Broadcasting live to New York Bloomberg eleventh, Rio to Washington, d C. Bloomber to Boston, Bloomberg dwell Under to San Francisco, Bloomberg nine to the Country, Shoe is Exam General one nine and around the globe the Bloomberg Radio plus Appen Bloomberg Got Gone. This is taking stock. I'm Kathleen Hayes along with PIM Fox. By Thursday, voters in the UK will be going to the polls to vote whether or not they should stay or leave the European Union Union.
The Brexit vote is upon us. Our next guest says that even if the vote is to stay and the polls are leading in that direction, Pim, as you well know, there could be big moves in currency markets as investors adgest to that. Yes, we'll also be talking about the potential for importing inflation into the United Kingdom. Is indeed the UK voters that decided to leave the European Union right now, Let's go to Arlie Pello Bloomberg, Bluer Bloomberg Business Flat and I thank you him, Thank you Kathleen.
The dal the SMP Nez dec Hall advancing stocks are surging. SMP five hundred index, up the most in four weeks, after the latest poll show the UK campaign to remain in the European Union is gaining ground ahead of Thursday's referendum. Of course, between now and Thursday and Friday, when we find out for sure, when we get reaction, count on Bloomberg for complete ongoing coverage. Oil is advancing today, extending
its advance from a one month low last week. Equities rose, the dollars slipped on speculation the UK will vote to remain in the up A EU. Scott Bower's senior market strategistic trading advantage. The oversupply is is kind of gone. There. There's a balance now between supply and demand, which is what we want to see, and that's what it's been
shifting to. And that's why we've seen oil you know, rally, certainly off the lows that we saw in the mid twenties, but really rally off the last you know, month or so, and we're seeing high tom and and the prediction is now for high demand going into third and fourth quarters of this year. And right now West Texas Intermediate accrued it is up a dollar thirty five forty nine thirty three on w t I, a gain there of two
point eight percent. Jaguar, land Rover and Diagio have joined a growing number of companies warning employees of the risks of a withdrawal by the UK from the European Union. Down. Industrial is up one seventy nine, a gain narrow of one percent. SMP of eighteen a gain of nine tenths upon percent, has stack of fifty eight, a gain of one point two percent. The tenure down eighteen thirty seconds that yield one point six six percent. Gold is down
two tenths of one percent. Now the other stories making news. Thank you Charlie from the Bloomberg News room. I Rainey in a cent cio. The FBI has released the transcripts from one calls between the Orlando nightclub shooter and police. US Attorney Lead Bentley applauded the officers for how they handled the standoff. The brave men and women of the Orlando Police Department, the Orange County Sheriff solve this. The FBI and others should not be second guests. They performed
valiantly during those early morning hours. Lives were saved because of their heroic work. There's a shake up today in the Donald Trump campaign. Trump has fired his hard charging campaign manager, Corey Lewandowski. He's clashed with longtime political operatives who were brought in to make the campaign more professional. Parts of southern California saw record highs yesterday and temperatures
are expected to climb even higher today. Jasmine Casillo changed her plans to avoid the heat easily and I'll be on a long hike. Can't really do that, so staying out of the wilderness for a little bit. Just trying to save by the beats and An experimental vaccine for the zeke of virus is due to begin human testing
incoming weeks. In Ovo Pharmaceuticals says it received clearance from the FDA to begin early stage safety tests of its DNA based vaccine against the mosquito born virus, and the program director of the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey has received an honorary title from Queen Elizabeth Glen Goosey is now an Honorary Member of the Most
Excellent Order of the British Empire for public service. The Journal News says the New Yorker has been taking members of the royal family on tours of the World Trade Center site for fifteen years. Global news twenty four hours a day, powered by our journalists in more than one
news bureaus around the world. From the Bloomberg Newsroom, I'm Rainy in a cenio, Charlie, and we thank you and again recapping equities advancing SMP five hundred index climbing nineteen points to two thousand ninety, a gain of nine tenths of one percent. I'm Charlie Palaton. That's a Bloomberg Business slash there on Bloomberg Radio, just underscoring how focused global markets are on the Brexit vote. On Thursday, the pound
jumping the most today since two thousand. It's spring, a global rally in higher yielding currencies as the latest polls are signaling that the campaign for the UK to stay in the European Union is gaining momentum. Joining us now here in our New York studio is Steven Casey, FX trader and senior market analyst at Cambridge Global Payments. Cambridge is the biggest privately owned corporate provider of foreign exchange services in the world, part of the burgeoning non bank market.
He spent many years in London trading currencies. Now back in New York the last few years to work for Cambridge. Welcome to the show, Stephen. Thank you very much for having me. So you worked in London, you must still have a lot of buddies on FX trading desks over there. What are people saying, not only about the vote but citizens Londoners? Well, how are they voting? It's funny. I mean, like the polls, Um, it's split. I've got some friends
who think that it's a foregone conclusion. I've got some friends who think that it will never happen. So I guess the polls kind of match what my inner circle um beliefs as well. Concerning the Brexit, we'll have to wait and see. Steven. Do you think that investors are really prepared if they put in place any policies or any strategy that would foretell what would happen to their investments if the UK decides to leave? Um? Well, I can only speak for our clients. I don't think that's
the case. I mean, we've done a good job I think of preparing our corporate clients over the last few weeks and months of this situation as it sort of loomed over the markets. We're trying to make sure everyone's kind of prepared for the worst but planning for the best. UM. I think the volatility that we've seen over the last few weeks really speaks to how nervous the market is
either way on how this will play out. Well. I think it's interesting and the reason you point out to us in a note you sent over that the building of positions currency positions from bulls and bears suggest while pound bulls maybe regaining the upper hand, the uncertain nature of the vote will pave the way for large and ill liquid moves once the votes of intellige I think that's really important. Think a lot of people figure if they vote to stay forget about Friday, Friday, even like Thursday,
this could unleash a lot of turmoil in currency markets. Absolutely, you have to wonder about the time of the year. It's the summer. Markets have thinned out a little bit, desks are half staffed, So even if without the Brexit, we would see a little bit ramp up in volatility. So UM, despite what happens on Thursday, we should see um a little bit of a follow through into early next week. On either side, what is the thinking about
the strength and weakness of the US dollar. Well, the dollars kind of had a funny run, and I think it's gonna be, um, sort of a choppy trade through the summer. You have to remember it's an election year, so we've got many different things in play. UM. I know that Chairman Yellen will be addressing Congress tomorrow and Wednesday, and I expect her to maintain a consistent statement with what um the Fed came out with last week. I
don't think she's gonna try to rock the boat. UM. Sorry, no. My My thought process is that over the next few weeks, once we do get the Brexit out of the way, UM, if we do see market stabilized a little bit, we do see oil continue to recover, maybe that should pave the way for the Fed to begin to get comfortable with maybe a move in September. In that way, we could see the dollar catch a bid tone towards the end of the cucond point and they want to let
the dust settle. But what what could she say tomorrow that would rock the boat. Jim Buller, president St. Louis Fed, rocked the boat a bit on Friday when he revealed that he is the forecast for only one rate increase now this year, but for the next two years. I will Janet Yellen do you think be would you like to hear her away on that? What could she say or about policy tomorrow that would cause you to buy
or sell some currencies? Well? I think if she made any direct statements to the next meeting in July, if she got specific with July or September, I think that could cause for some volatility in the short term. UM. That's why I think she's going to be more vague with her statement. I think she's gonna try to be very consistent with with what the committee came out with last week and try to avoid locking down UM the Fed with anything UM concrete over the next two meetings.
She's gonna want to leave it open, leave it open. What about the Bank of England? You think they're leaving it open. You think there's a possibility that Mark Karney, the Bank of England, will raise rates before the Federal Reserve raises rates. Uh No, I don't. I don't think that's all. I like Mark Arney. He did, he did an excellent job at the Bank of the Bank of Canada and so far he steered the ship in England
very well. Um, right now, I think it's gonna take a little bit of time for um, for for the bridge to kind of see how this Brexit either way kind of stifts through. And I think in action is probably the best action. So you talk you corporate clients. What kind of corporate clients do you have, and what is there? What is their fear, what is their hope in all of this? Well, their fear is their hope is probably for a little bit of a non event.
I mean, most of our clients here in the US are buyers of f X, their buyers of Euros, buyers of stone, and they're hedging that direction. So um, you know, I was just reading the op ed that Muhammad Alarian wrote this morning and blew Burg noting that we could see a seven seven to ten percent drop in Sterling, maybe a three to five percent drop in the euro
should the brexit go through. I think that's their biggest fear, you know, overheaging or maybe putting themselves in a position to to miss that move where they're jumping in it and one twelve in the euro and then we're resetting midweek next week around one oh five in the euro and maybe as low as one thirty five in the pound, So that's kind of their biggest fear. You don't share that fear at the moment right now. I don't think
it's gonna go through. UM. I didn't think it had a great job of going through before what happened last week with with Joe Cox. I know that the sentiment has kind of shifted to back the remain vote. UM. But you know, if you look at these referendums historically, you're gonna need to see that the under side with about a six or seven percent raise before we see the uh, the vocal through. Thank you very much, Stephen Casey for x Trader, Senior Market Analyst, Cambridge Global Payments.
You're listening to Bloomberg Radio. Bloombertaking Stock is brought to you by Benzel Busch Motor Car in Inglewood, New Jersey, offering commitment to service, luxury and value with total transparency from America's premier automotive dealership. To find that way you drive at Benzel Bush dot com.