Gareth Jenkins on Turkey: U.S Relations Will Be Strained(Audio)

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on Bloomberg Radio. Turkish authority US have moved to widen their purge of perceived opponents, removing thousands of police officers from their posts. This is all part of a crackdown that follows the failed military coup attempt that was aimed at toppling the government of President Urign. Here to tell us more, Gareth Jenkins. He is a writer, independent political security analyst and a senior fellow with the Central Asia Caucuss Institute and the Silk Road Studies Program joint Center.

He joins us from Istanbul. Gareth, thank you very much for being with us. Begin by telling us where you were when the coup attempt took place. Well, on last Friday night, I was actually returning. I live on the Asian side of the city nights, returning from the European side, across one of the bridges over the Bosphorus Um in a little minibus when we noticed there was a unit of Turkish soldiers, mostly conscripts, shutting off the bridge. Did

you believe was happening? Well, normally the responsibility to security on the bridge belongs to the police. There occasionally, of course, a bomb threats in Istanbul, we have a bad security situation. Also occasionally people try to commit suicide by jumping off the bridge, and when that happened, it's always the police are responsible for diverting traffic. So as soon as I

saw the military uniforms and this was regular army. I knew something was very strange was going on, but it wasn't until then I got on my telephone and I spoke to people in Anchor were being told that, you know, jets had been flying low over the parliament to understand

understood that this was actually a coup attempt. Now the Interior Ministry says that it is fired nearly nine thousand police officers, and this follows the arrest of more than six thousand military personnel as well as generals and admirals. They also suspended nearly three thousand judges over the weekend. Who are these people? What did they want to accomplish? I think the honest answers of that. These people in

the innocence of charges. I mean the latest figure that's going around the Turkish media that a hundred generals and admirals have been taken into custody. There's only three hundred in the whole armed forces. I mean, to put it bluntly, if this number, if one third of the generals and adamals have been involved in the coup plot, it probably would have succeeded um. In the early hours after that,

the the attempted coup. The number of people who have been taken into custody was only around about two thousands, and those are the people who've gone taken up the streets that the military units should include a lot of conscripts like the ones I saw on the bridge. These are young boys who didn't know what they were doing um and thought they were just as part of some kind of military exercise. So the number of people actually took to the streets is um of the kind of

coup plot is only a few hundred. And yet we've seen with President Alan since this happened, and it was a genuine a champ, there's no question about that, but he's used as an excuse basically to try to destroy um all of the people he suspects of not being sufficiently loyal to him personally in the armed forces and the judiciary. The an answment about two thousand, nine hundred and fifty judges and prosecutors came within hours of the coup being sucressly rolled up. We still haven't seen any

evidence whatsoever for their involvement in the coup. Well Secretary of Stage Arm Kerry in Brussels today he urged Turkey to show restraint as much as Turkey is a member of NATO. Do you think that Turkey it takes any of these comments seriously? The evidence at the moment suggests so much not. Um. No, we were seeing these purges increasing and widening. We've also had more than a dozen news sites closed down in the last couple of days. Um, So it doesn't These warnings don't seem to be making

any difference whatsoever. Do you have any insight into who the coup plotters are and what did they really want to accomplish in policy terms? Um? What's coming out of the government of these are reported to be the followers of the Islamic preacher of Fetula Gulen has been living in exile and Pennsylvania's that they have yet to produce any proof linking Glenn or any of his followers to

what actually happened. When you look at the profile of the coup plot as they took over the tr tr T, the States run television station and released the declaration, the name that they gave themselves and the content of that declaration much more consistent with a very small number of hardline secular Turkish nationalists, members of the Officer Corps then they are with the followers of the Tula Gulen. But

at the moment we don't really know that. I should the size that the government, even though it's accusing Glenn, and they have these some ministers who have said directly because Glenn's in the States, actually America was behind the coup. They haven't yet produced one shred of evidence to support these clamps. And they've also tried to initiate extradition proceedings. Isn't that correct. They said they're going to. They haven't officially started it yet, but they said they're going to.

And John Kerry, you know, I said, if they're going to do this, they need to produce some proof that Glen has been behind it. Now, the scale of the purges, especially among these security forces. How is the public reacted to this news? I think with a lot of shock. I mean it was it was very shocking experience to go through anyway, until five o'clock in the morning, for example, I had F sixteen flying very low over my apartment

and with the sonic booms shaking the building. And I think a lot of the Turkish population, like me, you know, we haven't really slept very much. We're still stunned that this happened at all, and then to see the scale of the retaliation of these purges being implemented by aired Land. Whereas I said, I think anybody knows that if a hundred and three generals and admirals have been involved, this

coup would have succeeded. This is not possible. But around about a thousand, one thousand, five hundred people on the streets, including conscripts who didn't know what they were doing. And then to say this was part of a massive coup plot involving one third of the high command of the armed forces. So I think it's clear to everybody that something very strange is going on, and what the government

says it's doing is not actually what's taking place. What is the backdrop for those interested in the health or the struggle of the Turkish economy currently, I think the main as I'm talking to you, as some of the airline supporters are going down to the street behind, we've also had a lot of these taking to the streets in in the last couple of days, and um, this is going to have a direct impact, I think, first of all, on on tourism. Tourism has already been hard

hit by the bombings. We've had a very strong security concerns. Um the next one I think is going to be the Turkey looks at the moment like, uh, it's a very unstable country, perhaps even on the verge of becoming a failed state. That's the perception. I'm not saying that's how it is, so of course we're going to get

investors becoming very cautious. The stock market in Istanbul took a big hit today, I think it was down nearly eight percent, and Turkey is very heavily dependent on foreign financing, so I think as your companies, they'll find it very difficult to get new loans at the moment from abroad, and as they roll over existing loans, I think that the risk premium is probably going to be quite high.

We're speaking with Gareth Jenkins. He is a writer, independent political security analyst and also a senior Fellow with the Central Asia Asia Caucuses Institute in Silk Road Studies Program joint ENTERM. Gareth, the ongoing efforts to fight ISIS by using American air bases in Turkey. Is that effort going to be compromised because of the reaction to the coup attempted coup. Rather, I think that generally Turkish security is going to be compromised by all of these purges, I

mean as well as ISIS. Of course, Turkey is engaged in a war with the Kurdistan Workers Party the p k K. We've got a huge amount of confusion at the moment in the security apparatus, which includes intelligence, which is essential to of course to try to intercept ISIS. We saw on immediately out of the coup that the main base in the southeast Turkey, Angelic, which the US is using for the campaign against ISIS lexicity there was cut, so the US had to suspend its air campaign for time.

And it looks like we're going to have some very serious tensions but focle tensions between Washington and Anchor over aired once assistance on the extradition of Gulen, which is going to make it very difficult to have the cooperation, particularly at a time when the US use of a Turkish air space is of those Turkish air base is so critical to its campaign against sciences. And just quickly Garetha. When the President again arrived in in Istanbul, it was Istanbul,

not the capital Anchora. What does that tell us there were concerns that there were some rebel F sixteen in the air, and there was also a lot of concerns in about the situation in Anchor because the the high command of the of the military had been taken hostage by the coup plotters, and as far as I know, I haven't seen ed and then stayed in Example for several days rather than trying to go to the Anchor.

Thank you very much for spending time with us. Gareth Jenkins is a writer, independent political security analyst and also a Senior Fellow with the Central Asia Caucuses Institute and Silk Roads Study Program. You're listening to taking Stock. I'm Pim Fox and this is Bloomberg. H