Global business news twenty four hours a day at Bloomberg dot Com, the radio plus Global Laft and on your radio. This is a Bloomberg Business Flash from Bloomberg World Headquarters. I'm Catherine Coldary Wall Street. Joining the global rally for a second day, and the dollar is weakening their speculation that policymakers will move to prevent the UK's European secession
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yield of one point four six percent. And that sub Bloomberg Business Flash you're listening to Taking Stock with Kathleen Bloomberg Radio. We turn now to Turkey, to Istanbul, in particular, uh Turkey deploying anti terrorism squads at Istanbul's main international airport after three suspected Islama State suicide bombers killed forty one people this week, and this underscores, among other things, the country struggle to contain a spill over from serious
civil war. If you're watching all the news flow on your Bloomberg today, you're seeing stories of how houses hit Turkey's tourism U industry. You're seeing a story about the lyri rizing with other emerging markets because there's a bet now that they'll be stimulus to offset the damage. What does this mean for the country, for its president and its economy going forward? Very happy to welcome to the show now Gareth Jenkins, political security analyst who is joining
us from Istanbul, Gareth, welcome to the show. Thank you very much for having me. I had to start by asking you about the mood in Istanbul today. It's very depressed. I mean there were lots of concerns previously. We've already had two attacks of course, earlier this year from miss another one from the p k K. And I think the scale of what happened last night has really hits very hard. Well, it's uh, I mean hit. I think when I saw the headlines crossing, I think all of
us our heart goes out. You feel it. It could have been an airport anywhere. It feels like it's could have been one of your loved ones. In Turkey in particular, though, where there's so many cross currents, uh, so many dynamics politically, What what do people leak to do? Who do they blame? What do what? I think it's a certain extence. We've had so many of these it's been very difficult to
single at anybody to blame. And this attack is unusual in that previously mostly attacks be cool, they've been against foreigners by ISIS. In in Istanbul we've had attacked by the p k K that have been primarily directed as the security forces. But this just seemed to be at people, and I think that really is one of the reasons it's has had such an impact. And of course there
is um there's anger with the government. Government gets gets blamed because ultimately it's supposed to be responsible for security. And we've also had some people questioning the security at the airport itself. Um. But to a large extent, I think the mood is is still very much one of shock. The blame game really hasn't quite started yet that maybe we may see that over the next few days. Well, you know, you're a piece that would recommend everybody to
find online. Is one that you public just five days ago June four. Currently no indication as to when President Erdowa will leave power, but Turkey is now deep into the final and highly turbulent stage of his domination of the country's politics. Uh. Sometimes you think that people turn to a strong man when they're under attack. Does instead they'll yet another attack? We can has hold on power, which you argue he's doing everything he can to maintain. Yes, I think it does. I mean one of the one
of the big problems at the moments. Of course, we have two security sets. We have what one from the p k K, and we also have one from ISIS.
And I think most people outside ed On was in the circle though that they whatever when they think of the p k K. There there is a way forward there, and that's the return to talks, which would also not only probably persuade the p k K to an answer sea file, but would free up a lot of the resources as are needed in terms of intelligence um to focus more on isis which is a you cannot talk with isis M. You can talk with the p k
K and reduce the violence. But ed One's put himself in a position where he found there can be no returned the talks um where he's trying to change the constitution to get a presidential system which concentrates all power in his own hands, to demonstrate he can deliver solutions um, and he's avowed to crush the p k K. It's very difficult for him. It's now to step back and return to to talk without losing a lot of credibility amongst his hardcore supporters. Of course, of UH. The p
k K UH is the Kurdistan Workers Party. That's the Kurdish acronym for it. For those that maybe who are not following all of this quite so closely. So what so the next as Ardawan reaches for power, then internally and in terms of the various factions that are in Turkey, who is supporting him, who may be opposed in him, could we see some kind of I don't know, in election and uprising something that that moves against him in
a very dramatic way. We've seen a very unfortunate erosion of faith in the rule of law, and we're seeing a couple of measures at the moments preparing to go through Parliament that will tighten adman control of the judiciary. We've just had a motion gone through Parliament that's lifted the immunities of all of the current members of the
Parliament of five hundred and fifty deputies. Um. But we're expecting there to be core cases against the opposition, both the mainstreaming opposition of the Republican People's Party and also the pro Kurdish People's Democratic Party. And I think this call if these people are these opposition politicians that behind bars and we could get a quite a lot of protests. It's tempting to see the ruling system development part he
has being wholly united behind head on. They're certainly frightened of him, but there are people within the party who are very concerned about that. They're actually he's taking Turkey. And the hope is that at some time they stand up and and try to hold this seemingly accelerating slide into authoritarianism. But quite what that trigger would be to persuade um them to come out, we still don't know
now ether one President ear One has reached out. Just this week, he's ending a six year rift with Israel. He's unexpectedly moving to mentories with Russia. What is his motivation there? Does he perceive himself as weakened by some
of these events? Do does he see this as part of him increasing his hold on power to take a move with countries In the past he's been very much opposed to absolutely and with with the Israeli agreement, is he's actually gone back on what he said was this core demand, which was to remove the blockade the Gaza. I don't think the agreement with themselves has been negotiated for more than three years. It's not going to have
a big impact. What could have an impact is uh the meeting, what the telephone call they had today, with Vladimer prutin Um, particularly if that leads to um, you know, an improvement in the economic relationship, because Russians were the second largest source of tourism the Turkey UM since of Putin effectively prevented Russians coming, we've had a nine percent
decrease in the Russian tourists coming to the country. And of course tourism has been very badly hit by the by security concern so that may have an impact, But I think generally the reason he's moved now is because he's understood that Turkey is very dangerously isolated internationally and he needs to improve relations with with somebody, and with Russian particularly. There's the opportunity to do something which could give a boost to the tourism sector, which is huge.
It's a single largest source of Palm currency for Turkey and numbers so far down down. The expectation is that things go on once we get into the peak season, they're going down even even further and a lot of hotels, etcetera. Could could go into liquidation. So there was big economic benefits for him. M you know, that's Pluton, and in the way of a terrorist attack, people might find a little bit trivial to talk about the tourism industry, but as you point out, this is so important to Turkey.
Turkey also a very important destination for emerging market investors more broadly, Uh, is that another threat to Arnawan that the economy is not doing as well as it once was. How much is all of this affecting the growth of this very important destination for investors. Yes, I think it is. I mean it's one of the the I think the
largely ignored factors behind the grip that he's been. He's managed to put on on Turkish politics as a lot of people voted for him and voted for the ruling Justice and Development Party because of its economic record, But he doesn't seem to understand that he's now undermining it's
for one of the things investors care most about. I think they don't care how much unfortunately about democracy and rule of law, but they do care very much about stability um and they need to see at the moment that their investments are going to be to be secure if they put money into the country. Gareth quick final question ten seconds, will will air to one hold under power in a year? In two years and five years? My predictions has been until two thousand, two thousand nineteen
will be gone. Thank you so very much. Fascinating discussion of Turkey, where the country is heading and where President are to On is heading as well. Gareth Jenkins, thank you so much. Writer, independent political security analysts and a senior fellow with the Central Asia CAUCUSUS Institute and Silk Road Studies Program Joint Center. Joining us today from Istanbul. I'm Kathleen Hayes. This is taking Stock on Bloomberg Radio.