Inflation, COVID Boosters, And Walgreens (Podcast)

that CPI print. Uh this morning, certainly movie markets went a round table, uh this discussion here in this segment, Vince Cignarella, Bloomberg News macro strategist, and Jennifer Lee, Senior economist and Managing director at BMO Capital Markets. Jennifer love to start with you here. What's your takeaway from this

inflation print we saw this morning? Good morning? So you know what what really worries about right now is that here we are midway through October and we're all like sort of reallying from this September CPI number, and I think there's gonna be more to come. And I actually told someone and I'm gonna humbly tell you guys this. You know, I've told some one last week. Oh you know, September CPI is gonna be important, but I think it'd be less important because October is going to be the

one to watch. And I was referring to that because of these OPEC plus production cuts, you know, um um, and it's going to be upward pressure for energy. But you know, I wasn't expecting you know, such broad really really broad based gains that we saw in this report. So this is troubling obviously, and using you know, the reaction of the markets and uh, you know, and so of course the question is gonna be what happens to the FED, and uh, you know, is their credibility gonna

be at stake? You know, they might be saying we might even have to raise rates longer. And I think we cannot completely discount the possibility of a bigger hike and Nove, Yeah, what about more, Vince, what about a hundred basis points in November? I think that would show a little bit of a sign of panic. First, when we say I love Jennifer's work, I do read our material, uh,

and it's very good and very informative. Then if you don't, you should um my weary here, and you know you've heard me say this is a million times, is that this is a systemic supply chain problem and the FED is basically trying to fix a leaky pipe with a hammer. I don't see how monetary policy is going to crush and demand, if you will. What we need to do

is increased supply and I know that takes time. But if the set is too impatient and raises too aggressively and doesn't give it an opportunity to work its way through the system, I believe without question there is a sheer danger that he's going to do exactly what he's trying to avoid, which has drive us into a stay aflation scenario because wages are not going to keep pace and Kohla was announced today the Bureau of Labor Statistics

announced social security increase next year at eight point seven. That's not going to happen to the average worker going into next year, so you're going to see a decline in in UM spending power and glad I just I get the supply chain problems. Yesterday we had a great story in the terminal about Jim Bullard trying to buy a bicycle and it took in so long. Did you

see that, Steve Matthews are a great piece. First they told him like it's gonna be a and then he was I guess he complained and said, listen, I'm on the fed, damn it. And so then they gave it to him in four months, but they delivered it to him with a with a bill for an extra two bucks because they said, dude, prices have gone up since you ordered this. Um. So the supply chain problems are clear, but it looks like the issues in this print were shelter so rent, food which I don't think that's a

supply chain issue, and medical care, which definitely isn't. So Jennifer, where do you how do you see this coming down? Why where do I begin? I mean food, I mean you got to eat, right, But there's also mother nature playing a role in that as well. Um, you know, and of course the war and that that's dragging on and on and on, and that's also causing upper pressure on food. You can't forget the I mean, Ukraine is the bread basket of the East, so right, yeah, um.

And then of course shelter, you know, it's it's like a big chunk of c p I and and there's also a leg on that, so this is what's going to happen when you of you know that that the big housing um boom last year, so this is almost a leg legging effect UM and UM would also says still a que way of supply team issues. I should also mention, you know, there's like news overnight that and I kind of wentf great when I saw this headline

that Shanghai is back to introducing more restrictions again. Apparently a bunch of bars and restaurants are closed again, and I was like, oh great, here we go again. So there's there's still you know, some of that working through the system UM UM. So I don't think we can completely discount all the supply pressures. At least we're getting some of the auto's back on back into the lots, but you know, like there there's still all those computer

chips that are still short. I think Conda recently was saying that they are cutting production. This is in Japan, but still like it was a big picture, you know, because there's still should word a lot of UM materials, so they had to cut their production plans for the month of October as well. So it's almost like everything is piling on UM when it should have been easing at this point. So this is what is quite worrying, right.

And do you think that the markets are pricing in a flat out recession in the in the near term. I don't know if they fully priced it in, but just about everybody I talked to is absolutely convinced it's going to happen. Um. No, no later than the first quarter of honestly, not sure how it's not going to happen. I mean, we're I'm really curious to see what the retail sales number is going to be tomorrow. I'm that's going to be enormously interesting. I think we've I think

what the FED has done. And if you look at mortgage rates today nearly seven percent, the highest in twenty years, you can't say it's not squash demand with with with what you've already done. And we're not even taking accounts to what the balance shrinking of the balance shoes doing, um and and so you know, we saw what happened in the UK with systemic risk and the change of financial conditions, not really seeing it here just yet, but you know, really interesting to see how markets grabbed a

hold of that yesterday and rallied when sort of. The the UK backed off a little bit, um will be said Blake. The financial conditions in the United States to that extent anybody's guests, You really don't know. They keep saying banks are highly much more capitalized. But no one saw two pound in the eight the either. So yeah, exactly except for Gary Shilling, who yesterday was on our air and said, listen that no one has Stimmy's anymore.

Housing prices are going down, stocks have gotten crushed. Um, you gotta worry about this consumer. Gotta worry about the consumer. We'll see to mark some retail sales. Jennifer Lee, senior economists and managing director at BEMO Capital Markets, and Vince Ignarella, he covers all things markets strategy here for Bloomberg News, both jointing us giving us their thoughts on these markets

which are filling the impact of higher inflation. Print this morning still got read on the screen here snp off eight tens and one percent. But we're rallying off the bottom a little bit, so we'll see how this thing trades. Uh. This afternoon, we're handled off the Harold Master and Tim Stamix see if they can do something with these markets. Never good, I don't know, and you'll send the reins. Mona, do my protenential last name Madgen Mona Mahdgen Joints is

in studio, so I get the ASCAR. Actually, uh in a bluebrig in our active broker studio. She's a senior investment strategist for Edward Jones. Mona, what do you make of this print today? Did it confirm kind of what you guys were thinking at Edward Jones? Did it was kind of an aha moment, like, oh boy, we got more to go here. How did you guys think about it? Yeah? You know, generally, coming in we were expecting probably a softer print on the headline, but we were expecting that

core to remain elevated. And look, this core number is sticky and it's broader basin probably any of us had thought it would be. But the good news, or perhaps the silver lining, is that when you look at the underlying fundamentals in inflation UM, they've actually been all moving in the right direction. You know, not only things like break even rates UM inflation expectations I S M prices paid even to some extent commodities which have been volatile UM.

The tougher part has been the shelter and rent components of course c p I, and as we know, they move with the lag and in fact, when you look at underlying mortgage rates, housing prices, housing demand, even rental prices, we're starting to see them moderate shift lower. But it will take six or twelve months to show up in c p I. So we all know that, and hopefully the FED will acknowledge that at some point. Well the Fed, I mean, it's pretty much a lock. They're going seventy

in November. It's just I think two weeks away, right, Uh, three weeks in any case, Um, the question is what they do after that? Right? Are they going to frontload everything this year and then sit on it next year? Yeah? You know, we're hopeful that they continue to go at a gradual pace, maybe for longer. You know, we don't want anything to happen like what we saw in the

UK markets. We don't want dysfunctioning, we don't want credit markets um liquidity issues to arise, and we really want to see a more even, keel less panic approach to what the FED is doing. So perhaps seventy this November meeting is locked in. Markets are now pricing in another

seventy five in December. Maybe they start to moderate after that fifty or twenty five in February, But generally speaking, I think markets were priced for four and a half to four and three quarters were now looking at a five percent terminal rate. I was talking to Steve Blitz earlier this morning, and he was saying, you know, we just have this demographics problem because everybody who left the workforce who was already sort of retirement age or close

during the pandemic is gone. They're not coming back. And then gen Z is apparently a smaller group than the millennials. So the labor markets just gonna remain tight unless I mean, it's unlikely that the Biden administration starts to issue a ton of visa working visas they think there are almost two million people waiting for them who are going to have real trouble getting them in any short amount of time. Um, So they just have to get unemployment higher. Yeah, you know,

it's an interesting point you bring up. We saw labor force participation ticked downward in the last labor report. That wasn't a great signal. Um, But over time, as people savings start to draw down, as maybe the wage gains moderator at least don't keep up with inflation. Uh, people are going to have to start coming back to the

workforce in some to some extent. You bring up a good longer term issue though longer term labor force is declining here in the US unless we do something with immigration to your point, and that does weigh on longer term potential growth for the US, but not a near term problem. Near term, I think we will see softness in the unemployment rate over the next twelve to twenty

four months. Again, there's a lag impact there, so the federals start now, we won't see it until about six or twelve months from now, but probably coming and probably what we need to see in order to get supply and demand back and check. All right, So I monna. Given that background, given that interest rate background, the economic outlook, what do you tell the good folks at Edward Jones. You know, they've got their clients out there all over

the country. Edward Jones has offices. What do you tell them about what to do in this market? Because they've got crushed with their equities this year fixed income also, you know, worst year ever is what the purpose tell me? Man? What do you tell them, Yeah, it's been an unprecedented first nine to ten months in this market. It's been a challenge for diversified investors, for US investors that are

more equity focused, more fixed income focused, across the board. Now, what we will say is we're probably getting closer to the end rather than you know, at the start of this Fed rate hiking cycle, at the start of this inflation elevation cycle. And so the good news is if we do see at some point a FED funds terminal rate or a peak rate, yields tend to peak a couple of months ahead of that, and so there is

becoming more and more of an interesting opportunity. We have a lot of clients that are very heavily weighted in shorter duration bond CDs, you know, great source of income for now over time, we think there's an opportunity again, I know hearing mentions of CDs, c d s are

are hot. It's it's very interesting, but we think there's an aportunity to complement these short term investments with longer duration, maybe some investment grade bonds that you're locking in close to four percent rates for a longer period of time. And now is a good opportunity to start thinking about that,

certainly in the weeks ahead. UM. Similarly with equities, you know, of course we're down the SMP, growth has gotten killed even more than that UM, and over time there's an opportunity to complement some of those value defensive parts of the market with probably more growth, more tech as we head towards a peaking yields and stabilization and a move lower. But you know, perhaps early days, but a good time to start thinking about that portfolio diversification. What do you

think about the private markets? UM. We've been hearing a lot more about that lately as well, and I think retail interest is really growing. Yeah, you know, if you don't have liquidity needs in the near term, private markets are interesting, I think not as volatile of course, probably offer that diversification you're looking for. Or will they rebound as much as the equity market may in the months or you know, a couple of years ahead. Maybe not.

But I think in any allocation or any portfolio, you can consider a five to ten percent maybe even more depending on your investment horizon into private markets. I think it's a great source of diversification. Is there any sector in the equity space that you're telling your folks sharpen your pencils now, because when we do see a bottom in this market, of this market does turn or we start getting out of the heavy heavy selling, this is where you might want to want to buy after the

fed's last rate high. Yeah, now, I think you know it's a great point. And look, we've we've been talking about staples and healthcare for months now. I do think healthcare is an interesting one because it can offer you some growth and some kind of value components to it. There's parts of health care that are very much focused

on biotech or um, you know, next generation technologies. But interestingly, of course consumer discretionary and technology at the core is probably where we would hunt if we did think a peak in yields was ahead of us. And I think, um, it's a greight way again to to barbell your portfolio, and I think that that theme will play out. Keep in mind, when equity or economic growth slows, investors do tend to look for growth in their portfolios. So all right,

good stuff. I want to really appreciate you stopping by coming into Bloomberg and actor broker Shooter Mona Madgen Senior investment strategist Edward Jones. She was on with Survive that on Bloomberg Surveillance. Yeah, so I mean it's you know when you get a big dour John Farrell on on a inflation and a huge print like that, a huge print. Yeah. So it was much and radio is much more fun anyway. So let's let's be honest, all right, looking at these markets.

You know, bad news is SNPs off seven tenths of one percent. The good news is it's well off its bottom of the day. So we'll see how this market trades, uh this afternoon and yields a two year four point four or five on your two year note. All right, let's dig into the CPI data came in hotter than expected this morning, putting some more pressure on the feder Reserve the keep those rates higher. Uh, let's bring in

a Bloomberg Markets reporter. Critty couped up. She joins us here in our Bloomberg Interactive Brooker Studio and Bloomberck Economics chief US economist Anna Wong. And let's start with you. Boy. You were early, and it looks like you were right. This Federal Reserve is going to need to keep interest rates higher and probably for longer. What's your latest thinking. Yeah, so so the latest thinking is still the same as we had in two months ago when we made that call.

So look, when we made that call, we have the idea that inflation is going to be more persistent and stickier. And for today's cp I, we were also the highest on the street. We were calling for point six percent core CPI inflation um and and we were right and and and I think the the insight there is that there's just a part of the economy which is being

very sticky inflation. And we're not talking about just shelter I mean, everybody knows that shelter cause is going to come down next here because the um the way that shelter cost is measured, it lacks private measures by about a year. So that's going to come down. But the other stuff, like your car insurance premium. You're like, when your car broke down, you need to take take you know, pay to take care to take care of the repairs. All those are still in a catch up phase or

if you break down. Medical care is also more expensive. Medical care. That's the tricky part because starting next month, there's a little quirk and how it's measure that's going to produce a drag. But you know it does not you know, it does not negate the experience the household r Z in which is that their physicians bills are higher, or it's you know so So I think the point is that next year, I think it's quite unlikely for

inflation to fall below three percent. Our risk model is saying that sixty eight percent chance of inflation being between three and five percent next year. Can I just say, my daughter, not your head on the table. Yeah, we had to go to the hospital. She got eight stitches, four thousand dollars in change. Wo yep, how is that possible? But she's better, Well, she's fine. I just it's very expensive.

So pretty, I mean, we've got this higher print here today, stocks and bonds are reacting, but it seems kind of rational here. It feels a little bit, you know, stash are coming off the bottoms a little bit. So I'm I guess the market is trying to right. Well, it was. I think the knee jerk was certainly panic and it was there, Yeah, and it was there. It was down there for I want to say, at least thirty minutes

of trading um to see them paired. I think the way it's being interpreted is simply that and one thing. We're talking about this a lot. It's about the second derivatives, about the deceleration the the going into a third month where you were now expecting a cp I print to drop further below eight point one percent. I think what it does is just kind of dropped the bar even low. Um when you have two months now where you have inflation estimated at eight point one percent, two months they've

missed it. So once again the bar for the equity market is going to be even lower. So reacting to any positive news there and I think perhaps is that early sentiment they might be trading on a little bit. But honestly, uh, to me, it does also feel like a move to the dollar a little bit to move to yields. As you see yields come back down, the dollar follow I think you're seeing an inverse reaction in

the equity market. And since you and your team have been so hot at predicting this stuff, we got retail sales tomorrow, you want to give me a thought of what you think it might happen there? Um, So, so I think that what what what it is, is that what's driving inflation right now according to our whole we have a whole bunch of models that we look at,

is that we see a slight revival of US demand. Um. Perhaps because the last three months we have seen oil prices coming down, and how hope have more slightly slightly better resources freed up for for discretionary s menday. But still so I think that the retail sales to print tomorrow would be better than what we had seen a couple of months ago when everybody was talking about recession. But we are entering into a downshift and spending UM, as you know, gas gaffolding prices climb back up again.

So whatever good years we have tomorrow, what last Yeah? Yeah, I was gonna say. We're starting to see those commodities prices rise again. We're hearing concerns about um, China going into lock Shanghai going into lockdown again. It Shanghai, Shanghai, yeah, um. And it's Vince Signarella was telling us he thinks these supply chain pressures are are the real problem here. Do you agree? Well, I think the supply chain pressure was the problem in the first phase, initial phase of this

inflation uh. Period, high inflation period, but now it's it's no longer the core driver of inflation that it's rather wages trying to catch up to high inflation. The Dow actually turns positive here up forty one point on on the Dow here. Uh. And it's just real quick is a recession? Where are you in terms of a recession call? And i'd get a sense of how long it might be, how deep it might be, or what are you guys thinking? Our baseline is for our recession to begin around the

middle of next year. UM, I myself an increasing increasingly of the thinking that it might be not a shallow one, it could be a deep one because the FED is is keen on holding rates higher for longer. And in all the past recessions, the FED we cut in the middle of the recession at which provides some stimulus to the economy. We are unlikely to see that in this this current downturn. And also I think that the there are still a lot of buffers in the economy, for

example at the state and local government level. But there's still a lot of cash that's left over from the pandemic stimulus we're asked to mating. Probably about eighty billions still still of extra buffer at the state and local level. Um, I live in Virginia. I just got five hundred dollars picture bake from the Virginia governor. All Right, put it all on red. That that's my recommendation. Put it all on red. Yeah. But but just saying that there's still

a lot of juice in the economy. And while lower lower income household may have seen their excess savings depleted, the wealthier people still have a lot in their bank to cash of cash in their bank account. All right, good, good stuff. They're really appreciated. Uh, chief US economists for Bloomberg and Wong Uh. And pretty good to Bloomer Markets correspondent who was here in our Bloomberg interactive proper student, just doing a little round table there on that inflation.

Uh did it? Kind of I'm gonna take a look at some stocks because we've actually had some earnings over the last twenty four hours. And one of the names that kind of jumps out of me a little bit is Walgreens. Boots, Walgreens. We have a walk rans right around the corner here from here at Bloomberg. They're all over the place. The drug store train, but they do so much more. Uh. Jonathan Palmer joins us here. Jonathan Palmer is an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. He joins us

live in a Bloomberg Interactive broker studio. He's not phoning it in today. Uh. They had some better and expected results today, Jonathan. What are you taking away from this? Hi, Paul, thanks for having me on. So Walgreen's reported this morning, and really, if if we want to put some context around the report, expectations were very low. I mean, Walgreen's has been a huge beneficiary of vaccinations testing, and obviously with people going and getting lower boosters and COVID levels

going down, they were seen as this huge kind of headwind. Uh, you know, year over year approaching their fiscal two thousand twenty three. So the guidance they gave next year actually met expectations, which I think was a bit of a surprise. And the company had a two hour call where they really got glar annual about their efforts to transform the company from you know, what we think of as just as a traditional pharmacy into more of a healthcare service provider.

What are they saying about inflation? How's that impacting their margins. Yeah, so they've talked about it from a couple different angles. You know, they've had wag wage inflation over the last year year and a half. You know, they've had a hard time keeping pharmacist and pharmacy tax and they've been paying those people more. They see the wages are they're hiring actually improving over the last two months. It's interesting.

You guys were just talking about China. You know, a lot of the products that that kind of go in that front of store, you know, of of Walgreens come from China, and they said they're they're actually seeing some of those supply challenges ease right now. Well, this interesting. So but you're talking about so when we think about Walgreens, we think about the drug store chains. But you say they're trying to kind of transform themselves into more of

a broader healthcare company. How are they doing that. It's taking a couple of different tax So the probably the most obvious one is they've made a big investment into a company called Villa Geen d and are moving some of those clinics into their stores. They've been acquiring other assets that are kind of pharmacy or healthcare related, especially if armor se called Shields. They just closed an acquisition called care Centric earlier this week that does a lot

of home health. There's a lot of move from traditional health care settings into the home. So they're trying to capitalize on the shift of healthcare, you know, from traditional providers into uh different locations and kind of capitalize that with their their their footprint. I mean, they have uh competition, right because I'm sure all the other drug store change. I know CVS is trying to do that as well.

That's right, CVS is there with their health hubs. You know, we've got Amazon trying to buy or in the process of buying one Medical. We've got the big insurers moving and buying providers. So you know, I don't I don't want to say that the tip of the spear in this uh the strategy, but they're they're definitely making an effort to transform. You know, what has been kind of

a business under pressure the last couple of years. So just for like an average Walgreens or an average CVS store, what's the revenue breakdown between the prescription part of the business and the toothpaste in the shampoo and all the other stuff. So Additionally, you know kind of rule with them in the pharmacy space, about seventy of sales come from the pharmacy and the rest is what they call retail or front end Alright, So that business is it's

just like the rest of retail. It's kind of under pressure from e commerce or just I don't know other some of those pressures exactly. You know, you've had the Amazon impact, You've had wal Mart, You've had cost Co kind of eating away at those those retail margins over

the last couple of years. So these companies are looking for ways to reinvent themselves and and you know people, you know, I think the statistic is something along the lines of, you know, like nine of the US population was within like five miles of a CBS or a Walgreen. So Cracker Barrel can say, now, you said their customers come within you know, their stores or within one mile of an ex of offer freeway. So I get where

you're going with that. So the idea is that you know, go to where the patients are right and they're they're increasingly at home, so you know, they're they're looking at their footprint and saying, how do we how do we squeeze more dollars out of these stores. Are are any of the companies in your universe, um, lacking funding because financing costs are climbing. Yeah, it's a good question, you know.

That came up on the call this morning. Walgreen's is kind of a little bit unique in that they own a couple of Big Steaks and some other companies. They own about of their distributor, Maris source Bergen. They've been trying to sell their Boots pharmacy for the last year or so. That's kind of pending right now, so they haven't had those same kind of capital constraints. But you know, most of the companies that I cover are big healthcare incumbents.

They're pretty profitable, they have access to capital. It's not really an issue for these kind of bolton acquisitions. They want to do, all right, great stuff. Jonathan Palmer, Bloomberg Intelligence covers a lot of the healthcare space on the retail side of the healthcare space as well. Let's get right to it. Jeff Cleveland, director and chief economists were paid in in regal joins us on the phone. So, Jeff, this inflation print came in pretty darn hot. Um. Yes,

thank you. What are your thoughts? What do you what do you tell your clients? Well, the problem here is that everyone thought that inflation was going to moderate, and the hope was the goods prices would fade, so like use car prices would go down, which they did in this month's report, and then that would track down overall inflation. But that hasn't happened. The services side has continued to accelerate.

So this is a really really nasty report. UM. If you look at shelter for example, up point seven point eight percent month to month, medical care costs up point eight percent. If those services numbers that are sticky, and I think will continue to boost core inflation UH at least for the next few months and possibly well into next year. So that means, you know, core inflation year on year remains right around where it is UH six point six to seven percent UM into the middle of

next year. And I think that is a really nasty situation for the Federal Reserve and in turn for for investors. What is going on in the equity markets. We were down more than two percent on the SMP. Now we're up one point two percent. You know, we're we're looking at it over thousand points swing on the down Jones and tess Ravage currently gaining four hundred and fifty points.

Why our investors buying this? I don't know. If you got to talk to the producer here he brought a bond market economist to talk about the area market, I don't know. I mean, my gut tells me it's probably positioning. But there are people far far more, far better on this. Now that's what we're hearing as well. Yeah, I think the issue here for me is, Okay, if we're gonna see this kind of momentum month a month in inflation carring us through year in then the Fed goes seventy

five in November. It's quite likely they go seventy five in December, the Fed phones rate gets to five percent very soon. Here, um, do two year yields at forty forty three makes sense? Oddly not? In my view. Two year yields have to go higher, probably up closer to five or even above five percent, because the FT is going to get to five and they're gonna stay there for a while if they really intend on bringing inflation down.

So that to me is not a good mix for equities in the short run um, So that that's kind of my rough take. What's your recession call, Jeff, And I guess it's a question is kind of timing duration, you know, depth of those types of things. How what are you thinking about that today? Well? I have a simple man, So I think the fact that the unemployment rate fell last month is probably tells us we're not

inter recession. Generally, the unemployment rate is rising when you're intercession, so maybe we're not there yet, it just hasn't started. The other way that I like to look at it is three months, uh, you know T bills versus ten year yields. When that yield curve slope inverts, that starts the clock and there can be a lag. I mean, it could be nine to twelve months before the start of the recession. So right now, you know, that kind argues for us maybe going into recession second half of

next year. So it's something that's still off on the horizon, is it shall? I think the other question shallow. Everyone's in the shallow camp, so that kind of makes me nervous. You know. You hear a lot of like it'll be a we'll have a recession share, but it'll be mild I don't know. I don't know about that. I mean, on the one hand, you have aggressive FED tightening, which is likely to continue giving the inflation backdrop, so that

means you could have a much harder landing. And the second thing is it's just just been an unusual macro cycle. We had a huge amount of stimulus, we had a huge shifting consumer behavior. As it shifts back, maybe you have a more significant downturn. Yeah, I mean, I can't rule that out. I guess there. It happens once in a while when you get super hammered and then the next day you're kind of okay and you're like, wow,

I don't know how that worked out. But for the most part, when you drink this much, you know you're out sick. Yeah. People say, well, where's the imbalance, Jeffrey, I mean, we don't see it. Consumers look good, household balancies look good, and I say, well, you know, the imbalanced this time around was on the fiscal and monetary support.

It was an unusual and epic amount of stimulus provided. Yes, perhaps at the time it made sense given what was expected to happen with COVID, but nonetheless it was huge. It was you know, two to three trillion in money transferred to household that went into spending, and that has to unwind at some point, right, Well, and all the other thing is, I mean, does the consumer look good? Um, Brett Farve got paid, but there were a lot of other people that found it more difficult to access that

fiscal stimulus. And maybe you know, luxury apartments are still going for a lot. First class tickets are going to be selling. You know, young sales will won't get hurt that much, but it's gonna be harder for the other half. Yeah, well, we'll see how the retail sales comes in tomorrow. Jeffrey, thank you so much for joining us. Jeffrey Cleveland, director and chief economists for Paid In and Regal. He sick guy that did the Triple Crown of swimming, I mean

around Manhattan that we went out the Catalina channel. He did the English channel. I don't know what possesses people to do that kind of stuff, but he did it. Good for him. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe and listen to interviews with Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter at Matt Miller put on fall Sweeney, I'm

on Twitter at pt Sweeney Before the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio