articulated several times that he wanted the truth to be extended. It's good news for all of those constituencies. For Benjamin Ettnia, who the
Prime Minister of Israel. The question was always going to be the balancing of all this pressure from within and without to extend the truth with the military calculation, And the military calculation was, you know, if you extend, does that give Hamas more time to re arm itself, to regroup its fighters and become a danger. Do you lose momentum? Do you lose the optics? So he's clearly decided that two days is adequate at least for now.
What are the next immediate steps to see whether or not this truth could be extended for even longer beyond those two days?
Well, again those calculations. He's going to be the NETNA who's going to be informed by his generals about what their best assessment is. And I think we will see extensions on one day, two days at a time, not for a a week long or even a month long.
So how do you think the generals, how do you think the generals and the military folks are defining success on a daily basis. It kind of reminds me a little bit of Vietnam when it was his body count.
Well, if that was the case, and the body count is overwhelmingly on the Palestinian side, we don't know very much of Israel's military casualties injured or or killed. We have a pretty good idea of how many Palestinians are dying. There's been some reports from Israeli military that they believe that between one thousand and two thousand Hamas fighters have been killed. That's out of a grand total of you know,
many more thousands of Palestinians. So again, these numbers kind of they're fairly small numbers because by Israel's assessment, Hamas has thirty thousand fighters, and if they're only killed, say two thousand, shows there's a long way to go.
Will additional aid be able to be distributed there based on those two days truth being extended, Yes.
That's to be expected that that border crossing in Rafa south of Gaza into Egypt, that will be very busy, lots of aid going in. I mean, the scale of what the people in Gaza needs is off the chart. So even several hundred trucks a day is not going to cover it, but better that than nothing. So, you know, again for that reason too, this is good news within reason for the Palestinian people in Gaza.
Or do you think the United States State Department feels isn't a good outcome? Like what do you think the United States State Department and is kind of hoping for rooting for trying to get our policy there.
Well, so it's not so much the State Department. This policy has been run out of the White House. We've had there's been reports of quite a lot of disappointment and anger in the State Department that White House is
running this without regard to the State Department's advice. So this is President Biden taking the lead essentially, and what he wants to see is, you know, hamas greatly greatly diminished, but quickly so that the sort of daily reports of human casualties, of civilian casualties, innocent people being killed, that
can end. So he would like to see this result quickly, but this is not playing out on his timeline, is playing out on the timeline of Hamas and Israel, and so he can put pressure on Israel, and clearly to some degree has succeeded with this truce being extended. But there's only so much that even the President of the United States can do.
From your purview, and I'm sure it's difficult to gauge, but what do you think is the timetable for how long this conflict could continue to go on for?
It's really hard to tell. The question is whether or not Israel changes its goals. The original goal that netanyahuo articulated is that Hamas must be essentially eliminated. That's as I said, thirty thousand fighters that that will require weeks, months,
years to pull off. But if the goal is changed, and if it's you know, a new kind of target, which is that Hamas is greatly reduced or Hamas gives up control of Gaza, still very high bar to get over, but at least then you can you can speculate about a timeline right now, the end state is so vague that it's impossible to say how long this might take.
You know, I kind of think that I haven't seen on then, you know, the cable news networks many images of rockets landing in Israel. Is that because I'm just not paying attention or have they been reduced? And does that indicate that maybe Israel is in fact impacting the bility of Hamas to wage war.
There have been fewer rocket attacks, no question, volleys of them every now and again, but certainly not with the intensity that we saw on and after the seventh of October the first few days. You know, those rockets have to be smuggled in. Some of them are the sort
of lower tech ones are manufactured within Gaza. You know, since October seven terrorist attack, Israel has been minding those borders more carefully, and the destruction in Gaza City has greatly sort of reduced the arms caches and Hamas's ability to build new rockets. So yeah, but Israel's concern will be that if the truce continues, then Hamas will have the ability to bring in more rockets and build more rockets and start firing those off again.
So during the truth is truth, isn't there a concern also that potentially, if you're thinking about Hamas, would they be able to potentially bring in reinforcements or are there any sort of stipulation on what they were able to do during the two day period.
But they don't really need reisforcements from the outside, and smuggling in human beings in the middle of a war situation can be quite tricky, especially when you know that Israel and Egypt presumably are on a high state of alert watching for any movement of large groups of people in that direction. And you know, the Hamas, unlike let's say is SIS and some other terrorist groups that we're familiar with, tends to depend on its own on Palestinians
to form the bulk of its fighting force. It gets weapons from Iran, it gets money from Iran and other sources internationally. But for actual manpower, it has plenty of manpower within Gaza. But the concern would be weapons. Are they able to smuggle weapons either by sea or through those tunnels that we've been reading about for years and years. Again, you'd hope that particularly the Egyptians would be on a
high alert and prevent that from happening. But it's been known to happen in the past, where even in the middle of a conflict situation with Israel, Hamas has shown the ability of smuggling in or building new weapons.
All right, So we're, you know, fifty days plus into this. How united is the Israeli population to what's happening these days? Is that wavered at all? Do we have any reporting?
Well, it's wavered on the political spectrum. So the vast majority to go buy the polls. The vast majority of Israeli's want Benjamin Netania who gone. They want him to pay the price for his failings as a leader which led to the October seven attack. On the other hand, there seems to be still quite a lot of support
for the military operation. It was an incredibly traumatic event for the Israeli the terrorist attack, and they do want to see uh, they do want to make sure that that day, that the horrors of that day are never visited on them again. So they would like to see their military succeed, But they don't want to see their military having to occupy Gaza for an extended period of time. So quite a mixed bag there's a lot of support for the military, but no very little support for Netanya who himself.
So you think Nenya who stays in power as long as there are you know, active operations.
Well, he's counting on that. That's for sure, that that his people won't want to change horses in the middle in red stream. But there are calls for his resignation that are coming from some prominent voices, including farmer military leaders, from our intelligence chiefs, former prime ministers. If that pressure keeps building, then he'll have to He'll all.
Right, a lot of a lot of moving parts there, certainly, Bobby Gosh, thank you so much for joining us. Goash's a calmness for Bloomberg Opinion. Joining us live here in our studios here in New York City.
You're listening to the tape Cat's are Live program Bloomberg Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.
George legend On was shreet in my opinion he's chairman of Sanders Mars Harris. But he's been doing this a long time. I'm not calling George old here. I'm saying he's been on Wall Street a long time. He began his career as a stockbroker at E. F. Hutton, one of my favorite. If you don't know what that is, go google it or go to YouTube and see the commercials. But I interviewed with him way back in the day. I'm talking eighty eight or eighty nine when he was
at Bach. Did not get the just that did not derail my career, I went on. But he's not chairman of Sanders Mars. George, thanks so much for taking the time. We shake getting a few minutes of your time here. I want to take advantage of your perspective, your experience, George. I mean, we've had a crazy two to three years here in these markets, what with a pandemic and whatnot. When you sit back and maybe talk to your biggest clients, what are you telling them these days?
Well, I appreciate being called a legend, because a legend is basically synonymous. It has been and I apologize for your not getting the job or or or credential beat looking back. UH is very educational and instructive. It's not terribly predictive.
Though.
One of the wonderful things about the investment world, financial world, for everybody is that it's ever changing. It's it's ever dynamic, it's it's sort of like a kaleidoscope. And what was in the past or or the things that creates circumstances a year ago, five years ago, three years ago, doesn't
really matter. So the interaction of finance, emotion, world affairs, economic affairs that creates Wall Street or investment is very different going ahead than it's ever that it's ever been in the past, and I think that that is particularly exciting today. Most pundits believe that the market, at least over the shorter term, is over extended. It's rallied a lot in November, and they think, well, it's time for
a pullback. It's too extended. But again, I think that that's historic or a retrospective reasoning rather than a good view of what lies ahead for us.
From your purview, how do you view the American consumer and the resiliency there when you still have so many people questioning the strength but yet we're still continuing to see especially with these latest sales numbers for Black Friday as well as Cyber Monday, that American consumers continue to spend.
The American consumer, actually, probably consumers and the households worldwide are really what drive economies and drive growth and productivity. We tend, I think, to look to the FED, to look to the government, to look to the leaders of the EU to either create prosperity or to create recessions
or economic contraction. That's not right. It's really the individual and collective energy gusto of the household that that creates what lies ahead, and the US case of recent weeks, and I think going forward, uh, what lies ahead is people want to do better. People are invigorated, people will spend because they'll work, and they're they're earning good money and actually now a better money in real terms than
they have for several years. So I think the pessimists, uh yeah, may may may be blinded to what really drives the economies. It's not the FED, it's it's individuals. It's households.
George, and you're I'm just looking through some of your notes here you have it. I think a really out of consensus call here buy regional bank stocks, why do you say that there's definitely a lot of concern out there?
All right?
First the disclaimer, our company owns a regional bank, so I've got to build in bias. Start with that. Step away from it. There are a very few regional banks that are in somewhat compromised positions. Republic National Bank, Silicone Valley Bank were really wealth management firms that lent excessively as a way to attract clients to their wealth management platform.
I understand their rationale, but it was poorly done. There are some number of regional banks that have lent too much money to commercial real estate enterprises of one sort or another, and they are apt to be squeezed. But of the over four thousand banks in the United States, there are very few that are in that predicament. Broadly speaking,
community bankers are very very cautious. They're conservative, they're very aware of the regulatory oversight is placed on them, and the stocks are extremely inexpensive now for a half or a quarter of what they did a year or two ago. So I think that the pessimism regarding regional banks should have been or should be limited to a very small number, and the rest are screamingly cheap, with strong growth prospects ahead of them, and in many cases a generous dividend yields.
We only have about a minute left, But what's the top question that you hear from your clients.
The biggest question that our customers have is should I be involved in equities or are they simply too risky in a world where I can get a five percent return on the five year treasury. Our answer to that is on both the five year treasury yielding four and a half percent is more have to appreciate and throw
off a positive real return. But people who turn their back on equities are blind to the fact that American business can prosper in this type of interest rate climate and grow at a very substantial rate.
Hey, George, thanks so much for joining us. Really a treat to get a few minutes of your time. George Ball he is a chairman of Sanders, Mars and Harris. And if you want to find out about a couple of really really high quality investment bank workers firms and back in the day, go Google Base Company and EF Hutt and some of two of the best names out there.
Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcasts. You can subscribe and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter at Matt Miller nineteen seventy three, and I Fall Sweeney.
I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio Time
