Housing Market, Apple Downgrade, Recession Impact on Minorities

research at Wisdom Tree, and Nika loved it. You start, we can talk about your economic call here, but how do you think about the housing market? Here? Matt and I are just talking about the you know, the mortgage rate surging. What do you think what do you think the impact is on housing and housing market on the economy. Thanks for having me. Yes, you know, you're you're hitting what you're you're you're really targeting one of the most important sectors that showing signs of pain at this point

in time. You know, higher rates have clearly been reflected in the higher mortgage trades in the US, UH you know, which is at an extremely high rate right now and it's clearly impacting you know, the US average household UM you know, we've already seen signed the slowdown in Canada, in the Australian housing market, UM, and it's it's slowly

trickling down into United Kingdom as well. UM. You know, and we and obviously you we've seen UM record stimulus package that he's been UM unleashed in in UK and at the same time you've got bank in England, you know, trying to figure out how they're supposed to health the economy. UM. Through this phase is you know, we've seen a big a clash with the sterling in response to the moves that we've seen from the government and UM, you know clearly Andrew Bailey's hands it tied. So far, all we've

seen is an intervention UM. And that's really the save the pension market. So I think broadly with rising weights, uh, you know, the first pain is being felt by the housing market, and I think it's really a squeezeably cudity that is impactingly invested globally. Well, what about Anika. Your sounds like you're based in London. I know you studied at Oxford for example. UM. How much of the U sort of self inflicted pain out of the UK is

spreading around the world. Are are we seeing even in US treasury markets contagion um from what's being viewed as like the biggest policy policy mistake in a generation from your government. Well, it's very much. Uh, you know, it's I think if we didn't see that intervention by the Bank of England yesterday, um, we could we could have seen,

you know, some widespread impact across financial markets. So I think they did just about managed to save uh, you know, the pension system here in the UK, uh, you know, and and try to arrest those margin goals that the pension sector was was being faced with. Uh. But you know, they're they're very very There was a very high likelihood that this could have spread, uh you know, spread across

to the US and globally. Um, if those margin calls were not arrested, and if uh, you know, it's the extension sounds just hit a hit a scenario where the it was, you know, sell whatever you can to get that liquidity back back on board. But doesn't it look like we did see some margin calls. I mean, doesn't it look like we are seeing some just liquidation in these markets. I see on the S and P five hundred,

for example, only five stocks are rising, so fourde or down. Um. We saw you know, US rates to ten US tenure one above four percent. So it wasn't just the guilt market that went haywire. It was treasuries as well, I guess because of low liquidity, but also surely um, British pension companies had to sell treasuries to meet margins. Uh, that's absolutely right. I think you know, the psychology on the market right now is of extreme anxiousness um. And and that is that is why we we've been seeing

this sharp sell off this week. But that that set off really was triggered when the market started to take the send a lot more seriously for what they were actually saying. You know, until this, until this, until the Said meeting took place, I think the market was expecting the SAID to pivot. We saw that mid rally take place, and especially essentially we were you know, what we were seeing um across equili markets was this brief turnaround of um,

you know, hope that the SAID would pivot. Uh, you know, growth would come back into limelight and um, everything would

would be okay. But the Fed you know, has drawn the line and said we are going to quite fixed on raising great until uh, you know, we have the Insotian story under control and and I think with that in the background, in addition with Q three earning, UH for us to look forward to UM, you know that that I think that's that's opening up a lot of concerns, especially in the US because uh, you know everyone if everyone is now coming to terms with the fact that

you know, you have this extremely strong dollar that is reading have a cross risk asset. UM. If you look at concerned to learning expectations for earnings, they you know, they're still quite high. They are correcting, but they still remain quite high. UM. And you know, the strong dollar certainly puts a lot of pressure for UH international US companies that are now not going to be that competitive.

