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The President communicates with the world through his favorite messaging.
It is a very long tweet. I'm going to get to the key sentence.
I've instructed the Department of War to postpone any and all military strikes against Iranian power plans and energy infrastructure for a five day period. Markets reverse and rocket nansdak up two percent, standard impores five hundred, exploding up one hundred and fifty points. Pault swinging your interpretation please.
I think a lot of folks has been waiting for this social media post. At some point, President Trump's just going to say enough is enough and maybe perhaps think about moving on.
We are fortunate to have Jaman and Brissetti here, Jamana.
I guess this raises a question in to the extent that President Trump is looking here as this tweet suggests to kind of step back and wind down operations in that part of the world. Is there a sense that that's the right move at this point, or is it their sense that boy, the US has broken this part of the world and to be up for others to deal with it.
Look, I think there's a big question about what exactly the US are trying to achieve here in all of the mixed messaging that has come through this weekend. We woke up in the morning on Saturday to use that President Trump was thinking of a military windown, only a few hours later to put up this forty eighth our ultimatum to Iran, a threat to attack their power plants.
And we know that, as I just mentioned to you, that would constitute a real existential threat to many of these Gulf sites and desalination plants specifically, they have been putting a lot of pressure, most likely on the US administration not to follow through on that threat. But at the same time, the fact that he's pushed it back by five days suggests that the threat of them acting is still there. And then equally alongside that they are own reporting suggests that the US are weighing up the
possibility of taking over karg Islands. I think thousands of more marines to the region as well, And so anyway you look at it, it does seem like this war is going to go on for a couple of weeks rather than a couple of days. Irrespective of the posts that he just put up.
Now, Jubona, please stay with us. I have to do a market check here to keep it going.
Oil plunges, a dollar comes in weaker right now as well.
Also gold Tom Gold is down about three point seven percent forty four hundred dollars per ounce. Robert Teeter, chief investment strategist to Silver Crest Asset Management, Robert, you walked into the door probably with one set of expectations. Now we're here here with one tweet later or one social media post later. The world's changed yet again. How do you put that in context? Yeah?
Absolutely. You know, it's been very much a day by day environment here, and I think this really speaks to it as well. You know, you've had a market that corrected sort of gradually as it went through this process, rather than some of the prior events we've had where you had a really big, significant decline and then you sort of work your way back. And I think that was the market's expectation that this day would come at some point, So it was a step by step, day
by day adjustment. Because we sit here today, the critical element will be if this is a five day window, do we start to get ships and commodities and oil flowing through the Strait in the next five days. The timing sets up interestingly. As I look at it, you know, this is something that could be contained to first quarter in terms of any type of disruption that companies want
to blame this on. So if you get oil moving in the next five days, then I think we're right back pretty quickly to a pretty normal environment where investors are looking at second quarter, third quarter and beyond. If you get no traffic through the straight over the five days, it's you know, you still have to be a little bit careful here he.
Did the bond market tell the president what to do? I mean, at a seismic shift in bonds, the bond market shifted.
I mean, I'm sorry, bonds lead stocks absolutely. Bond market a powerful player here. If you want to call it the bond vigilantes, you could. This is a very strong message the bond market was sending and saying something needs to happen and soon. Now we've had commentary before that indicated that perhaps we were towards the end of the conflict, and so again for me, it's a one very metric.
I look here on Bloomberg at ecan and look at the traffic through the strait, and hopefully over the next few days and weeks we'll start to see some numbers sticking up there.
I guess if you're the Fed here, inflation was something that probably had your attention a little bit more than expected the last meaning maybe this suggests that there may be a little easing on that front, a little bit on the at least on the energy sign.
Yeah, I think that's right again, especially if traffic starts flowing through the strait, then yes, you get alleviation and oil prices that they're seeing here this morning. That alleviates some of the stress in terms of commodities across the board, not just oil but other commodities as well, and the pass through effect that puts the FED in a much
better spot. I hesitate to say that we'd get back to normal right away, but I think pretty quickly we can get back to normal in terms of balanced outlook, with a bias towards a cut later in the year. If you get a weak employment print. Our view had always been that you will get a weak employment print at some point. It might be a blip and that'll be what gives the FED the catalyst to respond.
Thank you for our first view of the morning, Robert Tetter, I greatly appreciate ahead of investment policy and strategy. Silvercrest Asset Management, Paul I just did a fancy chart off dal Jones industrial average futures. It's incredibly elegant chart. We are down in the gloom of perfect two standard deviations and we've bounced right up to my key middle term moving average line.
We have a long way to go on the Dow to get back to normal.
By seeing the Dow up a thousand, you don't see that every day. So again, market's moving on, trying to digest what this means in the next several days, of what it means over the next several weeks.
So stay on it.
Perfect timing to speak with Henrietta, Trey's co founder Veda Partners, just wonderful on the pulse of Washington. Henrietta, who did the President listen to? Who did he take counsel from to make this reversal in policy?
Well, you can really pick your target. It could be the immigration polling data, It could be the fact that Congress is not going to pass this two hundred billion dollars supplemental spending requests for many months now. It could be the prices that are increasing nationwide. It could be the fact that you can't you know online the Jones Act and expected to offset closure of the straight up Woor moves. But the economic data sets going into a INTRM election cycle are a problem that you know, the
president created and he has to fix. There's no interplay with Congress here, so it makes sense that he be the executor sort of implementing change and winding things back as becomes completely untenable for the American Republic to support him going into metroal elections.
But you go right to where I wanted to go next. Who is the interplay with his an inner circle? Who is he talking to within his inner circle or is this a president alone?
I think it's got to be an expansive set on everybody, from the fundraisers and the donors, to the political campaigns, the down ballot Democrats excuse me, Republicans, as well as his own cabinet that is continuing to see polling data come in over and over and over again saying that the American public does not support the war. You might have ninety four percent of the magabase, but you've lost everybody,
including a huge majority of independence. So when you look at those data sets, it doesn't matter who enters the room. If it's your energy secretary, your transportation secretary, your secretary of defense, all those people are getting negative feedback from the Pentagon to state Department