Conference Board's Franco on the June CCI Report (Audio)

at the conference Sport. I'm Kathleen Hayes, my co host Pim Fox on vacation this week, and that investor confidence, confidence in the stock market battered by the volatility from Brexit. How about the impact of the presidential race and the odds of who wins and who doesn't. What does that mean about investing in the capital markets? What does it mean for the broader global economy. We're gonna be think about all that and more in the next half hour.

Now we're gonna be hearing from Catherine Caddie. She is in the newsroom with a bloom Brick business flash. Thank you, Kathleen. Well, the stock market is climbing for the first time since

Britain voted to withdraw from the European Union. There's speculation that policy makers will take steps to limit any economic fallout the UK's decision last week twigger to rush towards safe Hagan's Global Equities lost about three point six trillion dollars in market value and the smp FA under tumbled five point Mark Hayfully, Global Chief Investment Office for at

UBS Wealth Management, makes the case for diversification. We've had political uncertainty before these events, and we'll have them after. I think the main point for investors is that as we go further out into these experimental central bank policies and referendums, you have to be diversified. Diversified across political economic regimes in the world. We check the markets every

fifteen minutes throughout the trading day. Down industrial average is of one hundred forty six point seven eights of a percent. Trading at seventeen thousand, two hundred eighty six, smp F I founded up twenty one points, a gain of one percent. It's trading at two thousand, twenty one nasac hire by

sixty seven points one and a half percent. Trading at forty six sixty one West Texas Center via crude oil up a dollar fifty five of barrel three point three percent to forty seven eighty nine spout bill down six dollars ninety sents announced to thirteen seventeen eighty ten year treasury down six thirty seconds with the yield of one

point four five percent. Among today's top business stories, Volkswagen has agreed to spend more than fifteen billion dollars to get hundreds of thousands of emissions cheating diesel vehicles off at US roads into playcate regulators. And now let's get a look at some of the other stories were following. I'm Bloomberg Radio. Thank you Catherine from the Bloomberg newsroom. I'm Julie Hyman. British Prime Minister David Cameron met with fellow European Union leaders today for the first time since

last week's vote to leave the EU. Cameron says the UK may be breaking up with Europe, but he hopes they'll continue to do good business. I very much hope will seek the closest possible relationship in sums of trade and cooperation and security, because that is good for US. And that is good for them, and that's the spirit to wish the discussions I think will be held today.

The British PM has indicated the UK could wait until October to begin the process, but European lawmakers are calling for an immediate exit as they try to call markets and prevent other countries from following suit. Scottish EU member Alan Smith says Scotland voted to remain in the EU and wants to keep it that way. Scotland did not let you down. Please, I thank you, chaper do not let Scotland turned no. Well. Many greeted Smith's remarks with

a standing ovation. UK Independence Party leader Nigel Farage, who had campaign for Brexit, remained seated. The winning is coach in Division one college basketball history has died. Former Tennessee coach Pat's Summit was sixty four years old. She had been battling dementia sum at one eight national championships. The city's rent Guidelines Board voted last night in favor of a monthly increase for stabilized apartments. The board approved to freeze for one year leases and a two percent increase

on two year leases. Neither side was happy. Tenants were looking for a rent rollback, while landlords wanted increases on both one and two year leases. Global News twenty four hours a day, powered by more than twenty undred journalists and analysts in more than one hundred and twenty countries from the Bloomberg Newsroom. I'm Julie Hyman. This is Bloomberg, Catherine, Thank you, And now let's get a quick check of

the equity markets. Down Industrial laverage of one hundred sixty nine points at seventeen thousand, three hundred nine smp F I founded up twenty three point at two thousand, twenty four. NASDAC higher by seventy three trading at forty six sixty seven. And that's a Bloomberg business flash. You're listening to taking stock with pin Box at Kathleen As on Bloomberg Radio. As Federal Reserve officials and investors who are bullish in

the stock market continue to keep their fingers crossed. Where a consumer that were power the US economy to a higher rate of growth in the second quarter, a higher rate of growth in the second half. The focus is on consumer confidence today, very closely watched number from the conference board here in New York. It climbed to in June from a revised nine two point four in May. And there are some good signs within the report suggesting

the consumers are feeling pretty good about the future. Here now to explain what's in the report, what it means we're spending for the economy. And Moore is Lynn Franco. She is Director of Economic Indicators at the Conference Board. Thanks for coming into daily and you're quite welcome. So there's two sub components. There's the present condition, what's going on in the economy now, and what do you expect for the future. How did those two indexes or indicase

should I say, shake out? Well, we had a rebound in both, which is always good news in terms of the present situation. What we saw really was not so much sort of enhanced optimism as sort of a decline into pessimism a little bit sort of. I guess I would say we're consumers saying we're still cruising along more or less at the same speed. In terms of their expectations, they're cautiously more optimistic. We even had to bump up an income and I think that will bolde well for

spending in the quarters to come. In fact, let's underscore that consumer expectations gauge looking at the next six months. UH. People are are are pushing that part to eighty four point five from seventy eight point five, and many condoms that I've spoken to say that if there is a one part of this report that correlates well to spending

even more than present conditions, it's the expectations index. When you get a bump like that, it supports those who are saying, no, consumers, consumers doing a bit better now, right, And I think, you know, we're all sort of anticipating the second quarter consumer expenditure figures, which showed I think a bump up and consumers ending, and I think the fact that we see income expectations increasing now and it's you know, back to back two months, I think, you know, consumers,

I mean, there's still gonna be a little cautious and they're spending decisions, but I think we're going to continue to see spending help boost GDP. Well, of course that's very important, isn't Because you're alluding to we did get the latest number on first one fact, to get the final one in the first quarter GDP number, UH, it was revised up to one point one percent from zero

point eight. However, the all important personal consumption expenditures basically people, that's all the stuff you spend money on, was revised down to one and a half percent from one point nine percent. So all the more focused now on what's going on in the second quarter. Of course, June is the last month of the second quarter, right right, And I think early estimates are that we've had a nice

bump up in the second quarter. Um. And so I think our you know, income expectations is running parallel to what we expect to see there. And you know, it just remains to see what happened, if there's any fall at with Brexit, if it calls any type of pullback and expectations, even though it might be very temporary. We've seen the market at least begin to bounce back today, so that's good news. UM. So that might be sort of a little headwind that confidence may face in the

next month or so. Labor market, the big the key question is our jobs are more plentiful, are the same or hard to get a little bit of mixed back there too, Yes, And I think that's because we've seen a slow down and employment growth and some of our other indicators show that that's going to persist. I think it's still be enough to support confidence levels. And we're seeing you know, ways growth as well, so that will

help support confidence and consumption. As you oversee the Conference boards US Consumer Confidence report, I know you're also watching

consumer confidence around the world. What does the Conference Board expect to see in the UK when it comes to consumer confidence when it comes to business confidence, one can only imagine that once you do the surveys after the vote, you could have some gigantic drops a lutely, and I think any time that you have uncertainty, that impacts both you know, consumer confidence and business confidence much more pronounced obviously in Europe than it is right here in the

United States. So I think we're sort of okay for the time being. We'll see, obviously confidence both consumer and business take a hit, probably in in the euro Area and in the UK as well as for the US survey UM buying plans. What stands out to from that part of the survey. I think we're sort of moving a little bit sideways there. I mean, you know, we

do have sort of our month to month fluctuations. However, I think we're a little bit stronger than we were last year, and I think that's directly due to the housing market. We continue to see improvements there, and obviously if consumers buy a home, they have to furnish a home. So I think the outlook for that particular area remains quite positive. Know, the Federal Reserve watches this survey, this report very closely. Uh what what do you think they'll

be taking away from this? No chance of rate hike this year is now at the markets, and there's now that people are on the fringes starting to talk about a right cut. Right. I think what we're gonna see is no rate increases this year. If anything, the earliest would be December. But with all the all the uncertainty that's evolved over the last week or so, I don't think the Fed is going to raise anytime soon. Maybe you should do a survey just of Fed officials, get

their get their confidence index. That would be quite interesting, Okay, I think it would do well. Lynn Frankel, you work on that, Okay. Well, she's director of Economic Indicators at the Conference Board based here in New York City. June consumer confidence sitting an eight month high and says it's

it's steadily moving along. No big move towards a higher level of confidence, but high enough to ensure pretty much or at least suggest that spending could hold up in the second quarter and do better than the first quarter. I'm Cathleen Hayes pim Fox on vacation this week, so I'm taking stock today right here on Bloomberg Radio. The presidential race. If Donald Trump wins, what does that mean for the stock market? Off Hillary Clinton winds? What does

that mean? Ken Fisher had of Fisher investments? Coming up now on Bloomberg Radio.