Investing, Education, Retail, and the Fed (Podcast)

on his Black Friday. Lyle, Hey, good to have you here with Paul and myself. So it's been quite a year. I'm looking forward to wrapping it up, but I'm a little cautious and concerned about what three brings. How do you see it? Well, thanks for having me and happy trip to fend overload day. So I think you know right now the way we're looking at the market. You know, the market. Just to give you some contacts, the market

historically trade at fifteen to sixteen times forward numbers. Right now the market refrain to the smp uh, we're trading around almost seventeen and a half times forward numbers, which is not really terribly expensive. But when you overlay the backdrop of uh, you know, a potential slow down or even a recession. We don't believe we're going to go to a recession. We think we're just going to slow down.

To that of spending is pretty pretty strong. But what really concerns me is, you know, the personal savings rate as a percentage of disposal income is right where it was back in O eight, and we all knew what happened after that, right from O to O nine. So um, so I'm a little concerned. I mean, if I'm a if I'm a short term trader investor, I would be very cautious here. I would not put on new positions.

If you have your gigantic profits and Apple that you've held for ten years, great, keep going Uh I went buy uh too much? I'd be I'd wait for the market to present an opportunity to get a better entry point. So I mean, lie, we're up about twelve off of

the recent lows in the SMP. That feels kind of real to me or my getting a head fake here, No, that it's real, But I just think you know, people have you know, there's a lot of hope built in this market that the FED is gonna slow the rate to increase, and and they're going to but you have to understand the FED is data driven, and they can't get all the data until January for the fourth quarters, so they're going to raise rates again, you know, I would you know, I think the investors need to take

a real hard listen to what Mr Powell says. And he's raising rates. Is it fifty, it's seventy five. It's still a raise, and he's probably gonna raise again in the future. It's just gonna be a slow rate. So I think there's a lot of expectation built in that. Uh it's it's gonna really slow or stop and right now I don't see it. But then you have the market valuation on top of that, so there's not a real lot. I don't see a big catalyst for the

markets to go up here in the short term. Well what do you make that when, as you said, the FED is data driven. Doubt about a great story from the Wall Street Journal today, how the Fed's gonna be watching Black Friday Cyber Monday for insights into the health of the US consumer. Wall Street Journal putting it this way, the diagnosis this year takes on UH increased significance in light of the deteriorating economic landscape. We know how important

the consumer is to the US economy. So if we see some sobering consumer spending numbers, might that change your thought about maybe when the FED is done. Absolutely listen of GDPs retail sales, right, So that's why they have to look at that. So when you when you take that consideration, if we have a tough UH, if we have a tough retail sales numbers come out after this weekend, I think the Fed's going to really keep going. They haven't.

They haven't really seen anything different. They say they're going to keep going, So I think he'll just But you know what I have to say, I was thinking about this Paul coming in, which is pretty sobering since I was half awake, and this is what I was thinking about. But FED policy that if they do smaller increments, that leaves the door open that they might not go to

that higher FED funds. Right, they might see data points that say we don't have to go as high as we thought, and it could change the thinking in terms of evaluations. Well, that would that would absolutely change the thinking. But as of today, you know, or maybe we'll find out on Monday that thinking hasn't changed. So I'm not going to be one of those you know, hoping, hoping,

pray for, you know, the power to change his mind. Right, So you've you've got to listen to what the man is saying, right, he's and he's not going to get all the data he really needs to make a really informed decision until really January, Lyle, you've got a call on Mickey Mouse the Walt Disney Company. They made a CEO change, shocking change in the CEO. What's you're calling the Walt Disney Company? You know, I think Disney is

a great company for the long term. It's it's one of the few stocks I fold, uh intimately, Um, but I think you know, Disney is fairly valued. I do think there's some upside there. I think that Mr Iger I always called him Mr Positivity. He is an absolute phenomenal leader. Bob Jacob Speck was clearly not the right guy here at this moment in time. And we'll see what happens down the road. But uh Iger is going to do a great job. But here's the reality is as great as is it's going to take some time

for him to you know, turn the battleship around. It's not going to happen overnight. He will turn around. It's just amount of time. Right now. The valuation on Disney is fair. Canna go up to one ten, one tw absolutely, I think eventually gets there. They've got the world's largest library, They've got you know, ESPN and all the other ABC and everything else in there in Disney. Plus it's just

going to take some time. I would not be a seller here, and in fact, if we have any type of pull back, I'd be a pretty strong barrier of it. All right, we're gonna leave it on that note. Listen, thank you so much. Disney shares, by the way, they're down thirty six percent so far. Here in Lyle Himba, partner at Granted Group Advisors, joining us on the phone. You might recall a Bloomberg story last month. It was a pretty big deal, and I think she and I

are next guest. We talked about this, and I think even Paul you might have been there. It was about University of Pennsylvania's warton announcing it's NBA class was the first in the programs a hundred and forty year history to be majority female, because you just don't see that happen. So let's see what Alyssa's sankster has to say. She is CEO at Forte Foundation. She joins us on the phone on this Friday, ALYSSA, nice to have you here

with Paul and myself. UM tell us and remind our audience exactly what you guys do at Forte Sure, Hi Carol, Hi Paul. It's nice to be with you. And we are celebrating twenty years this year. Forte Foundation is and our goal is to increase opportunities for women in business leadership, and we partner with top business schools like the Wharton

School m among many others. And this year we were really excited to see that number and then also that about seventeen of our member schools had reached or greater, which is also a really significant milestone. And we've been following this trend for the twenty years we've been working. So UNLESSA, I see you've got your undergraduate degree from Texas A and M and proud Aggie and then the m b A from the Lowry Mayze School of Business. And I know Lowry very well from Clear Channel Communications.

Great great individual when you see women going into an NBA program, what are they looking to do? Is it a career change? Is it just I want to better myself? And from a career perspective, what do most women look for when they go into a business program? Sure, and and NBA students generally our career changers, especially in full time programs, And so when they make that commitment to go back, they really are looking for a different type of opportunity. And so women, much like men and women

going back to NBA programs are also doing that. But what we see on the back side of that is that women report higher levels of confidence. They feel like they're specialists in particular areas. They're able to walk back out into the workforce and feel empowered and um respected for the degree that they have and for the knowledge that they bring to the table. So it really does build that confidence and um set them on that trajectory

towards leadership. And leadership is really where the NBA pathway h takes you. Unlus, it sounds so it sounds like, you know, like poke pol a little bit. So it sounds like men and women both go to get an NBA for the same reason. But I do wonder a man having an NBA versus a woman having an NBA, what's the difference? Does truly an m B A A give a woman a huge leg up when it comes

to climbing the corporate ladder? Um? Well, about six point six percent of CEOs or women, and of that six point six percent of them have an m B A. That statistic is a little bit stronger for the men. So if you look at all of the other CEOs um, it's you know, closer to So it's clearly a very significant pathway leading to that c suite UM. The difference between men and women is that when women get that m B A it almost levels the playing field versus

giving them a leg up. And so where you see women walking into a room to talk about business with other men, if they don't have that NBA, their competence level can sometimes not be as strong, and then they're not feeling like they are contributing it the same way. So I think it's more of a leveling the playing field than it is um necessarily giving them a leg up.

And listen, I serve on the Fuqua School of Business at Duke University on their board of Visitors and and and it seems that at Duke there's a real focus on attracting UH a diverse class into their business school. Is that typical of some of the leading schools out there? Do you find? Yes? I think that the schools we work with UM, you know, gender equity has been very

much a focus UM. But at the same time they are very interested in the intersection of race and gender and making sure that UM that their their student body is diverse. We do a lot of work around UH female protagonists in case studies. They're they're looking at how they teach the students, how many faculty members are diverse. They're trying to create a diverse student profile. But they're also looking at many other dimensions and how they deliver

business education. And that's because companies want that as well. And the companies are saying to the business schools, we want diversity in our pipeline, and we we need your help and your partnership to create that diverse pipeline to schools and businesses hand to hand, Alyssa, And forgive my sarcasm, but I do feel like I had this conversation ten years go, twenty years ago. I know it sometimes gets better and all of a sudden, we see more women

who are CEOs, and then those numbers dwind alls. So I and I get building out the pipeline. But what is the real problem in terms of more women penetrating really the C suite? If you will, Yeah, I think it's um gosh, you know, I wish I had a silver bullet. UM. It really has been this layered onion approach more that we've seen, and you know, the pipeline getting more as many women in business school as there

were in law in medicine. I think that's healthy. I think though, when companies bring an onboard these classes of employees, they've got to really think about monitoring and watching and closely UM investing in all populations and making sure they have the same access and they have the same mentors and sponsors. And so that's hard work. I mean, that's every single day you have to be thinking intentionally about

how you're advancing employees into these leadership ranks. And if you're not doing it care fully, and if you're not UM monitoring it and looking at metrics and making sure that you push those metrics UM, then you're not going to see success UM. And it really is about access and opportunity, because you can't go to the C suite if somebody hasn't pulled you forward into those leadership UM ranks. So it's it's hard work and there's always something more

to be done. But I am encouraged because when I started, there were zero CEOs. Now there's at least close to seven women's CEO. Hey, hey, listen, how did this all play out during the pandemic? Were there any meaningful changes in the trends of women in NBA programs? Um? No, I mean, I think the enrollment in NBA programs is

watches the markets, and it it goes. When economy is strong, you see more UM students staying in the economy, and when the economy weakens a little bit, you see more students going back to get their NBA women held their own. They really stayed consistent in terms of their percentages. I think in NBA enrollment to dipped a little bit this year over the pandemic, they were quite strong, UM, and so we're seeing the women are retaining that percentage that

they've always had. All right, UM, I think we're gonna leave it at that. Really appreciate your time, Alyssa. Thank you so much. Have a great holiday season. Alyssa Sankster, she's CEO at Forte Foundation, joining us on the on this Friday. I may drive past the Short Hills mal tonight, but that's as bad as close as it's a full contact sport in the parking lot there. Man, you have to be really aggressive to get a spot. I guess it's a good thing for the retailers inside they do,

but I don't do that. I'm a man at the people here. UM put them Coyle. She covers all that retail stuff for Bloomberg Intelligence. She's been doing that for a long time. She's seen her share of black Fridays. Where are you now in the great state of New Jersey? Putament, what are you seeing? I am on my way to Dick Sporting Goods. Um, it's crowded. You know. We have analysts out on the West coast in Massachusetts. Um. In Chicago, it is crowded and it is only getting more crowded. Um,

it's it's boss flowing down. I mean, you know, we came into the season thinking that sales would be a little, a little muted. If this day is proof of anything, it's that people are spending I gotta tell you, Pam, I like to do Twitter polls, and I said, are you shopping at stores this Black Friday? It's been out there for about three hours this Paul fifteen, almost six say yes, they're out shopping at stores. Six said no, said yes, but they're shopping online today, So I don't know.

Maybe my poll is just people are just sitting at home listening to us, so that's why they're not out shopping. But it sounds like you and your team are really surprised by the people coming back to the stores. And the lines are there too, right, so that means they're not only just looking at stuff, they're buying. Yeah. No, I mean the poles are the poles. But as I said earlier, it's really the younger generation. I mean it is the team, the teenager is, the millennials. They are

who aren't in the store. So depending on who took that pole. But they're spending. Um, there's lots of shopping bags floating around. It's busy and it's just getting busier. Put And we were just talking to Daniel di Martino Booth. She's the CEO and chief strategist that Quill Intelligence, and she was just pointing out that the consumers not as strong as maybe we think. The consumer has drawn down savings, credit card debt is going up. What are the retail

companies say about the health of the consumer. You know, I'd agree with that. I mean, retailers have been concerned for some time that consumers are going to be pinged, and that's why their bargain hunting and deal hunting, which is maybe why it's so busy today, right because somewhere in their minds they know that's the best field they're going to occur this weekend. So if they want to save money, if they want to get maximized what's on their wallets, they need to be out today. They need

to be buying over this weekend. Yeah, I was thinking about I was just looking at Visa uh, and I'm going to be interested to see what Visa master card all of those folks have to say. No, no, are you still there? Punham? Maybe we lost her? Um, she's dropped. Yeah, she's out and about and she's checking out she said Dick Sporting good which I do think like when it comes to shopping around the holidays, sometimes those specialty stores, like people have very specific things on their wish lists

and they tend to do well. Um, I feel like, you know, whether it's electronics, whether it's sports, whether it's you know, kind of different items like this. Yeah, I was interested. I'm gonna be interested to see how this all plays out in terms of the retail sales. Because you come out of the pandemic and it's all about experiences, traveling. Um, you know that kind of thing. But the consumers still out there in Strantham and Punam. We we we got you back.

Thanks so much for joining us again. So when you think about a small segment of retail like sporting goods, what do you look for? What do analysts look for when I go to a sporting goods store and trying to get a channel check, I think it's really the inventory levels, right, So when you see the shelves, how high are they stopped? Are they picked through? Our consumers gravitating towards one brand versus another, and then looking across the brand, right, is Nike more on sale than Idia does?

It's a lot more discounted. What are consumers picking after? Those are kind of the things that we look for. Dick Sporting Goods guys from about mid June it is up almost seventy percent, so it has had quite a run and quite a rally. Is there something to it? You know, we were talking Paula myself put it just this whole idea that when it comes to holidays, you know, when it's something very special or specialty store, I feel like those are the things that tend to show up

on wish lists. Um, and I wonder if that's the case when you look at retail and what tends to do better? Is it? Is it those firms and those companies and those retailers that have something very special and unique to offer. Yeah, I think it's value or it's something very special and very special. The only name that comes to mind really is that See. I think that's where at he's been driving all year and they will continue to because they truly offer differentiated products, customer and

more personalized products. And put when we talk to retail experts like yourself, you know, a topic that comes up as kind of the US being overstored. There's still too many stores for the demand out there. But this is an issue we've been talking about for years and years. Where are we now in terms of the industry, and it's it's it's retail footprint. I think there still are too many stores, and I think you will continue to see see store consolidation. But then there are stores that

need to expand. To write, whether it's the off price retailer, there's some of the growth groups where some of the international retailers, they're trying to gain presence here, whether it's like a Prime Mark which is a value oriented retailer, or um some of the brands that are just looking to open up some retail out with but they're all looking in the same space. They're all looking at area, so you know, the shorthills mall and malls like the

Garden State Plausa. It's hard to still find real estates there because that's where people want to be. You know, it's interesting. I was looking at Etsy to you like there. I guess it was like around mid June there a lot of retailers kind of bottomed out, or at least a recent bottom. It is up sevent since. Made you like that is pretty remarkable. Um. I was thinking about so many stories put them coming into Black Friday that we said, you know, maybe tempered demand, maybe it's not

going to be as optimism. Are you getting ready to kind of rethink your research based on what you're seeing and what you're hearing from the team. What we see today is that it's Black Friday is back in motion. People are shopping, people are spending. It doesn't look muted to me by any means, but you know, there's a lot of holiday shopping still to go. This weekend is

just the beginning. So if everyone has shopped this weekend and they don't go back out over the next three weeks, then holiday sales could still come in at the estimates that we've seen around which are normalized to be four to eight percent growth. So it really the beginning is off to a great start, but we need to see if that momentum continues for the next three weeks because the bulk of holiday shopping still lies ahead of us, especially as bill's are to come in. It's like, okay,

well that we needed to hey, put them. I'm not sure if you've spoken to your counterpart in London, Charles Allen, who covers retail for Bloomberg Intelligence. What's the expectation for good friends over there in England or maybe just you're broadly defined. I have not spoken to my London London counterproducts. I have spoken of people on the West Coast and they're seeing the same trend. We have an analyst at in the malls there and it's busy. It's the same

stores that are seeing the traffic. Where do you go from here? And we've you've been so great talking to us at the top of each hour. You know, you started off at the Freehold Freehold Mall, mall? Excuse me, you went to Coals, You're off to Dicks. Where else are you going to go check out? Today? So there's another smaller mall, and I do want to go check out the off price retailers which are in Black Friday destination, but they do offer a lot of value to see

if traffic picks up. It usually picks up later in the day. They're at the tv xs of the world. But um, and then maybe take another trip back to the mall to see does it get busier or is it just you know through three four o'clock and then the mall is kind of normalized it all right? Well, you know, maybe I'll go out and if you want, I'll go to shorth Host Mall for you and report back. But that would you don't have to pay me a lot,

get a drive by. He's already said it. Yeah, I think I might just drive by and I'll take a picture of the parking lot and send it to you. Uh, Danielle, sorry, but put him Goyle, thanks so much for joining us again at the top of the hour giving us the latest on what's going on in Black Friday, and put him. Goyle covers all that retail stuff for Bloomberg Intelligence. So it just seems like every FED president speaks all the time.

Has that always been the case? It just seems like more and more every time we turn around when they're not in the quiet period, we're hearing from a FED Now. I guess it's Yeah, the only person I care about is a j pal, and I guess we're gonna hear from him next week. And so when I want to get a sense on what's going on at the FED and on the economy, large return to Danielle di Martino Booth. She's the CEO and chief strategist that Quill Intelligence, former

advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. She's or go to voice on this stuff. So, Danielle, what is my FED chairman going to tell me next week? Uh? I think, I think if that chair Um come Wednesday is going to be resolute, even though reading through those minutes on Wednesday it revealed that he is increasingly alone in standing up against the doves. Um. By the way, it is Friday, so I've got the Some people have