So UM I think invested essentially bracing for a bit of bad news that that could be triggered in uh you know the Q three earning scenario where you could see a lot more companies being FedEx Right, all right, A great stuff. Really appreciate you taking the time out

of your busines schedule to check in with us. A. Nika Gupta, director of macroeconomic research at Wisdom Tree, journey US from London, where it has been a tumultuous week, particularly in that uh English bond market there, the guilt market there, just a crazy week there as they try to kind of prevent uh you know, a real contagient in that market, and apparently fairly successful in some of the interventions this week. Dave Harden joins us. He's a

founder president of Summit Global Advisors. And initially I thought it was in Summit, New Jersey. You were hoping. I was hoping, but I wasn't even close. Bountiful, Utah. Dave, where is Bountiful Utah? Well, it's on the It's in the most beautiful place on earth. We're setten here in Utah, right next to Salt Lake City just north and uh, you know, the fall is amazing. You guys need to come out here and experience it. Good stuff. I'm out there. You know this. This is what happens with me and

my ski buddies in New Jersey. We all talk a big game in like around September. Let's go to tell you ride. Let's go to like Montana, and then when push comes to show, we say, a screw it, Let's go out to Salt Lake and we'll ski all the great places out there. That's what always happens. Well, that's right, that's a bounty of them right there is also you could go to Park City and all that good stuff. Like the canyon. You just have to pick your You just have to pick your canyon you want to go

up to. All right, Dave, are we are we capitulating? I'm not sure if I used that correctly. Are we seen a capitulation here? Or it's just just another day? Well so far in just another day, but we'd like to get it better. At the VIX up ten percent today, we're getting closer thirty three. We want to see that VIX about forty. That's real, true capitulation capitulation. So if you if you look back at the past corrections when those bottoms hit, we gotta get that bickx up to forty.

So not quite there. We're getting closer, but I'm afraid there's still some more downside ahead. So why aren't we pricing in a deeper, darker recession? Are people still sticking with the forecast for um short and shallow one? Well, I think I think there's still some hope out there. Right, We've been through COVID where the government build US out. We've been through COVID where the FED beld is out, We've been through pivot changes constantly throughout the year where

the Fed's beild is out. So why can't they do it one more time? Dave, I'd noticed on some of the names that you guys are buying Lockheed Martin, simple L M T. Is that just simply you know there's a big war on over in Europe and they need stuff. Is that kind of the play there? Well, for certainly that's that's that's a defensive nature. We absolutely know that in the down markets, defensive plays tend to play better, and so you want to be defensive here in this

in this situation. So it's also diversification. I think Blackey Martin is a great option that goes with a lot of people's tech stocks, It goes with a lot of people's utilities, whatever they're buying, banks, financials, et cetera. But let's face it, locked themselves have solid rings, they have a low p they're cheap, and the war is not going away anytime soon. It seems like as the US just told everybody to get out of Russia. So what

else do you like? Are your other plays? Defensive. I see, for example, kind of o phillips here, is that a defensive play? Well, Conics a little bit of a defense in the sense that it could be diversification. But I think energy stocks have pulled back throughout the summer. You saw crude oil fall tremendously, and so I think a lot was taken off the table there. But Conical has a pretty good exposure to supplies, natural gas, et cetera. You know, those supplies issues create higher demand. We got

Winner coming on. They have a great dividend yesterday, so yesterday and they were up more than four So you love that. You love to get paid to have a dividend. Yeah. So in this studio, Dave, we are a meta and alphabet free studio. So Facebook is one of the names or Meta that's the ticker. But Facebook's a name that you're avoiding. Why still, Well, I think I think, let's face it, Facebook is going through a business model change they started a while back. They changed their ticker now

from you know, Facebook to Meta. They're trying to go away from this social media and the negativeness. When Mark would come before Congress, it just didn't work out very good for him. So they've been trying to transition their revenues from Instagram and Facebook to this metaverse, and it's gonna take some time. And over the last four consecutive quarters,

they've missed journeys, they've missed estimates. Analysts aren't really getting their arms around kind of where the money is coming from and how this business model is going to pan out. I think long term, if you've got twenty years, great, maybe that's a great business model to be into and and the and the future, so to speak. But until they get there and create that space right now, I would just say you need to avoid that until their

business model completely changes. Isn't there a certain point? I mean, they're trading for eleven times earnings. Isn't there a certain point when it gets cheap enough? Well? I think so we've gotta be careful of those cheap traps, right in the sense that you think, wow, look how cheap this is, but you've got it continues to miss earnings, So how cheap can it go? And so I think it can

go a little bit cheaper. And with volatility in the market, I think there's just some better things you can purchase for right now. Maybe maybe look at them in six months or maybe look at them in about a year. Dave talked to us about the Salt Lake. How's the economy there? How, how are folks doing there? How how is it on the other end of this pandemic here. Well, it's interesting. Utah has a lot of small business. It's had a lot of big players come in with silicon slopes.

We're talking the Apples and the Googles and the technologies of the world. And Adobe very big in Utah, so a lot of you know, it's Golden Sacks second biggest employer area. So from an economy standpoint, I think we're doing very very well. Housing is starting to soffer though at the six point you know whatever, it feels like ten percent interest rates on mortgages, and so I think you're seeing some of those investors kind of get nervous,

and that's making some people a little bit nervous. Definitely, recession is on the mind, even in the small towns. Yea, all right, Dave, good stuff. Well we'll think snow certainly at this time of year. For our good friends out West, Dave Harden found their president in Summit Global Investments. I mean he got his under grad from like, where is it Boston College? And then gets his masters from Boston University and then he says, I'm not heck with this stuff.

I'm heading out west. You Yeah, I mean why not. You can manage money any We can do a lot of things anywhere that We've proven that with the pandemic. So we're bringing on a rock Rana. He covers all things technology for Bloomberg Intelligence. Just give us your updated view of Apple. Where are we here? Is this? How is the story holding up here? Because I know there was some concerns about the new iPhone and maybe the

demand wasn't there. What's what's your call right here? Yeah, So, Paul, we talked about over a month ago when we basically said that iPhone putein is not going to move the needle just because of two reasons. And the first is the economic backdrop of the global economy is fared worse than it was a year ago. Second is that Europe in China makes up for total revenue for Apple, and that those two geographies up pretty much, you know, in

really bad shape right now. And I would say the third element would be that the iPhone puotein is not the hardware upgrade that you normally see on a three year cycle. That's going to be next year. So we have been a lot more cautious than most people, I would say, for some time, and I think I would say the rest of the street is catching up at this point. What more can an iPhone do? I mean, if it doesn't make me breakfast, like, I don't see how it can get any more advanced than it already is.

So I mean, I said this last time. Also it does. They don't need to find new users. They have an installed bait of installed base of over eight hundred million users. Every year they're gonna sell two twenty million bits, no matter what that is plus a minus one to two. In good years they're going to sell a few more, and bad years they're going to sell a few less. So next if you didn't upgrade this year, you may upgrade the year after all the year after, but eventually

you will upgrade. And the reason you're gonna upgrade is battery life. When the battery life starts to bother you, you're gonna say, you know what, I'm going to go out and get another phone, keep it for three years and then go out and um, you know, upgrade at that time. Do they do They engineer them so that the battery starts to die right at the end of your two year contract. It's not two years. It's usually a little more around three and a half to four years.

So I mean a lot of people upgrade two years. I upgrade about two years. A lot of people upgrade five years. But you take the average of it, it's about three point seven, you know, three point six years or so. And that's all Apple cares about at any given time. The reason why this company is so stable in terms of free cash flow is because that installed base is sacred. People do not it doesn't matter economies go to bad. They're not going to get rid of

their iPhone and go buy a Nokia. But so what, So what do we read into this bloomberg um scoop that you know they were going to upgrade. They were at least thinking about upgrading. They were telling their suppliers like an upgrade in terms of you know, producing more, selling more, and now they're not and they're gonna do flat flat is very good, Matt. Flat flat revenues from this year the next year for Apple would be very good. They're going to generate in three cash flow. If they

go flat, that's not bad for me. Yeah, but the stock is down four and a half percent today, so it's bad for somebody. It's bad for praatos. That's I mean, this is again depending on who's the buyer of the stock,

if you have long term holders versus short term traados. Alright, So when I hear you know, smart people like you who analyze Apple on a day to day basis and you speak to institutional investors on a day to day basis, it seems to me that the story for here that I guess the delta for the Apple income statement and it's stock is the services business? Is that is that

still something people focus on? Yeah, and again you know, services has been very strong over the last two and a half years, and that's another area we think, you know, it's going to be probably the first time next year that it's not going to be in double digits, and

that is not something that people are used to. People started reading Apple like a growth stock over the last I would say three years or so, and I think a lot of people are not coming to realization that this company is going to have a made too high single digit growth rate. And I think that's a lot of the market is digesting it. You know, we published another note last week which says the delta that we see between evaluation delta between Microsoft and Apple is not

fair enough of you. We think Microsoft is a far more diversified business model than Apple, and yet Apple trades is a much higher multiple. What we are seeing over the last seven eight days is kind of a rerating of that. All right, So is there anything in the Apple story? And I think I already know the answer here, But you look at all the cash on the bounty, look at all the free cash flow. Is there anything I'm not gonna say transformative, but something that would move

the needle for this company. I don't know whether it's an acquisition, whether it's a change in, maybe a return neck of capital shareholders a car. Is there anything out there? Yeah? So from a transformative fine, I don't think it is going to be anything. From a product point, I would hope that the company is going to be far more aggressive of their buy backs. I mean, exactly speaking, they can they can spend billion dollars a year on buy back.

If they do that, our calculations say that EPs is going to go up anywhere from four to five, that's not bad. If you get flat earning the PLATFOM revenue growth, or let's say even a high single digit, a low single digit revenue growth you add some buy backs to it, that's ten percent EPs growth. That's not bad in a recession. That's actually very impressive in our you all right, So

what's the across your universe? You got? You see everything across the tech space where you know, given that the economic backdrop we're in, when you as you talk to institutional investors, where are they putting their money these days in tech? I think they're all running away from tech arctually because of inflation. And I think that is um that is going to remain the same trend unless we see a Regerson inflation. And I said this yesterday on the TV also that the delta over here is what's

the discount rate. If the two year and the ten year remain at these levels and we find out that inflation is going down, then the Pick universe is going to have a blast. You're going to see a massive reversal of trends here. But the problem is people don't know which way inflation is going to go. If inflation keeps the way it is, and we keep on raising grades, then the discount rate for growth sox gets hammered and the valuations remain where it is or even down. Let

me just ask quickly. We only have a minute left about the car um It seems like you're kind of poop pooing it, and in fact, nobody seems that pumped about it. But they do keep hiring people to work on it. So what's the deal. Yeah, it's our Our thesis on that is it's going to really help their market cap. Frankly speaking, just because tess Like is such a hot s it is coming. They're making their own car. Yeah, but I do not know whether it's coming this year

or next year or the year after. I have no way of figuring out when that's going to come. But something is going to happen there there. You're right, they hide a lot of people in that area. They're talking to portion about something. So something's gonna come, but I have no way of figuring out when it is. In my view, it's going to once again not be that in her mental to the sales and bottom line, but

it's going to really help their market cap. All right, on a rock, ran I thank you appreciate it as always phoning it in from some remote location, which I note, but he does come in, you know, regularly. But he I think he absconded from the metro New York region. But during the pandemic, he's one of those smart guys. Rana. He covers all things technology. Vince Wignarella. He does all the trading stuff for Bloomberg News and he has just

made working from home a science and art. But something got him into the city today, so we we we grabbed him and Vince, what a great day, I mean, another rough day out in the markets here. I'd love for you to put in what we're seeing over the last six seven weeks. Put it in the context here. Yeah, like like you said, tough, tough playing in the sandbox today, traders getting a little bit confused and spank. Today we saw a little bit of a bit in sterling, a

little bit of a bid for UK gilts. That usually spells positive for risk. And there was a hope that the downside we about today, which came from the data you mentioned earlier, um would turn a bit and and markets would pick pack up. And that really hasn't happened. And so the traders that I'm talking to are feeling a little bit more pain than normal because I think they feel like they got sucked in by the moves in the UK and that was supposed to lead to

something which it hasn't. So what do you think about the moves in the UK that we saw. It seemed really dramatic, thirty year guilds moving, swinging a hundred basis points in both directions after kind of a catastrophic economic plan was announced and followed by intervention of the b o E. How much did that move US markets? Move

US markets a lot? I think there was some sentiment out there yesterday that maybe, uh, something similar could happen here and the FED would have to pause a little bit, that this, uh, the fiscal situation um, the little bit of an instability in the bond market over in the UK might might pour into the US, and that the central banks in general might have to say, wait a minute, you know, and place it's really bad, but you know, fiscal stability is obviously far more important, and maybe move

a little bit more towards this. They are not doing that. They're not saying it. Every every voice we've heard, I we're gonna hear two more later today at least off top of my head and Mr and daily Uh, and they are most likely they're gonna come off the top rope and continue the preaching from the same hymno about higher rates. So how high are they going to go? I mean four point six percent at one point Pal

in the last press conference alluded to. But he also you know, mentioned five they could be headed at that far and he just said they want to get real rates up. Um, you know, two levels that would shock the economy. Um, how far do you think they're going to go? I personally think they have one more in them, and then I think they're gonna shock the economy, and I think we're gonna be going into a recession and they're gonna have to pause. But they don't seem to care.

And you know, and it is troubling, to be perfectly honest with you, because I'm not really sure where it says in the f O m C mandate. Uh, we're allowed to take out the paddle and old the economy, uh and punish people just they have to keep procession inflation down. So well, you know, the inflation is coming down. I mean, other than we saw the data this morning, But in general, the anecdotal evidence we're seeing from data is that inflation is coming down, just not coming down

fast enough for the FED. And the question is, you know, is it is it legitimate that the FED should be impatient and try and get it back to where they'd like to see it in a very, very short They don't want to make an Arthur Burn's mistake, right. I think they already have. Um, they made it in the middle of the pandemic by saying it was transitory. I mean,

that was the reverse Arthur Burns mistake. And I think now it's almost more of an ego game where they're so afraid of losing credibility that that that's what's really driving them, not the economy. But they can't. I mean, what what reason does Jerome Powell have to turn around? He's he's got like a hundred fifty million dollars, right, so he's doing well on his own. Um, he doesn't care. He's been confirmed for this term. Um Uh. I just

can't imagine anything that would convince him. You, Elizabeth Warren can tweet all day long and he's going to continue on this path. Yeah, they don't. They don't care what Jesus. Actually, most of the street doesn't really carry you. So when you go out and and I'm assuming you're in a city, so you're gonna probably meet a couple of your trader buddies and have a beverage of your choice. As Tom would say, what do you think you hear from the

trader's day to day or we're in this market? Are they just kind of staying on the sidelines, trading around the edges? I mean, I can't imagine trying to catch a falling knife here. Yeah, no, they're they're trading around the edges. It's a little bit of stick and move kind of thing. You know, they'll step in briefly, um, look for look for a quick profit. Perhaps if lucky,

um quick quick stops. If if they're unlucky, and and they're just getting in and out, um, you know they do keep asking The general question is when is it, like, when do we feel comfortable stepping in for a more longer term play And that's just not there yet. That's a lot of folks will say, Like as it relates to the VIX, for example, in the VIX today is up about eight percent to just uh, just about thirty three.

You need to see a VIX up around forties. That something that that you think about when you when you're trying to identify are we add or near close to a bottom or pass the bottom? Fix? Really isn't something I paid that close attention to. To be honest, I've never really had UM. I think that the key thing to pay attention to, you know that it is really going to be the data. And I think the data

is starting to show inflation coming down. We need to see it's coming down far more aggressively UH to get Powell off the gas pedal, but I think it will and certainly recession will do the trick. What do you watch for in terms of UH volatility measures? I have to move up on my screen. It's you know, off the chart at this point. In terms of capitulation signs, what what do you watch? I mean, I think we're

just seeing it across the board. You know you mentioned but UK gilst did yesterday and that was just a pure short covering, nasty move and we saw it with equities following through yesterday. A lot of a lot of what we're seeing is driven by a smaller positions and that's what's causing the higher volatility. People not sticking and that they're not staying with what they have, They're they're getting chased out easily, and a lot of that chase

is machine driven. I mean, the the algos are really running the game at this point because the moves are so fierce. I mean, people have been saying the Algoes are running the game since I've been in this job, and that's really true. I mean, it's it's totally true. It's one of the things I think the s sc SEC is blown in a major way by taking humans out of the picture and making it, you know, completely a machines driven and it feels like they're all they're

all written by the same programmer. Actually, it's it's kind of odd. Do we get parody on the pound? I feel like it's in the cards. Um we're not seeing the fiscal policy being altered in any way by the Prime Minister. It runs at odds to monetary policy. Those things usually uh and badly for our currency. I think we're seeing, you know, again, a bit of a relief rally. It's been sold off so aggressively, more short covering today

back on a one ten handle. But um as my trader friend buddies would have say, better levels to sell, right, all right, good stuff. Hey, Matt, I have to note that we got Vincent's studio, but I have to note he has not taken off his coat. I don't think he plans on didn't take it off on TV either. Okay, so sometimes I don't take off my jacket. You know, it's can be a little chilly. Just I just take away like he's got one eye on the door already. Yeah, so that's kind of was my take away. Great to

see my friend. Thanks for coming and give us sharing some of your thoughts here on these marks another rough day out there for the trader types as well. Jay Bryson joins us well as Fargo chief economists. Jay, thanks so much for joining us here. I love to just start off by saying, or just asking if this economy is either in a recession or goes into a recession in a in a time when we've got high inflation.

It seems like, you know, some of the some groups are gonna be that can't really afford to be hit by this, are gonna be hit the heart. How do you think about that? Well, that's that's true. I mean

when you go into into recession. I mean, obviously the unemployment rate rises, and you know people who um are are are working and who are particularly in particularly simply called sensitive sort of industries that you see a lot, that's where the layoffs tend to occur, and so um, you know people who are working in those industries, and I would account Hispanics among that group could be hit harder than other people. I was, I have a canned

question I've been asking this week. A viewers sent it to me and I thought a listeners send it to me, and I thought it was good enough to save, so I'll pitch it to you as well. He says, I'm curious to know last year's inflation is transitory, seems to be this year's short and shallow recession. What changes the short and shallow to uh, you know, longer and deeper. Well, so, first of all, I guess it would be if inflation

doesn't come down as much. And so you know, right now the market is priced for terminal said funds rate of roughly four and a half percent. If inflation doesn't come down, maybe it's six percent. And the more the higher rates go, the more things are going to start to break, and the other thing would just be some hidden vulnerabilities that we don't really know about. I mean, looking for example, look what's happened in the UK this week and right now that's causing a fair amount of

dislocations in the treasury market here. Um, maybe there's more things like the UK out there that we're not thinking about right now that are deep beneath the surface. But if those things start to break, then potentially, you know, you could have a bunch of financial unwinding occurring other places around the world. It could be could lead the continent around the world. What do you worry about right now?

I mean, I saw, um, the CarMax earnings come out earlier and the shares are down, But really across the across the industry, those companies that are public, like Carbona or On Automotive, they're all trading down big time, General Motors and Ford as well, because the concern is consumer sentiment is weakening and rates are rising hitting demand right as those car makers and manufacturers are finally getting supply

back up to speed. Yeah, I mean, so you know, in general kind of goes back to what I was talking about before in terms of cyclically sensitive interest rate sensitive sort of industries. You mentioned the car industry, you know, that's obviously interest rate sensitive. Another industry that's really interest rate sensitive is housing. I mean, we're already seeing housing

weakening significantly. You know, you mentioned earlier that the yield on the on the the you know, for the third year sixth or eight mortgages up to six and three quarters per cent. We haven't seen that in decades, um, and so you could see, you know, you could really start to see the housing work is starting to weaken here as well. So, J I know you and your team are out with this report about you know, the potential impact on Hispanic workers here in a potential recession.

Where are we just it just feels like for the broader economy, we're at our near full employment here. Give us the picture in the Hispanic community and maybe how that might play out if we do, in fact, you know, have a material recession. Yeah. So you know, I've said a few times now already about cyclically sensitive sort of industries. And when you look at where Hispanics are, I'll call them overrepresented, um. And so keep in mind a Hispanics

account for a roughly ent or so of the workforce. Okay, if you look at construction, Hispanics account for a third there. Construction cyclically sensitive. If you look at transportation and warehousing, um, you know again Hispanics account for more than of the workforce there. Non durable manufacturing account for more than These

are all cyclically sensitive sort of industries. And so if the economy were go into recession or if we see, you know, a long period of weak economic growth, that's where you're probably gonna get some more layoffs in those sorts of industries. And I would expect to see the unemployment rate among Hispanics, which is kind of close to the overall national rate right now, I would expect to

see that rise more. And we definitely have seen that in the last three cycles, where the Hispanic rate tends to go up more during the recession than what it does for the overall population. All right, j let's talk hoops. Is North Carolina even gonna be able to field a basketball team this year? Are you kidding me? Carolina? You know they have all these guys coming back, who are you know, seniors? You know the team that beat Duke last year in the final in the final four, they're

all they're all back, And who does Douke have. I mean they have a bunch of freshmen who have never played together. So we have and we have a new coach though, So that you have a new coach, you can allow your players to drive stolen cars where Oh yes, that's a d u I right, there's a little d o I issue for my for my dukeys. All right, Jake, thanks so much for joining us. Jay Brice and he's the chief economist for Wells Fargo and he is all in U n C. He's got the undergrad and economics

from UNC. Dr philosophy economics from the University of North Carolina. He lectures there. He's on the economic board. He is all in tar heels. I'm sure he bleeds tar Heel blue. And if God's not Atario, why is the sky Carolina blue? See that's kind of I learned in my two years of Duke. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe and listen to interviews with Apple Podcasts

or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter at Matt Miller V three pen on ball Sweeney I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio