Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside my co host Matt Miller.
Every business day we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along with essential market moven news.
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We've got a good block of time here and we're gonna need it.
Daniel D.
Martino Booth joins us here on our Bloomberg Interactive Broker's studio.
You know her, you know her work.
CEO and chief strategists at QI Research. Daniel, thanks so much for joining us here, Boyd. A lot of economic data coming out over the last several days. I don't know, the economy seems pretty darn strong to me. I'm not sure if the recession talk is off the table. What does our Federal Reserve do?
Look at some of the eco data we've seen over the last several days.
Well, you have to bear in mind, I'm of the mind that the Federal Reserve wants a reason to keep raising rates. Okay, and we follow one metric at QI Research the most closely because it's got the least noise in it, so not statistically not seasonally adjusted continuing claims.
Okay, So I'm gonna make this really simple.
Last September, there were zero states in the United States of America that had rising year over year continuing claimants. So the number of individuals in zero states in terms of rising beneficiaries. Okay, last September, forty six states as of this morning's data have rising continuing claimants. That's ninety ninety four percent of the population.
Wow, Okay, so what's that tell you that?
And it's been gradual, by the way, this is not like from September and a light flipped on in July. It's a very gradual move. And it tells me that even though the data is not fast moving, that seasonality is really giving a lot of trouble to a lot of these other data sets. And it just tells you that there's been a steady, a steady degradation in the US economy viewed through the purest prism of people continuing
to claim jobless benefits. Not initial, they're not they're not applying, they're they're collecting.
What is eighty I don't know what to do with ad you.
Know, you know, what do you do with ADP?
I tell you what with ADP?
You go, Look, we've had about four hundred and we've we've had about three hundred and forty eight thousand last six months NFP non farm payrolls YEP ADPs three hundred and sixty three last six months. Okay, fine, it's caught up. Moving on some of that. Some of the aberrations in.
The data are bizarre.
Leisure in hospitality, mining. Did we discover copper in America?
Mining?
Because that was a huge pop in mining. So and we've seen the Baylor, We've seen the Baker, Riggs, Hughes, rigcount I can't speak this one. I've had too much coffee. We've seen rig counts come down. Okay, So there's no reason to think that there's a whole bunch of shale formation that's pulling people into the energy patch.
So you think the economy is weaker than some of the underlying some of the headline data is showing.
I think the economy is weaker if you look on a grant.
When I give the Fed some reasons that just to pause if not, I.
Don't think the Fed wants to pause Okay, I think the Fed is looking for reasons to keep going. I think if you pay attention to how they will not discuss the balance sheet. We're not talking about quantitative tightening. It's like Voldemort. They won't talk about it. But they can't have quantitative tightening. They can't continue to shrink the balance sheet. If a discussion is even entered into about easing where rates are they have to keep rights high to keep shrinking the balance sheet.
So we're getting all of this labor data ahead of tomorrow's important jobs report, and it's interesting. I'm looking at Ecogo and the terminal and it looks like the unemployment rate it's actually going to tick down from three point seven percent through three point six percent based on analysts that we're pulling in the terminal. You look at the when it comes to non farm payrolls about two hundred
and twenty five thousand. What is your take on what we could see tomorrow and obviously how that could potentially relate to how US stocks are moving on the back of this type of data that clearly not even just the stuf Bock market, but looking what's happening with a two year and the.
Two year really is where it is all at at this point, right, you know, I think I can't tell you what NFP is going to do tomorrow. I had a friend of Mit, Peter Sheher, he's a good friend of Bloomberg's, you know, he made the comment, what are the statistically speaking, what are the odds that fourteen months in a row all the economists missed the estimate?
And what are the odds?
I mean, the bls will tell you that forty two percent of the jobs created in the last forty two months are against a backdrop of the fastest bankruptcy cycle since two thousand and nine. So how do we have a birth death adjustment that adds forty two percent net
net of all non farm payroll jobs. Forty two percent is not a small number over the last twelve months in the aggregate, assuming that this is all berths, when you can pull up BCY, go on the terminal and see the biggest number since two thousand and nine.
So when you see the two year at a sixteen year high, what do you think the bond market it is telling us.
It's telling you that Fed's going to keep raising rates come what may.
So we've got ninety percent priced in for the next meeting, they go again after that, you think it's September.
I think it really becomes data dependent at that point, unless there's going to be an investigation launched to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, because they're already questioning the inflation data. That's a matter of public knowledge. So I mean, barring that, you don't get to forty six states with rising continuing claimants without somebody starting to notice that there's a problem in the country.
So what is the I mean, what is your overall take of this economy that there is in fact more weakness than the I guess the headline data would show.
But yet they're still going to rate raise rates.
It's the butt Yet remember the employee Retention credit they advertise all the time. It just pumped twenty eight point eight billion dollars into the US economy in the month of June alone. It's been about twenty billion dollars a month now for about eighteen months. There's a massive form of COVID fiscal stimulus that continues to make its way into this economy. You see it in international travel. But his tourist and slack came out in his morning note
this morning and said the US consumer slowing. I think it pained him to say that, But if you look beyond the recipients of this employee retention credit, kind of the wealthiest, the highest income earners, you're seeing decided signs of slowing in consumption.
So then with this jobs report tomorrow, we have CPI on July twelfth, so next week, and then we'll have the FED meeting on July twenty fifth and twenty six, So those are the last major data points before that. Is that enough for them to decide to potentially hike Oh?
I think it is.
I really do.
Again.
He's focused on an inflation metric of his own design, the core CPI net of shelter, and it is a slow moving animal. We've gone back and looked at it historically, prior to the pandemic, it was usually running at about two to three percent, but two percent was a rarity, that isolated metric that J. Powell has conceived out of thin air. So in that he's looking at that, I
think that it's very conceivable. We're you know, O Mayr Sharif is saying, you know, look for used cars prices to come down, you know, look for shelter to continue falling. Look for that next CPI print to be very bond market friendly unless Ja Powel's just going to look through it as you go forty eight hours into blackout right before the next for.
MC, what are one of the many reasons we're like speaking to you is you rip out some data points that quite frankly, I've never heard of.
What are some of the data points that you and your team are kind of looking at here to get a sense that maybe aren't on eco go.
So we actually.
Follow weekly data from light Cast. They started tracking the data as of January twenty twenty to get a benchmark for which types of job openings there are in the nation, so jobs with minimal education required, I mean they needed a new scale in order to track how many job openings there were for lee, your hospitality, bus boys, you
name it. That's recently through the week of June twenty fourth come down to zero, so there are effectively no job opening Using a benchmark of January of twenty twenty, I follow trueflation very closely truflation. We actually were able to get their full data set back to twenty twelve. We ran a correlation analysis with the headline CPI last Friday, ninety seven percent since twenty twelve. The correlation where it's trueflation today two point two percent. Okay, it's thirty million
real time prices. It's a daily inflation print, but a ninety seven percent correlation since twenty twelve. With headline CPI tells you exactly where inflation is headed.
So inflation's headed lower, much lower. And isn't that good news for Jpal? And that's what he wants to see.
Ran, It's not good news for that Jpal That Japal wants to continue shrinking that balance sheet, oh Man, and he wants a reason to continue shrinking that balance sheet. So he's going to focus on job openings remaining high, even though work out of the Dallas Fed shows that ninety percent of those job openings are written for the specific purpose of poaching your closest competitors employees so you
don't have to spend the money training them. The other ten percent actually reflect organic demand in the economy for new job openings. That's being reflected in indeed dot com as well. You're seeing in d dot com job postings have come down tremendously over the last twelve months. That's another big one that we follow. And again it's a weekly data set and they're speaking to thousands and thousands
of companies across the country. That's what you want. You want people who are speaking to people on the ground.
And so even though we see the Fed's preferred gauge PCE moving in the right direction, to you, that's still not enough when you're looking at what's happening with the strength on the labor's side.
And I'm going to quote Powell here, until the job is done, yep, until we get to two percent.
And two percent, what is the two percent number? That is the core x.
He's looking for core PCE to be two percent. That is typically the gauge that you're talking about internally.
Okay, all right, and we're not there yet.
No, we got no excluding food and energy.
But he's going to keep you also, like to house weeds, we get data out today at just after four o'clock. You're going to see a big chunk of quantitative tightening when that data hits late after the bill today.
All right, Danielle Dee Martine Booth, thank you so much for joining us. He know, Danielle de Martino Booth, she is the CEO, and she is the chief.
Strategist at QI Research.
She's also did a stint at the Dallas Federal Reserve, so you know about the Dallas Federal Reserve and how the central bankers think across the board. So I always appreciate getting some of Danielle's thoughts here.
You're listening to the Team Ken's live program Bloomberg Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business App, or listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts.
To our next guest, Michael Green, portfolio manager in chief Strategists at Simplify Asset Management. Michael, thank you for joining us. Before we get more into what you're going to talk about, as far as what you like about sectors in the S and P five hundred, I have to get your take as far as these massive moves in the bond market, especially with the two year treasury trading round its highest level in about sixteen years.
Well, I have to confess that I actually see the current level of the two year as being remarkably attractive. But I have been wrong in thinking that for a while now. So you know my general belief is that the economy is slowing. The inflation problem is for seeing in the ism services today is largely one that's in very mirror, and the risk that we're actually creating and through interest rate policy is the higher level of interest rates themselves are actually now the key risk.
This is exactly what we saw with the banking system.
Earlier in here. I think it's working its way.
Through the corporate sector where we're seeing a dramatic rise in bankruptcies.
The odd thing for me is simply that it's not reflected in spreads.
It doesn't seem to be reflected in.
Any way in the federal reserves calculations, and candidly, when we look at the job.
Data today, certainly coming from the ADP, I have to confess that I'm pot off sides in terms of that strength.
I cannot reconcile the data.
If I look.
At the numbers for twenty twenty three on a non seasonally adjusted basis and compare them to the data from twenty twenty two, they're lower.
In every category. So oddly we.
Have this seasonal adjustment factor that again is raising its head and just making me really question whether the data that we're receiving is accurate.
So I guess let's let's look at it the economy from a different way.
Earnings, corporate earnings.
I'm looking at the you know, the earnings for the S and P five hundred consensus of analysts about two hundred and twenty two dollars per share for this year. How much risk, if any, do you see in that earnings number for corporate America.
Well, I think that there's a remarkable disconnect between the expectations data and the actual data that we're experiencing in the gap form, right, so they generally accepted accounting principles earnings for the S and P or down one seventy nine. That's off of a level of about two zho nine from last year. It shows no dynamic that would suggests that the rebound that analysts are forecasting is in play.
Much of what I would argue we're seeing is basically.
An attempt to ignore the one time costs associated with either unemployment or layoffs.
And in many ways, again, it just feels like data is.
Being created to match a narrative of rising prices with the reality of rising prices and stock markets, versus what we're actually seeing empirically in the.
Economy, Michael, the S and P five hundreds trading around, it's the lowest level in about a week. Something I was curious about when we're looking at some of this stronger than expected labor data, is this potentially a reason for certain stock investors to sell after what was a very strong first half.
Well, I think that there is very much a focus, correctly on what the FED is going to do, and so we're.
Clearly seeing, as you let into the.
Discussion here, indications that interest rates are moving higher. That Lori Logan came out today and said she expects additional interest rates going forward. I think, broadly speaking that that is really what's powering the market as of this immediate sell office, compared to kicking gains or anything else.
You've seen a fairly significant a balance of.
Disconnect between the S and P five hundred, which is obviously market cap weighted and dominated by the large market cap names, and what we've seen in said the Russell two thousand, which is not up nearly as much on a year today basis, and in fact the equal weighted Russell two.
Thousand is barely up for the year.
So this has been an environment in which the vast majority of stocks have been relatively weak, even as a few MEGGA cap names, Apple, Microsoft, and Video et cetera have been very strong.
In my view that that would represent mostly.
A you know, flow store, effectively money going into AI and technology space driving performance as compared to any indication of real economics display.
Mike, I'm sensing a distinct tone of cautiousness in your view of the markets and the economy. How are you allocating your portfolio these days? Stocks, bonds, what sectors, that type of thing.
Yeah, I know, as I indicated, I absolutely have been caught in the wrong positioning on this last move. I genuinely look at the two year bond at five plus right now and say, I can't believe that we're being given this opportunity in an environment in which it seems very clear that at least the economy has slowed dramatically. Whether it continues to slow it is really the question, and I see few opportunities for continued growth and expansion.
Today's ADP is obviously a wrinkle in that.
But you know, again, I just think.
The data that we will receive from ADP today is wrong. Can't fully explain it, but that's what it appears to be.
Where the non.
Seasonally adjusted data is showing a significant divergence from the seasonally adjusted data. That's true for the claims data, that's true for the unemployment data, that's true for.
The ADP data.
Something that struck me just looking at the industries within the S and P five hundred, more of those cyclically related corners of the market are leading to clients when you're looking at energy, also materials, technology down a little bit under one percent. Also the NAZAQ one hundred down
more than one percent. But when you think about the correlation between bonds and what's happening when it comes to technology stocks in particular or growth shares, would you expect them to be more pressured given what we're seeing in the bond market.
So I'm not a.
Huge believer in this idea that growth stocks or large cap growth stocks in particular have a quote unquote high duration, in other words, a high degree of sensitivity and interest rates. I think we've obviously seen that, you know, with the strength of the Apples and the Microsoft's on a here to day basis, where despite the fact that we have
much higher interest rates, they continue to push higher. If anything, I think that there's an explanation that has much more to do a kind of portfolio allocation dynamics than any sort of fundamentals around interest rates and valuation.
Again, you know, I.
Would just lean towards the direction that what we're worried.
About at this point is the FED continuing to be overly aggressive with the hikes that are already in the system, not in any way reflected in the underlying data that we're receiving. Yet, as that moves forward, if the FED continues to hike for pauses in its response, that creates conditions under which.
A slowdown could actually.
End up being much more severe than it's currently being priced in or versus expectation, and that unfortunately continues to be my rising rates case. If the FED is simply behind the curve in the opposite direction again, ism prices paid data would suggest that the inflation story as well behind us.
We see this in Europe with the CPI the producer price indexes turn negative.
We're just seeing data that they suggest that the inflation story is no longer the operative dynamic.
Doesn't necessarily mean that that's right, though, all right, So.
Real quick there, Mike, what do you think we're going to hear from our feder Reserve at the next meeting and maybe even the meeting after that.
Well, I think it's hard to argue with the market, right, So, when the market suggests that they are more than eighty five percent probability of going, and historically it's been about seventy percent, it's been very rare for the Fed not to take advantage of that. I would expect that they'll ultimately hike, and that they'll indicate, as the data suggests
certainly today, that the economy continues to represent strength. I don't really think that they're focused on the inflation story as much as they are focused on or the direction of inflation story, which is clearly downwards, as much as they are focused on the idea we've got to get right. That is going to be the real question is, you know, do they continue to hip until we get to two percent?
Which right, just that they're going to be way behind the curve opposite direction. All right.
Michael Green, portfolio manager in chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management, thank you so much for joining us and getting your purview here.
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Let's get right to our next guest at Mona Mahadgen, senior investment strategists at Edward Jones. Mon A crazy, crazy day in the markets here. I love to get your sense of kind of what the economic data is telling you, and what do you think it's telling the Federal Reserve.
Yeah, great points there, and look, I think there was some really market moving data this morning that we think highlighted a few trends. First of all, the services part of the economy continues to remain remarkably resilient. We saw that not only with the ADP jobs report, where we were up four hundred and ninety seven thousand jobs when we expected just two hundred and twenty five thousand, but really what drove that was the services sectors, including areas
like leisure and hospitality. We also got the Ism services data this morning, which continued to show an upward trend rather than what many had expected to be a little bit more moderation. Now. On the positive side, both the ADP and the ISM services data did show some cooling in inflation. ADP data wage gains came in at six point four percent, still elevated, but following a trend lower over the last several months, and similarly, the ISM prices
paid component came in below expectations. And so hopefully the message is that, yes, the economy has remained resilient, but the inflation data continues to show of moderation. Now. Of course, from a FED perspective, I think this gives them another green light to move forward in July at least, and we heard a little bit of dissent and debate when
we got the minutes yesterday. I think this certainly kind of adds to the case that they could do one, perhaps two more rate hikes ahead, but they are closer to a pause than they have been in recent history now. I think the other big part of the markets today, of course, has been what's happening with yields, and the upward moving yields close to now highs for the year does put some downward pressure on equity markets, particularly those higher valuation parts of the market as well.
And we've heard from FED chair Pale as well as other members of the Central Bank and were referring to this as far as at least two more rate increases this year. If we do end up seeing another one at the end of this month, what would need to happen with the data between now and then when we have the Federal reserves following meeting in September, after the July meeting for them to end up maybe potentially having two consecutive rate increases.
Yeah, it's a good point.
And look, we do get a lot of data between now and September, and of course this month alone, we'll get an additional set of CPI and PPI data next week, will of course start earning season towards the end of July, and we'll have that July rate hike or rate decision at the end of July, So the Fed and the
markets will have to digest quite a bit. Our view is that over time we will continue to see inflation moderate and so perhaps the one rate hike that the markets are pricing in could be a final rate hike for the Fed.
But if the.
Economy does continue at this pace, especially in the services sectors, that could keep services inflation elevated. Keep in mind, the FED has broken down inflation into three core buckets, which are goods inflation, which have shown signs of rolling, over housing shelter inflation, which we do think over time will see cooling. That there's a lag there, and real time data is showing some cooling and we think that shows
up over time. But it's really that third bucket, which they categorize as non housing services inflation, that has yet to show meaningful signs of moderation. So they'll be watching that closely. And I think if that continues to show signs at least of stabilizing moving lower, we'll have one rate hike ahead of us. If not that, the second one is on the table.
So then, as a strategist, what is your outlook for the second half of the year after we had such a strong first six months?
Yeah, absolutely, Look, it was a stellar first half of the year with the SMP up over fourteen percent. You know, keep in mind, there have been some positives and reasons for optimism. The economic data is coming out ahead of expectations. Inflation as we noted is showing signs of moderation and the FED maybe towards the end of its rate hiking cycle. But we'd be cautious to extrapolate that strong move higher in the first half to a straight line up in
the second half of the year. Now, history does tell us when you are up over ten percent the first half, it bodes well for the second half. In our view, we do think bouts of volatility maybe likely, especially if
the economy starts to show signs of cooling. But will we get another bear market or meaningful downturn that we see is unlikely at this point, and in fact, we think those bouts of volatility could be used as opportunities, especially as investors look towards twenty twenty four, where you could get a meaningful bounce back in earnings, better inflation, and have FED that not only is pausing, but they've told us they might start thinking about pivoting lower as well.
So really want to start positioning for what we think could be a broader based market rally and participation towards the back half of the year, and both in equities and in bond markets as well.
So do I think about small MidCap stocks Mona. They've historically lagged some of the bigger cap names, but if this thing's going to broaden that a little bit, maybe small and midcaps.
Yeah, it's a good point. And look, small caps have meaningful lagged in the first half of the year, so we certainly think there is room for catchup now. When we look historically, small caps tend to do well when the economy is re emerging from any sort of softness or downturn. They tend to lead on the way up.
And so when we think about what we.
Call a recovery basket, that could certainly include areas like small cap stocks, like cyclicals, and we're starting to see some strength in industrials, materials, perhaps even financials in that basket.
International equities tend to do well in that environment. Those we think can compliment what we're seeing right now, because we do think the story behind AI and growth sectors does have a long term secular tailwind behind it, although a lot of it has been priced very quickly upfront as well, So we think a complement of both the growth and the more cyclical parts of the market will work better As we head towards twenty twenty four.
We only have about forty five seconds left. What's the top question that you hear from clients?
Yeah, you know, I think it's still the big one.
Around recession, we tend to hear a lot more, especially now that the Fed is continuing to raise rates. And we do think that what we're seeing now is a potential for cooling in the economy, but perhaps not your typical two back to back quarters of negative GDP growth. We think a softness to below trend growth is likely though, sometime in the second half of the year.
All right, Mona, thank you so much for joining us. We really appreciate getting some of your time. Mona ma Hodgen. She's a senior investment strategist at Edward Jones.
You're listening to the team Ken's are Live program Bloomberg Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business App, or listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts.
Threads is a thing. I'm there for what it's worth starting. Let's take a little tech round table here. Let's bring in Deep Seing. He covers the tech for Bloomberg Intelligence and Ed Ludlow. After a very difficult zoom situation this morning. He is our technology guy out in San Francisco, joints US as well, so we got it all.
Covered for you. Mandie. Let's start with you here in our studio here.
What is Metal looking to do here? Is this going to be a business for them? Is this a real competitor for Twitter? To just give us the business case.
The business case is they want to add that dimension of real time public conversations that are going on related to politics, related to breaking news, and that weren't happening on Instagram. Probably they were happening on Core Blue app. But they've been losing engagement, so it's an engagement play for them to keep users on their family of apps, and they've done a great job of adding reels content. This is another dimension. And look, they don't need to
focus on monetization right now. If they're able to get that engagement in terms of getting the core creators from Twitter to threads, that'll be a big win for them.
And is this likely to be a big player here or what kind of hurdles are ahead for it?
Well, the hurdles is, you know, the interest graph and the followers that Twitter has over the course of their last fifteen twenty years. You know, people have accumulated their followers and they like to see a certain curated feed when it comes to the home screen. Well, right now, when you go to Threads, they have an AI generated feed and there are a lot of brands and I've tried to you know, viewed a lot of them. I mean,
that's not the experience you want to have. And that's where scale and network effects is what drives social media engagement and early movers have always had an advantage. What TikTok did was great in terms of leveraging AI to come up with great recommendations. That is the playbook here for Meta is to use their user graph as well as AI to drive the curated content feed.
All right, Ed, When I think of cutting edge technology, I think of Ed Ludlow.
I think Silicon Valley is Silicon Valley out there in San Francisco. Ed, what's the buzz if anything out there in the valley about what our good friends at Facebook are trying to do here?
Yeah, and the adoption has been really interesting to track. I was signed up to Threads as us the number one hundred and thirty, two thousand and nine. Wow. So I made it in in the initial batch. I mean it's Bloomberg's tech editor Sarah Fryer was like number two thousand. You know, overnight she's a player, and overnight we hit the ten million mark. And my understanding is that we're closer now to thirty million users on the platform. But
I find Mandya's commentary really interesting. There are clearly ux differences right between what you get on the threads platform what you get on Twitter. It's very simplified right now. There are a few, you know, there's no sort of
ad stream on it. The biggest piece of use for me in the last twenty four hours was a post by Zuckerberg basically suggesting that a billion users is possible, and you know, to jump from thirty million to a billion, you know, I think a number of SALSIH analysts this morning kind of see difficulty in getting to that scale.
But think about it this way, Facebook, WhatsApp, Instagram, if Meta onboarded just one out of every ten users on its existing platforms, it would already eclipse what Twitter's monthly or installed active user bases. So you can kind of see them eclipsing Twitter a billion hard to.
See men deep something I'm curious about is, especially when you think of Meta and the cost cutting efforts that it has clearly gone through, and it stocks up more than two hundred percent since early November, how much could this potentially either support that stock price or is it just too early to be seen when you're looking at cell side.
Well, so, in terms of incremental revenue, I think, look, this is not going to move the stock a Twitter had revenue of you know, around six billion when before they went private, and even if they are losing revenue and you know, Meta can lier ads over time, You're not buying the stock here with the hope that you know, this product is going to generate two three billion dollars
in incremental revenue. But what it can do is drive that engagement because ultimately, if you go to Twitter right now, their average time spent per user is around twenty seven to thirty minutes every day for the daily active users. If they can take a share of that, that'll be huge. Again, the cumulative effect of social media when you think about you know, meta is what people spend their time on the core blue app, Instagram and WhatsApp. You add another
dimension to it. It helps with their AI it helps with the overall advertisers, and that is what meta is after here.
All right, So, Ed, what's the feeling in the valley about Elon Musk. What's his response going to be? What's the future of Twitter? How do you think this plays up?
You know?
He Oh, by the way, I just did my first post on threads telling people to go to YouTube to watch our streaming.
So I am multidad. I will tasking out.
I will I will repost that. Just give me a second. I'm on air with you right now. Look, I mean Elon's tweeted. He said it is infinitely preferable to be attacked by strangers on Twitter then indulge in the false happiness of hide the pain Instagram. And I think his point is that historically Instagram is a photo based app where you give the perception that your life is very different to reality. I guess from a happiness perspective. Linda Yakarino, who is the new Twitter CEO, has tweeted in the
last thirty minutes. I wouldn't call it cryptic, but I would say that she really emphasizes what she feels is good about Twitter. She doesn't specifically name or call out threads, but you know, they're essentially the same thing. I'm a big meme guy, and you guys will have seen that Zuckerberg tweeted. He did his first tweet in since twenty twelve, eleven years, and it's the classic Spider Man pointing at Spider Man. The reference to episode nineteen B at the
nineteen sixty seven animated series is called double identity. They're the same platform, and I you know, Mandy may disagree with me, but to all intents and purposes, they're the same. And that's probably ahead of the cage match upset, mister Musk.
So do you think that it's likely that Meadow would be able to take a big chunk of users when it comes to Twitter? Obviously, as you know, there's been problems that Elon has had to go through when it comes to the Twitter platform over the past year.
Oh thank goodness. I thought you were going to ask, is it likely that Muskan Zuckerberg actually like each other in a cage? You know, I think that what I noticed anecdotally. I was on it for hours yesterday. It was a bit cringe fair. I sent many threads. I really engaged with people. A lot of what people were talking about is that they wanted the tone of Threads to be a pleasant place, a nice place, and many of them explicitly referenced the idea that they felt that
Twitter was not that way. And so you know, this is also playing out on Twitter in parallel, by the way, the irony lots of people on Twitter are talking about you're only going to threads as a vote against Musk himself because you don't like him or his personality. I don't. It's how can any of us quantify what kind of driver that will be for Thread's growth. I think Mandy's points on the future of the content on the on the Threads platform is the key bit.
Hey, let's just quick change gears here. I know you spoke with the CEO of Rivian yesterday, Ed, what's the key takeaway there?
Yeah, I mean two pieces of news. One, the court has just gone is the first time the supply chains normalized, and that was evidence by their output. They've made some tech fixes and they're really starting to ramp now and they basically suggested that they will outperform their guidance, which would be interesting. Professor's The other is there that he told me they're trying to negotiate with Amazon to get out of the Amazon's exclusivity to buy the commercial vans
from Ribbean. So they say that those talks are going well and that if there's a successful Ribbean can start selling these electric delivery bands that other players and and as we know from this program, right, electrifying last mail delivery in the logistics space is a big market opportunity. So that was a really good takeaway. Check it out on Bloomberg dot com.
All right, great stuff at Ed Ludlow doing all the tech stuff for Bloomberg Technology and Bloomberg News out there in San Francisco. Man, you've seen, of course senior technology channels for Bloomberg Intelligence.
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This is not necessarily tech, but you think about the tech enabled boxes that end up on your front door every single day, and everybody knows what I'm talking about let's get a sense of like the business of the box business, Ryan Fox. He covers a carrogated market for Bloomberg Intelligence. So Ryan, give us a sense of just kind of the stuff you covered, DoD Me just give us a sense of the industry that we all touch every day because it lands on our doorstep every day.
Yeah, so the average American is going to call it a cardboard box. In the industry, we call it a corrugated box, nice anadetically, like ninety five percent of consumer goods right in these boxes every day. So it's a very good indicator of what's going on in the economy. And well, for the last year, we've seen a gradual decline in box shipments by producers of those boxes going to brands who.
Are the main players in that space.
Yeah, many players are going to be International Paper West Rock Packaging Corp. At least domestically here in the US.
And you mentioned a slow down. What was the catalyst to that in what would that also mean for the trajectory of the economy.
Yeah, So initially the slowdown, it was linked to these the de stocking narrative that's been going on for about the last year. Most of the producers are saying their customers were pushing back, that they had plenty of inventory. Things weren't moving very quickly, and some of it we saw in our data. We saw that first quarter of twenty twenty two, lead times to get boxes went out on average like four and five weeks, And this was
a huge departure from the norm. The average lead time to get boxes is like three to five business days, so to have something about five weeks on average was just astronomical. So when you think about a manufacturer and how they have to place their orders, this caused them
to change their ordering. Some manufacturers during the pandemic had even gone to AI platforms that were initiating automatic orders even when they maybe didn't need them, and so at some point in the second quarter they found themselves sitting on a lot of boxes that they didn't really need. And so producers saw that slowdown at the end of the second quarter going into the midyear, and it really just slowed down from there.
All right, but where are we now versus pre pandemic. There's a lot more boxes out there, right, Uh, well, I'm getting so many a day.
All right.
Here's my thing. I'm really good at breaking down the box as soon as it comes in and we empty it.
I'm breaking that box down. I'm the opposite, and I'm putting it in recycling. But really it's got to be like way higher than pre pandemic.
No, So we're actually after the first quarter we were tracking with twenty seventeen as far as the volume of boxes it was going out. Our data indicates that through the second quarter we're probably still on that pace, maybe even a little bit behind there, and it's not looking good going in the second half.
Really, wow, I never would have guessed that, Hey, go following up on that, because I'm a big recycler, and I think this is every time I break down a box and put it into recycond I feel like I might be part of a scam here that it doesn't want to work. Tell us how the industry recycles boxes and stuff.
Sure, So, first of all, about over ninety percent of all of the recycled boxes that we get, and really all recycled commodities are going to come from commercial and industrial sectors. So we're going to be thinking about Walmart's and Kroger's and Albertson's and big retailers like that. That's where most of the old what we call old quirdated cartons or OCC, that's where they come from. Curbside recycling
is really not great. It's about seven to eight percent of the total, and it represents about two million tons a year. Americans just aren't great at recycling.
I'm really good at it, but I just so does International Paper take my box and then redo it and send it back out to me?
That's what I was curious about, because do they do that? Or also are there renewable basic materials that go into tissues and other personal care products?
Yeah, so OCC is a very highly sought commodity. It's we export about ten million tons a year of to other countries, but internally, we consume about twenty five million tons of old corgated boxes every single year, and we make new boxes out of them.
Do I play these stocks? Do? I? I mean, do I play it on? I mean, if I'm Mike, is my call on International Paper? Just how much stuff is getting shipped around the world.
That's a great question. I mean, I don't know, I don't know the right answer to that. They're they're traditionally very very stable companies. I mean, like I said, with ninety five percent of the world's goods that consumers buy riding in these boxes. It's it's not like they're going to go away anytime soon.
Yeah, I mean, I don't know just about my household.
It just seems like, you know, Tom Keane's always complaining about you know, his doormans.
What are you getting delivery?
I don't know. It's it's shampoo comes. I mean, you don't go to the store anymore. You just click. It's crazy. So I don't know what's.
Going on, all right, So we did some math on it and the average America. So if we were to take the volume of boxes that are made in average year, divided equally across everybody in the country, it's about twelve hundred square feet per person per year.
So there, Well, I'm telling you all right, Ryan, thanks so much for joining us, Ryan Fox, he is thanks. Corgated market analysts with Bloomberg Intelligence.
Learned a lot there. But I don't know. I feel like I'm a good recycler, but you know, Ryan's telling me that I'm just it's not that big a deal.
Think I'm ordering I'm Juney boxes.
I'm not moving the needle. But anyway, good stuff. To catch up on that part of the business.
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Just met and Paul sween here in a Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studio. This week, the Supreme Court struck down the Biden administration's student loan forgiveness plan, which would have done away with it as much as twenty thousand dollars per borrower. And remember, House also used the deal to raise the nation's debt sailing to force borrowers to start paying back their loans in October, which is sooner than planned. So it's really tough on that student loan forgiveness front. Let's
get the latest on what that could beat economically. We welcome Claudia Sam, founder of Some Consulting, former senior economist at the White House Council of Economic Advisors, so she knows about this policy stuff.
Laudia, thanks so much for joining us here.
Give us your view of what kind of we saw from the Supreme Court and from Congress over the last couple of weeks as it relates to student debt and loan forgiveness and that type of thing.
Student loan forgiveness not making it through the Supreme Court. I don't think that should be a surprise to anyone using executive powers to do four hundred billion in spending, and yet it came. This was the second of two blows to student borrowers this uh that week, and you mentioned in the repayments start sooner and for a lot of people that is going to be a hardship, right, like for you know, the time that they've not been paying.
That really eased up some space.
It's coming back somewhat sooner than the administration said it was going to end too. But this is this is earlier, so you're not getting this the forgiveness to help smooth over the period of adjusting, and you are getting your payments back sooner. So there's you know, it was not a good couple of weeks for people with student loans.
So with interest beginning to accrue in August and then those payments needing to be paid in October. How does that affect consumer spending? And obviously the trajectory of the economy.
Right, So it's clearly not good for the for the economy. It is the case that you know, the people themselves who are in these situations have student loans. This deeply affects them. And yet the amount of money we're talking about, like the new payments, it's really not the kind of magnitudes that really move the needle on GDP, like in the sense that oh, this would or demand and make it like, oh, the Fed doesn't have to do as
much because these payments are expiring. So I think with this policy, the macro lens is less important than the people side of it.
Isn't there already something along the lines of the Public Service Loan Forgiveness program? Can you tell us with that is how that works and how that might you know, help more people kind of deal with their student debt.
You know, In my piece I made the point is like, look, we're at a time where you've got a moment of reflection and how you go forward. President Biden said he's going to try and keep figuring out how to do this, and it's also a time where they could take stock and say, hey, let's look at some other forgiveness programs, what didn't go well, what did go well? And the one example that I talk about are these the debt forgiveness to people who work in a public service of any form.
You can think of.
As teachers, doctors, firefighters, right, any like, there's a pretty there's a big group. And in fact, the group that would qualify for these loans is big in terms of jobs of the economy. It can almost be twenty five percent of jobs. That's not to say all those people are eligible and they have student loan debt, but this is not a trivial subset. And one of the things that they have really struggled with that the Biden did not is setting up a plan where people actually get
the benefit at the end. Right, they have a low take up rate and they have a low success rate. But it's a complicated program. You got to pay back ten years, you know. So there are things there that but the Biden's forgiveness plan, sign up for it was so fast and massive, so there's lessons to be learned there. And I mean there are functional parts of that student loan setup.
So that could also. I think there could be.
A real exchange of ideas that would be fruit full, both for the forgiveness plan we actually have and the thinking about what would be next for a student loan forgiveness.
When it comes to the inflation front, there were concerns about macroeconomists about how the potential forgiveness could potentially spur a spark in inflation. What do you think this means when we're looking on the inflation front moving forward.
We're talking about basis points, right, like, you know, yes, it will probably have an effect. Yes, it probably did allow spending to be a little higher as the you know, you didn't have to do the payments with.
A student loan debt.
That's forgiveness. That's even less applical because it's spread out over ten years like the whole process. And it's yes, it will have an effect on demand, depending if it's there or it's taken away. And yet this is not that's not the argument that should bring down a program like this is the inflationary effects.
So, Claudie, we have received a lot of economic data, including today that's just this economy perhaps is stronger than people think that perhaps the recession is not right around the corner. I would love to get your recession outlook, maybe talk talk to us about something called the Psalm rule.
Yeah, what's that? Yeah.
So I've said several times last year when when the recession talk was really getting going, and it's like, we need to we need to hope that that labor market is as strong as the FED keeps complaining that it is right, because if it's strong enough, it can buffer and you know, slowly, there are other things related to the pandemic, to the war in Ukraine that as those work through, we could have inflation come down without the FED doing more and more and more. But they're going
to keep pushing. So the labor market being strong is good for people without a doubt, but it also can just buffer us so that we slowly rebounce, we slowly get inflation back down, as opposed to you know, bam, there's a recession and everything falls, including inflation. So I think it's the labor market is extremely important in that regard, And in terms of my recession outlook, I really am kind of on the fence right. For a long time, I was optimistic that we could have of soft landing
in some maybe softish type landing. When we had the disruptions in the banking sector, I think that caused more concern that, you know, we may really not pull this off because there's the FED has put a lot into the system in terms of raid hikes, and they have bank failures putting more in.
So it's kind but I agree with you.
As the latest data on the economy comes in, it looks pretty good.
And especially on the back of that ADP data that we got this morning Jolts, and then ahead of tomorrow's jobs report, what's surview as far as the drink of the labor marketing and what it can mean for the Fed's decision later this month.
So I think we're going to continue to see an expanding labor market. I mean no, not every month, right, we could have a big downside surprise this time, because
you know we've had upside. But I think you know, when you look broadbrushed and you look like recent months, not just like today and you know tomorrow kind of picture, I think we're seeing what the FED said it wanted to see, which an economy slow it just like people not spending so much, not you know, people coming back to work so they don't have to pay the wages quite so.
Much, so we'll know more.
We're going to know a lot more about the labor market by Friday.
But at the end of the day, the Fed is going to look at at inflation.
Are they get one more CPI before their meeting, and that is going to take precedent over anything else that they're learning because inflation is too high.
So, I mean a lot of folks will say. We had Danielle Di Martino Booth from QI Research Consulting in here earlier today and she was saying she thinks the economy is much slower than the headline data is suggesting. Some of the data that she looks at. Is your sense at the economy is in fact slowing down and is it material?
Well, if you think about the increase in perils this year compared to last year, they have slowed down. They're still really good, you know, in terms of relative to before the pandemic. So I mean getting two hundred thousand jobs a month, that was that was pretty standard before the pandemic.
So we need to get and I.
Think we're moving this way. There's enough rebalancing that we're starting to see things get kind.
Of back to quote unquote normal.
And that, and I think the labor market has behaved much more in that way than inflation has been a lot harder for people to square the data.
All right, Claudia, thank you so much for joining a Claudia Salm founder and independent economists, some consulting, former sector chief at the Federal Reserve Board, former senior economists at the Council of Economic Advisors at the White House, so lots of experience.
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It's Thursday. Let's get to our good friend, Barry Ridholts.
Always well dressed, always carries himself very well. He's a host of Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio. Has also got a day job Chairman and chief investment Officer Reholts Wealth Management. Barry, I have no idea what to talk about today, so I'm gonna throw out a word and you just kind of react inflation? What's going on out there? How should we think about it?
It peaked over a year ago, it's coming down, and the areas that are not coming down. You could blame the FED for causing a shortage of homes for sale and higher apartment rentals. Other than that, everywhere we look we see either falling prices. Look no further than the used car wholesale market, and use car price market has come down to luxury goods. The index that Bloomberg tracks of luxury watches have peaked and fallen twenty twenty five percent.
So wherever we look, inflation is rolling over. The three sticking points are labor and I don't see how higher rates are magically going to make a million more workers uppear in the United States, semiconductors same and housing. And housing is where the Fed is actually making the situation worse. Perversely, the FED is causing higher inflation, and the sooner they realize that.
How are they doing that, we'll all be what do you mean by that? How are they doing that?
All? Right?
Two major ways. The first is owner's equivalent rent is the largest part of CPI. What is it? It's effectively what it costs to rent your house if you wanted to rent it out. And when mortgage breaks go higher and there's an insufficient supply of single family homes and home prices go up, guess what happens to rental units. They go up also, second, there would be many more homes for sale. Perhaps he's in the price pressure we've seen
both in purchase and rentals. If people didn't feel locked in to Hey, I have a three and a half four percent mortgage. If I go out and get a new mortgage at six and a half seven percent, it's going to cost me a whole lot more for not a whole lot more house. We're better off staying where we are, says so many homeowners. And Hey, we'll add a pool, we'll redo the kitchen, we'll we'll just do some renovation, which, by the way, indirectly contributes to all
these rising prices for contractors. So many people have been doing that over the past couple of years. They're making that more expensive. If you want lower inflation, not only should the FED stop raising rates, they need to think about sliding back a cut or two in order to stabilize the rental market, which they are directly disrupting.
And your latest column on the terminal is about how more inflation expectations silliness that you're writing about. So you're
thinking that we aren't going to see higher inflation. But given what you were just talking about when it comes to especially shelter in housing, how you have different components when you're looking at inflation metrics, especially with CPI right, because shelter is more like around a third of the waiting, very different than say when you look at PCE right, which is a very different waiting there.
That's exactly right. So first, forget expectations. When we look at goods prices, not only have they stopped going up, many of them have come down in price, and quite a few have fallen to levels that were pre pandemic. When we look at lumber, when we look at a number of industrial metals, when we look you know, pretty much across the board, even energy, where are we sixty eight seventy two a barrel? That's what it was in two thousand and six. So I'm okay with oil being
the same price for twenty years. Yeah, it fell, it spiked, it collapsed again, but it's hard to say that we're really paying way too much for energy prices, natural gas prices can continue to drift lower despite the Russian invasion of Ukraine. So when we look at what's actually happening, prices are either no longer going up, or going up much more slowly, or actually coming down. But the Fed
likes to do this thing called inflation expectations. They survey a few thousand people and they say, where do you think inflation will be in five years? And there really is one honest answer to that, How the hell do I know anything else besides that is a lie. So when people say we think inflation is going to be appreciably higher in five years, all they're really revealing is their experience the past three to six months, and human
psychology is that's on a leg. It took people a little while to recognize while why inflation it's order to tick up, which is why inflation expectations throughout the first half of twenty twenty one were like, yeah, we're inflation's fine, just as it was spiking upwards, and then last summer, when it had peaked and reversed, people maintained their same, much higher inflation expectations for a few years. Humans are terrible at predicting and random people telling you what CPI
will be five years from now. I know there's been a lot of medical experiment with psilocybin and magic mushrooms. I didn't know it had actually reached the FMC research department because that's the only explanation for this sort of survey.
All right, Barry, we're getting to the dog days of summer. What are you driving these days?
So in the last year, I picked up it's funny to talk about this without matter around.
I know.
I picked up an old.
Nine to eleven or nineteen eighty eight Cabrio that the previous owner had just beaten the hell out of They had been racing it, and they had modified it. So I was able to pick it up for really deep down inside, I'm a value investor, so anytime I get a chance to pick up a Cabrio cheap, I did that, and I've slowly been bringing it back to stock. And as we're working on the car, by dumb luck, it turns out that it's the M four ninety one Special Edition,
which is the nine to eleven Turbo. It has everything the turbo has minus the turbo, so the whale tail, the fat fenders, the big tires, beefed up, suspension and breaks. It's just the turbos were known as widow makers. They were notoriously dangerous. So this is everything minus that, and I actually just brought it in. The last things I'm having done is the suspension return to normal. And that's kind of my fun summer driver. You could pick up. Everybody looks at these expensive cars if.
You do get them at a decent price.
All right, Barry, thanks so much, Barry Ridults there getting us the car talk.
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All right, here is a story that I've been sending to all of my Harvard buddies. They're not happy for a variety of reasons, and I'm blaming our next guest, Janet Lauren. Janet Lauren, higher education financi reporter for Bloomberg News. Harvard targeted by Massachusetts Bill on legacy admissions. Janet, give us a back story here, what's going on.
So this bill.
Has been introduced, it's been there was a committee last week. But the question is is it going to have an impact? So the question is does the state the state would like to tax schools based on their endowment pur student, and we know that there's a school with a quite large endowment in Massachusetts. It's a big target. And this would give schools, community colleges money based on formula foreign
Downman per student if they have legacy admissions. And that means if your parent went to school there, do you get a preference? And also early decision and why does early decision make a difference. Typically students who apply earlier tend to be wealthier. They're not necessarily waiting to compare financial aid packages when they get them in March. So the question is Harvard again is always a big target.
There's been legislation in Massachusetts before to try to TAXI ing down and also at Yale to tech and they have not been successful. There are huge drivers of money universities and the Higher Ed Association in Massachusetts said, look, if this goes through our students, our citizens are unfairly targeted because these policies potentially could go away.
What historically has been the catalyst to prevent those types of policies from actually going through.
Well, you know, firmative action in the Supreme Court decision has really prompted this. If the Supreme Court says you can't give a preference for race, why should you have a preference for wealthier applications? Is what is what this is is bringing.
Out interesting I noticed in your reporting that the Massachusetts bill or the second richest college in the state, Massachusetts Institute of Technology MIT, wouldn't pay anything because it doesn't use binding early decision policies or legacy preferences.
Yeah, I didn't know that. Yes, that is true. MIT has long had a policy not having legacies. But you know, MIT was one of the first schools to actually bring back the SAT and MIT is a Yes, they're pretty different because you kind of have to do the work, so it doesn't really matter if your parent went there. They're looking for kids who can excel in math and science and that's not going to be just anybody. And they also many of the schools do not have binding
early decision policies. Harvard Yale, Princeton stand at MIT. You know that was done more than a decade ago to take out that advantage. In fact, several years ago schools actually abolished early decision like Princeton and a few schools followed that, and they said that they were actually losing kids because they do like to shore up where they're going to school as early as possible.
How have these poor community colleges been impacted in the past when these policies haven't gone through.
Well, community colleges are really quite underfunded. You know, I was talking to one bunker Hill Community College in Massachusetts where they have more than ten thousand students, and you know, their goal is to get kids to graduate associate's degree, ideally transfer to a four year college. And you know, the worst scenario is when you have some college you've taken on some loans and then you don't finish and they are, you know, traditionally quite underfunded.
It's interesting because we're just talking to John Talker about this.
You know, going to a community college for a couple of years and you can transfer all your credits to stay in the state of New Jersey to Rutgers, which is a state universe of New Jersey Sunday. And then you can graduate with a Rutgers degree with only really two years of a Rutgers tuition.
Yes.
Well, and really the biggest issue when you're talking about student loans is when you have some college you and you don't have the degree, but you're carrying this loan burden for a long time. And certainly people think about community college is an alternative to having a couple of years of less expensive school, and as you said, transfering, you're still having the Rutgers degree. And plus you know, real experience.
As far as putting into perspective just how challenging is it and how many students end up not actually being able to accept and go to a university like Harvard just because of the increasing cost, Like say, if you don't have that kind of connection there where you're part of a family and an alumni group like that.
Well, Harvard for a long time has been trying to increase its financial aid and targeted to lower income students. So our story last week talked about the incoming class twenty five percent have incomes of eighty five thousand or less, and that's something that they've been particularly trying to target in the last several years.
How important are the legacy programs to the universities. I mean, it's a broad discussion point, but it seems like they're quite important for just I don't know, support and all that type of thing.
Well, the University of Pennsylvania used to say, look, if your kid wants to go here, you went here. You have to apply early, and that that's the only place where you're going to have an advantage in the early decision process. But colleges like to you know, preserve their communities, They like to encourage alumni to donate, and you know, you may we had a comment in one of the stories earlier this week that legacy programs do encourage people
to donate. You know, you're giving to your college for thirty years with the hopes that your kid might get in. That's you know, that is some revenue that schools don't want to curtail. And certainly we're also talking about wealthy donors too.
Right, And what's the likelihood that when we're talking about these admission policies that they would actually.
Likely go through time around? I mean, that's that's a good question. You talk to the higher ed lobby, you talk to observers, and they say, well, it's not that they have zero chance. Maybe they're you know, but before they had zero chance. Maybe it sounds a little bit more interesting with the Supreme Court. But you have to understand that colleges in massachuse there's a lot of rich colleges in Massachusetts, and you cannot undermine the power of lobbyists.
Colleges for a long time resisted the federal tax on endowments. It's something that a lot of Congressmen were interested because you know, Harvard has fifty billion dollars, Yelle has forty one billion dollars. You know, these are these are massive asset allocations and they're a rich target. But ultimately, you know, except for the federal endowment tax that went through in the Trump tax cuts of twenty seventeen, they've never been successful.
Talk to those about another topic that I know you're familiar with, which is we're seeing here the rich get richer, whether it's endowment or students or and maybe you know, the poor get poor in terms of some of these underfunded schools, under endowed schools literally going out of business. How's the playing field these days? What's happening out there what a higher education folks think is going to be the trend.
Well, there are a couple of trends. The first one is you had a pandemic money that certainly helped gave a huge lifeline to colleges for several years, and that's going away. You have what we've been writing about for a decade, demographic shifts. There are just fewer eighteen year olds out there, there's fewer kids to go to college, and kids tend to go two hundred miles away from their homes, and there's a lot of colleges and areas that are constrained, such as the Midwest and the Northeast.
So you have all these issues converging at the same time. With the prices expensive, our people making different decisions not to go to college. So you know when the price tag could be seventy eighty thousand dollars. Now, keep in mind that's not actually what most families pay because most of the smaller liberal arts colleges they do they do offer aid, so the sticker price is really not what they're paying. But it's a good question. We're starting to see.
There was a college in New Jersey that has now since merged with Montclair State. Bloommen was Bloomfield College, Right, So I think you're starting to see more of that, and you know, as you see schools looking for debt and their ratings are constrained.
Yeah, right, especially when you think of just in the context of COVID as well, what you were mentioning the haves and the have nots and how that can exacerbate that.
Well.
Great, Well, thanks so much for taking the time to speak with us. Janet Lauren, higher education finance reporter at Bloomberg News, talking to us about obviously this was a big topic you were looking forward to speaking to Paul as far as how Harvard is targeting this Massachusetts bill on legacy admissions and what that could mean obviously for endowments, but then also on the poor side of things, we were talking about community colleges.
Yeah, and I just I kind of feel like the well resourced families will find a way around whatever blockades or you know, kind of challenge to put up by colleges.
And clearly some of these things.
Right, they have historically done in the lobbying efforts.
Yeah, but you know, we thought about the Supreme Court case coming down people somebody said wrote in being a really good essay writer is not going to become even more important because you want to say, you know, as a you know, as an underprivileged blah blah blah blah, I overcame these and that's kind of the way to But.
Then you also have to kind of think about the haves and.
The have notz.
Yep, Absolutely, it's been a big, big issue.
But again, the community college schools have been such a great route for so many people over so many years.
You'd like to see that continue.
Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast platform you prefer.
I'm Matt Miller.
I'm on Twitter at Matt Miller nineteen seventy three and on Fall.
Sweeney I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio.