Energy, Market, and Housing Outlooks

energy here, I don't. We'll talk fossil fuels, we'll talk oil, gas, all that kind of stuff, but I also want to talk solar and we can do that with Rob Barnett, Senior analyst. He's a team lead for all the European energy stuff that comes out of Bloomberg Intelligence. And I initially said earlier the worst haircut on on Wall Street, but it could, in the eyes of many, be the best haircut on Wall Street. And you haven't seen it. Go YouTube summer Rob's cool video clips. Rob, thanks so

much for joining us here. What are your institutional investors want to talk about that they want to talk about Brent crude at seventy two dollars I'm sorry, seventies six dollars, or do they want to talk about solar and wind and that kind of stuff. What do your clients want

to talk about. Look, it's all of the above. We've got an investor base that is really excited about what the oil market could do in three but solar is also really hot, and in our view, at least the way we look at it here at b I, there's nothing incongruous about the idea that you could perhaps have a bull run in the oil market and also have solar demand growing like crazy. And so that's really how we see the world next year. We've got a very

strong call on how fast solar demands gonna grow. It's gonna be the fastest growing segment of energy by far. But the oil space looks pretty tight as well. You've got a tight set of supply demand fundamentals, and our our team that looks after the oil guys, uh, they see a pretty tight market. Yeah. I mean, I think it's interesting rob that, and I can understand why at first glance you would think that um solar and oil are competitors. But in the now they're not, are they.

It's pretty easy to see a world where everybody wants to invest in solar because it's the future, and we still need to pay as much as is necessary to get the oil that we that we have to run our economy. Now, yeah, that's right. I think they're very loosely competitive at the moment. Over time that will grow, But right now almost no oil is used in the power sector, a very tiny amount. And so basically the the extrapolation to how you think about them maybe competing

would be as electric vehicles. Uh it penetration grows through time, perhaps you'll have more e vs being charged with grid resources, including solar, and therefore you get a little bit more competition. But that's that's the longer future. That's really very marginal in the here and now. You know. I was talking to Ola Klennius this morning, the CEO of Mercedes Benz

and Um. One thing that's interesting is, uh, they are in a big push to put electric charging stations at gas stations all around the world, but gas station owners are not. You know. I remember when we interviewed Ben Van Burden from Shell and he's like, oh, yeah, we're doing it. It's just hard. It's like expensive and we gotta find the time and it's on the schedule somewhere. But come on, give me a break. You know that they don't want to do it, Otherwise it would be

done already. Why why aren't there electric charging stations at every single gas station? Uh, you know in the Western hemisphere. I think folks are frankly still trying to figure out

the business model. When you look at a company like Tesla, you've got the supercharger network, and there really just isn't an equivalent that has been built out for any of the other O E M s. They're essentially relying on those traditional businesses, and I think there's a lot of finger pointing going on, you know where You've got the

utilities who are wanting to dab away it. I mean, I mean the electric utilities, but you've also got the traditional fuel retailers who are also experimenting with it, and it doesn't really seem like anyone's found the right formula for how to make money at it. And I think that's why you see some of the reticence there. Yeah, I mean, I can't drive five minutes without seeing a gas station. That's good when I'm driving six point two

leader V eight. But the thing is, there's these huge networks of those everywhere, and if they could make the same marginal electricity that they could make selling you know, premium unladed gasoline, they would definitely already have installed them. But I but I think that that's this is a business model question. It's not something to lose sleepover. In fact, I think fuel retailers typically have pretty slim margins on

the fuel. They make their money when you pop into buy the candy bar or the soda to go with it, and so there's no reason that you can't have that with an electric vehicle as well. And you know, I think through time these things will sort themselves out. I'd also say most electric vehicle charging probably gonna be done

at home. You know, you you certainly need lots of electric vehicle charging for the long haul trip you know that you would take occasionally, but you're daily charging is probably at your garage unless you live in a city. Cities are the hard part of the problem. Rob twenty seconds. How tough is the winter going to be in Europe? You're based in London. You know this winter looks okay. We're in a bit of a cold snap right now

and that's pressuring the gas market and power markets. But the general view is that we've got enough gas to get through this winter. Next winter might be a little bit more challenging. Actually, all right, good stuff. Rob Barnett, Senior analyst. Uh. He leads our team of energy research folks over in London for Bloomberg Intelligence. I gotta see this haircut. Oh yeah, you gotta go check it. It's awesome.

He's out there. Uh. And he is super smart on all that energy stuff, including the policy of energy policy and the regulation of the energy space. Or fortune to have him at Bloomberg Intelligence again, b I go to get some of the best research on Wall Street. We had some ECO data today. We had the pp I coming in hot, and then we had the you missed data coming in right after that. If you type in eco, go on your Bloomberg or week ago the University of Michigan w E c O CO is a great way

to do it. Uh. And then you can pick out by flag um the country for the flag which you want to see the data anyway you missed. Uh. Current conditions stronger than expected, Sentiments stronger than expected. So um, inflation is hot, but so are expectations. Let's bring in a Nika Anika treon Um. She is the chief economist for Van Lanchet Kat kempin to talk about what this data means to us. Annika, thanks much for joining us.

What do you think first about inflation? I mean, do we all agree that inflation looks like it's coming down and the FED has to some extent got this under control. Yeah, well, I think the point is and this is also why markets have had a good time since the second half of ox sober. I think one thing we know for sure is that we've surpassed the peak in terms of

rates of increase of prices. So in terms of you know that the incremental increases in inflation, if not actually the fact inflation inflation of peaks, and the same goes from an interest rate perspective. And I think the one thing there's a lot of said bashing that's been going on because they've simply reacted to late etcetera. But the one thing that the Fed does seem to have under control is an anchoring of the long term inflation expectation

and that's very, very important for the market. And one of the other issues is in addition to inflation, and again we'll get some CPI data next week, is kind of recession outlooks. I wonder from your perspective where you sit as you think that maybe European economic growth, US economic growth, what's your recession call. Yeah, I mean it

looks like, you know, economic contractions are inevitable. I think it's more of a question of how long, how deep, how painful, exactly when, And quite frankly, that's that's more of an art than a science because it's very, very hard to predict those factors. Clearly, Europe is in for a much type of time than the US, given that the general strength of the US economy of the European economy is clearly a laggered. I mean, let's remember that pre COVID, you know, Europe would actually it was almost

setting into a recession anyway in this big pandemic. Rescue plan was very uplifting for Europe, but that was obviously a short lived rescue plan by definition. So I think that's that's the point. I think that means that, you know, with a higher rate environment, which makes economic conditions tougher, what we have to do to spend more time on is trying to figure out the calculations as to what exact impact on the real economy of these interest rates

having and because they've gone up so quickly. I think we saw comes to get to make those calculations in terms of the China reopening. Um does that play into your calculus of global growth? It seemed like, you know, we were all hoping for it for so long, and it seemed like we thought that would underpin a huge

jump in demand, but that hasn't played out in market pricing. Yeahman, I guess that The point is that the path of reopening for China is not that straightforward because obviously the zero COVID policy has lasted much longer than many people had expected, and the reopening is certainly with hiccup. So that's not a simple straight line that you can just you know, open the lid of the box and then bam comes this explosion of demands. But that clearly that

clearly will be a supporting factor. You could argue that that could also be you know, a reopening story could also be dangerous from an inflationary perspective, because quite frankly, we've had an inflation problem without one of the world's largest drivers of demand really participating in the economy. So what will happen to energy prices once that gets go again. On the other hand, that also alleviates and supply chains. So it's it's it's it's something that we have to

work our way through. So Anaka, you know, I'd love to get a sense of just kind of where you think the federal Reserve needs to be. Um, you know, I think you know, again, we're getting some inflation data that is, you know, as you suggested earlier, show signs that it has peaked at maybe the peaks in a rear view mirror, but it's still there. How do you in this policy is supposed to have what coming show its effects three to five quarters from now? Yeah, exactly,

So what do you think the feds are gonna do? Anika? I think the point that you just made is a really valid one. So because the world is of volatile things are changing so fast, were forgetting some of the mechanics. And to your point, there's a seriously significant time lag between third policy action and how the real economy should react to that. It's not as if you know, seventy five basis points lifts should suddenly impact next month's inflation reading.

That's not our real life works. And I think taking that into accounts, the danger is that you're working off the FED is working off a signal board which is of actual data versus predicted data. I either FED is reacting by definition late to the game, and I think the FED has had no choice but to do this and to continue to do this, because the biggest issue that said had was the credibility issue. And if markets don't believe that our central banks can manage inflation, we've

got a bigger problem to deal with. And that's why the fact that long term inflation expectations have been anchored thus far is very, very important, and that's why the FED will probably rather go on for a little bit longer in order to make sure they can maintain that. But why go on for I mean, do we really need another hudder basis points of tightening at this point? Well, I think I think it would be a delicate balancing acts.

On one hand, you know, to your point, if you keep tightening away, you're you're triggering aid into the market that's going to take a very long time to correct,

and why inflict that level of paint. On the other hand, the risk of pivoting too quickly and therefore unhinging that anchoring of long termslation expectations can be even more dangerous because the risk of then having to do a U turn because the next semplation reading is actually higher than expected, because I don't know, the China reopening has said to a bigger certain demandment expected um that couldn't actually end

up inflicting more danger into the economy. So I think it's this awkward, delicate balance, which means probably the FED will probably go on a little bit longer than the market might expect. The FED pivot might be a little bit further out there than people expect. But at a certain point, of course, you know, the rate of change we've passed that we've passed the peak of the rate of increase of rates, that's for sure. Anka, I understand

that you're based in Amsterdam, Is that right? Yes? Okay, So give us the feeling you know on the ground, how are consumers, how are companies thinking about kind of the war in Ukraine, a tough winter ahead in terms of energy, what's the what's what's the feeling across your

based upon kind of the folks that you interact with. Yeah, well, the sentiment has sort of turned again with regards to energy, because obviously we've all had a relatively benign winter and all those sort of you know, scary stories as too, well, we've got reserves of energy, but is that going to be sufficient? So far, so good until the last couple of weeks, right, and now we see, you know, temperatures going into minus. It was minus this morning, for example.

People are waking up and realizing, Okay, I've managed my energy bill at home thus far because it's not been that cold outside. But while the temperatures dropped, so there's

definitely nervousness around there. You know, You've have you know, some of the local the largest energy suppliers literally pointing out to the fact that there's huge percentage of their client base who are likely to go through cash flow problems from a family perspective, I mean, you have staters that are entering the economy into their job market who says, all, my energy bill is not that different to my rental

price of my apartment. So especially for the low energy label building, so it's it's it's scary, it's it's complicated. Having said that, you've got this sort of juxtaposition I think in many in many countries, in many cities where you've got all of those concerns and you know, recession seems inevitable in Europe and obviously the gas sights, etcetera. On the other hand, try and book a restaurant on a Friday night, it's pass by in book on all

the days yourself, it's fully books. So it's this bizarre juxtaposition. So Taylor Swift tickets exactly. I'm not sure if you're a football fan, but the Netherlands has a football match he means soccer in a few hours, and I'm going with the football cause I'm speaking with a European Netherlands against Argentine. What's the feeling within Amsterdam on the street today? How hyped up is the average you know, Dutch fan?

Very hyped up? I mean this is this is, this is a very big thing for the Dutch will be orange clofted everywhere and very excited. See I told you that Dutch, I mean, id they love and it's such a small cuntry but they produced so many good soccer players. I don't know how they do it, but it was my pick is my pick in this year's World Cup. So I'm looking pretty good here. But we'll see, Argentina

is gonna be toughly destroyed. The US Yeah, the only goal we scored against them looked like it was an accident. Kind of well, I don't know. We're coming up there on a trey on Chief Economist International, Van launch Shot Kempen, based in Amsterdam. Let's talk to Vince Sagnarella. He does that market stuff for us. He's a market strategist. He spent years on the street trading all kinds of things. We don't really want to ask too many questions about that,

but he's with us now, Vince Sagnarella. Vince, you get the inflation print today? UM, I guess that gives the Fed some room to continue to be hawk is here. What was your take? I don't think so. Actually, it's just one number. It's p p I. I put a little bit more weight on cp I next week, which is expected to moderate if that comes in hot again. I think the FEDS still sits um sits where they are with fifty basis points next week. UH, potentially fifty

basis points in February. But as the data I'm looking at and a couple of people out and talking to, UH, the expectations come January. Buddy of my in South Bay Research out in San Francisco, sees jobless claims jumping in late January, and that uptick will pull in UH forecasts for rate cuts next year. So if he's right and we get a jobless claims going higher from now into January, that is the feds. Uh, that's what the FEDS watching these days. Jobs. I mean, what, how can you claim

joblessness when there's over ten million job openings out there. Well, the point, the point that he makes, and I probably would argue the same thing, is that you know, as you're heading into a downturn, which is largely predicted, UH, employers stop hiring and then that's followed by layoffs. And while there's a delay in white college jobs, which are obviously the higher paying jobs, uh, they then surge in

layoffs going into that. So if that trend holds, come you know, the middle of the first quarter next year, maybe the end of the first quarter next year, we're going to see a situation where there won't be that many job openings available, or if there are job openings, they're probably jobs people don't want them. Let's see, we need talk to traders, Vince out there, how concerned are they about a recession? And there's a lot of everybody's talking about it, everybody is calling for it. But boy,

the consumers still strong out there. The consumer still has a job kind of I don't know, what are you what are you hearing? Well? I mean the the ideas. I mean, everybody thinks there's going to be a recession, most of the folks I talked to, But from a trader standpoint, whether it's a soft landing or whether it's a severe downturn, that they can't predict that, so they don't actually price for it. That del price for that

when it comes. UM. So we could see if we have a mile downturn, a nice bid going into risk next year. Obviously the opposite is true if we get a severe downturn UM. But you know, what they are talking about is essentially the feel that we're nearing a bottom, that feel that we're nearing a top in rates. UH take a page out of the Bank Accounada's book this week where they rose, uh rose, where they raised rates

and and then basically said we're nearing a pause. That they've done U, that their work has done its job on the economy. And a lot of a lot of traders here in the States think that we're going to see something similar to that coming from the set. If it doesn't come next week, they'll expect that they expected to come early next year. Surely they're doing Surely this is the first of two fifty basis point hikes. Right, No guarantees of February. I mean next week I think

is in stone, but I think February. Um, we'll watch the data and and see where it goes. I mean, you know, we're starting to see some things and this is in your wheelhouse. Um, use car prices are coming down, but um, new car prices have searched, so you're gonna see a switch and consumer spending. You know, when when beef prices go up, people buy more chicken. When new car prices go up, people probably go back to use cars or even uh just delay a car purchase if

they can. So those kind of things from an inflation standpoint, when they're way through the economy and take some pressure off the inflation scenario. You know who says we won't have a recession. Treasury Secretary Janny Ellen. She says the US is going to avoid a recession, talking you know it would. When was the last time, Vince, you heard a Treasury Secretary say we're definitely going into a recession

next year. Well, I mean talking about talking to your book, as a trader would say, I mean, she's she's got to be you know, she she's in the Biden camp. She has to speak to speak um and and frankly, I wonder what it's like to go from you know, an academic, uh, you know, an economist too well as

as the FED chair. She already had a taste of it, but really to to to be a politician, you're just throwing away all of that data based scientific, you know, uh stuff and and going completely to um, you know, talking your book. It's gotta be weird. I mean, give it to this way the way traders look at it. When she was the chair of the FED, she was

listened to and respected. As the Treasury secretary, no one trades on what she says saying because they know that, you know, she's saying what she has to say rather than what she wants to say. And there was a time when she was in the closet for a long time, and it's probably because she disagreed with the administration, and so they just kept her off the tape because they didn't want her to say anything that was that was

contrary to what the picture they wanted to paint. All right, So if I'm a trader here for the rest of today and going into next week, do I just wait on the CPI datas at the next data point and then of course the FED meeting on Wednesday. Yeah, I mean, you know, whatever you're seeing today and p p I is and knee jerk reaction, Um, I wouldn't put a

lot of I wouldn't put a lot of credit it. Um. You know, in fact, you know, big sell off might be a buying opportunity going into c p I of CPI moderates and Vince just on the dollar, still no credible bear case out there for the US dollar has come off a lot, has come off a lot. Well, I mean, you know, you know what I've been saying,

it's it runs inverse to the SMP. So you know, the day the Fed says, uh, we're pausing for a while, um, and the SMP rallies, you'll see the dollar come off, probably see a little steeper inversion until the Fed actually does begin to cut. But when that day comes, you're going to see a massive rally in the short end, and the days of the strong dollar will be over at least temporarily. Yeah, we were up at Yeah, we're right, Vince.

Do you look at the Bloomberg Dollar Index because is you know, economists say it's a much better measure of dollar strength. But I know that you know, traders probably grew up with d x Y trainers y Bloomberg Dollar Index is a better measure. As you know, they pretty much carbon copied my Ball Street Journal dollar index, which I created. Uh so I have I do sympathize with the Bloomberg Dollar Index. It captures way more data. Um, the Eyes Dollar index is pretty much a Euro dollar indexes.

All right, good stuff, we waited that way, all right, Vince, thanks so much for joining us there from the confines of Westchester, Vince Signorola, global macro strategist with Bloomberg News, giving us his thoughts on in a way Marko, creator of the Bloomberg Dollar Index by b d X Y index, Yep, that's the one I use. Now, I've been told by the people in the know and our c suite conversation today we're gonna talk a little fintech company is n Cino nastack symbols n C n O to type in

your blue be a professional tournament. The CEO and chairman joins us, Pierre not a Pierre, thanks so much for joining us here, uh and Sino. Tell us what you guys are doing in the fintech space. Yes, good morning, thanks for having me. We're doing three very important things for banks, but it is highly compliance oriented and very

complex for them, which is we onboard new customers. We originate every any loan from the most complex commercial and all the way down to a simplistic personal loan un secured, and we open accounts. Those things are complex from a banking perspective, but should be very useless friendly and be able mobile to do it on your phone, et cetera. And we automate banks. We were the first one to actually take this into the cloud ten years ago and

today we've got sevent fifty customers around the globe. We operate in Asia, pac Australia, Japan, we operate in Europe as well as the US and Canada. So what has been the pro problem then? In terms of the stock market, I mean the shares have just come down pretty steadily since from nine to that's correct. You know, we have ten quarters that are made and raised and beat our expectations.

So as a result, I don't really track the stock markets, but I'm focusing on my customers and my people, and I believe that these market cycles changes, we will get the right valuation for the company. We are a growth company. We do realize that the market sentiment is changed from pure growth into profitable growth, and we emphasized this in

our last um and it's called it. We are moving to for next year to a rout off thirty company, which is a twenty plus ten, so we are going to do a non gap ten percent of the bottom line at least, and I feel very optimistic. It's a good time for the company after ten years, to turn us from pure growth into a best in class profitable growth. Pierre, How's how did the pandemic the last three years? How

did that impact your business? The pandemic actually was pretty good for us because the government gave all this football p money, the payment protection plan to banks and said distribute this and they have no ways to do it. Through Encino stepped in and distributed billions of dollars on behalf of the bank because our technology enabled them to you can do an online application and get the money

to you. Part of our growth story was so we accelerated through the early stage of the pandemic and then towards the end um some of that business went away and that's what slowed down our growth rate because year over year you had a massive spike and go to and then some of the business panned out. So it was a good thing for us. It accelerated um digital transformation and the awareness of how people want to interact with the banks. So I think long sterm it's a

great thing for us. All right, Pierre, good stuff. Appreciate you taking a few minutes to check in with us. Pierre and not a CEO and chairman of Encino fintech company. It's a star symbols n C n O trades on the nastack. We appreciate getting a few minutes of his time. Well, the FED has been raising interest rates to combat inflation, and one of the areas where we've seen the impact most notably has been in the housing market. Uh, you know,

certainly feeling the negative impacts of higher interest rates. We want to get the latest on what's going on there in the construction business. John Fish, CEO and chairman of Suffolk Construction Group up there in the Boston area. John, thanks so much for joining us. Talk to us about kind of your business. How's your business been impacted by rising interest rates this year? Yeah, well, man, Paul again, thank you very much as an honor just to be

involved this morning. You know, it's interesting is is we all know real estate runs on credit, uh, and the interest rates, the higher they go, the more impact they have on our industry overall. And what we're seeing right now is the interest rates are climbing to six six appercent for purchasing a house in today's day and age, it's really tamped down the demand for housing. People that have a you know, to an episode mortgage don't want to move out of a to an episode mortgage into

a six and appisent mortgage. So my sense to be is, I think the more these traits continue to climb, the more impact is going to have on the overall economy. So what, uh is the focus of the construction you do at Suffolk, Well, what we do we work all over the country with the different types of educational, healthcare and life sciences and a variety different types of work. But what we're seeing right now on the residential side

and the commercial side. One residential it has slowed down projects on penciling out like they were say, almost like I would say, less than nine months ago, because the impact administrates, the cost of funds are driving this almost to a stand still in many respects. That on the office side, which I think is really crippling right now, because we all know what people working from home is have a devastating impact on the inner city areas and

on small businesses as we know. So to me, we need to figure out overall how do we get people backing the seats in their offices and consuming in the small shops, piece of shops, coffee shops, and all the of these around America today. So John, kind of where where are you seeing it in your business? Because you know, I'm just looking at your website here. I know you do a lot of you know, uh business uh construction as as well as uh residential. Where are you seeing it?

Most notably? I would say right now, it's the areas, uh, right right now in the east coast of the country and the west coast of country. What was seeing in the areas where it's more favorable from a tax point of view, I would say Texas in the southeast part of the country, there's more economic activity and momentum in

those particular eras there are in other particular eras. For an example, in the Northeast, they just raised what it's called millionaires tax that raises four percent on the state taxes. And although it's not significant, it is significant because again it's piling on top of piling taxes. On talk of taxes, what we need to do. We need to open up the aperture from a business perspective, because business drives our economy.

What can we do to put people back in the seats, back to work, okay, and generate what I call the American dream? All right? So, um, we are in a situation that looks like it could get worse economically. A recession has been forecast by pretty much anybody. Um uh that we that we talked to. What's your outlook for the economy, say in three And how does that then further affect a business that, as you point out, has already been ground to a halt. Well what what? What

my sense is right now? I look at it like a patient. The patient is sick, the medication is interest rates, right, now, I think the hiring of interest rates the FED is doing on a gradual basis is working. I think the fifty basis points are going to produce hopefully next week and not I think we'll sort of send this thing up. They are slowing the rate rising going forward. And also what I see is the rate increase is having an impact on softening consumer demand and is driving down the

demand issue. But what I really think is right now, we're always talking about the terminal rate of interest rates. I think now we're talking about the duration of where these at rates are going to go. Because I think the uncertainty driven by the duration is creating a lot a lot of concern for the customer and the consumer, and that's why they're starting now to put more pile up on the sidelines. From my perspective, John, talk to us about labor um to build your projects. How has

it been, how is it now? What are you guys trying to do to adapt? You know, it's a great question. I would say there's three what I call the three eyes in our industry that we really keep an eye on. One his interest rates, and again I said, not determinable duration together was an inflation, right now with the seven point seven percent, and I think that has a lot to do with pupping three trillion dollars in the economy.

And last is, I think we get a significant structural issue in America today that I think we need to okay, both in Washington and the business we have to come to terms with. It's not only lower workforce participation or aging workforce where people working from home, it's all the above. And my concern is if we don't resolve this immigration issue in the United States of America, we are going to become to a and still are not able to produce because right now our work force today is aged.

It's different technologically from the tools that they're using. And also the sense to me is this lower workforce participation we need to come to grips. And I think that's probably one of the most important issues government today in business has to come together and to try to solve. I mean the likelihood of that happening. This is a third issue. Right, Well, here's my sense. At the end of the day, right we had the Gang of Eight

talking about immigration back you know, two years ago. What I think we need to take that playbook out of the shelf and put it back on the table and start having some significant conversations about how do we get people back to work and more importantly, how do we resolve this immigration to put people back to work, to increase the labor force participation and hopefully increase product give you overall inefficiency. So John and I know you guys

have a big, big business, uh touch about regionality. Are you seeing areas of the country that are particularly weak, areas that are particularly strong, maybe bucking the trend? What are you seeing? What we see? We were about a

five and a half billion dollar business. We work nationally, and what we're seeing, as I pointed out, in the areas where it's more of a progressive approach to taxation and the overall attitude about business climates is we're seeing those particularly areas being more impacted by the heightening of interest rates and areas, like I said, the southeast part of the country and in the Texas region right now, and Okay, what we're seeing is more open to a

policy to try to make things work. And so we've grown our business significantly the seth East part of the country. We're growing our business in the Texas region right now, and we are very very bullish on a going forward basis. Again, everything is relative. Again, we were not really sure what exactly that's going to do over the next I would say two or three quarters, but my senses demanded will

slow down. But in the good areas of the country with his favorable tax policy, is labor availability like there is in Texas in the southeast part of the country, You're gonna see a lot more economic bybrancy in those areas than you are. Another pic the area is where we don't see that because of immigration, well, you know, because of the overall business climate. I think you see you see a migration of people out of the Northeast,

especially the New York New Jersey area. I think the same thing is going to happen in in the Boston area. And I think the same thing from California Arizona. So when you take a look at me of the bicoastal areas of people moving inland and down south, I really believe what's going to happen is those particular areas of

our country. I'm going to continue to grow grow from a driven by business and I think at the end of the day, I think that is going to be really the pocket to grow gover the next decade that we need to really focus on, all right, John, great stuff. Always appreciate getting your perspective, John Fish. He is the CEO and chairman of Suffolk Construction Company UH commercial real estate construction on the national scale, giving a sense of

kind of the the opportunities and the challenges. Of course, the key challenge UH and that part of the economy is rising interest rates making it tougher to get those projects done. All so calls out labor as a challenge as well. Getting folks on the site. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe and listen to interviews of Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter at Matt Miller three

on Fall Sweeney I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio.