Earnings, the Fed, Credit Suisse, and Midterms (Podcast)

Thank you very much, Silicon Valley. Now we're gonna get in some of the big insurance companies and let's get a preview what we might see. Matt Palozoli, he's a senior analyst covering insurance for Bloomberg Intelligence. He's here in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio because he is a professional. He is in the office. Matt, what do we need to look for here in these big insurance companies. We've got a rising interest rate environment. How does that play

through in the earnings? What that you're gonna be seeing? So for the insurance companies, UH, they make a lot of their income on investment income, So they invest their premiums and UH they get the with the float, and with rising interest rates, they're invested almost and fixed income. So it's kind of just all all upside from here. It's all upside from here. Put then the perspective with the rate hike that you're now potentially seeing, we're looking

at seventy five bases points priced into the market. Walk us through, at least for the people like me who don't know insurance as well as you do, how that actually affects the bottom line for likes of Geico for example. Sure so, uh, Like I said, they get premiums in, they invest them in high quality fixed income and generate investment income. So the average duration of the portfolios is

about four years, so it's not instant. It takes time for the portfolio to run over um, but the investment income goes up, you know, pay taxes on it and go straight to the bottom line. All right, Our good buddy out in Omaha, Nebraska, Warren Buffett, uh Bertrad Hathaway. They're reporting numbers. They do it on a Saturday. First of all, what's up with that? Why did they do it on a Saturday? Paul, You are a cell side analysts like we were, are used to working on the weekend.

They do it on the weekend so that there's kind of no market reaction until one day. I guess they could do it after the close on a day, but they like to do it and give quote, you know, give the market time to digest. So he still does the big rents out the arena and and all the Warren Buffett acolytes go out there to kind of hear him and Mr Munger speak and all that kind of stuff. Is that's still the case. That is the case that happened already, so that that's the annual meeting. That's with

earlier results. So we're just talking third quarter results because there's no no call or anything anything anything there that we should been to look out for. Like I mean, for war Buffet, it's always what are you gonna do with the cash? Where's the next big deal? Now? I know they bought this reinsurance company, Allegheny. They just closed a week or so ago, So that closed that was announced earlier. I don't think they're doing anything big in

the near term. They've been bulking up on Occidental stock, so with the warrants that they have in the ownership already, they have about thirty of the company, and they've got approval to own for my favorite Berkshire Hathaway company because they own a lot in in a massive portfolio into every sector. Sorry, Darry Queen, do they really Yeah? Oh I didn't know that. Okay, well it's not Terry Queen is not my favorite candy mine is. Are you gonna

keep guessing all of the compass? This could take out the rest of the show. BNSF Railway that is I think the most fascinating. When we were covering the rail strike, one of the companies at the heart of the issue was BNSF. Any any thoughts there. It's interesting to me that they're investing more in the kind of occidental BNSF. It's kind of investing stuff, you know. Well, it's very industrials.

It's very it's very warm, Buffett, very wet. So so they have a big energy business besides their investments in Chevron and oxy um so on the insurance analyst. But I know a little bit about railroads. Um. The thing about um their volumes went down this quarter, so they were moving less stuff. But uh, their revenue gets boosted by fuel search arches, right, which seems a little uh paradoxical. But they actually can. Their revenue will go up because

they pass across that that fuel costs. So I think revenue goes up, but volumes were down for Burlington Northern. Hey man, I'm looking at the SMP five Property and casualty insurance sub industry gets level four index. So the insurance stocks have done they're really at perform the market. What's the when you talk to institutional investors today, what are they saying. They are saying, we've kind of made our money, we're done, or we have more room to go.

So I was like coming out of the third quarter, I wasn't I wasn't inspired. Um, these stocks have done well, they're kind of good inflation hedges. Generally for commercial insurance, people have to buy it no matter what. UM. But that story may have played out a little bit through the year. UM the margin outlook is not if anything, it's it's negative revisions going forward. So I can see

why it might have stalled out. What about the impact of Hurricane Ian very quickly, how much damage does that do? That was big? We think about sixty billion dollars for the industry. It's gonna cause Berkshire several billion UM, but very manageable and it might actually re accelerate some pricing. What's the explained to me? The reinsurance business, I'll give

you twenty seconds to reinsurance business is insurance for insurance companies. Uh. It protects you, protects your top layer if you have a giant loss. So you say, okay, if I lose a billion dollars and I want the reinsurance company to take five hundred of it and I pay them a fee. And companies need that, specifically smaller ones in Florida, but everyone can use it as a bit of capital management. And is there any backup for the reinsurer or is

that the government? There's retro reinsurance, which is reinsurance for reinsurance. Do we cover those companies? We cover some of those two most of them sell both of it. All right, gets done at insurance business. All I know is I just it just comes out of my check and I'm like, okay, whatever, I guess I'm insured. I guess I'm covered at the extent of my knowledge of instecturance. Is it so anyway?

Matt Palozola, he knows it a lot better. Thank thankfully, he's a senior annalyst coming the property casualty insurance sector for Bloomberg Intelligence looking at this market here kind of just really not much conviction one way or the other. Uh. Kind of punched on the SP five today. Uh, and we'll see how well we get out of the FED tomorrow. All right. Sam Fazelli, he's in the Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio that is caused for celebration. He's the head of

European Research. He's a pharmaceutical analysts. But the only time Critty we've ever wanted to talk to him over the last three years has been about COVID. But he actually has a day job. He actually does stuff. Yes, he actually has a day job. He's like one of the best pharmaceutical analysts in Europe. Uh, he's been doing it for decades. So now we can get back to just nuts and bolts pharmaceutical analysis. And these are mega companies. They do deals all the time. Another deal got done today.

Let's talk about Sam. Some of the big companies reporting numbers here, So let's talk about Eli, Lily Viser. What are you seeing from some of these big companies. Because they they are global companies, they have to deal with the stronger dollar. UM what are you seeing from some of these big farmer companies. Yes, so all of them are obviously suffering is perhaps the right or wrong phrase,

but suffering from the strength of the dollar. But but you saw that in Viser's case, it didn't really matter because it seems like governments wants to still soak up as much COVID vaccines as possible. So if you look at their beat today and look at their guidance rays which of course has got the stock up about three percent, is pretty much all to do with the community vaccine um and that's through government orders. Let's not forget this is not available to you and I to go and

just buy in the shop. So which vaccine is community? It's called these covid vaccina. Okay, it's a catchy name, community rights better than some random exactly unpronounceable drug names. So that's been what's driving that stock. I mean, the dollar was really not a story for them, of course it is. It is impacted where it's a story for them.

Lily was interesting because the stocks down four it was down a bit more the earliest up and the only reason they missed or they've reduced guidance is because of dollar. Now I would usually see through that, right, Whereas the base business for Lily is amazing. They've done a phenomenal job in bringing new drugs one after the other. And of course today Munjaro is the one that everyone's looking at.

What is actual new diabetes drug with the best efficacy you've ever seen and it also helps you drop twenty pounds. So this is the drug that everyone's figured trying to figure out is it a ten billion or a fifteen or a twenty and some people have got some random numbers out there are a hundred billion market potentially for this. Such best advocacy you've ever seen for diabetes drugs yet interesting phenomenal, phenomenal HD and something science related, So I

guess something sciences. Yes, But that stock poll, if you look at the multiple and you look at how far it's up this year and what the expectations are, I'm not surprised it's giving up a little today, but at the end of the day it is one of the best growth stories, similar to what we also see for astro Centco in Europe across farmer Alright. So when I look at so that that's Lily and we'll get to a big big sector column a second, but fightser with it's got such a big lift in their sales from

the COVID drug. I'm looking at the f A function on the Bloomberg terminal, forty two billion of revenue in exploiting to eight billion, going to a close to a hundred billion this year, and then it drops pretty significantly. So if I'm an investor in Fighter, do I want to be anywhere near a story where I've got revenue declined significant declines. So that's the toughest thing. I've just come off the call, which is still going on, okay, and that is the question what's gonna happen in three Now.

I put my neck on the line saying that I think vaccines are not going to do anywhere near the numbers have done this year next year, partly because I think people are just going to get over the idea.

But they are doing clever things. Are you're combining it with the flu vaccines who just get one shot, and they're talking about pricing which is five or six times higher than numbers that have been charging governments, so you can make up for a lot of volume loss so I don't have to pay for they if I get a COVID shot next year. Next year. I mean, do you mind taking five to one percent of the cash you carry with you and pay you a hundred bucks for it? Probably not no, okay, but but you and

I are not the people who catch for this. Right at the end of the day, you need the volume. And this is the problem that most people have right now. They don't know how to model. They've been saying, look, we'll give you as much of a guy that's possible. We have to wait till the twelfth of December when they have their they have an R and dcoll or

the Endless Day. So okay. Well, speaking of the COVID vaccine, one of the major drivers this morning, at least in the pre market, was rumors that potentially China might be

reconsidering their COVID's real policy. At some point, um tom Orlick a Bloomer Economics came up Bloomber Surveillance and said, the timeline of that is not going to be tomorrow, is not gonna be next week, It's going to be at the early if this is indeed true once again on UH confirmed rumors at the at the moment will be the first quarter of is that the time frame you would agree with. Yeah, I mean, look, the president ge doubled down or the company of the country has

doubled down on the on the zero COVID. The problem they have is you cannot avoid deaths and infections even if you vaccinate the people, because not everybody responds to the vaccine. And also you have a situation where some of the vaccines will never give you the kind of protection that you want, even the ones that we have here.

So whether I don't think that's driving the vaccine names here, because they've had the opportunity to have these vaccines in China for two years, over two years with BioNTech or Moderna, I think the Chinese are likely to be waiting to get something more regional, something that they have made, get that through to the market. So to that end, let

me ask you a science question. Um, can't they just go and get a Visor vaccine, moderna vaccine they've being a Chinese government and scientists and just reverse engineer it and say, hey, we've now got our Chinese vaccine. Yeah, I mean, I don't think it's as easy as that because so there's so many steps involved in this manufacturer. You could try and make something similar to it. But what it will be identical or not? Who knows. I mean even the two vaccines are not identical between fis

it right? Right? All right? So let's step back here. You're talking to your big institutional investor clients all over the world. What are they saying about Big Farmer? Do I buy it as a or is this something that it's already been a nice safe haven for me. I'm going to rotate out into some more maybe cyclical stuff. Yes, So really I want to bounce that back at you. Do you see the cyclical stucks moving? Because if that's the if the day that that people start making that decision.

The defensives, including Parma Industrial, just put up its best month of October since nineteen seventy six, so there was a lot of like Caterpillar had some great numbers last week, you know, and and conversely the big tech companies, uh that I know well had some disappointing numbers. So maybe it's already starting to happen a little bit. Um you know.

I don't know, but I think if I'm a big Farmer, I just think it's such a great place to be because they're big, they're growing um, lots of free cash flow, dividends and things like that. I'm just not sure what's the bear case for Big Farmer is always a part of my portfolio. I think that that pretty much makes sense to me because they have a phenomenal innovation that's going on, which is feeding off the fantastic work that scientists have been doing. That is, that is not the issue.

The thing is, if you're talking five to ten years, there's very little doubt for me that that you need to have some exposure to Farmer because that is, there's always been cash generative. Even if the Inflation Reduction Act eventually bites the way that it's been doing, they have ways of getting away from its impacts. But really, I think this is definitely the case short term trading. Is that for the discussion, what are you drinking in the bordo these days? What did I have? I had a

nice bottle of Villefery. Alright, two thousand and one sounds good to me. San Fazelli had of European Economic Research, Bloomberg Intelligence. All right, let's talk banks. Pretty We love talking banks and big global banks. We've seen some pretty solid numbers out of most of them. Uh, certainly the U S banks, But I want to break it down a little bit. I also want to talk about Credit Swiss my former employer, Alison Williams, senior global banks analysts. Also,

what's the latest on Credit Swiss here? I mean yet another restructuring here. I kind of hear some M and A noise out there? What's the latest? Yeah, it's interesting. I mean I'm not I'm not sure why the M and A noise is surfacing today when they've you know, sort of made their announcements. They've they've already made the choice to UM dilute the current shareholders, shore of capital and sort of move on. And I think it's going

to be a tough slog for the bank from here. UM. But you know, if if not now, I'm not sure when I guess if you will on on M and A. UM. I think that just given it a restructuring and things are chopping, maybe there continues to be UM noise around the bank. But I think that a lot of the rumors that sort of get circulated are UM. You know, it would be very difficult to come through fruition. So for example, credit suits combining with any other major bank,

you know, there's the regulation. The regulations, especially involving crossboater regulations would really make it. Um, you know, it's not impossible, but close to that, Alison. I heard an analogy this morning, I believe I Charlie Wells over our London office, and he kind of said the way the buyers may be looking at credit sweez or potential buyers, I should say, was kind of like going into a suit shop and really just going to buy a tie, but then ending

up buying the whole suit. Is that the way to think about this? I mean, I think that you're maybe one step farther than that today. Um, you know that I think that was the case. And why uh, you know, going sort of going into the announcement and so much speculation about what will they keep, what will they get

rid of, what will they keep? You know? Um, but I think what what they sort of made clear is that you know, they're finally stepping away from some businesses that you know are not you know, adjacent to the chie. So you need you need a shirt and a collar to wear with the tie. Maybe the shirt is very integral with how the tide looks, but who cares about the pants? The pants are something that you wear but

don't really impact how the tide looks. And so some of the businesses that they are getting rid of, the Security chie Product Group for example. You know, it's a great profitable business over time, but it tends to have its its worst performance in bad time, so that you know, always, uh, is not good to to sort of be made more that vulnerable and it really has nothing to do with their core wealth business. So you know, moving that out,

moving ownership of that out. You know that it's still not finalized in terms of what the terms are going to be. I think those are kind of the things that people are waiting on, um. But I think they are you know, really trying to take a bigger step to hone the one the focus. We hear this from. You know, we've been hearing this from you know, banks like Deutsche Bank and Credit Suites for for multiple years.

Deutsche Bank finally made the tough move, got rid of equities trading, focused on what they're good at, finally getting some benefit from the environment. Things are working out for them, um,

you know, Credit Suites finally making some tougher choices. Like I said that the business is good, and I think that's why they didn't want to move away from it, but they really had to focus on, you know, protecting the core at this point, Alison, just real quick thirty seconds the Saudi National Bank now it's Credit Swiss as the bankrucy pushed back from the U S or Swiss governments on this. You know, there's there's obviously a lot

of headlines around it. I'm not gonna go down that path, but um, you know that that's certainly something that's gotten intention in terms of who the shareholder is. Yeah, it's interesting to see how that plays out. But I guess at this point Credit Swiss needs the capital, uh and they know the Saudi National Bank. So good to get an update on Credit Swiss. Always seems to be in

the in the news here today. Alison Williams, senior bank analyst for Bloomberg Intelligency is based in our Princeton office. Jolts numbers can be hire expected. We also had some ECO data coming out of the I s M kind of showing can continued I guess slow down in some of the manufacturing sector from the prior month. So all this, I guess adds up for the market saying hey, this fed you can keep raising rates. Here a little bit here to about that, So, lindsay, Pegsa. She does this

for a living. She's the chief economist managing director at Stephle. So lindsay, again, some eco data today that seems to give maybe the Fed some more cover to continue to raise rates. How how do you think the next twenty four hours you're going to play out for our freed to reserve. Well, I think, as you mentioned, the decision this week is pretty much already baked into the cake,

or baked into market expectations. The bigger question is how does the Fed frame the economic outlook for future policy adjustments, particularly as we come up with that final December summary

of economic projections. Now, the Fed has consistently revised higher its forecast for rates and inflation by nearly two basis points, and I do expect that, given the backdrop of a still solid labor market, a five decade low in the unemployment rate, and a near four decade high and inflation, the Fed will continue to revise higher expectations beyond what the market is anticipating in terms of that terminal rate

come twenty twenty three. Well, lindsay, if you're starting to see the market really hit consensus, which I want to say they did a couple of weeks ago, really, and all these investment banks are just now catching up. Cough cough Goldman. But I have to ask about why you're seeing so much bond market volatility. Then if the consensus is tomorrow fifteen December, February in March, well, it could

be that the market consistently underestimates inflation. We look at the Bloomberg data and we see that forecasts are typically about fifty to even a hundred basis points below the reality of inflation. And looking right now, we're well above what the Fed anticipated would be the year end level of prices, and even further above, of course, the FEDS

two target range. So it may be that the market is more looking at what it hopes to happen as opposed to what the Fed will need to do to realistically rain in price pressures, which, if we take the Fed at their word, they say that is their primary turn right now, their primary focus, willing to take more pain now in order to ensure longer run price stability

for the economy. The bedrock, as German Powell tells us, of the economy, lindsay what's your recession and call here and a lot of folks are just wondering as are going to happen? Be how long will it be? See how deep wi it be? How do you frame that for your clients? Well, I think it's a pretty difficult outlook for the economy at this point. Should the Fed remain on this more aggressive pathway? I think a recession

is all but ensured. But that being said, I do think the consumer is starting from a relatively stronger position than in previous cycles, and so we may have a bit more leeway or a bit more stability on the part of the consumer going forward, still at very low levels,

but still in positive territory. That translates to me to a prolonged period of negative activity, but very minimal negative activity through before potentially getting back into a more robust position of economic strength as we come out in Lindsay, I've been asking all the guests this. You specifically mentioned how the commodities trade is perhaps baked into the market.

Is it worth reconsidering the market consensus given that we have a potential windfall tax on oil companies that historically has shown to halt production, or I should at least stymy it and put make prices higher. At the same time, you have issues in the grains market. When it comes to Ukraine, we're talking about peak inflation being in the rare view mirror. But can we be sure of that? Oh, absolutely not. I think the risk to inflation is certainly

to the upside. You talk about windfall taxes, international conflict, political and certainty overseas. All of these factors leave a lot of question marks when we talk about the longer term trajectory of agricultural commodity energy costs, all playing into how that's going to affect broader based inflation here in

the US. So the notion that we're going to see this nice, steady downward trajectory of prices allowing the FED too nice and neatly back off from rate increases, that seems a bit too easy, if you will, and certainly premature relative to what we're seeing in terms of market volatility. So I am not quite on board yet that the worst of that the scenario in terms of price pressures is behind us. Lindsay, what's your call on the consumer here? We're going to obviously get some jobs data on Friday.

How resilient is this is this consumer in your mind going forward? Well, I do think the consumer has a certain number of variables are adding that are adding temporary support. Consumers are increasingly willing to eat through the remaining savings that they have. They've also been benefited by some additional state and local stimulus that has come down the pipeline, with nearly a dozen states or large governments to the

large cities implementing another round of direct payments. We also see consumers increasingly turn learning to credit card debts or other sources of debt to supplement their spending. So all of these factors together have been able to provide some temporary support that is likely to linger for some time, maybe one to three months, maybe longer. Now it's certainly

not enough to provide robust consumer activity. We're not talking about four or five six percent growth, but we are still talking about positive activity in the range of one to two percent real spending, which should be enough to help provide again at least a floor to economic growth as we fall back into negative territory presumably in the fourth quarter. All right, lindsay, really good stuff, really really appreciate getting your time, your perspective. That's Lindsay Peza, chief

economist and managing director over at Stifle. Well, we're a week away from mid term elections. There's several key states that have some competitive races, and that's obviously going to have an impact on control of the House and Senate. One of the swing votes, or one of the areas that you know these politicians are trying to attract, is the labor vote. So we want to get a sense of how that might break. So we welcome Kip Iberg, Senior vice president of Government and Industry Relations for the

Association of Equipment Manufacturers. Kim, thanks so much for joining us here. I guess it's my working assumption that labor typically supports the Democratic Party. Is is that generally true? And is that expected to be true here in these midterms? Well, thanks for having me on, Paul, and and it might have been true once upon a time, but it is

h not true today. And and in fact, the manufacturing vote, the labor vote, as you refer to it, is very much up for swing with one week out to the election, and what our industry are looking for two point eight million voters is concrete proposals from candidates up and down the ballot on how to write are economic ship, how to get the economy back up and running, and how to make sure that our industry, manufacturing, US manufacturing continue

to drive the US economy. So, Kip, there was a lot of, I guess discussion that during the beginning of pandemic about reassuring or on shoring some of the manufacturing that had been off short and we really felt the pain when China shut down, for example, and we couldn't get you know, chips and things like that. Is that something that your members feel like it's a reality. Can some of that manufacturing be brought back to the US.

It can? And And to address your your first point, you know, we recently surveyed hundred top manufacturing CEOs and they said that there is still an urgent need to boast American competitiveness by addressing supply chain challenges still labor shortages, and trade and balances. And if you do not address those three things, it's going to continue to be difficult for you as manufacturers to make things in America, you know,

in a competitive way. And so we have seen some great improvements since the pandemic, but we are still not back, Paul, to where we were in late and you know the only way to do that is to again invest in the American work or right shore up our supply chains.

We've seen some progress through some legislation that Congress passed earlier this year, the Chips Act at the Oceanship were formact, but you know, supply chains are still squishy, uh, And you know we still have you know, shortages of skilled labor, and you know we're still dealing with tariffs. So all those three things are opportunities for candidates out on the stump right now, you know, to talk to voters about

how they plan to address that. And unfortunately we're still seeing a whole lot of polemics and not enough policy. What about the f X picture of it, There seems to be a lot of questions about whether or not it actually makes sense to have a lot more near shoring or manufacturing if there is still this long term bowl case for the dollar. How does FEX play into

all of this? But that's a that's a great question creating and I think look, anytime you can locate, in our case, suppliers close to the manufacturing operations, that's always going to be good news for our industry and for US manufacturing as a whole. And I think the one lesson that we've learned certainly as an industry coming out of the pandemic is that, you know, there's been a lot of advantages to global supply chains over the years in terms of competitive pricing and being able to source

components from from different markets. So if one market is down, you can pivot easily to another one. But that only works if we can actually move goods seamlessly, you know, from one part of the world to another, and I think right now the jury on whether we can continue to do so it's still out. So we are very much looking as an industry at how can we both the relationships with suppliers more locally, whether it's down the road, whether it's you know, within the state, or whether it's

within the country. And French shoring certainly you know, placed into that as well, but particularly with the sort of geopolitical realignment that we're seeing right now, what going on Ukraine,

questions about China are the long term partner. You know, more and more of our industries looking to move operations, whether it's you know, manufacturing or suppliers from you know, Asia, from other parts of Eastern Europe, Russia, back to the US or back to friendly countries where we had long term strategic relationships with kept talking us about the labor

situation in your industry among your members. Here we here just time and time again from companies across the economic spectrum and many different industries that it's just really really difficult to attract and retain talent. How's it in your industries? Well, looking at the next decade, Paul, we're facing up to depending on again on obviously on the economic outlook for our industry, but we could be facing a shortage of up to a million UH, skilled laborers in our industry.

And you know, as you're trying to get back to where we were before the pandemic. And by the way, I should say demand for many of our members products, it's through the roof. Many of them have all sold out all their inventory for next year. UH. And the only way that we can continue to to expand and to capitalize on strong demand is through you know, the skilled labor force. And it's just not there. And and this is a big problem not just for our industry

but for US manufacturing. Not enough young people want to explore careers in manufacturing and we've got to figure this out as a country. How do we put a premium on skilled labor, on learning a trade versus you know, going through a four year you know, college degree. It is not for everyone, and you know, if we pursue that path, we're going to continue to be in a world of hurt. So you're you you represent a trade group that represents off road heavy equipment manufacturers across North America.

So would an example be a Caterpillar or a Deer or something like that. Yeah, that's correct. We have a thousand member companies ranging from those two that you just mentioned all the way down to a lot of small family owned companies that make both equipment and parts. So is that I mean in terms of feeling that labor need, is that you know, you know, may be increasing support for trade schools or just the trades within the high school situation, because we hear the same thing from lots

of other industries, whether it's a transportation industry or others. Yeah, it's it's all above right, It's it's more support, more investment in community coologists, in trade schools, um in apprenticeship program we our industry has had some success with that, but we need more of it. But I think it's also shift uh in in people's outlook on education, what it means to have a good education. And I think you know, what was true two decades, three decades, four

decades ago is no longer true. You can have a great career in manufacturing our industry past above the national average UM, and you can get a job right now, Paul, if you walked into a member company and you said you wanted to become a welder, they will train you while paying your full salary and benefits, and you will have a guarantee job after a year when you know how to well. I mean, those are the kinds of jobs that we need to create more of in this country.

All right, Kip, good stuff. They're appreciate getting your perspective there. Kip Idberg a senior vice president Government and industry Relations for the Association of Equipment Manufacturers again the off road heavy equipment that's across North America. Again, they have over one thousand company members across two product lines, so they represent a pretty big swath of the labor force in industrial America. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast.

You can subscribe and listen to interviews with Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter at Matt Miller three. Put on fall Sweeney I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio