Here's Second Covid Wave We Hoped We Wouldn't See: JHU's Sauer

We're getting the numbers out of you know, you're right now, Italy recording a record new daily coronavirus cases of just more than ten thousand, ten thousand and ten people in Italy. On Thursday it was just eight thousand, eight hundred. We have England, you know, fighting in terms of Boris Johnson telling some of the districts to shut themselves down, places like Manchester, you know, really reacting to this. So it's it's causing a lot of trouble around the world again, Lauren,

how much worse is this going to get? Once again? You know, I don't think we know, but I think all of the signals are indicating that we need to be prepared for it to be bad again. Um, even in places that we thought we had sort of passed

the peak. I think a lot of us are starting to think that this is the second wave that we've been hoping we didn't see, UM, and that some people have dismissed as not coming, especially because it's aligning with respiratory viruses and more generally so UM, making sure that that we have a sense of what cases are COVID cases, what cases are flu and RSV cases, and really being able to manage those patients appropriately. I think we're going

to continue to see the numbers take up across the globe. Yeah, and you have to worry about hospitals once again, you have to worry about senior homes and so on. Boris Johnson just saying about an hour ago that he doesn't want new national virus lockdowns, and and there's many countries that don't. But you do see the likes of France imposing curfews and the likes of Ireland saying that you can't gather in people's homes anymore. Um. Is that what

it's going to take? More complete shutdowns? Yeah? I mean I don't think anyone wants to see these lockdowns. I think that they are really challenging to implement and enforce and have can have you know, dramatic impacts on people, and particularly on the mental health space, and and the idea that they impact the our ability to get people

back into schools, back into jobs, back into the economy. Um. But we did see the efficacy of these control measures early in the pandemic, um, you know, and in the spring and summer, So they shouldn't be discounted for sure. And while I'm sure they'll be applied regionally based on the way cases are moving, Um, they we definitely can't discount them as a control measure at this point, Lauren.

You know, after the President got sick and sort of you know, basically went on national television and radio for sort of four days straight and then appeared at a you know, a town hall last night and seemed to be in good condition. Does it mean that therapeutics have got that good that you could go immediately to hospital as soon as you feel symptoms and get these steroids and these drugs and be fine four days if you're one of the people that receives the virus in this

for a fairly generic way. Yeah, I don't think that that's what it means at all. In fact, I think that the president received exceptional care as the president of the United States, and I think his case actually highlights, UM the disparities of care across the nation, across our nation,

and across the globe. UM that that many people who had been infected with with oars kobe to like him, UM, but who are not the President, who don't, who won't receive these exceptional standards of care, UM did not do as well and continue to not do as well. And we still see people dying across the globe every day because UM, they don't have this access to care and they don't have this exceptional management. But also because it may be, you know, a one off case. We can't

learn anything from a single case. You know, there's so many confounding variables in what happened to him and his course of treatment and how his case was managed that there's no way to infer that it's specific to one rug or one experimental therapeutic or one type one element of his care. UM, all those things combined probably created an environment in which he UM received the best you know, had the best possible outcome. Anyone of his stats could

have expected. Yeah, and I think that bear is repeating. And Chris Christie spent a week in the hospital, for example, he also got all sorts of drugs that you know, we don't know about. Possibly not as well cared for as the president, but probably very very closely, you know, in terms of the standard. But if you look at England right now, we just heard that four thousand, six hundred forty seven people were hospitalized and new virus deaths were up by one thirty six the day before. So

people are still dying daily from this virus. I think that needs to be underlined constantly. Is there any reduction in the fatality rate in terms of who's getting it? Yeah, UM, I can't speak to the actually like the specific numbers. I think there's a lot of people working on understanding

how we manage these patients and if mortality is decreasing. Um. I haven't seen the you know, the latest data on that, but I can say that I think we're getting better at managing, UM, how how we manage, how we ventilate, how we take care of these patients and so um, you know, we are able to get patients out of the hospital faster, which is always better. For people. UM, we're able to keep people off mechanical ventilation, which demonstrates

that we're managing their respirations better. So we're learning a lot more about the patients and how to manage um these respiratory effects and that that always will lead to improved outcomes. If you can keep people off mechanical ventilation, you know, it's it's always better to keep people from being intubated. So I think we are getting better at caring for COVID nineteen patients. UM. I don't know if

we if we can say that we've reduced mortality yet. Um, but we ventilate less and we um and we get people out of the hospital quicker, Lauren. Really just time for yes or no answer. But at the beginning, people were discouraged from going to hospital until they really felt like it was life and death. Now it seems like people are being encouraged to go immediately. What's your advice,

I would say, get tested. That's step one. So get tested. UM, you know your status, and if you're feeling unwell, then it's time to call your doctor or go to the hospital. If you don't have a primary care doctor. Laurence, thank you. We put you on the spot all the time to try and give us answers. And we're fully aware that you all are learning about this day by day as well, and we appreciate that you keep up with all of

the everything that's going on. Lauren sour Johns Hopkins University, Assistant Professor of Emergency Medicine, delighted to welcome kids Juke's chief Global effects strategist for Associated General and so much more. In fact, that's just the beginning of what he does for Associate A General Kit. Let's get straight into it. The e C. S vonder Lyon is sending a team

to London next week to intensify talks. Why why is the European Union being so nice if you like, to Britain when Boris Johnson gave himself a self imposed deadline of yesterday, um I look, I think in the end it's in the interest of both parties to get a deal, at least a deal, not to add further disruptions to their economies. Remember, you know, these are big trading partners

for the EU as a whole. The UK is about number three or number two you know out there in terms of number three in terms of overall trade, So it's not it's not negligible even for them. It's a bigger relationship the other way around by without any doubt at all. But so they have an interest in getting something over the line. You wouldn't want the negative hit from a freeze on trade or a real major disruption on trade between the UK and the EU to happen

in the middle of a pandemic. He wouldn't want to happen, ever, But it would be really dumb not to be able to get something cobbled together in the middle of a pandemic. Um, So I suspect that the EU will feel that they have to keep on coming at it and going at it. In my fifth suspect, but for all the rhetoric that the UK will have to stay at it as well, um, trying as hard as it knows how to try to make sure it gets you know, a better deal than

the one that thinks it is inadequate. But but you know, clearly it's easy to make a mess of this from here. Yeah, no, absolutely, And I'm sure I hear what you're saying. But if Europe has already announced to it's sending a team next week, then what's the incentive for Boris Johnson to back down on anything or to reach some kind of compromise on anything before the weekend. I mean you say in your note that you say it seems unlikely the UK side

will walk away. I guess that's something, But it also means that the UK doesn't really need to come up with some kind of solution. Well the UK, you know, I mean sort of. The facts are still that the UK has more to lose economically, um, and perhaps has you know, look the more difficult job given the starting point politically, that that the UK government may have a trickier task in terms of selling failure to negotiate something sensible to its own supporters. But um, you so the

UK needs to save face. But the UK also needs to limit the economic damage because there's there's no getting away from fact that is that is bigger here. In that sense, the UK it still doesn't want to just walk away, but it does want the European side to understand we could. Um, the rest of us are looking there saying can you please all get you know, at least something that avoids this cliff edge disaster in the

first quarter of next year. Little send the economy you know, straight back into a deep recession again at exactly the wrong time. Um, and and maybe that's still possible. I mean, I would say my my central assumption is that you know, at this point they're going to make a mess of it. But um, you know, at least, you know, while they still talk, maybe maybe sense prevails somehow. Yeah, Ki explained to us why Europe is not happy and why Britain

is not happy. So on fisheries, for example, it's just one one example, but there's also that have a playing field. There's also other items on the agenda, and Europe wants to make sure that the UK doesn't leave clauses open such that it can decide on subsidies in the future without Europe's input. I mean that seems reasonable now, Yeah, So the I mean, I think this is the nature of of all trade deals is they're very complicated in terms of people looking forward and trying to prevent someone

being able to cheat in the future. And part of the issue is that after you know, forty five years of a free trade area, neither side is very good at working out how you untangle it. Equally, the purpose, if you like, politically, was to be able to walk away from the EU from the UK government's perspective, and they're they're not going to interfere in our domestic business, so they feel bound to that statement, whereas in practice

any trade deal involves a compromise on exactly that. Um. So again, you know, they have to find the way to swallow some pride but get most of what they want on both sides. And you know it's whether they have the political will to manage that. And of course all this is going on as lockdowns continue to increase in severity across Europe and in Britain as well, the House gatherings even in barred in London at the moment,

and in other areas obviously across England. Kit what happens to Sterling and the euro and this environment, and does some of this depend on the dollar and what happens with general election here? Um it almost everything depends on what happens with the dollar as well. But look, I think the market I mean the last you know, I threw out a Twitter pole lunchtime today when when Boris Johnson made his comments and about sixty four think no deal is likely. So the market has something priced in

for no deal. But if you if you do get a walk away, UM, I think we'll see, certainly we'll see, certainly, sir, Sterling lose UM five percent or so and more probably between five and ten percent against the euro, and the euro would lose something against the dollar as well, So O cable on that basis if we just walk away

will be the wrong side of UM pretty quickly. I don't think it's you know, Sterling is so beaten up and historically so weak at these levels in trade weighted terms that I don't think it's it's it's going to send it dramatically further than that. I do think that the worst story will be, you know, we're we're likely to end up in a bad environment with negative rates sometime next year of the Bank eng and feels they need to do something that's not good for the currency.

And we are likely to be the worst performer in terms of global growth of certainly of the kind of the G ten countries on the on the average growth of one and there's nothing, there's nothing terribly encouraging in that. Frankly, well, we will continue to watch the headlines as they come out. Again, it's still Friday, so something might still happen. Before the

weekend or into next week. Kid, thank you so much for joining us this afternoon, London in time, Kitch you associated general now very happy to welcome Meshu, senior editor at the National Review and for Spoomberg opinion columnist. Mesh I want to ask you, obviously about the Scotus hearings this week, but first we have to have to mention the dueling town halls last night. I wonder if you're watching them in split screen and you know what your

lasting impressions were. Well, I preferred to go to the transcript rather than watch it um to to compress the time commitment. And I think we got a pretty good picture of both of these men and what they're like. The voters were able to assess, for example, whether the story of cognitive decline that President Trump has been telling about Joe Biden UH is accurate or whether it's overdrawn. And I think that people could get a good perspective

on that. And with Trump, we've all seen a lot of Trump philosophy years and he was the same as as usual. There was there and you know, and that includes the combativeness, it includes the conspiracy theories UM and UH, and and it includes the uh, the kind of uh rambling and disconnected sentences that we've come to expect, and frankly, we get a little bit from both of these candidates the whole Q and on stuff. Does he not know

what it is? Is he lying to the public when he says he doesn't know what it is, except that he knows they battled pedophilia and are very against it, as if anyone in the world isn't. Well, you know, at a certain point you have to say, given that this has come up so frequently, um, maybe it's time he learned something about it. You know. The the explanation that he gives is not an excuse. And when you, um, say you don't know something about it, you don't then

follow it up with praise, which is what he has done. Um. So you know, it's entirely possible that he is ignorant of it. But you know, I think at this point it's part of his job not to be All right, let's move to the course, because it's been a very very interesting week in terms of Scota's hearings, but also the idea that Democrats will want to maybe make changes to the Supreme Court if in fact it becomes more

plausible for the Democrats to do so. First of all, on the hearings, Judge Amy Coney Barrs is all butt in at this point, did you learn anything that you didn't already know about this candidate for the Supreme Court? Well, you know, these hearings are not designed to shed a ton of light on the judicial philosophy of the nominees. So uh so I can't say that I learned a

lot in that respect. Um, I did get a good picture of somebody who is extraordin nearly adept, who was who was pretty quick on her feet, uh and extremely knowledgeable about Supreme Court case law, doctrines and so forth. This is what we'd expected, um. But but she was able to hold her own him, Etcender Feinstein, after asking her some tough questions about the Affordable Care Act, for example,

pronounced herself impressed by Barrett's answers. Yes. And you have a great column out on this, Judge Barrett's best ally as Ruth Bader Ginsburg, And you point to the fact that not answering questions is a bipartisan tradition. But of course senators are always within their rights to try and change it, or try and you know, at least pressure the potential justice and see how they perform under pressure.

It is, you know, one of the last times you'll hear from them publicly speaking like that, except the special events and so on. Biden said last night that the public with no around election time what the Democrats plan is. If they do have a chance to impact the court strategy around the country, what do you imagine the Democrats will come up with? Is an injustices really something that the public will want? So I think Biden has twisted

himself and not a little bit on this question. So last night he said that voters deserved to have his answer to it before they voted before election day. But of course people are already voting, and Vice President Biden certainly knows this. Uh So there's no real good justification for waiting except to wait and see what the political

winds um deliver. I think that there's gonna be a lot of interest on the part of the left wing of the Democratic Party and expanding the Supreme Court and getting more reliable liberals on the bench if they're in a position to do that. That is, if Biden wins, and if the Democrats have the Senate UM so far that has been an unpopular position in the polls. There's a pretty long historical tradition of rejecting that kind of gift.

But Franklin Roosevelt failed at this in the nineteen thirties after an election where he won forty forty eight states and his party had three quarters of the votes in the House and the Senate actually more. Um So, it's historically been a pretty fringe idea in a way it's been it's been an extreme and unpopular one. Uh So, we'll see whether Biden really decides that he wants to lead off his first year in office, assuming he wins

with such an idea. Remess, I can't let you go without asking you a little bit about what you're making off some of the Senate races around the country. I mean, obviously we're watching the Lindsay Graham, you know, very closely that race. But also there was a very sort of odd and almost funny exchange between Mark Crk and Tommy duck Worth for the Illinois seat. What's standing out to you and what are you most keeping an eye on? Well,

I think that we're at a moment air. These Senate races have very little independence from the presidential race, and the way people vote for the president is likely to be the way they vote for the Senate as well. So I think that a lot of Republican Senate candidates in a lot of states are looking at how the president's doing and uh and getting pretty nervous right now. Yeah, And of course I mean that duck Worth Kirk thing coming up again sort of this cycle, because we're seeing

a lot of that around the country. And then finally, you know Ben sass comments about Trump and what they said about the GOP and the election outlook. Did did did that mean anything to you? Does it have any kind of wider implication or is it just the type of chatter that's happening, you know, and say Lincoln projects circles. Well, I am sure that Senator Staff was accurately relating his sentiments.

I think that he felt kind of buttoned up and unable to express those kinds of view when he was facing the prospect of a Republican primary in Nebraska and didn't want to spend pro Trump voters. That once he won that primary, I think he's felt more liberated to express his views. Remesh, thank you, throwing a lot of topics that you want to get all of your opinions and your intelligence as we really head to the last

couple of weeks in this cycle. It's it's a fascinating one and each time every four years there's always something new that really makes us glued to our media entrepreneurs with the National Review and of course at Bloomberg Opinion columnist, thank you for joining us on this Friday. Now another major story of the day, and for that return to George Ferguson of Bloomberg Intelligence. The Boeing Max has been judged safe to fly by Europe's aviation regulator. This is

a serious, serious decision. It's been in the wings, no pun intended for a long long time, but it does like it might be a bit of a strange time to give Boeing the go ahead when account really put Max is in the air. Anyway, George, come on in and talk to us about this. What are your thoughts on the timing of this good morning it Yes, so our thoughts are that we actually thought the European regulator would come in after the US regulator approved the airplane

to fly again. But look, I think it's all fine. I think it all of the information we're getting out of the f a A is that they're very happy with the process so far. There's a couple more there's a couple more parts of the process. The f a has two complete order to reauthorize the MAX to fly. But I think it's a it's a nice endorsement for the airplane that the Europeans feel it's safe enough to

fly in their airspace. It looks to us, like you know, by the end of the year, early next year, the MAX will be clear to fly in two of its most important markets, Europe and the US. And so I think if you're bowing, this is great news, and we're seeing it in the share place right now. Yeah, you have to wonder about orders though, and how much they'll come back given the environment that we're in with pandemic

and so on. George, we know that there were some some bumps along the way, if you like, and there were some setbacks, software setbacks and so on. Can we fully trust both regulators that they've seen everything, that they followed all the processes, and when we do finally hear from the f a A that the MAX is just

absolutely pristine and in great condition. I do think that the airplane has been poured over extensively, and so um, you know, I think there's no such thing as any airplane being pristine, and that may may concerned some of your some of your listeners, but look, I think it's as looked over as any airplane has been in modern history. And I think you know, Bowing has been addressing the problems. Again,

the regulators sound comfortable with it. Um. The airplane, I think had some challenge leunges with the MCAST system, which if you didn't follow procedures correctly, you know, led to the crash of the airplane. But I think the airplane still fundamentally is is a good airplane and these are indicators that they fixed that problem with the with the automated flight systems. Where will the max be flying if it is indeed in the air by the end of the year or early next year, who or what will

it be flying? And how will order is rebound? Yeah, so flying the airplane is gonna take a little bit of time here, right once you get the new requirements on flight training, which the f A has out for commentary right now, you know, once once that's approved, the airlines that fly the airplane no big operators are our Southwest. They're gonna need They've already said they're gonna need a couple of months to sort of get all their pilots

trained and flying the airplane again. Um. You know, I think we heard yesterday from the United the airplane is not even on the schedule through the end of the year, So it's going to be into next year before you really see it flown inside. You'll see it flown at again, United American Southwest, the big customers and Ryanair um orders. Yeah, it's going to be a really rough year for order. We're not even we're more worried about how much of the backlog goes away than we are how many new

orders come in the books. And some of the backlog has gone away because Boeing has been so long in fixing the problems of the Max. After you get past a year, adverse clauses set in on sales contracts and allows your customer to cancel the order. So we're more watching that. It was a really large order book for

the airplane, you know, six or seven years large. We think that's probably dwindled and with the airlines that probably want deferrals, probably you know, there's probably not many airlines that want airplanes next year. It's gonna be a challenging year to get deliveries out. George, Thank you so much. George always keeping us honest on airline news. That's George Ferguson of BI. Thanks for listening to Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts

or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Bonnie Quinn. I'm on Twitter at Bonnie Quinn, and I'm Paul Sweeney. I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio