Global business news twenty four hours a day. If Bloomberg dot Com, the radio plus mobile lap and on your radio. This is a Bloomberg Business Flash from Bloomberg World Headquarters. I'm Charlie Pellett. The Dow, the SMPNAZ, DAC all lower stocks sliding in a broad sell off. This update brought to you by weather Tech, car mats and floor liners.
Stocks are lower right now, with the SMP five hundred index falling nine points to two thousand thirty eight, a drop of five tenths of one percent, NAZ Stack down thirty two points, a decline of seven tenths of one percent, and the down Jones Industrial Average is down ninety three points, a drop of five tenths of one percent. The tenure of to thirty seconds that yield one point eight four percent.
Gold down nine ten the ounce to twelve fifty five thirty a dropped there of one and a half percent. Crew down seven cents. The barrel forty twelve right now on West Texas Intermediate that is a drop of point two percent. So again recapping another sell off for stocks with the SMP down nine, drop of five tenths of one percent. I'm Charlie picton that's a Bloomberg business flash. You're listening to Taking Stock with Kathleen Hayes and Pim
Fox on Bloomberg Radio. The consumer, What is the consumer think about the future of the economy. What is the Conference Boards Leading Economic Index for the United States? What is it telling us? What we have? Ken Goldstein to tell us he's the economist for the Conference Board, and he joins us, now, thank you very much for being here. Ken, give us the update the Conference Board Leading Economic Index l EI for the United States. It's it's up, and
it's up again. And not only is the lead up, but in some sense more important to coincident, because that's what tells us where we are right now. After no change last month in April, that's back up. So, in other words, the measure belt where the economy is right now is telling us we continue to chuggle along, and the lead is telling us expect more of this at least through the summer, maybe even into the fall. The economy is not, you know, way picking up, but it
certainly is not losing steam. That maybe one reason why bonds are rallying. Leading Economic Index contains how many hours are worked in manufacturing, the jobless claims, new orders of various kinds, building permits obviously another leading indicator for housing stock prices. Investors are betting where they think things are going. Uh. That we've got the interest rate spread uh to give
us some sense of the credit markets are saying. So all of this is but you're missing you're missing the most I'm not the most important one, but but you know, to follow onto the earlier question, one of the measures here is about overall confidence, not just consumer confidence, overall confidence. Um. And it's been one of the you know, sort of you know, lagging behind the rest of the interview, very
volatile lately. But that's different from being steadily down. So there's been a change over the last six twelve months there in terms of confidence. People are anxious. They're a little bit more solid about way the economy is it right now, but they're a little bit you know, worried about where things are good going to go, what's the next shoe that's going to hit the floor. That's part of the reason why until April you didn't see that big pickup in retail sales. We might you know, unless
that was just a one month bounce. We might be starting to see some of that, a little bit more spending, a little bit less saving because people are a little bit less concerned about the bottom falling out. Ken Golds team, you, I'm sure read the report having to do with the Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes for April. The context is they will raise rates at a future meeting if the economic data continues to come in as it has
given today's report. I know it's incomplete. Be given today's report, if you had to decide whether the Federals are would raise interest rates, which way would you come down in July? Why is that? Because I don't think that they're going to do it right before the Brexit vote in June. So July, which is early enough to get away from our own election, but but you know, soon enough in order to move not to tighten, but to go back to this normalizing program that they've been trying to get
on for so long. So if I had a bet right now, I would bet on exaggerator on Saturday and on the Fed raising in July. Okay, well that would be exciting Saturday. The Preakness. Now, well, let me ask you this um in terms of the economy has your view changed ially when you look at on what growth rate we're going to have shaking his head there, you've been saying something around what two to two and a half?
Two to two and a half, and I think, you know, might even be closer to two perhaps, but you know that has been the view now for maybe the last two years. So that the statistics, at least the gd PEACE statistics bounce a little bit, you get much less bounce out of the labor market. And so one of the questions is which do you really rely on GDP your jobs? I think jobs is a better measure um And again, I mean it's not telling us things are going to pick up dramatically, but certainly that the bottom
is not falling out. And I think that even the consumer is beginning to relax a little bit that the bottom is not gonna fall out, that if they signed a contract to make thirty six car loan payments, at the bottom is going to fall out in the middle of that. Tell me about stock prices, because we're trading in this range and I'm wondering what. I wonder what people take away. Well, with some some exceptions that may
have frightened people to death, Tell us. What this tells you, well, what it tells me is that, you know, earnings haven't been very good this earning season. We saw this coming and I don't think that this is a one earning season phenomena. I think that you know, we're in for several of these, and I think that the stock prices are beginning to reflect that. But again, it's not that the bottom is falling, but just that things are may
not get much better. They're not going to get that much worse, not for the economy, not for the job market, not for the stock market. Of course, the bob market got hit pretty hard. As I saidgested, people obviously were not positioned for a FED that was this what they considered hawkers. Right today, bonds doing doing a little bit
better as as stocks sell off a bit. I want to ask you the global question, because you know very well kN it seems people who are opposed to the FED raising rates now and think it's a mistake, is that the global economy is still soft, you know, still have negative rates around the world. What is your view of the potential linkage and and if if there's some worry there, well, there is some worry there that you
know that growth is not quickening across the globe. It is in certain places, you know, uh, and in some other places China, for example, maybe it's beginning to soften. But India is very strong, UM Africa, Latin America commodity producers, both in terms of prices and in terms of what that means for their economy. So again, you know, even if we look at the globe, it is not as
if everything is beginning to implode on itself. And and because that's the case, and there even are some bright spots, this might be the time to just do not you know, a fifty point or seventy five point move, but maybe a twenty point move, and then do another one after the election, both for the domestic economy and for the global economy. Can Goldstein betting on exaggerated? All right? I
can hardly wait. Thank you so much for joining us today from the New York based a conference board to look at the growth in leading economic indicators and what it needs for the economy. This is Bloomberg Radio coming up on taking Stock. After a week of dismal earnings reports and forecasts from retailers, Walmart stores and other chains, delivered some upbeat news in the past twenty four hours. We're gonna give you the details