the clock running down to New Year's Eve. I've got the clock running down to blackout, which is seven days from now, which is when those set officials. Now, that's a really good point, Um. And it did feel like the minutes, you know, even though they were a few weeks old, at this point, there was something almost for everyone Danielle and that maybe we'll see smaller increases by the f O m C, but still we're talking about a higher ultimate Fed funds rate. UM, So it did

feel like there was something for everyone. What could J Powell say when he addresses the Brookings Institution in wash Ington on Wednesday. He's going to talk economy, is going to talk about the labor market, He's going to take audience questions, brave man. What could he say that could change the thinking about Fed policy? I think as long as J. Powell sticks to his narrative that you know,

going from to fifty is still unusually large. Right, we didn't have fifty until before this there were still at twice the magnitude, and that and that he sees nothing on the immediate horizon that suggests that the FED has achieved returning to two percent, meaning we're not accustomed to the FED bringing the FED funds rate up and keeping

it there. And I think he's going to re emphasize his idea of until the job is done, and that is going to fly in the face of those who are expecting some kind of easing in the near term. I say near term meaning six to nine months. I think he's going to refute that idea. So the Bolk case out there for risk assets, I guess Daniel is particated to some degree that, Hey, the FED has already raised the interest rates pretty substantially and lo and behold,

it's actually working. Whether you look at the housing market and maybe look at some of the commodity prices rolling over that a pause is a reasonable thing. But you're suggesting that's not where our FED chairman is. It's not that he doesn't remember he's the lawyer. He's not a PhD in economics. He follows the real time data, probably more closely than a PhD in economics who would follow

only seconally adjusted long data series. He knows what's happening in the in the in the market, but again, financial conditions remain very loose historically speaking, and I think that that is more of his target, is trying to flush out this whole speculative nature that we've had in the markets for the last forty years. If his I've been maintaining, he's got a grander plan. He's trying to put monetary

policy making back in the hands of the people. The officials at the Federal Reserve as opposed to the market make monetary policy on behalf of the Fed the tail wagging the dog. But it is hard for to be fair for the Fed. It feels like Danielle, especially when you do whether it's the pandemic that causes all of

a sudden precedented stimulus to be out there. Uh, you know, we constantly see when we run into trouble that it does feel like lawmakers UM in Washington are quick to kind of help out and lend a hand, and that create changes kind of the liquidity story and does make it trickier for the FED. It does, UM and you know, to the point of some St. Louis Fed research. You know, we injected forty three of g d P into the economy inside of twelve months. You know that compares to

that the entire New Dealer forty fort of GDP. It does make it more difficult, but we have to remember that they monetized every last penny of that. So the Fed played the role of enabler um. By the way, I don't think you get that out of this next congress. I don't think you get the same form of stimulus as we as there's a greater recognition of recession. Eight weeks ago, we had one stay with rising unemployment state

initial unemployment claims. As of the nineteenth Wednesday's report, we have twenty nine states with rising initial state unemployment claims. But that's a real shift. That's kind of where I want to go, Danielle, because we're gonna get a jobs numbered next week. But we've got record low unemployment. We've been hearing from our retail analyst on the top of every hour, here is out at the shopping malls. People are out there shopping. It seems like we've got a

pretty strong consumer judging. If nothing else everybody's kind of got a job, well, but everybody doesn't kind of have a job. If if if jobless claims were down forty eight point nine percent, that was the best that it was right down as good jobless claims down, you over your nationwide As of September, as of the nineteenth, jobless

claims were only down two point zero percent. In other words, the time we get Thursday's print, this next Thursday's print, jobless claims nationwide are going to be rising year over year. That's why I think high high income consumers in University of Michigan data are telling you that they expect the unemployment rate to rise as opposed to that middle here and the lowest tier. They don't see it coming yet, so do you. We go as far as to say that FED policy it is working. We see it in

the housing market. And I agree with you that last weekly jobless print showed, you know that things are starting to slow down in the labor market. We still have ways to go. And you know, we certainly saw in the FOMC minutes to you know, FED staff warning of a chance of recession in next year's now near fifty percent. So FED policy is working. Oh, it absolutely is. I mean, obviously you see it most in interest rate sensitive sectors.

But for heaven's sake, I was I was just telling a friend we had a furniture Manufacturerloyees announced that they were closing, like shutting up shop. We're not talking young furniture manufacturer in Mississippi. Let's go on Tuesday period end. There will be ripple effects into the economy from this slamming the brakes on the housing market. It's not just going to be contained mortgage lenders. It's going to have

broader economic rammifications. And we're beginning to see that. I suspect we'll see a lull in layoff activity in the month of December, because who wants to lay people off right in front of the holidays? And then we get January, and then we get January, and it's gonna hurt. Hey, Danielle, you're in When I think of one of the most vibrant markets in the United States, Dallas Fort Worth area, that metroplex down there, how's the economy down there? Well,

the economy down here is still relatively strong. If you look at the nation as a whole. Um Texas unemployment claims, you're still down four. So we're just on the cusp of starting to enter recession in Texas. It has certainly been delayed because of the mass um migration here to these markets, but even here you're seeing homebuilders put incentives out there, cut home prices and not gain any traction. And that tells you something about basically, if you follow

the entrails of consumer confidence, there's now a recognition. And I think that that's what's critical is nationwide people have recognized that we're going into recessions. This isn't just a CEO survey. This is a broader recognition among the public and that's a game change. Or whenever in any cycle, whenever you get to that point of recognition, that's when things start to change. Danielle. We heard from Lyle him back him by earlier of Grantit Group Advisors reminding us

g d P is retail sales. So this is something obviously we're focused on today. Because of Black Friday. We've been talking with our Punum Goyle, a Bloomberg intelligence out at the malls. They're busy, they're getting busier, people waiting for parking spots. Black Friday can be a great data point for the Federal Reserve in terms of whether or

not consumers feel confident about shopping. At the same time, I think it was maybe the New York FED that put out some data about, you know, Americans, consumers are adding more to their credit cards. So how might the FED take Black Friday Cyber Monday data and kind of at it into their thinking about FED policy. Well, I think I think consumer confidence, in the way you describe it um really speaks to people's willingness to completely max

out their credit cards. And the data that's not being followed as closely is that we're about tapped out in terms of credit card lines, so and we've taken savings down to such a level on a nominal basis that there wasn't enough savings to spend what Americans spent last December in terms of burning through their savings. The willingness is a corollary, if you will, to financial conditions being easy.

Many Americans have never lived through the double difpercession of the nineteen eighties, and they don't they don't know of a FED that doesn't come in and rescue the economy very quickly and not let the pain be failed. And I think that's how many. That's how many households and many investors are operating. Daniel. We're gonna get the Jolts data next week job openings, and it's still a big number. It seems to me more than ten million. How do you interpret the Jolt's number or do you just kind

of toss it aside? You know, I don't toss it aside. I allowed some FED staff papers to allow me to tos us it aside. If you if you net FED research, there's the irony is that Powell is ignoring FED research. If you net out job postings that are written specifically to poach existing employed individuals. So I want to get a good employee from my competition and hire them for

more money. If you net those types of job postings out, according to Federal research data, your job openings are basically flat. There was a little bumped during COVID, but otherwise basically flat job openings for people who are unemployed. So there's a critical distinction to be made there. It's a weird economy, I think, making sense of it and coming out of this pandemic, right, we haven't lived through this before. Um,

so what is this thing? I mean? FED policy monetary policy, never never assure thing there is in a playbook that says this is exactly what you have to do. Daniel, you know this better than most. So what is the tricky thing? What is the major risk factor right here at this point in time for J. Powell and Company. So the way I liken it's for for Quill's clients

is cycle compression. So the way that he brushed off the idea of lag when he was the podium, as opposed to being recognized and written into the statement up by the doves. And my greatest concern is that fannimated research that showed that on average it takes five quarters for home price increases in home price declines to manifest in the consumer price inflation consumer price index. It's taking

only half of that time. In other words, the magnitude of the FED rate hiking cycle plus q T in the background is moving monetary policy into the real economy at twice the speed as what we've seen when it used to be Alan Greenspan seventeen rate hikes in a row, only any five basis points at a time. So I think that that's what we have to pay attention to, is the rapidity with which lag is making its mark on the real economy. Hey, Danielle, just thirty seconds left.

What's the what do you get asked the most right now by your clients? Hey? Explain this to us what my clients want to know the most right now? Or why are credit spreads as wide as they are and what's going to break? And my stock answer is you have to pay attention to other parts of the world. How yielding in Europe is degrading at a much faster pace. The credit event will happen, but so far because financial conditions remain easy. It's going to keep the Feds pedal

to the metal, so to speak. But credit remains on everybody's front mind. It always does end in credit. Danielle, thank you so much. Really appreciate and have a great weekend. Danielle de Martinez de Martino excuse me, Booth CEO and chief strategist over at Quill Intelligence. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe and listen to interviews of Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast platform you prefer.

I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter at Matt Miller three on Fall Sweeney, I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney before the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio