The Brexit vote on Bloomberg Radio. Polls close at ten pm in Britain. That is now and the future Britain's relationship with the European Union though, will not be known until at least nine hours from now. That's at seven am tomorrow morning on Friday, and of course there are no exit polls and the results so will come in during a three period three hour period on Friday between four am and seven am, so by breakfast time the
results of the European Union referendum should be known. Here to tell us more is a leading economist, Danny blanche Flower, Professor of Economics at Dartmouth College. He is also a former member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England. He can be followed on Twitter at d underscore blanch Flower. Danny blanch Flower. Thank you for being with him. Well interesting day, goodness me go ahead give to your thoughts. Well. My thoughts are that the markets
are clearly expecting a Remain vote. They saw polls over the last few days. Ten of the last fifteen have been for Remain. But we've seen big surprises in UK polling. They're hoping that it looks like the Scottish referendum, which in the end people turned out for the status quo. But the memory is a year ago. Um. They the predictions in the polls for the election outcome were very bad and obviously the markets and everybody else in economic
terms anyway, is assuming that remain will come. The worry is actually that if Brexit actually is in the majority, this would be a surprise to the markets and that would likely generate major market turmoil. It would seem to me, not least the pound. And that's the reason why contingency planning in Britain, banks and around the world that is about to swing into gear as we wait for for the results. This is this is our a mentor's day. I would say, why was this vote so close? Danny
blanche Fower? You know, year six months ago, maybe Ben three or four months ago. Oh Brexit, Yeah, I guess we're gonna start talking about it and then suddenly Brexit. What happened? Well? Um, interesting? I think it's an interesting question. I think actually it's a continuation of the hurt that people have seen from the Great Recession. People are not
happy with the status quo. I guess a number that I often kind of look at is If you look at the GDP per capita in the UK today compared with the start of the recession in two thousand and eight, it's up one in total. Real wages are really still below what they were in two thousand and eight, and there has been a major in looks of people from the rest of your Immigration has risen rapidly. Many of the issues in the US have repeated in the UK.
They've seen the flood of immigrants coming and they've also seen the poor performance of the European economy. France has a temper cent unemployment rate, We've still got twenty odd in Spain, in Greece, and people think, you know, we want our own sovereignty. We don't want to be stuck with these Europeans. Is a losing game, and so we've ended up seeing something very close. Um, I'm not sure that I that I would have predicted was quite as
close as this. Quite so difficult to to cool given that term, if you like, the status quo has thrown everything it has at it. Danny Blancheflower, why did the Prime Minister David Cameron promised to hold this referendum? I think it's a really great question for him. I think he's gonna obviously regret it to this very moment. And obviously if Brex had come, he's gone tomorrow, and if it's very narrow he may actually be gone as well. I think the reality was that there was continuous infighting
within the Tory Party. It's interesting he managed to get himself The good news was he got himself a twelve seat majority last May. But that turns out that he was vulnerable to views from the euroskeptics within his own party. And so what's interesting, I think is that the the in fighting, particularly for this vote is actually greater than it was at the election, more particularly between people within the same party. So I think the answer was it
was called for internal political reasons. It was certainly not something that placed like Northern Ireland and Scotland and Wales were really looking for it to if you like, it's a sort of internal English issue within the within the Tory party. But presumably David Cameron didn't think relate your last question. He didn't think it was going to go down to the wire and he'd be sitting in Downing
Street watching these results biting his fingernails. Well, the latest UGO of UK pull on Brexit, the UK leaving the European Union shows a vote of to remain to leave. This is being reported by Sky News, So again a narrow victory. So we could go back and forth, what if what if they leave? What if they stay? But regardless of whether they stay or leave, what does this mean for the UK going forward? What does it mean for the current government? Do they have to make changes?
They can't. I guess you can't really adjust this one. It's not like all we can boost economic growth, right, or trying to raise prices like a central bank. Well, let's let's just sort of separate the economics at the moment, because obviously if there's a Brexit vote, we're going to have to talk about what the bank aving and would have to do, and global repercussions and so on. Let's think of the politics. I mean, I certainly think it's
back to Pim's question. I certainly think if there's a Brexit vote, David Cameron called this vote there, I'm going to try and renegotiate Cam back and say we should remain. If if the vote is not to remain, that then that's a then politically he's gone, and presumably the Chancellor is gone. So that's a political crisis, I would say,
particularly from a Brexit point of view. But I think there's still a major political issue, which is that supposing the vote is pretty close, which we sort of think it's probably going to be. I don't think it's going to be sixty forty when he could be, but I suspect no polls have shown that if it's a pretty done close vote, then Cameron is going to find it extremely hard with a twelve vote majority to pass anything or perhaps even to be able to remain as leaders.
So a political crisis is probably the thing that's on the table the most assume. But obviously there's the economics we can talk about. Just to reiterate that, the you gov the Appolling Service reports that the UK pole on the European Union shows fifty remain and forty eight percent leave. Danny blanch Fower one thing that I found particularly interesting
was who is able and eligible to vote? If you're a British, Irish or Commonwealth citizen and you're over the age of eighteen and registered in the United Kingdom, you can vote. Well, that's true, but actually I fit that criteria, but in fact I wasn't able to vote because I think you had to have been lived in the UK as well for the last for the last ten years fifteen actually last fifteen years. But I actually didn't get to vote. So I tried and I looked and they said, sorry,
Blanche Flower, that you don't get to vote. Um, yes, so so people people who lived there. I think there were issues particularly about the say people who live abroad. I mean there's a big issue here, which is that there are three million people from Europe living in Britain who who probably don't get the vote, and there's two million people who are Britas who live in Europe. And it was I don't recall, I don't think they get the voto. Others may may tell me differently, unless you're
from Ireland, Malta or a Cyprus. And I also found interesting that the Commonwealth citizens in Gibraltar are able to vote as are members of the House of Lords, and they are not necessarily allowed to vote in the general election. Right.
And David Cameron apparently was headed to Gibraltar to give a speech the other day when there was the terrible assassination of a British empty and he and he didn't actually go there, and we should talk about that that in a sense that that that terrible political it was highly political event. It certainly appears that the polls were moving towards Leave and then there was that event and
both parties pulled out, stopped campaigning any any further. And since that moment, it does look that the remain has moved to the ascent. And I'm not saying that that's you know, that that's been the driving force, but it it does seem that that was a turning moment when when the British people were totally shocked. I wonder Danny event as as a vote as a doesk settles on this vote, Let's say that the remains when I wonder, you know, where the focus turns next to people look
at the economy again? Do they look at what are the what are the grapes of the British people they're faced with? That's a great question, Kathleen. I mean, my my view, as you know, over time has been the growth of the UK economy has been a major issue. We've seen very palled growth and it certainly appears that
actually there's been some slowing um. The Monetary Policy Committee is has argued that that about half the slowing perhaps is because of the fear of Brexit, and so that's just if that's right and there isn't a Brexit, that actually there may be some turning back and some improvement, but all right, public Danny Blanchfare, thanks so much. This is Bloomberg Radio.