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Citi, Alphabet, and Munis

Dec 15, 202337 min
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Episode description

Sally Bakewell, US Finance Team Lead with Bloomberg News, discusses Citigroup shutting down its once high-flying muni unit. Maria Pope, CEO at Portland General Electric (NYSE: POR), joins to discuss her industry and outlook for her company in 2024. Alex Petrone, Director of Fixed Income at Rockefeller Asset Management, joins to discuss muni bonds, muni market liquidity, investor demand, and credit risks. Jennifer Rie, Senior Litigation Analyst: Antitrust with Bloomberg Intelligence, joins to discuss the Alphabet antitrust loss from earlier this week, what it means for Apple, and other cases to watch. Hosted by John Tucker and Bailey Lipschultz.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcript

Speaker 1

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Speaker 2

Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney alongside my co host Matt Miller.

Speaker 1

Every business day we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along with essential market movin news.

Speaker 2

I'm the Bloomberg Markets podcast called Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and at Bloomberg dot com Slash podcast.

Speaker 3

A lot going on across Wall Street. One of the things that's going on, in particular to City Group, the company is shutting down. It's muni business that was once the envy of rivals, and right now to discuss that. We are going to be talking with Bloomberg Finance team leader Sally Bakewell, who has been leading the coverage all over everything developing with City. Sally just kind of give us a thirty thousand foot look of what this means

for City Group. As our CEO, Jane Fraser, still continues to reshape the company in its operations.

Speaker 4

Right, well, it means a lot of this City Group and it means a lot for the muni market there because City had really dominated that four trillion space of underwriting local and state debt for most of the past decade. In fact, it ranked among the two biggest of municipal bond underwriters by volume. It's been on deals like the rebuilding of the World Trade Center, on rebuilding the portal

authorities of New York and New Jersey. But as City has struggled in recent years through a number of issues and including it sort of ability to deliver returns and meet financial goals. And so Jane Fraser, who has been at the helm for a number of years, her border aim is to make City a bank that you know serves large multinational corporations but also improves returns which have been trailing. So I think the muni business became incompatible

with that goal for a number of reasons. I think a big one being that Hexas is the biggest state for muni bond sales. But City, owing to firearms policies, got frozen out of a number of big deals there and that did crimp a lot of its revenue and

ability to generate profits. And I think deliberations continued for a number of months over this big decision, and they have, you know, decided that it would be better for City, which is undergoing a number of restructurings in other areas, if it was out of this market.

Speaker 5

Yeah, the almost the impeach, well, I guess it was in peach. It wasn't really, but the Attorney generaler Ken Paxton is kind of in charge of that, taking aim at all the big underwriters, all the money center banks that have policies with which he disagrees by freezing them out of that market. The end result was that it's taxpayers who fit the bill because they don't get the best pricing for their munis. Is there anybody around to pick up the slack or are other banks facing the

same situation? Is anybody going to be left.

Speaker 6

Oh.

Speaker 4

I think the scrutiny is definitely there on all of the banks, but I think there are banks who are picking up the slack. In fact, a team of from City actually defected to Jeffries just in November after news that City was weighing pulling out.

Speaker 5

They saw the writing on the wall.

Speaker 4

I think the writing has been on the wall for a little while. In fact, City also shut the its muni prop trading desk not too long ago, which that was the desk that used the firm's own cash to trade and invest in the debt, and that has now translated to a complete wind down of the business by the end of the first quarter. But you know, City ranked number seven in terms of muni bond sale underwriting. Bank of America is first, RBC Capital Markets is second.

Then you of course have the likes of JP Morgan, Jeffrey's Morgan, Stanley, Wills Fargo. So in terms of picking up the slack, there is still very much a market there.

Speaker 7

I think.

Speaker 4

You know, for City, it represented at one time, you know, a very significant business and also the ability of the bank to connect to the country on a broader, sort of deeper level because it was providing financing for you know, schools, hospitals, railroad and so on. And that's an important thing for a bank to do and to be seen to be doing.

Speaker 3

And sally, just for a sense of how crucial munis are. What how does immunis play into the broader business for these banks in terms of generating fees? Just looking at the league table that you guys have in the chart, Bank of America with an almost thirteen percent market share at forty four billion dollars of volume, how does that compare two things like IPOs and M and A and actually generating fees for these big banks.

Speaker 4

Yeah, I think it's a very substantial part of what any any bank that's involved in the market does. I mean, there is an sort of unending s figot of material and deals to work on if you're in the in the municipal space. So it is definitely a blow for City that it was unable to really participate, for example, in the Texas market specifically, and it's a big it's a very substantial change for the company which historically had been such a big player in this space going back decades.

But you know, City is currently going through a big overhaul that it unveiled in September its biggest overhaul in decades, where it's trying to refocus on five core areas. The goal is to make it a leaner, more efficient organization, to remove layers of management again with that broader, broader aim of improving returns, and that is going to spark a lot of change at the bank, which we've already

started to see. We know that there will be job cuts, and there have already been some job cuts and we can anticipate more next year. But yes, the goal is to make City at a lina organization, and I think focusing on more higher revenue, higher margin businesses is the goal and Immunia business didn't quite align with that anymore.

Speaker 3

Well, yeah, Sally, we had the news earlier in the week from our colleagues in London about City offering partial early bonuses amid this restructuring. So as you talk about and look at what the path forward looks like, does twenty twenty four actually look like for City Group to rein in their spending and costs and also compete in what still seems to be a very hot war for talent on Wall Street, right, And.

Speaker 4

That's a really good point to bring up the bonuses with City, because yes, it offered a select number of staff the ability to take a portion of their guaranteed bonus now and leave rather than risk next year potentially losing their jobs under this restructuring, but being left with no job and no bonus. I think it kind of underscores it's a fairly shocking move, you know, to basically ask people to do this, And I think it underscores the urgency with which Jane Fraser knows she has to

start to deliver. The bank had already tried to or has nearly completed an exit of a number of its global retail markets. And I think, you know, it's undertaken other men to try and write the ship that perhaps weren't deemed to be fully effective, and this latest overhaul is a real attempt to show shareholders that it can set financial targets and meet them, that it can improve returns. And I think for twenty twenty four, actually things possibly

are looking fairly solid. We just had Mike Mayo, who is the Wells Fargo very well known bank analyst. He actually named City as his top pick among large cat banks heading into twenty twenty four, replacing JP Morgan Chase as his favorite. So, you know, he said he's been long and wrong on City Group, but he thinks that the restructuring is making them more simple, the management is addressing, you know, two decade or problems at the banks, and

that it's seeming to get expenses under wraps. So perhaps the subtotal of all of these measures in twenty twenty four is when we do start to see them pay off.

Speaker 5

Are going to see similar moves by other banks dropping their municipal departments.

Speaker 4

It's hard to say. I think it depends on the level of scrutiny from Paxton. It will depend on the economic viability of the business under that scrutiny. The other banks don't have the same issues as City, though, they don't have to make these dramatic moves to kind of really reshape the organizations. So that I think is why City was slightly unique in feeling the impact of the situation in Texas and having to weigh up the viability

of its business. It is doing this against this backdrop of, as Mike mos said, a decades long sort of problem at the bank of not being able to generate the kind of returns that the other banks were able to do so. I think there will be under scrutiny, but they probably won't feel that need to act in the same way that city has.

Speaker 5

City dropping its municipal business. Sally bankwell with the story for Bloomberg News. Sally, thanks very much, appreciate your time.

Speaker 8

You're listening to the team. Can's a live program Bloomberg Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business App, or listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts.

Speaker 5

Making the energy transition no easy tasks as we try to decarbonize utilities across the United States. Let's bring in our next guest. Maria Pope is the CEO of Portland General Electric. We got a picture of just how difficult that transition is. I think it was today or yesterday with California the governor there in his attempts to recommission the Diablo Nuclear Power Plant Diablo Canyon because they need it. Basically,

they can't just do it alone with renewable sources. So Maria, what is the timeline for you guys with your utility, Portland General Electric to decarbonize and are on track at this point.

Speaker 9

So we're looking to decarbonize the energy supply eighty percent by twenty thirty and then net zero by twenty forty. Obviously we'll need new technologies by twenty forty, but we are on track with forty percent of our customer's energy coming from renewable sources today.

Speaker 3

And with that technology transition, is that developed in house, are you licensing it from startups or kind of how does that play out?

Speaker 9

It really comes from a variety of sources, first legacy hydro, then we take solar and wind, battery storage. We have the second largest installation of battery storage outside of California taking place right now, and we use a lot of technologies to integrate all of those renewables for safe, reliable, affordable, clean energy for our customers.

Speaker 5

Hey, Maria, just how vulnerable is your utility to droughts? You mentioned hydro power and even wildfires with the transmission lines.

Speaker 9

You know, it's something a lot of people ask. We're in actually a drought period right now in the Pacific Northwest, and we've actually been relying a lot more on energy from markets outside of this region. Much of that is renewable solar and other sources. That come into this area, but also being able to construct new wind resources, new

solar resources is augmenting our legacy Hydro. As we look going forward, we will need ever increasing amounts of renewable energy, which are today price competitive with other sources.

Speaker 3

And how much does that cost? What's your capex looking like to make some of these investments.

Speaker 9

You know, we have taken our investment up over time, and in the last three years, our invested asset base has actually grown about thirty percent overall. Our revenues are also up about thirty seven percent. As we see customer growth. We have five percent more customers today than we did three years ago, and they're using ten percent more energy.

Speaker 5

In terms of the total return opportunity for the stock based on the earnings per share. I mean, you guys have been beaten up to some extent because of worries over the things that we mentioned. Where do you hint from? What's your message to investors at this point?

Speaker 9

You know, we're committed to growing at five to seven percent. We've been leaders actually in addressing wildfire. While one can never predict what will happen, we've invested tremendously in reducing those risks. And again are committed to the five percent earnings growth projectory.

Speaker 3

And when you look at expectations for twenty twenty four and even beyond, looking at some of the energy transition mission there or goals that you guys have in the state of Oregon and really broadly around the world has laid out, how does that How does twenty twenty four look for your business?

Speaker 9

You know, twenty twenty four looks really good. We actually will see revenues probably about fourteen to fifteen percent higher year on years we turn into twenty twenty four. I'd also say that we're focused on meeting our customers' needs, whereas the largest semiconductors and global manufacturers to small startups and over two million residential customers who are focused on the clean energy transformation and ensuring that we do so with a smart integrated grid.

Speaker 5

Yeah, as we make that transition, I mean, overall the grids in the United States, are they prepared for all this? And what sort of infrastructure upgrades do they need? And you know, are you getting any help from the Biden administration on that front.

Speaker 9

So we've been investing in grid technologies as well as infrastructure for a long time, where the fourth largest electric vehicle market is an example, and have been thinking about

those new technologies for years. From the Biden administration, We're very fortunate to have received several very significant grand one in particular around technology is a partnership with Nvidia and the startup Utili Data, the three of us coming together and bringing our unique capabilities to deliver for customers, to grow earnings, and to ensure really a solid clean energy future is attainable in a very short period of time.

Speaker 5

That sounds like the intersection of artificial.

Speaker 3

Bringing an AI. It's everything. I well, I guess this is my question, Maria. We've been talking about this transition and we've seen some things happen. I guess are you surprised with where we are going into twenty twenty four, with how quickly or slowly things have evolved? And do you expect that to kind of pick up in the coming years.

Speaker 9

You know, it's interesting. We're very optimistic about the future. I mean, when we come together in partnership, we're able to do great things. And the acceleration of clean energy has been remarkable not only for our company but across the entire United States and really globally. But we'll see coming out of There's no question that this will continue to accelerate and then we'll work together on new technologies.

One of the other grants that we received was part of the Northwest Hydrogen a billion dollars to invest in hydrogen.

And then we also have received two hundred and fifty million dollars on a consortium with the Confederated Tribes of the Warm Springs where we have worked together with them co owning a four hundred and fifty megawatt facility hydro power that we will now be able to increase the transmission with a two hundred and fifty million dollars grant enabling further renewable energy development on the reservation for the benefit of the future employment of the tribes as well

as renewable energy across the state.

Speaker 5

Is climate change the far and away the biggest risk or that you face in the future.

Speaker 9

Oh, I think we were facing a lot of risk as we go through a transformation. Clearly, we're using technologies, we're changing at a pace that is unusual for utilities but very exciting, and so as we manage everything from a changing and warming climate to changing expectations by customers to new technologies at what ares Managing risks is also managing opportunities.

Speaker 5

Ria Pleasure, Thanks for stopping by. Appreciate it. Maria Poulp, the CEO of a Portnam General Electric, the ticker symbol por and as they look at it right now among the analysts, seven buys, five holes, and zero sales. The average price target for the stock, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, forty eight dollars per Sure.

Speaker 3

Just recently got upgraded this week over at Barclays talking about the upside and despite it being a wildfire stock, they kind of point out that we're exiting wildfire season, and as someone who's spent the first eighteen years of my life in California, were season is the thing.

Speaker 8

You're listening to The tape cats a our live program, Bloomberg Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

Speaker 5

Let's switch to fixed income right now. Alex Batrand, our next guest, the director of Fixed Income at Rockefeller Asset Management. I missed out on five percent, But is what are we looking at four forty one or three ninety two right now in the ten are those screaming buys?

Speaker 7

I mean three ninety two is the new five percent?

Speaker 8

Right?

Speaker 7

Isn't that how we we shift?

Speaker 10

And if you want spicy and not sleepy into the end of the year, that is what we have right now.

Speaker 7

Quite clearly, rates drive in the market. The FED FOMC. J.

Speaker 10

Powell Williams happy to unpack that, making it fun for us into your act.

Speaker 5

With all That'speiag and Williams today, I mean, how do you set strategy with all these different narratives out there?

Speaker 6

Yeah?

Speaker 7

Absolutely great question.

Speaker 10

I mean, we are long term investors have said for quite some time as we think about what was driving markets in twenty twenty three, it was the rate story driving Muni's driving Corporus in twenty twenty four. That is going to be no different from here. The message is quite clear this week from the FED, even with Williams today. Williams came in and tried to walk back some of this dubvish interpretation of what was a dubvish meeting. Three

cuts instead of two. Many people were caught off guards by that.

Speaker 5

The view from me, he was walking it back at the instructions of mister Powell. He was walking in the instructions from.

Speaker 7

Someone or he's a loose canon.

Speaker 10

Whether that is the case is not for us to necessarily try to decide. But if you unpack what Williams said is he said that we are not talking about cuts right now. That doesn't mean that they're not talking about cuts.

Speaker 7

So when you look at the summary of.

Speaker 10

Economic projections, the dot pot, what does it tell us? It tells us three cuts, doesn't tell us when. And so the market feels like it got a little bit of itself pricing in sick. Some people calling for March, some people calling for June. What the FED is telling us is they are comfortable with this level of employment.

Speaker 3

But how how independent will the FED be in an election year, in a year where there's expectations that looking at the.

Speaker 5

World, Oh, it's that fantasy.

Speaker 10

I mean, well, listen, we are here to think about market volatility relative value. I can have many cocktail discussions around the independence of the FED. That is a fun topic to really go down a rabbit hole. Or maybe Abigail mentioned Twitter. I'm sure there's plenty of things there. Our goal simply is, to your point, John three ninety two, relative value or not fair value.

Speaker 7

And what we start to look at is where do we.

Speaker 10

See the trend line over the next three months, six months, twelve months across the rates market? And then most importantly, how is that going to impact a municipal market on a go forward basis?

Speaker 5

How is it going to be impact market on a EKO forward?

Speaker 10

Thank you for letting me continue that. I think from our perspective it's quite simple. Ratios continue to matter here. With this move lower in rates, you have a tremendous amount of demand that's come back into the market. So we look at rates, we look at technical supply and demand supply driven by new issuers stepping into the market, supply driven by whether retail is a net buyer net seller, retail is stepped back in there a net buyer.

Speaker 5

Tangential to that? Can I just ask go quick with the city group story dropping of their municipal department, how looney is the municipal market getting when you take into context the whole ken Paxton, Texas thing.

Speaker 10

Another key risk factor that we really think about is liquidity dynamics in the municipal market. What you've seen since my early days PREGFC till now is this consolidation of desks across the street. When we look at that as the dealer community shrinks, it is a really fortunate thing for the UNI market. For investors. Liquidity dynamics change. There is more friction in those periods of mentioning technicals where there are outflow cycles and you have fewer people stepping

in to provide liquidity. It can create some more challenges for those who need liquidity. It can create a lot more opportunities for those who are looking to be the source of liquidity. So while we don't like to see it, it's looking through that and really emphasizing managing the liquidity.

Speaker 5

For a new homeowner like Bailey. It's just like probably means is taxes are going to go up at some point. I mean it's right if you're having trouble doing these deals or having an underwriter and the market is impacted that way, ultimately it's going to be more expensive gas.

Speaker 7

You know, Let's make no mistake.

Speaker 10

If you look at the market yesterday, you have issues that are there. They are able to bring deals Illinois toll example, yesh Day fifteen to twenty times over subscribed spreads were half of what they were back in April when they brought a deal.

Speaker 7

You will still see deals being brought.

Speaker 10

I expect issuance picks up materially heading into next year, both in terms of corporate risk as well as muni risk because guess what, the FED has just made it a much better entry point. These deals will get done. It will just continue to be consolidated from here.

Speaker 3

Well how much I guess how quickly does the FED need to cut for some of those deals to come to market or does that not matter as much?

Speaker 10

Well, they're coming now, right, We're seeing it. We're seeing deals that are added to the calendar. Abigail was talking about a sleepy week we in the municipal market. We hope that next week we can catch up on all the work that we didn't necessarily do, you know, maybe trade on the margins. There are deals that are stepping in that weren't on the calendar. In particular, it's really across the board. We're seeing healthcare, we're seeing general obligation risk.

It is deals that we're tagged to come at some point likely in the first quarter, first half of next year, and they're saying, let's do it today based on what we're seeing at the moment. So regardless, even prior to the FMC call it pivot towards a softer tone, we expected that issuance was going to pick up in twenty twenty four, somewhere to the twoe of four hundred and fifty billion or so.

Speaker 5

I'm not exaggerating when I say this, but I get in the mail now at least it seems like once a month a letter from I don't know, some firms saying you know we represent well. In my instance, my healthcare provider Robert Wood Johnson Hospitals, saying you know they've been hacked. We don't think your personal information, but we're not sure. In the meantime, you should really monitor your credit. Well,

no kidding, is that. Let's talk about cybersecurity risk, where it figures into your business and how important it is.

Speaker 10

Yeah, when we think about risks that are forming in the municipal market, we think near term risks, so balance sheet pressures, rising costs, declining revenues, all of those things you're seeing. But then we think longer term as well, cybersecurity risk is one that's on that is on our radar, no different than companies that are facing these same pressures.

Speaker 7

And so we like to look towards our.

Speaker 10

Municipalities taking the necessary steps today to really protect data, integritory, financial SYSM scary stuff, John Ransom. Ransom, you don't want to think about that. When it comes to UNI credit, we agree they are not. It's a question of as these things, excuse me, we don't agree that they are not. Many are, But it's looking through to ensure that issuers are taking the necessary steps today just as companies are doing the same.

Speaker 3

And how is looking through some of the notes climate risk. We were talking to the CEO of Portland General Electric earlier about some of the green transition. You look at places like Florida and California where insurance companies are just leaving. So how does that factor into the marketing?

Speaker 7

You know, it's wild.

Speaker 10

It's something that we've talked about quite a bit on the desk, and as we think through bigger picture, longer term, the frequency of events, the intensity of events, they are going to get bigger, They're going to get larger. It is going to put press are on bounce sheets. So

it's both some of the costs associated with rebuilding. State and local governments will need to issue more debt, both to shore up infrastructure, water resiliency rebuild, but also bigger picture, long term, what's the biggest risk for Muni's out migration right, look at Detroit, think of some of those examples, and so as you think through it, I think the average individual buying a home is not really thinking through the climate rest long term big picture airs like Florida, at

some point people will and when that well.

Speaker 5

They're going to think about it when they go there and they can't get insurance homewards insurance, for instance. That's happening everywhere, not just Florida.

Speaker 10

And that's not always the case a lot of times when people really think about it, and there was a lot published on this topic earlier this year around insurance, it's when the event happens to them.

Speaker 7

So it's a little bit of hindsight.

Speaker 5

Alex, that was great. I hope we didn't get too far Afield.

Speaker 10

If you're yeah, this is fantastic, Lively Friday, Alex Patrol, the director of fixed income at Rockefeller Asset Management.

Speaker 8

You're listening to the tape Cat's are live program Bloomberg Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the tune It app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

Speaker 5

You know, it's been a tough one for Google as of late. We had the story earlier this week about their fight with Epic Games. They lost, but is their trouble over. There's a tough, tough road ahead potentially. Let's bring in our next guest. Jenrie is the senior litigation analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence on the Anti Trust Watch. So what's the panther the head for Google at this point or should I say alphabet?

Speaker 6

Well, John and Bailey. I think Google's going to have a rough year next year. You know, first they've lost with this jury trial on the play store side, and the judge will be deciding what the appropriate remedy is next year. Now there will appeal, and they have some chances there given how different this was from Epics lawsuit against Apple, But I don't really think that they're going to win that appeal and be able to overturn this verdict. It's a very high standard, So they're going to face

a remedy in that area. The other thing that's going to happen is that there will be a verdict or a ruling in the Department of Justices lawsuit against Google that finished trial earlier this year over its search business and whether or not it's maintaining a monopoly in Google Search. And I think that decision is probably going to come out maybe late first half, sometime in the second quarter. And again I think that was a bit that's a very close call, but I tend to lean toward the

DOJ winning that one. So they may also be looking at a potential remedy imposed on their search business. Then the third thing, which I actually think is the most important, or I should say the riskiest lawsuit that Google's going to face, is a Department of Justice suit that's challenging its entire ad tech business, and that is in a Virginia court that moves really fast and could possibly get to trial toward the end of the first half of next year.

Speaker 5

How far does that go. It goes right up to the Supreme Court.

Speaker 6

Do you think, Well, they only go up to the Supreme Court if there's anell. If there's an appeal and the Supreme Court agrees to take the case, the Supreme Court doesn't have to, and in fact, they actually only accept a very small percentage of the cases that apply to be heard. So I guess I'm assuming Google would appeal anything that it loses. So these things could actually drag out for a couple of years. But at the very least, what it could see is some really bad headlines next

year that impact the stock. Because if they have losses at the district court, while it's not over, because they will appeal and it will continue on. You know, those initial losses aren't a good thing.

Speaker 3

And just to call out this week, Alphabet down two and a half percent. That compares in a backdrop with the NASDAC up three point four percent and the S and p F two and a half percent. Jen just wondering how much could this cost Google from a monetary standpoint, given the number of cases ongoing.

Speaker 6

Well, look, it's so hard to say so on the search side. Let me start there, because I think it's the easiest. I actually don't think even if they lose on liability and there's a remedy imposed that it's really going to impact them in any significant way because at this point they're entrenched. I mean, people use Google Search. Most people prefer Google Search to being or to Duck

Doc Go. And even if they're in a position where they have to offer up choice screens, Let's say somebody buys an Android device and they're using it for the first time and they get to choose the default search engine rather than Google just being automatically installed, or if they have to sort of open up open up the space to other competing search engines, people are still going to use Google. So I'm not so sure that's whatever

happens there, it's going to hurt them very much. Now in the play Store, it could hurt a lot more.

You know, they make a lot lot of revenues from the fifteen to thirty percent commissions they charge to developers, and that's really going to change if these remedies that we expect stick, you know, if they don't win on appeal, because they're no longer going to be able to keep competing app distributors off Android devices, which means people can download these apps outside of the play Store, and they're also no longer probably going to be able to link

an app developer within the Play Store using Google's payment services, which is how they collect those fees, and so I think there will be an impact. They will obviously find some other way probably to make up for that revenue and charge developers for using their services. But if competition increases, that alone is going to force them to push down their commissions. So I think that one hurt.

Speaker 5

This Department of Justice has been particularly aggressive in antitrust cases. Can I say that absolutely? Why don't they just, like you know, try to weigh out this administration and hope for a change at the top.

Speaker 6

You know, they very well could, because if they can do whatever they can to drag their heels, you know, they can appeal, they can try to slow those appeals down, They can do those sorts of things to try to drag it out. You know, if you think about it, way back in two thousand, when Microsoft lost a really big monopolization suit, they actually got out of it in a sense because the administration changed George Bush became the president.

It was remanded to the district court, and in the meantime, George Bush's administration settled the case, and so that kind of thing does happen. Things change with administration, so certainly they can try to do that. You know, I have to tell you, John, I wonder all the time why all these big deals I'm seeing get signed up don't just wait, Because they're also aggressive when it comes to challenging mergers and transactions.

Speaker 3

And when you look at some of the antitrust battles that Alphabet is working through, are there similar cases that come to mind that you can kind of look back at as examples of what could play out in the coming months and years.

Speaker 6

Well, the Microsoft case I mentioned, even though it's really old at this point, is one of the best examples. Up until now, Up until the last two years, the enforcers, which includes the Federal Trade Commission too, not just the Department of Justice, rarely ever sued a big company for a monopolistic conduct. This is really new. So you had Microsoft, you had a few other little cases, and then about five years ago, the Trade Commission suit Qualcom for monopolization

in the chip markets. They lost that case. They wanted the diss report, they lost on appeal. That case ended when the Supreme Court refused to review. So we don't have a lot of examples, and what we saw with Microsoft.

I think that's really important for all these cases is that while Microsoft was found guilty, one of the things the appellate court said is that a structural remedy in these instances is really drastic, and it has to be applied only with enormous caution, and the least sort of imposing or intrusive remedy that will fix the problem is

the one that should be used. And so it suggests to me that if the courts are following that precedent, even if there is liability found here with Google, that structural remedies are really unlikely.

Speaker 5

And then when it comes to social media and the debate over whether or not it's addictive, particularly for youngsters, what's happening on that front, and what are the risks to Google alphabet.

Speaker 6

You know, there's a lot of activity on that front. But on that one, I'm afraid I'm going to have to refer you to my colleague Matt Chattenhelm, who is covers more of the consumer protection side of the Federal Trade Commissioning. He has been all over what's happening on the privacy front, and I think you'll have to speak

to him. Because on the FTC side, when it comes to Facebook Meta, I should say I am much more focused on the current lawsuit that the FTC has to try to force Meta to sell off Instagram and WhatsApp. That's the one that I'm following more so than the privacy seats, although the privacy seats have more immediacy right now.

Speaker 3

I guess what other you mentioned it? But what other trials are you keeping an eye on or should we be keeping an eye on in terms of whether it's the anti trust space or kind of other big tech names.

Speaker 6

Well, you know, we have a lot going on, as you both mentioned earlier, against big tech, So there's been a lot of focus on Google. There are a lot of cases against Google. But bear in mind we also have a pretty big case against Amazon that's pending by the Federal Trade Commission, and that's challenging some of Amazon's third party seller practices anti discounting practices they call it. That basically force sellers to provide the lowest price that

they provide anywhere on Amazon. So that's pending. The lawsuit I've just mentioned is also pending and could even get to trial next year, where the Federal Trade Commission has challenged Meta, saying, hey, you just run around and you have for years buying up your competitors so that you don't have viable competitors down the road. You look at these nascent up and coming startups and if you think they could threaten you down the road, buying them so

as not to compete with them. And that's what the FTC allege has happened with WhatsApp and with Instagram, and so we have that pending too. So among kind of the big four big tech platforms that we all understood were under scrutiny, the only ones, if are that isn't facing a Department of Justice or Federal Trade Comission law Foo is Apple, and that could still happen. I understand that investigation is still.

Speaker 5

Ongoing, and we haven't brought up Europe and the regulators there, but that's a discussion for another day. Jen. Thanks. It always a pleasure to see Jen Reed, the senior litigation analyst Anti Truns with the Bloomberg Intelligence.

Speaker 1

Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcasts. You can subscribe and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller I'm on Twitter at Matt Miller nineteen seventy three, and I'm fall Sweeney.

Speaker 2

I'm on Twitter at Ptsweeney. Before the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio

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