Eaton Vance Head of Fixed Income: Keyed on Cyclical Rotation Trade

thanks so much for joining us here. We had some pretty big political news that we're digesting today. It appears it's not already called, but it appears that the Democrats will win both seats uh Senate seats in Georgia. Um, what does that mean do you think for markets? We're seeing a big move in the treasury market here with a tenure trading above one, you know, above one percent, close to one point zero five percent. What's it mean to you as it relates to the bond markets and

a Democrat in the White House and perhaps controlling the Senate. Yeah, well, first off, thanks thanks for having me on. I guess you know, before the presidential election and the congressional election. We had an early November, everyone was talking about a blue wave and it didn't happen. And now it's you know, I'd say we're kind of having a blue wave light

if you will. Uh So, certainly, you know, if you look at the market reaction today, the selloff and Treasury is the steepening of the yield curve, sectors like the banking sector, you know, outperforming. I think, you know, markets are focused on the potential for more fiscal stimulus coming from the Democrats, you know, assuming that that the second race you know, holds and off Off wins with thet split and Kemla Harris having the tie breaking vote control

of the Senate. And you know, to me, the real question is, you know, how much should markets and focus on the fiscal stimulus versus the potential for higher taxes and more regulation. And my prior would be it's probably gonna be more of the fiscal stimulus, which is more of a positive than the regulation and tax increases, just because of the razor thin margin UH in both the House and UH and certainly in the Senate. But you know,

I think that's what markets are focused on. That's why we have the steeping of the yield curve, you know right now. So what's the next move for the yield curve? Would be time to load the vote on ten years and beyond or or look, I know to me, this is where you know, what the FED does is going

to be particularly interesting. So if you think about the FED policy, and we saw it, you know, over the summer with the virtual Jackson hole and then more comments from Powell and the rest of the FOMC, if this average inflation targeting concept where the Fed, you know, it is kind of committed to not let bygones be bygones.

So if they're missing to the downside, which they have been on their inflation target, to run easy policy and so you know, I think we're assuming all holds with with the vaccine rollout and we get this cyclical recovery that I think very likely will happen, but you don't know what until it really happens and you get more fiscal stimulus, you'll have some pressure on the back end of the curve, and I think the FED will be okay with that if it's because of recoveries, recovering the

economy and because higher inflation, So real rates aren't going up a lot. Where I think the FED might step in and buy more bonds, you know, would be if real rates are going up and if financial conditions are getting tighter preemptively in their view. So I think it's gonna be really important to watch the Fed's reaction going forward and how that interacts with both fiscal policy and you know, hopefully a cyclical recovery you know, post the vaccine rollout. So ered, what what is your view on

inflation here? We're seeing a tick up a little bit recently. What are your what are you thinking? Is you think about your I think there's a lot of conditions in place for an increase in inflation. Um, you know, as I said, you mentioned before, the whole the point of FED policy right now, you know, the FED policy over the past you know, six months or so, as we've had this recovery uh in markets. But obviously the economy things are a little better, but still mostly on hold

with with covid um. The Feds you know, been at zero and not doing much, which isn't you know and say is doing so much for the economy, but it's doing something. When the economy starts to take off. If the FED really does keep rates at low and you know, at zero and tries to stay behind the curve, that's an impulse for inflation. If there's a cyclical pickup, that's

an impulse for inflation. Even you know, forgetting the FED policy which is which is going to be easier, and then you get fiscal and potentially more more government spending and you see commodity prices and other things start to go up. I think there's a lot of things lining up to get more inflation, and we're starting to see that priced into two various asset markets. How is the weakening dollar index changing how you're looking at bond markets

around the world argon and where you're placing your bets. Yes, so you know, I certainly think that you know, we will continue to see a weakening dollar, you know from here. You know, if you're a U. S. Dollar based investor, it makes non non dollar assets, you know, more attractive.

So you know, I think you know, in our let's say, advanced global macro strategy, looking for non dollar currencies going along currencies against the the US dollar, And you know, coronavirus is all over the world and you can't discount yeah, correct, And you know there's there's there's there's some places that are you know, more more attractive than than others, you know, for for sure. Um, you know, I think of you know, one place from both a bond and a currency perspective,

I'll say is China. And you talk about the place that that has had the corona even the coronavirus originated there, certainly has had it more under control. You know, you

have significantly more attractive government bond yield stuff. Then you get in the US and frankly, you know a lot of other places not only developed but the emerging world, and you know, to some extent, and we'll have to see how you know, US policy is visa vach China with the Biden administration, I think that's you probably do the whole whole segment on that. But I think you know, the Chinese are okay with with running a fairly strong

uan policy. And so if you have a uh, you know, week dollar environment, which I think we're in and we'll continue to be in. Uh And you also have the Chinese policymakers that are okay with the yuan getting stronger. Uh. You know, I think being invested in Chinese government bonds both from an interest rate perspective quite attractive, but also from a US dollar investment perspect div I think the

Uan will will appreciate versus the US dollar. ERED love to get your thoughts on kind of the credit quality out there you're seeing perhaps in your portfolio. I mean, we're, you know, ten eleven months into this pandemic and the economic fallout. Are you starting to really see it in credit quality? Yeah? You know, Look, look when we talk, you know, I think of you know, eating vance fixed income.

Really it's our our bread and butter. Is our you know, bank loan and high yield, investment grade credit or credit shop. And you also sovereign a musicipal credit, uh, you know as well. And you know, I certainly think in the more leverage parts of the market and bank loans and

high yield. For sure, you've had higher default rates, you know, the past twelve months, and then you had you know, the previous twelve months in two thousand nineteen, But a lot of those default rates aren't nearly as high as as beefore. Certainly thinking about March of last year in the kind of heart of the of the pandemic, and we you know, we started to see recovery and more of the COVID sensitive names, and so I think the best thing, um, you know, for for credit markets right now,

you know, it's really two things. One is if the economy picks up, that helps you cash flows for businesses and it makes them um more credit worthy. But you know the other thing we're seeing is the bond markets are just open for issuance. I mean you get emails record issuance, and the investment grade market kind of markets off and off and running with you know, with lots

of issuance. And so capital markets are open. Uh. And if companies or or sovereigns or municipalities can take advantage of those, that kind of by construction makes them better credits because they're they're paying relatively low interest rates and have you know, you know, relatively good terms to issue debt. So I think we're certainly kind of in this sweet spot, uh, in that regards with capital markets open and with the

economy hopefully it looks like but again very vaccine dependent. Uh, you know, about to take a cyclical increase, you know at some point once once the rolla happens. Eric, how disciplined have you been how much drive powder or easily accessible powder. Let's say, do you have at your disposal percentage wise? Yeah, there was a great question, I'd say, you know, to me. To me, the great thing about how we're structured to eat advance is all of our

differ and investment teams invest differently. So there's not there's not one particular number. You know, we have multiple different funds on multiple different teams. Um you know where where cash is different, you know, percentages across those, So there's not there's not one you know, perfect answer to that. But but i'd say, you know, in general, you know, we're a place looking for kind of relative value across markets as opposed to just timing markets with with having

cash and and and dry powder. Although that you know, certainly various strategy by strategy. Eric, you know, we've seen in the equity markets a rotation trade, if you will, from some of the tried and true high growth tech names into some of the more cyclical areas of the market, anticipating you know, the other side of this pandemic and economic reopening and rebound beginning arguably some time in the middle of this year. Have you been doing something similar

with your fixed income portfolios. Yes, so I think it's a great question. To me, it's it's the number one thing I'm I'm watching from a you know, from a financial market perspective, is does this rotation trade that you know kind of started, uh you November of last year kind of post election, post those two mondays that that we had the good vaccine news. Uh. And you know, obviously I think it's it's you know, growth stocks to cyclical, but it's also you know, US to non us um.

But I think it's you know, a setonymous from a bond market perspective, with with a steeper yield curve with COVID credits, um, you know, the COVID hit credits outperforming and things like that. And so I think when you look at broad markets, obviously, you know, broad market valuations, pe ratios, spreads and whatnot, you know, could look fairly stressed,

you know, stretched or at least fully valued. But I think the you know, that cyclical trade, I think is probably where there's still some value left across financial markets. And assuming again assuming I'll reiterate this again, that the vaccine rollout goes well, I expect money to continue to flow there. So yeah, I think, you know, selectively, we've been adding in some of the COVID related credits and also you know, inflation break evens and they used to

continue to go up. But I think, you know, markets that will benefit from um, you know, inflation going up, so inflation break even trades or other you know types of trades that will benefit from a steeper reel curve. You know we have we do have some of those in our portfolios for sure. Alright, I'm sure you how to call this morning. Was there any sort of target on the tenure yield? I don't have a particular call,

you know on the tenure. Yeah, I would think that it you know, it probably goes up a little bit from here. To me, the most important thing will be, you know, what is the what is the FED respond How does the FED respond to it? And again I think if it's if it's because we're getting cyclical growth, it's because we're getting higher inflation, they're okay with it. If real rates start to go up a lot and that tightens financial conditions, then I think the Fed, the

FED jumps in. So to me, that's the most important thing to watch when thinking about the ten year treasury. But my bias would be that it probably goes up a little bit from here. So, Eric, where is the best value that you're seeing in the market right here? Yeah? So I think you know a couple of places, you know, emerging market local currencies I think are good value. I think bank loans are good value. I think parts of

the you know, securitized market clos are good value. UM. And I think they're they're certainly selective opportunities, you know, across across those uh, those markets, you know, as well as trades that have been on a steeper yield curve or better been on higher inflation, so things in the

recovery UM kind of bucket. I would think that, you know, there's probably the best value out there, but again, nothing is the value of what it was, you know, post that mark sell off, even back the summer markets have moved a lot. But but I still think there's there's some selective areas of opportunity for sure. All right, Eric, thank you so much for joining today, and excellent day to be speaking with us, and for us to be

speaking with you, I should say rather. Eric Stein is chief investment officer for fixed income at the massive, humongous Boston based to eat in Vans. The calculus could potentially be changing given induction results in Georgia. We haven't got the absolute final figures yet, but one thing we did have today was a DP employment change which showed a drop of one three thousand private sector payrolls. Economists were looking for that to be a positive figure of seventy.

So let's bring in Carl Weinberger finder and High Frequency Economics chief economists to explain to us how the calculus for him has changed over the last twenty four hours. Literally, Carl Vannie, good morning. Um, yeah, it's an exciting night overnight for anyone watching the US economic and budget prospects. We see likely wins, although still not confirmed by Democratic candidates,

and um, the Georgia runoff. Everybody knows that already. That opens up the door to getting more done under the Biden administration, probably not a full blown new green economic deal, but putting together a package that can appeal to most of the center of the road Democrats and maybe drawing some of the center of the road Republicans and pulled together a coalition and to send it to enable Biden to realize some of his goals. That probably means some

reversal of some of the Trump tax increases. It probably means more support for incomes of people. UH. And again tweaks here and there on the Trump program to bring up more inline democratic thinking. I don't think we get radical results out of it, but we will see change. Carl, what kind of spending bill do you believe UH has perhaps the most bipartisan support in what looks like to be this new Congress, and and and what will have

the biggest impact on the economy. Yeah, so I think that the first word that comes to mind his income support. And we're going to get some increase in the package that that we've seen UH that was put out so far. The American households need that kind of support right now, and this is the time to go to the trenches and get it. Number two infrastructure, all right, great depression alright, ifd are sending people out to dig dig is in the build ugly roads in New Jersey and ugly bridges

that are still standing today out of concrete. Um, we have to put people to work, and infrastructure projects or a way to do that. I think that infrastructure is something that even Republicans who are trying to get themselves reelected and as soon as two years have to be able to agree with the Democrats on and number three, I think taxes. I think this is a big cry among the Democrats. We're going to see some unrolling at least of some of the higher income tax breaks that

came out of the Trump administration's tax efforts. We'll see probably a restoration of the state and local tax deductions, um, and things like that. Yeah, I mean, that's a huge agenda if Chuck Schumer does actually display Republican leader Mitch McConnell of the centers thereby deciding on what can come before the chamber for a full vote. And you know, Joe Biden has Kamala Harris to sort of cast a tie breaking vote. Just how to the left will Joe Biden go with as legislation. And I mean a lot

of Democrats that are elected are pretty moderate too. Yeah, well, Bunnie, let's remember how we got the president stimulus bill done just to look for a third way. Um, if I can borrow that phrase from somebody else. Um. We saw moderate Republicans joined together with moderate Democrats to get fifty one votes in the Senate to bring the bill to the floor, going around Mitch McConnell's view that objections to

bringing it to the floor at all. And this is another way that this can move forward, alright, movement towards the center on ideas that appeal to both moderate Democrats and moderate Republicans. This is the way things used to work in Congress. You know, we'd find a place in the middle that everybody could get to with each side

is being willing to make compromises. I think you can't rule that out as a way that this is going to go, that it's going to be the center as much as the majority leader who's going to be driving the agenda in the Senate. Corl Let's switch gears a little bit to China. We've had some news today about the delisting appears to be off on some of these China telecom names. What do you what is your expectation

for um trade under a Biden administration? How do you expect this administration will uh address a trade and just broad at tensions issues with China? Paul, I thought you were going to ask me about inflation on China. All Right, We're going to see I think not such a big We'll see a change in attitude and an approach, but not such a big series of concessions coming right out of the gun. The Trump administration has left a lot of chips on the table for the Biden administration to play.

I think the Biden administration will be tough on China, although perhaps coming at it from a more balanced point of view, and they're not going to unwind tariffs and sanctions unless they get something back for it. The test of that theory will be whether the Chinese think it's important anymore to play cade American interest, but whether they're completing a pivot toward Europe that gives Europe a role on China, this geo strategy that the US might have

had but now won't have. So there's a lot of potential dynamics there. But I don't think the Biden administration is going to come out making nice nice with the government in China. I think that any rolling back of trade restrictions is going to be um uh sast over time. One other point, despite all the sanctions and all the other things, goodness gracious, China book the record trade surface with the United States on record exports in the last

monthly report. It's not killing them. What the Trump administration has been doing. Hey, Carl, thanks so much for joining us. We always appreciates your thoughts. UH and out LA Carl Winberg, founder and chief International Economists for High Frequency Economics, based in New York City. Another fascinating story we've been following for the last several days is the New York Stocks Change UH and its dealings with some of these Chinese

telecom companies and the n y SC surprise markets. Again today it's reverting to its original plan to de lish shares of three Chinese companies. From where we bring advance reporter Lenan Newon in New York. Lennon, I've been getting whip sale, like I'm sure many investors have by the New York Soacker Change and it's listing delisting of these

Chinese companies. What's the latest. So, the latest, Paul, which is something that we um we're reporting on sources yesterday, is that NYC will go ahead with the listing through

the Chinese companies. Now, what it has done is gotten specific guidance from the Treasury Department that these companies and those securities are in scope, and so it's decided to proceed again with the listing right so you know, you you sort of answer my next question to certain extend Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchen calling on n YSC President Stacy Conningham to say he opposed the Shock announcements to grant the company's a reprieve. So how much do pause explain

to the saga how much are they allowed to? I think there's a lot of politics already embedded in that question, body, And this is a highly highly political story here. So obviously we can't look at this without looking at the context of the U. S. And China trade tensions and you know, trade war that we're in Wisconsin right now, and so obviously, um, you know, a U S Stock exchange deciding to delist securities of Chinese companies is highly political,

highly contentious. Obviously, it was criticized in China. Those companies are kind of watching the situation closely, and also it's being watched very closely by the US business community as well. Many US firms, including the biggest US banks, are trying to expand in China, and so you know, this kind of puts things in a sort of contentious um and

and tense environment. So I kind of was surprised. I guess it was most surprising was yesterdays announcement or they announced by the n y s E to uh suspend the delisting if you will. Did they kind of go row there yesterday? It's very unclear. A lot of our sources are still scratching their heads. There are a lot of questions about what happened behind the scenes here, Paul, So unfortunately I can't answer that question too directly, but what I can say is that, um, you know, it

sounds like this was messy on both sides. It sounds like it was messy in terms of, um, you know, how how it was handled and decided within government and also how it was rolled out by NYC. Obviously, big U S companies don't tend to you know, take action, reverse and then reverse again. Um. And so obviously there there's going to be some soul searching about what what exactly happened here. So it's pretty messy, um, and we're

still trying to figure out exactly what went wrong. Have you been watching the market today, lan R, A d R is reacting, Yeah, Well, A d R s have reacted throughout this whole process. They kind of went went, you know, fell when the listeners were announced and then went back up when they were pulled back, and so

I think it's a bit of a roller coaster. But what's key here is that it looks like these securities are you know, in scope of the executive order, and it means that investors do have to get rid of them my next week. So what's the you know, speaking to some observers here and more from a geopolitical perspective, is maybe the concern that perhaps China will retaliate against the US and maybe some US companies. Is that a realistic concern from the folks you talked to. Definitely a

realistic concern for sure. Um. And again these are subtle, um, this is a nuanced situation. Pause though it's not as if you know, we're hearing about any kind of tit for tat threats. But you know, the US business community does want to have a good relationship with China, and so the escalating trade war um, you know, particularly in

the financial community is not looked upon well here. So I do think whether you know, US companies are talking to their Chinese base or talking to their Chinese context, well, whether they're just anticipating um, you know, negative blowback. UM. I think that's a very real concern. What does the financial community tell you about how much work will need to be done by a Biden administration to improve the relationship, and whether they feel like that's what the Biden administration

will even try to do. Well. I think first of all, they want to sift through the issues that are in front of them right now, which is how to um, you know, help the trading of the securities that are affected by this executive order. UM. And then you know, see what happens in the next couple of weeks as the Trump administration leaves, whether there are any other you know, trade related issues that could come up in the next

couple of weeks. Obviously it's very unpredictable time. Uh. And then going forward, yes, I think the business community is very very interested in trying to rebuild and repair relationships with China. UM. And it's you know, it's not exactly clear how the Biden administration will react to this, but there is obviously a lot of legislative UM sort of

hawkishness around China as well. So it's not just about the administration, it's also about what's happening in Congress, all right, so lean's assuming we don't get any new wrinkles in the story, and that's a big assumption. I guess what is the expected timing here? If I own these stocks, I guess I have to sell them? And when do I have to sell them? And what's the timing there?

So the industry is really looking at Monday as being a key date because that's when you are not allowed to trade the securities anymore, either buy or sell kind of like actively, um you know, transact them. So that means all of the indexes, for instance, are going to have to sort of remove these securities, and the exchanges are going to have to remove them, and so there are a lot of kind of follow on effects if you have a kind of passive holding in your portfolio

that has to be divested by November. But um, you know, everyone else in the markets, the real kind of day to day people are looking at Monday as the real stop dead date. And why three telecommunications companies in particular, There are plenty to have other Chinese companies listed. Will

they be next? Or is is the impetus specifically telecoms? Well, I think one of the things that the industry is kind of signed with release today is that it got specific guidance from the Treasury as to which entities were sort of viewed as you know, being linked to the Chinese military. So that's that's the move, right that it originates with the executive order, and it originates with the administration.

So you know, one of the things that the industry has been clamoring for is clarity around which securities, not just which kind of over overarching companies, but also which subsidiaries, which kickers, et cetera. And they were looking for details, um. And so that that is one question that has been at least put to rest today, UM in terms of you know, which companies were selected. Again that's to do with the links to the you know, Chinese government and

its military. So that was the call by the administration. And then and just finally, I think about some other big Chinese cup It is list to hear, you know, the Ali Bobbs of the world that j DS dot com. These are huge companies as well. I wonder if there're at risk. Well, I think there has been a ratcheting up of executive orders in recent days, and obviously the outgoing administration is um you know, making taking action on China. Um. We will see whether that is continued extended once the

new administration comes in or not. But certainly, you know, in these last couple of weeks of the Trump administration, we are seeing a ratcheting up of sort of tensions with China on multiple fronts. Lanan, thank you so much for jumping on the phone. There her wonderful story to day, and we'll see reverses again with plants list China teleconference. She's written a few of those in the last two days,

but she has not felt confused. Laana Nuian covering stocks and all sorts of stories and and UH finance reporter. More broadly for us at Bloomberg, we are awaiting comments from President Trump is he delivers remarks at the Women for America First March to Save America rally in Washington, d C. Let's get a little preview what we might hear and kind of what's going on at the White House. We can do that with Josh wind Grove. He's a White House correspondent for Bloomberg News. Josh, thanks so much

for joining us here. We're waiting comments from President Trump in Washington. Do you expect anything new today or will this be some of his speaking points as it relates to the election. Yeah, good morning. I think it will be a greatest hits album. For lack of a better phrase. He's been tweeting through last night and in the morning urging Mike Pants to reject the results today in Congress, which mc pence doesn't have the power to do, and it's given no signal that he's willing to do, but

it's kept quiet on. So I suppose those room for a surprise on that Trump is discrediting the results, uh, you know, over the objections of the Republican state officials who are running this election. But it's also tacitly acknowledged that they've lost the Senate and is using it as a motivation for Republican senators and members of members of the House to overturned biden victory and keep him in

the presidency so that he can veto things. So, you know, Trump has been fundraising office office, He's been a font of misinformation. H he has been stoking the anger of his supporters. It's very unclear how the air will come out of this balloon. Yeah, I mean, Nathan Hayar just played some sound from a woman at today's pro Trump Riley saying that they weren't going to go down easily.

What does that mean, Josh? What I mean is there is there a lot of security in Washington, d C. And And and is anybody concerned huge security, tons of road closures. No one I know living in Washington is going anywhere near that part of town right now if they don't have to, um, we don't know. Like fighting, Is this like animating language of the Republican Party right now? If you had to, like look for one quality that

people want Republicans, it's fighting. But right now it's sort of performance art more than any sort of out of options. And in particular, Trump looks like he's lost the Senate majority. It's too early to call it, but John Ausus is leading for that because in part, he told people the election was ragged. In other words, the Republican voters in Georgia were told that this is all a sham, it's all ragged, but they should take time to vote anyway.

You can appreciate why some of them. Maybe he didn't do that. And so, I mean, you know, Trump four years ago swept power on the strength of the electoral College. What he's urging people to do today is essentially kneecap the electoral college by cherry picking which states to accept in which states did not. Of course, two years ago

he lost the House. It looks like now he loses the Senate and he is departing message, assuming he actually physically departs the White House is to his supporters that this was all ragged. Josh, how small is the inner circle around the president right now here? Because his behavior obviously is as a relates to the election in the viability the election and has been so odd. I guess is a word can be used, How much support does he still have within the White House? It is unclear.

It's smaller than ever though. I mean, it just seems to a shrunk, you know, by the day, the number of people willing to put their names on statements. Trump put out a pretty explosive statement last night. Didn't even put it out through the White House. He put it out through the campaign. Um, so you know, it looks to be down to just a handful of folks, including rue Di Giuliani, who just spoke at this rally as we wait for President Trump to arrive and talked about

doing trial by combat. So you know, we're using these really loaded language that of course has raised security concerns many of the people attending the rally, addressing sort of like quasi militia type gear. So you know, take that for what it is. But you know, right now, Donald Trump, I think it's an open question as to what his legacy is in the party and the House of Representatives. It seems pretty strong. We're gonna like a hundred or more members of the House object today, and in part

that's because they are scared of primary challenges. Eric Trump, the president's son, threatened yesterday to help primary any Republican Congressman who did not object to the results. Senators, on the other hand, are a little less exposed to primary challenges longer terms early up every six years, and so that's why we're only seeing thirteen Republican Senators object in the same way as supposed to as to say a hundred or more Republican House members. Yeah, that is phenomenal.

I mean, the theater of this is just something else, Josh. But I mean common inauguration night, will that theater all stop? Um? I don't think so Trump as a showman, I mean the official like you know, most very few people think that Donald Trump will still be in the White House, you know, as a the end of January. But he will go down or he's telegraphing at least if you will go down, continuing to say it's rigged, you will

never admit it's not. He's fundraising off of it. He's a mass quite a war chest in his pack from doing so. This will allow him to direct the money more or less whatever he wants politically, including whatever candidate he wants. We will continue to see him flex his muscles,

and you know, we'll see what happens. What the yesterday it might have shown is similar to what two eighteen showed, which is that Trump has his supporters clearly, but when he is not on the ballot physically, like if you know, people aren't showing up to vote for him, they don't show up in the same numbers, and that hurt them yesterday in the runoff, that hurt them in It remains to be seen what that will mean in the mid

terms and heading into four. Of course, the big question is Trump hasn't wanted to talk about four in terms of his own ambitions. Will he run again? This is one of the open ones and so you know, the betting odds kind of depend on who you ask, but that might be the next shoe to draw. The rhetoric from Joe Biden and company will have to be extremely extremely important in the next few days, right, Josh, You know Joe Biden will probably speak more than a very

early in his term president normally would. Yeah. I think in some ways the pandemic will give them a chance to redirect focus. They've said that that is priority number one. We've seen a little bit of waffling actually today on the issue of checks. Remember Joe Biden went to Georgia and told everyone Bover, John Assu and Michael uh Warren, Reverend Warnock, and you will get two checks. And today Warnock is saying that, whereas Biden ally, Chris Coons is

not really saying that. He's saying checks will move more quickly but not necessarily immediately. And John Auso didn't put a dollar value on how much you think people should get when he spoke today. So a little bit of muddied water already beginning. But I think we'll see Biden put a unrelenting focus on the virus early on and maybe hope that that will take the temperature down a little bit. Hey, Josh, we had President George W. Bush announced that he will and his wife will attend uh

the inauguration. What do we know about President Trump? Will he attend? We don't know. And Jim Cliburn Yesterday's want to buy them top allies in Congress said that they're, you know, budgeting for a lot of what if they do not know whether Temple want to go or not go,

they kind of have to plan for both scenarios. One other thing that they don't know really right now is, uh, you know, whether it'll be safe for Biden to, for instance, walk down Pennsylvania Avenue, which is normally you know, what happens during an inauguration. They say Trump might put out a call for a supporters to do what they're doing today, come out and protest, in which case maybe the Secret Service might not love the idea of Bidom walking down Pennsylvania.

So it's all up in the air. But yeah, George W. Bush continuing to send signals to the party on this. He was very early to recognize Biden's victory on November three. Trump, of course, has never done that. He's conceded and now you know, him, thank you'll attend the inauguration. I think it's to sort of move the party past where we're at. And as I say, in the Senate, we're seeing some of that. Right. We've got thirteen or so who are objecting.

That means the vast majority thirty seven whatever it is, or so are not. Many of them are pretty staunch Trump supporters, but they're saying, hey, it's not in the constitution for us to just like pick and choose who we want to win elections. Yeah, I mean, I was just gonna say, an absolute nightmare for the Secret Service preparing for literally every eventuality, so many permutations and combinations. Josh, thank you. I know you'll keep us up to date

throughout the day. That is Josh wind Grove, our White House correspondent who is in Washington, d C. Thanks for listening to Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts or whatever a podcast platform you prefer. I'm Bonnie Quinn. I'm on Twitter at Bonnie Quinn, and I'm Paul Sweeney. I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio