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Katerina Simonetti, She's at Morgan Stanley Private Wealth Management. She's a private wealth advisor over there. Katerina, again, I'd love to hear kind of the conversations you're having with your clients as you can close out a pretty successful twenty twenty four and think about next year. What do you guys, how are you talking to your clients these days?
Well, Paulin and Caroline, thank you for having me on the show. This is a really important conversation because it's not lost on clients that we've had double digit returns for two years in a row, and it is only reasonable to expect that the returns in twenty five are
going to be somewhat subdued. So clients are concerned the questions that we're having about how to capture returns in the portfolios, how to maximize the income and the portfolios, and most importantly, risk management in the upcoming volatility, and to be fair, our expectations for the year are not dim. We think a lot of emphasis are on FED and inflation and how all the other factors are going to
play out. But when it comes to the practical things that we do before the year end, rebalancing the portfolio and achieving maximum portfolio diversification in stocks, bonds, real assets, and private investments is the absolute key.
So, Katerina, I mean again, a lot of folks are standpoint. You can you have a third year of performance in the equity markets and to the extent you're going to be a little bit more cautious. Well, you can look at the fixed income market. How do you think about the fixed income trade? Do I sit there in a two year treasury and get you four point three percent from the US government or door it take some credit risk.
If we are expecting then FED is not going to have quite as many rate cuts as originally expected. It's not necessarily the absolutely worst thing in the world for fixed income investors. Number one, we're going to get higher yields of cash for a little bit longer than expected. And two, if we don't think about fixed income as per se a trade but as a whold and as an asset that delivers that consistent income and risk management because on the risk adjusted basis going into twenty.
Five, we prefer bonds or stocks.
We think it's going to generate yield, but quality very much so within bonds as well as stocks is going to be the name of the game for.
Twenty five.
Volatility because there's so much well lack of clarity as it currently stands, Katerina, just take us through the thought process over at Morgan Stanley Private Wealth more broadly as to whether or not the FED will cut more than two times. What sort of realistic infrationary pressure will we get from the talked about tariffs that I yet to be imposed.
Caroline, where do I start?
Uncertainty about the Fed, uncertainty about inflation, uncertainty about the teriffs and immigration. As all these headlines are going to start coming out in early twenty five, all of this is going to play a role, and so our expectations for the early half of the year come with the expectation of the higher volatility, and last couple of weeks gave us a bit of a taste of what's to come. Now,
tell investors not to chase rallies. And this is the other side of this coin where we have to prepare and stay calm and make sure that we have high quality portfolios, focus on sectors that generate yield, Focus on the areas like financials, industrials, materials, and make sure that we take some profits of the table and avoid higher concentrations in the portfolios. We've had some fantastic performance, this is the time to take some games.
But the problem is you had fun state performance in twenty twenty three, and if you'd have that mindset around and in video or the Mac seven, then boy did you miss that rally of twenty twenty four videos up one hundred and eighty percent let's call it for the years. So how do you talk some of your clients out of that fomo feeling that a lot are going to be feeding all over again when it comes to countum an Ai.
Carolin, It's only natural to feel this way, and I think that that what we have to ask is the are the valuations and profit expectations that are on the table, as well as the fact that FED has a lot of pressure on them. You know, when it comes to inflation in terms of cuts, are we going to get as many cuts as expected.
That is the big question for us and for them.
So when investors are looking at their holdings, of course it is natural not to be missing out on the continued growth. So we don't advise selling out of the entire position, but healthy profit taking and diversification into the other areas where a level the growth of that level didn't occur yet and where the possibility of future growth are significantly more substantial than they are in technology in some of these areas that achieved remarkable growth in both twenty four and twenty three.
Ketterine, how do you talk to your clients about alternative investments? Something in private equity, private credit, hedge funds, because when I speak to rias, I'm really surprised that the high percentages they allocate to alternatives.
How do you guys more instantly think about it.
Well, in the time where investors are so concerned about the risk and politility and protecting the values of their portfolio, having the asset us that could hedge risk in the equity side of the equation, it's extremely valuable. Now it comes with the cost, and that cost is liquidity. So investors that are comfortable with giving up some of the liquidity in their portfolios. Are perfectly fine using the alternative investments because it has huge value with making sure that
we achieve consistent risk adjusted return. But with that, it's just the piece of the puzzle where fixed income delivers income, equities deliver growth, cash delivers liquidity, and alternative investments are extremely effective in risk management.
We're going to have some changes to the tax policy. It seems like we'll see how that plays out. Then that kind of goes to the asset class of municipal bonds. I'm a big fan of municipal bonds. A triple tax free treatment is I think a good and wonderful thing. How do you guys position municipals in a typical portfolio.
Well, taxes are.
A major concern and inflation is a concern as well. But when investors are looking at their portfolios and analyzing the after tax income and after tax performance that they're receiving, tax efficiency is something that is a part of every single conversation that we're having with clients, and this is where municipal bonds come into play.
Now, with municipal bonds.
You have to make sure that the tax equivalent rate of return that we're getting on muni bonds is actually as good or better that return that we can achieve in corporate fixed income, because there are some amazing buying opportunities.
On that side.
But investors certainly like having that tax free cash flow in their portfolios, especially in retirement.
Taxation clarity is something that perhaps the crypto world is potentially yearning for, girning for for twenty twenty five. How have you thought about crypto and that particular area of potential investment alternative investment for the twenty twenty four into twenty twenty five, Katrina.
Well, Caroline, when you think about the development of crypto world, where it turned from something that we don't mention or talk about into something that was, you know, the most exciting part of the portfolios than the most volatile part
of the portfolios. And now we're seeing more over a legitimization or the use of crypto in the normal portfolios, you know, with the availability of ETFs, with people feeling more comfortable investing in this type of investments, but they can't lose track of the fact that the volatility still remains
extremely high. So the positioning in the portfolio has to be extremely careful, and investors that are relying on the crypt for liquidity certainly has to have that in mind because the volatility in equity markets at high is high, but our expectations for volatility in the crypto world is significantly higher than that.
Meanwhile, though, going back to the equity markets, where there still govies of volatility, I'm interested in your overweights industrials, utilities, and software, and actually that software shift from hardware to software, from chips into a paneteer or to a software application and generative AI has been a theme we've been hearing, but talk a little bit more about the industrials and utilities. What drives that For twenty twenty five.
Kurln, we're looking for a defensive place. We're looking for companies that are not just delivering attractive earnings outlook, which is something that we see across the board and of course we'll be looking across the board for twenty five, but also that bring to the table attractive valuations. They didn't have that explosive growth that some of the sectors we're seeing. So that's where the industrials, that's where the materials,
that's where consumer stables come in. We're looking for qualities and also for companies that are in position to make money, to be profitable in twenty five.
All right, Katerina, thank you so much for joining us. Always appreciate getting some of your time and your thoughts on these markets. Category to Seminetti, you're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast.
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Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Coming up early for us from la Is John Gilson, who is one of the authors behind in today's Big Take, how Trump tariff threats are already roiling global trade. You go into this deep diet of individual companies, how they're already having to have a surge of shipments from Germany, whether it's wriestling wine or whether it's the latest maker of wires and technology from the US in California. How are they trying to front runs some of the tariffs that we're expecting, John Well.
Exactly, there's been a record number of containers running through the ports of la and Long Beach the biggest North American ports just in the last couple months. Because people are trying to get ahead of this, but at the same time they're balancing, like, we don't want to overorder in the case of there's a company that has EarPods that they supply, not Apple ones. But their concern is technology changes very fast. If we order too much ahead of time, we'll be stuck with all this inventory that
people won't want to buy. So they're trying to balance all these things. Get it in while prices are cheap, beat the tariffs. At the same time, don't overorder. There are also higher costs if you rush to get stuff in because free costs have gone up a lot.
So John, it's interesting, we don't even know what's going to get be subject to tariffs, how much any of that, But it appears that companies just aren't waiting, are they. They're trying to just get ahead of this anyway they can. I mean, it's just extraordinary.
Well, yeah, they're trying to figure out what to do. Because the other concern is people thought, well, let's have stuff imported via Mexico assembled in Mexico, and that way we could get around the sort of Chinese content.
Rules on tariffs.
But now recently Trump said, well, we want to impose tariffs on Mexico and Canada because we're concerned that they're letting, you know, bad guys and fentanyl into the US.
Look, well, we're looking at a market that is carneadis some significant setting pressure today or off by more than two percent, and then ask that one hundred. Is there a flavor of which industries are bracing themselves the most, Like I'm remporting all year on the chip sector and how they've had to be navigating the China US relationship. But you've already mentioned wine technology. This is so broad in its remit auto's whoever are we seeing the most anxiety build.
Well, I would say across the board.
I mean clothing is another one you mentioned or didn't mention, But yeah, electronics, clothing, just about anything that's made overseas, which is most of the consumer goods that we have in the US. Lawn furniture, I mean, it's not something that I go, oh my god, I won't be able to live without lawn furniture. But at the same time,
there are a lot of knock on effects. As Secretary Yellen was talking about it'll cost more ultimately to consumers, and we're not sure whether that's good for the economy or bad.
You've got a great graphics here, like it may take stories, folks, they're deeply sourced, deeply reported, and they've got great graphics, which makes it.
Just come alive. Tariff talk abounds companies.
You guys tracked how much companies talk about tariffs on our conference calls, and holy cow, itch spiked in November and December this year. So this is this is on the top of minds of corporate executives, isn't it.
That's right exactly.
I mean, we have ways of searching texts of calls all over the place and we use that as a tool. It's like, yes, CEOs say that's a big issue for them going into twenty twenty five.
And it's uncertain too.
I mean, that's part of the deal, is we don't know what's actually going to happen because Trump has talked a lot, but he's not president yet.
And that must be the frustration that ultimately a lot of these business leaders know that they're having to drive up costs, perhaps unnecessarily, but they've just got to make a call. They've got to decide whether they're going to front run something that's hypothetical in nature. Do we know how much is driving up costs?
Well, we don't know yet, I mean there and we don't know how much they're going to pass on. There are higher costs for shipping right now, and a lot of people are using air freight instead of using ships because they want to get it here earlier. There's stuff that if you order it early, you have to put it in a warehouse before you put it in stores, so that could be an extra cost too. And then we don't know what other kind of tariffs will be added on, so it's very hard to know how much
each unit is going to cost. How much the people who are processing or passing on those units are going to pass on to consumers too, because you don't want to raise your.
Prices too fast.
And then there are in the case of the German wine maker, maybe they're just going to export to Scandinavia instead of the US because I think I can make money in Scandinavia. They're not a major exporter of wine. Some of their competitors, though, they can't do without the US.
I mean, this is no joke here.
I mean, you have some research from Oxford Economics where I think they pulled executives.
What are the biggest worries you have over the next two years.
We're talking Eurozone crisis, China, Taiwan, I mean, big, big issues, the Middle East.
By far, the.
Biggest one is the global trade war. So this is on top of mind just about everybody out there, that's right.
Yeah, And as Secretary Yellen said in the previous segment, we don't know what kind of retaliation is going to happen. They're talking about using a very blunt instrument across the board, tariffs, and so people will retaliate, and yeah, people will stop paying. We all know consumers are very unhappy about inflation. Now, we don't know what effect hires tariffs are going to have on inflation, but generally it raises the cost of imported goods if you put tariffs on them.
All right, John Great Reporting John Gittilson, Bloomberg LA Bureau chief, one of the contributors to the Big Take story. Check out the Big Take stories on the terminal. They are fantastic reporting every single You can go to Bloomberg dot com slash Big Take find them online as well.
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Let's just dig into the geopolitical persuasion a little bit more and indeed what the outlook for some of these energy markets is going into twenty twenty five. Perfect personally that Ellen Wold is with US, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and author.
Of Saudi Inc.
The Arabian Kingdoms Pursuit of Profit and Power. I am so interested in your take of what the next administration means for the relationship with Saudi, with Israel and going forward. But just taking on where Natalia was bringing us the supply demand dynamics around oil and just how important is OPEK at this moment.
So I think OPEK is actually playing a fairly critical role right now because they're keeping a fair amount of oil off the market and they're really enabling the US to have a role for its oil space, for its oil market to grow. If, for example, OPEK were to decide, hey, all bets are off, we're going to just open the taps. Forget about all these cuts. We're just going to put all of our production capacity back on the market. They have the ability to tank prices. I think they don't
want to do that right now. But a lot in terms of the oil market hinges on whether OPEK is going to move forward with its very gradual plans to put more of that oil back on the market, or whether they're going to continue to push it off. So I think that they're still very very relevant, just not in quite the same way as they were, say in the nineteen seventies.
All right, Ellen, I have to fully disclose here. I am a big fan of the TV show Landman, so I now consider myself an expert.
On oil and gas and all that kind of stuff.
But talk to us about the US supply because that's really changed that dynamic in global oil and gas over the last ten years or so. Are those guys going to be drilling, baby drilling coming forward?
Yeah, that is a great question, and you're definitely pushing me to start watching this show in my free time, so thank you for that. So I think that this is not the same oil market is in twenty sixteen and twenty eighteen this is a different shale patch. Back then, it really was a drill, baby, drill situation because we
had lots of companies out there. It was kind of like the wild West in a little bit of a sense, and they just had to keep on drilling and drilling, even if they weren't, you know, breaking, even just because they needed to make payroll, they needed to get all that oil out there. They were being funded with the intent to just.
Drill, drill, drill. That time is over.
We're in a different, different oil market now, different different shale patch where we've got a lot of consolidation. We've got bigger, much bigger companies at the helm now, and they they're a lot better capitalized. They're much more focused
on not necessarily just growth, but on returning value to shareholders. Coincidentally, we happen to be producing at the highest levels ever right now, but companies are also using a lot better techniques, a lot more sophisticated techniques to find oil, to get more oil out of each well. And so I think, yes, we still do have a lot of oil to get out of there. We're still going to be producing at
fairly high levels. But that same mentality and the ability to kind of predict where we're going is not there now. It's really a different look now when it comes to
the Trump administration and drill baby drill. I think that we're going to see that much more in the offshore oil space because that's really an area that has suffered greatly under the Biden administration's regulatory restrictions, and so I think we're going to see a lot more optimism there because that's an area where things take a lot more capital to get going. You need a lot more time, you've got to.
Invest a lot more.
But at the same time, those wealth can last a lot longer than what we're seeing in say the Permian and those areas. So I think they're really looking forward to a Trump administration to help them get the leases they need, get the permits they need to start drilling. And I do think that is an area where we are going to see a more kind of drill baby drill outlook.
And the outlook under the next administration. Of relationships with Saudi Arabia, of relationships with Israel, and normalization with the our world more broadly, how are you looking at that and what it means for your markets that you are well.
I think that that's a really complicated area because I do think that the Trump administration is much more unabashed and its support for Israel, particularly in a military sense and in a diplomatic sense. So I think you're going to see a lot more very overt and very strong support for Israel. Does that necessarily mean that's going to put them at odds with the rest of the air world, I don't necessarily think so. I do think that they
definitely have a much more stronger stance on Iran. It is entirely possible that we could see them start to enforce this the oil sanctions on Iran more forcefully, and if that takes Irani and oil off the market, UH, that will actually.
Be good for Saudi Arabia.
That's actually what Saudi Arabia the UA would like, because you know, they can put more of their oil on the market or it will help prices go up. So I think that while there's definitely a tension in terms of the relationship between Trump and the Saudis, I think that the underlying aspects in terms of UH stability, in terms of trying to UH lessen Iran's funding of terrorist groups, I think that are all gonna bring. Maybe that that's what the Saudis would like to see, and that's what
the Trump administration wants to see. So while you know, they may not necessarily show that there are best buddies in terms of US support for Israel, I do think that there are a lot of aspects where they're going to see a lot of synergy.
Ellen.
If I'm a proponent of green energy, how concerned should I be about the incoming Trump administration about that process?
So I think it really depends what your approach to green energy is. I don't think that trump Is administration is looking to say roll back the entire IRA. I mean, this is an administration that really also has a vested interest, really wants to say to increase the domestic lithium and lithium battery supply chain in the United States. They may have a slightly different reason for wanting this. They consider it more of a national security concern than say, an
imperative to put more evs on the road. But this is an area where you know they definitely will have a lot of support there and I think that there are a lot of areas where they can work together. Now, if you're looking at, say offshore wind, I don't think you're going to see a whole lot of support from the Trump administration. But to be totally honest, the offshore wind industry in the United States has got a lot of headwinds, even you know, without President Trump kind of
putting the brakes on that. They've got issues in terms of the turbines that they're using, collapses in the Atlantic, problems with funding for projects, you know off of New York and New Jersey. The Trump administration is a convenient way to excuse perhaps a lack of interest and difficulty getting it going, But I wouldn't say it's necessarily the Trump administration's fault that offshore wind is having a really difficult and slow start here.
And then what about nucleia, Yes, that is.
An excellent question, and I think that that is something that the Trump administration could really make a mark on an energy if they choose to address this. Because I know you said on the previous segment about data centers and these big tech companies they want to use nuclear to power their data centers. They realize that, look, we've got to get something.
That's more reliable.
We can't use wind and solar for this. So it's either natural gas or nuclear or a combination, and that is an area that the Trump administration could really push things forward. We've got a lot of really interesting technology in terms of small modular reactors coming up, and this is an area where they could really push things forward and help bring more, safer, better, more affordable nuclear technology to the United States. We really haven't had a new
nuclear plant. It is incredibly difficult to build a.
New nuclear plant.
But nuclear is a stable, great base load source of energy that is actually incredibly safe, and so there's a lot of things that they could do to help push that along, bring that to fruition in safe ways that would really also help the environment and lower emissions.
All right, Ellen, thank you so much. We appreciate that.
Ellen Wald, Atlanta Council Senior Fellow and author of the book Saudi Inc. So one of our go to voices on energy.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecar Playing and broud Oto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
Let's go to one of the big, big businesses out there, particularly this time of the year, and that's the movie business. When you think about the movie business, the summer is the big part of the season. That's where a lot of the big movies are released, and that's where the box office is. But the second big driver is kind of this holiday season we're in right now. Joining us now is Daniel Larier, editorial director at The Box Office Company.
They provide data and analytics on the global film industry. Dan, thanks for joining us. How has the twenty twenty four box office been here in North America?
Oh, thanks for having me, Paul. It's been a recovery year.
I think coming into this here, we all expected a downturn because of those and writer strikes from twenty to twenty three, right, but we really saw a rally starting in June. So at the beginning of the year we expected maybe a ten percent slide. By now we're expecting to finish the year within five percent year over year, So big recovery to finish the year.
What has won out because of late it's been well, they've been in something for everyone.
Really.
You've had gladi ETD two, you've had Wicked, you've had the kids winning.
Out with Moana two as well. Where have been the sweet.
Spots Disney, It's that one word, and man, is it great to have them back. This is the first year since twenty nineteen that Disney returns to two billion dollars in domestic box office, and this is the first year really that we see them make the most out of that acquisition of twentieth Century Fox a couple of years back. If you remember, we didn't know what was going to happen with that. They have the Avatar movies, that's a guarantee.
But this year we saw new franchises revive like Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes and Alien Romulus to get back on the map. You see other divisions like Marvel with Deadpool and Wolverine, Walt Disney Studio's animation with Molanatu, and Pixar with Inside Out two having huge recoveries that they haven't seen yet since the pandemic.
So, Dan, you mentioned the writer strike, the act the actor straight strike.
I'm hearing that twenty twenty five and twenty twenty six are gonna be full production years and it's going to be really big for the movie business.
What's your expectation for the next year or two.
New benchmarks, especially in this post pandemic era. Right, so, we are expecting the best year in the post pandemic box office in the coming year in twenty twenty five. We're right now forecasting between nine point three and nine point seven billion dollars domestically around the nine point five billion, if you wanted to ask me for a sweet spot.
And that's really coming from our forecasting analyst of experts in this industry that are giving us their own insights as to where things are going in twenty five.
Let's talk a little bit about the narratives within the companies themselves, because, like you said, the box office was difficult, we're also seeing a restructuring that continues to be very difficult when you think about paramount how they're being bought at the moment, and really that's all about Hollywood and the box office. Where will we see M and A. Where will we see a refocusing coming from some of the big companies.
I think the key word here, Carolyn, for next year is spin offs, and we're seeing that with all the TV businesses of these legacy media companies. We see Warner Brothers, Discovery looking at how to spin off some of those cable properties. I know Comcast is looking at something similar. So in terms of how this impacts theatrical or the box office, I.
Don't see an obvious answer yet.
It's a market on the rise, granted one that took a big hit during the pandemic, but you compare that to where linear television is right now, cable television is right now, that's a market in the decline. So I think the first point of focus right now is going to be the coming cable apocalypse that is going to be hitting the media sector next year. Dan talk to
us about China as a market for US films. As recently as four or five years ago, it was the growth driver and you know, almost as big as the US Northern North American box office, and you could not get a franchise film green lit unless you knew it would play in China. Is that still the case or is this kind of cold war that's been growing over the least several years between the US and China.
Is that dampened market?
You know, I'm smiling, Paul, because ten years ago, in my first appearance here, you asked me that very question. And my answer then is it's crucial, it's vital, right. I think that's changed in the last ten years. It's changed significantly because it's a lot harder making sure that China is a consistent player when it comes to release dates.
Forget box office returns, just a simple release date. So it's not that I think it's more of a high potential play rather than something that you can depend on. And right now, where the market is, we need dependency.
What about the talent and the dependency that they're seeing ever more so on technology And look, many took to the strike action because of a concern about generative AI and one's likeness in the future.
But how is that shaping I think that's a great question, Carolyn, And that's exactly where we are with the AI question in Hollywood right now. It's a labor question. We're not to the point where it's a creative question yet. So as soon as we can figure out how the labor unions can embrace this or really live with it or coexist with it, even that's when we'll really be able to see how it looks like creatively.
I've said this before.
I think AI right now is a potential, but not a reality in Hollywood.
Where are we in North American box office versus pre pandemic level. It's called twenty nineteen because I think that was kind of the peak year and then obviously very very tough. You're in twenty twenty now trying to rebuild. Where are we When do you think we'll get back to that peak that box office of twenty nineteen.
So that twenty nineteen box office and really those years in the latter half of the twenty tens was a benchmark of eleven billion domestically, I don't think we'll get there until twenty twenty seven at the earliest. Like I said, I think next year twenty five we're looking around nine
point five billion. I think the ten billion benchmark is going to come in twenty six and in twenty seven, once we have a couple of years of a full movie slate from these studios, because as you mentioned earlier, Paul, it's really the first time since twenty nineteen where Hollywood has an uninterrupted year of production. Now that we have these movies coming out and hitting theaters, I think we have to wait till twenty seven to get to that pre pandemic level.
And are they all hitting theaters? How are we seeing Netflix in particular or some of the key streamers decide when to bring things out. I mean Amazon a bit a bit of a U turn on one of its key festive movies, and it looked like it worked to bring it out to the theaters.
Yeah, I think it's a case by case basis when we talk about the streamers. I don't expect Netflix to embrace theatrical any time soon. Apple is still hot and cold on what their strategy is. We'll see how that's tested with a release like Foe One, the Formula one racing drama coming out next summer.
But then you have someone like Amazon MGM, which.
Went forward with her release like Red One the theater, so that movie is going to make one hundred million dollars domestically, leading into a very profitable streaming run for that title. And they have some really really interesting smaller movies in theaters right now, a movie like The Fire Inside biopic on the boxer Claressa Shields and my favorite film of the year, Nickel Boyce, two really great dramas that are going to be part of that awards conversation.
It depends on the company on what that strategy is. But it's definitely still evolving.
Thirty seconds left, Dan, A billion dollar box office that's still out there, isn't it? You can still do baffo numbers, as the Variety magazine would say.
Absolutely. I think it's the stats.
Something like three of the seven highest grossing movies of all time came out after the pandemic. So on an individual title basis, if the movie's there, the public's going to follow, and they're going to follow to it in the theaters.
Daniel, So great catch out with you, Daniel Laurier. Of course, what was your favorite movie?
Again?
Which one did you say? We should watch?
Nickel boy S that's out now and expanding soon from Amazon MGM, great drama.
Highly recommend it.
Okay, Nickel voice, go watch it is, of course at the box office company dying all the data and analytics around the film industry. We appreciate him. Editorial direct to them.
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