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Boeing is John Tucker is just reporting.
It looks like the leaders of the union and Boeing they have an agreement. I think this is the third agreement they're going to bring to the rank and file, and let's see if the rank and file approves it, because they've turned down the last two.
But it's thirty percent for four years and bonuses.
I don't know.
It sounds pretty good to me. Let's check it out with Thomas Black. He's a Bloomberg opinion Columnisty covers logistics, manufacturing, aerospace. Thomas, it seems like a good deal to me. But what do I know what's going on here with Boeing in their union these days.
Yeah, it looks like a quite a rich deal.
We'll see if the workers want to take it. They they started out with a nominal twenty five percent rays offer and it's now the thirty eight percent.
But if you compound that, which is how.
You should do it, it's a forty four percent raise over four years.
So that's pretty chunky.
I mean, when we think about these negotiations back and forth, does this seem to be lengthy? I mean, I'm thinking back to the writer's strike that went on for some time, and you have to really hit a middle place to where everyone's coming to a compromise. How do we think about this with Boeing moving forward and getting production back to what it is looking for.
Well, the workers have all the power right now. They really do have quite a bit of leverage, and that's why Boeing has taken so much time trying to settle this. The Boeing is in bad shape financially, they're losing money. They have customers who are climbering for aircraft. They have suppliers who are trying to figure out production schedules so that they can ramp up their production. So Boeing really needs to get its plants started. So the workers know
this and that's why they've been holding out. And they've got a deal on the table. Let's see if they take it. If they don't, I think there's a little bit of an anger issue maybe there, Maybe the workers want to lash out at the company because ten years ago they did get a raw deal from the company when it had the upper hand.
So the tables have turned.
But now we're going to see Monday if they're going to accept this deal and get production cranking up.
So, Thomas, when you talk to people kind of within the process on both sides here, what's the feeling. I mean at the end of the day, is that it just a numbers thing.
Is it thirty eight percent? No, I want forty two percent?
Or is there other issues that are out there that are challenging here, because it's surprising that they haven't that they I guess that it's surprising that the negotiations has been so difficult.
What do you think they're looking for?
Yeah, I think the workers really wanted to reinstate their defined benefit pension plan, which again ten years ago that was taken away from them. As you know, those plans have been declining over the decades. There are very few out there right where you get a certain monthly retirement stipen and that lasts for the rest of your life. It's now all the four to one K savings plan. So they were really trying to bring that back, which would be unprecedented. This deal does not do that. So
we'll see if the pay ray was enough. And there's also a twelve thousand dollars signing bonus to sweeten the deals. So we'll just see if the workers are willing to accept this.
As you know in your story, there's not one, but two issues. Of course, you have the strike here, but additionally, on the other end, we have to talk about this fragile supply chain environment for the company. When you're talking to sources and just research more broadly, what does it seem as though it will be the next thing to push Boeing forward? I mean this is still a lingering issue for them.
Yeah, well, they Boeing has all kinds of problems in its factory floor. They've had quality issues, They've had work coming in at different stages that's got them out of sequence, and that's caused all kinds of problems. They've had supplier quality issues, so that they've got some real problems to tackle. Now this is really just the first step is to get workers back in the factories. Number one issue for Kelly Orkberg, the CEO at Boeing, is to heal the rift with the employers.
They have to get them on board and really change the culture on the factory floor so that they're making those quality planes and very efficiently.
On the other side, it's the suppliers. The suppliers have been whiplashed quite a bit.
It was the pandemic that hurt them, and then we had the Max grounding because of the fatal crashes there, and we had problems with the seven eighty seven aircraft that was grounded for a while, so they've really had they haven't been able to just produce regularly. They've had at all kinds of on and off situations with Boeing, so that healing that supplier base is key as well too. So the good thing about Boeing is that they don't have to worry about the customers.
The customers want the planes. The planes are on order, they have a massive backlog.
They really just need to get their production up and ramp it up and show the regulators the FAA that they can make quality planes and then they'll be in good shape, all right.
Thomas Black, thank you so much for joining us.
Thomas Blanky's a Columnstrom Bloomberg opinion covering all the logistics stuff, talking about Boeing.
Here.
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Let's get back to the economic data of the day. That's the jobs number came in with With the next A lot of folks said they get ready for that.
It was to be.
Expected with hurricanes and strikes and all that kind of stuff. Let's check in with an expert here, Jenny Biley. She's a division president at Employe Bridge. Jenny, what did you take out of the labor number today?
Yeah, this was a tough report. Certainly, I kind of will refer to it a little bit as maybe this was the October surprise that everyone was always waiting for. But we know that many of these job cuts, you know that are happening. A lot of it came from the impacts of the hurricane and the strikes. However, most of the job growth that we've discussed this before on your program, most of the job growth is really coming
from the government sector and the healthcare sector. So if you look at this private number, we actually lost jobs. If you back out the government gain of forty thousand, we would have lost jobs. A private sector would have lost twenty eight thousand. So this this is a concerning report. Even with the hurricane and even with the strikes. You know, across the board, many of the sectors are really losing jobs, and especially you know, that manufacturing number had a loss
of I believe forty six thousand jobs. And then the sector that I'm in, the temporary help sector, lost almost fifty thousand jobs, and so that is concerning as well. You can see that companies are still very cautious to hire, and they're letting their temporary workers, you know, go first as they try to hold on to their permanent payrolls and permanent employees.
I mean, we're just under a week away from the next FED meeting, and of course this is going to be some data that the Federal Reserve will be parsing. How should we be thinking about this in the context of the rate cut environment and what trajectory could look like at this next meeting and beyond, well, you.
Know, I think the Fed will really dig into this report because it's not just the October numbers that look so soft, but they also went back and revised the prior two months downward and took another one hundred and twelve thousand jobs out of the job market. So I think the FED will be looking at this report and saying, you know, the job the job market is not as strong as maybe we thought it was, and we are starting to see even though wages are still up, I
can tell you wages are starting to soften. They're certainly not keeping up, you know, with inflationary costs. So I do believe that the FED will look at this report and look at these numbers and what's happening with unemployment, the participation rate, where the job growth is coming from, and realized that, you know, this is this is a
bit of a challenging job market. And in other reports too, we are seeing, you know, increase in layoffs and many sectors, I know, the challenger in Gray report came out and again showed, you know that layoffs continue to happen. So there are certainly some concerns out there in this in this job market JO just.
Thirty seconds left here, the wage inflation or the wage four percent seems pretty solid to me, but you see some a little bit of concern out there.
I do.
I think employers have you know, been increasing wages really for quite a few years, and at this point, with where the job market is, I think that that's going to just flatten off. That's what we're hearing from employers, you know, large employers, mid size employers, they're really watching their labor costs and they're having to be more conservative.
Johnny, thank you so much for joining us. We always appreciate chatting with you on these important jobs days. Joinny Biley. She's a chief workforce analyst at employee Bridge, joining us via zoom here again, the nonfarm payroll came in at twelve thousand. The consensus essmenate was for one hundred thousand. Last month was two hundred and fifty four thousand. A lot of economs to say, you know, there's hurricane effects, there's layoff effects, so got to take that into account.
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Let's stay on the labor front here and get a sense of kind of where we are in terms of DEI.
Diversity, equity and inclusion.
Equity and inclusion.
Thank you very much. It seems I'm not sure it's waxing or waning, and some companies are backing away from it. Someone companies continue to lean into it. Alan Schwyer joins us. He is a principal researcher of human capital at the Conference Board.
Alan, thanks so much for joining us here.
As we think about DEI, we've seen some fairly high profile, publicly traded companies kind of back away a little bit from that. Can you give us a sense kind of where we are on diversity, equity and inclusion in corporate America?
Yeah, sure, you know, I think there are a lot of reports of organizations moving away from DEI or backing off, if not canceling DEI, but they're they're very much the minority. Our research over the past year and those that of others really shows that about eighty to ninety percent of organizations are holding the course or expanding their DEI programs.
So we think it's maybe gets a little more attention when when someone you know quits their d I programs, but the great majority are holding firm.
I mean, what have been the effects? I mean, of course, we know last year the Supreme Court did reverse affirmative action. The ruling there has that had an impact at all when we think about hiring in the corporate America space.
Yeah, it has. You know, technically the Supreme Court ruling because this IDOL six does not have an impact on the workforce, but we know that it has a chilling effect on DEI programs. In fact, our most recent research shows that more than two thirds of executives say that it is putting a negative having a negative effect on their DEI programs. So yeah, I mean, the Supreme Court decision has certainly made an impact.
What are you seeing from workers themselves? What are workers looking for? Are they embracing DEI? Is this something they feel has value within their workplace?
Yeah.
We just surveyed the US workforce. We had a big sample, almost fourteen hundred workers, managers and up to the director level, and workers are saying they want DEI. In fact, the majorities say they would not work or would only reluctantly work in an organization that does not take DEI seriously.
So that's a powerful signal, and it differs between groups at work, but over all, the majority of workers do want to see DEI initiatives and want to work in diverse organizations, according to our research.
So from an investor perspective, of course, people are really thinking about returns. Have there has there been any data to show that this actually impacts returns from companies.
No, it's a good question, and it's very hard to link DEI programs directly to financial incomes, but we know that it does drive engagement. In fact, our survey respondents tell us that it improves engagement, improves belonging, improves inclusion, and improves retention. And if it does those things, then you know, naturally there's a there's a link, but it's not a direct link to financial performance.
So Dan, what's the Are there certain industries within corporate America that are more on board with DEI versus maybe some others.
Yeah, in this research, we found that the services sector is you know, the responses from employees in the services sector are certainly stronger than in the core manufacturing type industries and not unexpected. But again, overall, the workers want to see more D. But you're right in certain industries there is a stronger preference for more DEI programs than in others.
Can you also speak to particular age demographics. Is there any difference in terms of which generations are embracing the push?
Yeah, and this is really important, I think too, because I don't think anyone will be really surprised to hear that the younger generations, millennials and Gen Z are more in favor, more demand, more DEI expect more than older generations. And we know that those generations will form sixty percent or more of the workforce by twenty thirty. You know, I may the same is true for women and minorities.
Women and minorities are already the majority of the workforce and have much greater expectation in demand for D in the workforce. So we think, you know, demographics are destiny. This is happening very quickly. In an organization that really actively resists this will probably struggle to survive, I mean, from finding talent and even finding customers.
With about thirty seconds, I am looking at this story that says Boeing dismantles DEI team as pressure builds on the new CEO. Have you seen a shift of corporate different companies actually push moving away from DEI and not really seeing it as a priority.
Yeah.
I think more are moving away from the terms. They can be a lightning rod, and they're focusing on the work more than the words.
For sure.
Some are backing away, you know, more comprehensively. Most are changing how they describe it, continuing with the work.
All right, We'll see how it plays out. Certainly a big part of the culture here at Bloomberg. Alan Schwier, Principal researcher of Human Capital at the Conference Board, joining us from Charleston, South Carolina.
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David Weady joins us. He's one of the reporters on that story. He's an energy reporter for Bloomberg News. This is our big take story, and we love the big take stories on Bloomberg. Here, David, how is the oil and gas industry becoming more productive at in the field.
Yeah, this was something that really surprised us in the oil industry for how far it spanned beyond just the industry itself into other parts of the ECONO. They're doing it just through little ways.
You know.
Your first guess, you might think, oh, it's artificial intelligence of what doing it, But really it's not even that we've barely scratched the surface on using AI. It's just a bunch of little things where on their own wouldn't move the needle, but you add them all up and it's making a big difference. It's little things like you know, incentives to the workers to drill faster, you know, catered barbecue lunches out of the rigsite, remodeling their living quarters.
It's drilling in a unique pattern in a U shape where you couldn't figure out a way to get all the rest of the oil out of the ground and you have a small footprint. So instead what you do is you drill down sideways and then you turn and go one hundred degrees the other direction to capture the rest of that oil. That was a concept that could never even be thought about earlier in the years as we just sort of kept playing around with ways to drill underground. We figured out a way to do that
and to do it correctly. You know, it's also to figure out how to frack two wells at one time, and that not only reduces the friction in one well, it saves on the manpower because you use one crew to now complete two wills at the same time. So it's all these little just sort of small efficiency gains where it's allowed us to get a lot faster at producing at less manpower. And what it really boils down to is you've got about a third of the rigs is which you've had ten years ago, and yet you've
got record production. So a dramatic decrease in the amount of equipment and then the people to run them while maintaining enormous amounts of output. And that's a lot of the energy is free to surpass all of their sectors in the economy.
So when we're thinking about productivity, of course, one thing that you need to be thinking about is, you know, governmental legislation that will support this. And I see here in the piece you all speak a bit about you know, this upcoming election. You say that Kamala Harris has repeatedly said that she won't be fracking, which is a walk back of comments that she made in twenty nineteen. How much does the government and different policies play a role in the ability for these companies to excel.
It's a good question because sometimes it can be misunderstood. Chevron actually talked about it a little bit earlier, and they're doing earnings this morning, and on some of the different interviews, Mike Worth talked about how ultimately the US shale is there and it's not really being restricted by the US government. You know, people talk about whether you
can go on federal lands or not. Really where they're doing a lot of the drilling is on private, independent land that the US government does not own, So really that's not very restrictive to these drillers. Where it kind of comes down to more is permitting for things like pipelines. So you drill, you produce, but you got to send it off to market, you got to send it down to the refineries, and so getting timely approvals for the permits to build new pipelines to send more oil and
natural gas away from the oil fields is key. So that's kind of one sticking point for policy on any type of administration. Is where the oil industry is going to care.
David, you're down there in Houston. That's you know, obviously that the center the US energy business. What's the feeling just a broadly define about the business of energy, because you know, as recently as ten years ago, fifteen years ago, they were talking about peak oil and all that kind of stuff. I don't hear about that as much anymore.
Yeah, you don't really hear about it. I think partly because there was this kind of you know, ESU movement and you know, green energy technologies and let's try to do both at the same time. And maybe kind of you saw investors pivot away from investing in oil and gas, and what it kind of led to was a decrease in spending in oil and gas, and so you've had
less push to really grow supplies. So it's kind of tightened the picture a little bit, and so there's sort of less concern of maybe this thing is going away and more about let's make sure we have enough supply out there so the prices don't go crazy above one hundred dollars a barrel and really sort of raise red
flags on the industry. So I think they're trying to kind of fly below the radar and not too much attention on energy prices that are too high, while still trying to maximize profit and have high enough oil prices that eclipse their sort of break even price and give them a decent amount of profit. So I mean that the mood around here is, you know, I think if you're in the oil industry, you sort of feel like you're not appreciated enough that the politicians don't you know,
appreciate you. But otherwise outside of the industry, it sort of is a view of you know, it looks like it's pretty healthy and still productive and profitable and growing.
I mean, as we think about just digging a bit deeper into the ESG movement and where we are today, as we think about ESG and just investor sentiments surrounding this sector, have you seen it all pullback in backlash in the space.
Yes, I think the backlash is diminished. I mean, there's still going to be the environmental groups out there that are raising concerns and you know, and we're hearing from them. But I think that the broader you know, just push to really kind of drive down this industry. I think you're just seeing a lot less. It's sort of just abated a little bit. And because I think the view is we still need supplies for a while of oil and natural gas, and you know, we can't have electricity
shortages even here in Texas of all places. So yeah, it seems like it's kind of dialed back.
You've got your own grid. That's how you guys do things down in Texas.
We understand that.
David Weady, he's an energy reporter for Bloomberg News and he is based fittingly in Houston, Texas. Again, the story, the Big Takes story, is about the productivity in the oil business, the energy business, and thank John Tucker for flagging that for us. That's our Big Take story today on the Bloomberg triml where you can find at the Bloomberg Turminal and on Bloomberg dot com slash Big Take.
Check it out there.
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Back to the marketsas John Tucker was just reporting strong day in the equity markets. Here, let's break it down a little bit with Sarah Ponzik. She's the first vice president of wealth management at UBS Private Wealth Management.
Coming to us Life from.
Del Boca Vista in the Boca Raton, Florida area. Sarah, thanks so much for joining us. A lot of earnings this week, a lot of economic data this week. What are you telling your clients these days as they finish up the year and think about next year.
Yeah, it's been a bit of a marathon between this week and next week. Think about the amount of earnings that we've received, not just from any companies, but the largest companies in the stock market and in our economy. Also some economic data. Of course, Jobs Day was today. I know, I'm sure you've discussed it at length already. Then we've got an election next week and the Federal Reserve, so you know, we're going to just jam it in to two weeks.
But at the end of the day, we're talking to clients, you know, the picture really hasn't changed.
Yes, there's a lot of data, and to be sure, the data's even messy as you know, you know, the job zdata that we receive today is burdened by storms and strikes, and the data itself is messy.
So when we look at the overall outlook going out from.
Here, nothing that we've seen over the past week, and really nothing that we expect even next week changes the outlook, which is still optimistic and positive from here.
So earning season, we just got some mixed reports from these big tech names. I see that you're also keeping an eye on the tech selloff. Talk to me about what's going on there, especially given the fact that people are really depending on this sector for the markets gains.
Right, we call it a tech selloff, But nowadays tech sell offs are really just blips. You know, A couple of percentage points is hardly anything when you look at the run that we've seen in tech stocks this year and last year, coming off the volatility of twent two and look, you're absolutely right. At the end of the day, these companies are so so important, largely because they make
up such a heavy weight of the indexes. So if you're an investor and you're either comparing yourself to an index like the S and P five hundred or the NASAC or you're invested in an index like the SMP five hundred, Well, these large tech companies are the ones that are really leading the way. And at the end
of the day, yes, we saw some volatility post earnings. Yes, these companies are spending so much money on capex or capital expenditures when it comes to AI, but at the end of the day, we do believe that this spending is going to pay off. These large megacap companies are at the forefront of this AI boom that we're going to see in the years to come.
And it's really amazing when you look at the big four tech companies, and I'll just lay them out.
You know, Microsoft Alphabet parent or Google parent, Alphabet AMZ on Meta. Those four companies alone account for almost half of spending on artificial intelligence.
We've seen it laid out in their earnings.
But at the end of the day, they're spending on what they believe is the future and what we too believe is going to be a trend that's not only a trend, but is going to turn into revenue and earnings in the future as well.
Sir, what kind of phone calls are getting from your clients about this election. Are investors trying to position around it? Are they trying to just trade through it? Ignore it?
It?
Kind of what kind of discussions are you having?
So people got a bit emotional, and you know, for good reason before and around an election. Not just recently, but I would tell you that over the past couple of months, I think it's a little telling. I've gotten calls from clients on both sides of the spectrum, so Democrats and Republicans saying, Okay, if X person wins the election and I want to leave the country, what does that mean for my portfolio?
And can we still work together?
So emotions, emotions run high, you know, surrounding political elections. But at the end of the day, you know, politics really don't have as big an effect on markets as some people tend to believe they do. If you look at any which scenario over history, a blue sweep, a red sweep, ridlock you know, ex party in office with the other, you know, controlling Congress and the Senate, there's
really no statistically significant outcome. When you try to compare different you know, representations of DC and the government to stock market returns.
It really doesn't matter all that much.
Really, what matters is the federal reserve and interest rates and the economy, which frankly, the president doesn't have as much control as many people like to believe it to. We actually had an event this this.
Week where you know, the question was posed to the attendees, who do you think had you know, the worst market returns during their presidency and who had the best.
I don't know if you want to take a crack at it, but most people didn't know the answer.
Yeah, I mean I think just goes God. As you're thinking about this election and pushing forward. I mean, you're in private wealth management. This is a very important space. What is your island right now? If you all are kind of not focusing as much on the election to determine returns.
So so love when it comes to planning surrounding policy. Yes, in the private wealth space, when you're working with high net worth individuals, family offices, there are potential policy changes that could pose.
You know, significant change for clients.
So when it comes to the estate tax, for example, right now, the way the law is right and is at the end of next year, the current law is going to sunset, and the estate tax the exemption amount is going to be half.
Going to be cut in half.
So yes, we're seeing We're doing a lot of planning surrounding that, working with our.
Clients and state attorneys to make sure that they're prepared.
But at the end of the day, what we're really focused on is technolology, which we discussed, you know, doing tax planning a head ahead of your end and then just when it comes to markets, looking at the economic.
Data, looking at the trend for interest rates.
Look, we're going to get a Federal Reserve meeting next week, but our economists expect that we'll see another fifty basis points of cuts by the end of the year, another one hundred based points of cuts next year. So if we know cash rates are coming down, interest rates are coming down, making sure that you know our clients aren't sitting in cash or just short dated treasury bonds for example, because at the end of the day, reinvestment risk is an issue right now.
Sarah, thank you so much for joining us. Always appreciate chatting with you.
Sarah Ponsek, she's the first vice president of wealth management at UBS Private Wealth Management. She's located in Bolca Raton, Florida.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecar Play and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship York station just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven.
It's good to Washington because we've got an election next week and there aren't many people in Washington I want to talk to.
One of them is Nathan Dean. He knows what's going on.
Then we always get the straight poop from Nathan. Nathan's Bloomberg Intelligence senior policy analyst. So Nathan, you're down there, You're hip deep and all that Washington stuff and all the you know, the Innundia and all the talk and all the back talk, back office talk and all the type of thing. What's the feeling in DC about how this thing may break on Tuesday?
Yeah, So, you know, I don't think anybody really has any good prediction of how things are going to break outside of the Senate race. And the reason why we're saying the Senate races is because you know, this is a very difficult race for the Democrats that are defending twenty three of the thirty four seats that are open at the moment, and a lot of those are in
purple states or in Trump's states. So if you're a Senator Shery Brown, who's the Senate Banking chairman, or Senator John Tester in Ohio and then Montana, those are races that the Democrats have to win if they want to
keep the Senate. Now why do we care about the Senate? Well, the Senate obviously gets you confirmation of judges, but also regulatory leaders So if the Republicans take the Senate and Kamala Harris wins, they can effectively block and jam a lot of the new regulatory leadership that she wants to put in place. So this could mean that Lena Khan at the Federal Training Commissioner, Gary Ginzler at the SEC sticks around for a little bit longer. If President Trump wins,
then a deregulatory effort can move much quicker. So outside of the Senate race, everything else is too close to tell.
What's the latest on swing states?
So obviously I think you know what we're telling everybody is that it comes down to Pennsylvania. I mean, if Kamala Harris doesn't win Pennsylvania, the odds of her winning the presidency is very slim. So you know, we've been working with some European clients, for example, and as they come into the office, say eight or nine am, you know, central European time, look for the results in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh to really try and give you an indication of
who's going to be winning this election. But I will say is that, you know, the general thought here is is that you know, there's this idea that the election could go you know, for weeks. We just don't know.
But I also think there's a lot of folks out there that are thinking that this at least we could get an indication of who the president is, maybe not officially and maybe not called by the agencies and so forth the news organizations, but we could at least get an indication of who the president is going to be on Wednesday and Thursday. So you know, from a market perspective, we're going to be looking to see for when those
state results start coming in. And obviously it's the one hundred thousand folks in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada and Michigan and so forth that are ultimately going to decide who.
The president is.
Speaking of election calls, what is the expectation for how long it could potentially take this election to be called?
Well, look it really, you know, this is the challenge of the American voter system is that each state has their own processes and procedures. I mean, certain states can't start counting your early ballots until the polls close, for example, and so we just don't know how long it's going to take. However, what we can say is is that, you know, we should get an indication of how things
are going. And when you look at the swing states in particular, you know you have a good mix of those that are on the East coast and those are on the west coast Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada and so forth like that. Put just going back to what I said earlier, for Vice President Kamala Harris, it comes down to Pennsylvania. If she can't win Pennsylvania, then chances are of Michigan and Wisconsin are in play and
she loses the presidency. So again we would just we're really paying attention to Philadelphia and Pittsburgh these days.
Nathan, I say this affectionately a policy geek, a wonk You've got some great research out there that says, hey, here's what happens to a couple of key industries from a regulatory perspective, if Harris wins or Trump wins, what are the two one, or two or three things that you're really looking at or could be in play depending upon who gets in office.
Yeah, So if you're.
Trying to think of like catalyst industries, meaning that the election means one substantial catalyst or the other, the investment banks are the perfect thing to come into mind because there's this rule out there called the Bosle three end game. Now, if Kamala Harris wins, banks are going to look around a nine percent capital increase starting in probably twenty twenty six. If President Trump wins, that rule, I think effect goes away.
Renewables is certain. Is another thing because Eric, you know, in the prior segment mentioned that taxes could go up next year. The Trump Air tax cuts expire for individuals at the end of twenty twenty five, and Congress and the President is going to have to figure out how to pay over four trillion dollars to keep those tax cuts going. And so is the Inflation Reduction Act at play. That's very important to the renewable industry, so something to
keep in mind. And finally, big tech. You know, there's this stereotypical idea out there that Republicans equal good for big business, and so if President Trump wins, you know, big tech in particular could be it could be a positive in terms of ease of regulation and enforcement. But there's this idea of economic populism going through the Republican Party right now and a lot of scrutiny on big
tech that could also be in play. So if you're in the big tech space, you know, and the Federal Trade Commission in the DOJ is investigating you, there could be some pretty tough investigations coming, no matter whom mens the presidency.
Hey, Nathan, I know we're on our first day of November, but there's always talk about the October surprise. Is that something that we saw.
I don't think so.
I mean, you know, one thing that we've been leaning on is that there's not many people out there who are undecided. If you looked at the charts, these charts are on the terminal, you know, you're looking at somewhere between point five and one percent of the undecided popular or the independent population out there, they're still undecided. And so this race, in our opinion, has always been about, you know, Vice President kam Haaris versus President Trump versus
the couch. And if people get off the couch and they vote, then Vice President most likely wins. If people stay on the couch and they don't vote, then President Trump could win. So it's more more about a turnout rather than an October surprise.
And I really don't.
Think we've seen anything that a really changed voters' minds in October. But for the question is was there an October surprise that we keep people from voting?
We just still don't know yet.
All Right, Nathan, thank you so much for joining us. As always, Nathan Deane, he's the senior policy annost for Bloomberg Intelligence. He's down in Washington, DC. You can see his research just go to b I go and he's got a lot of great research out there about the different scenarios under each type of election scenario, Harris versus Trump versus split Congress.
And he's got got a lot of great researchers.
About which industries might be impact us to take a look at that. All right, folks, speaking of the election, join US for complete coverage of US election results Tuesday night. It kicks off a five pm Eastern with a special two hour edition of Balance of Power, followed by Coast to Coast Team Bloomberg Team coverage at seven pm. Get live election results and analysis with context Tuesday night on Bloomberg Radio, Television and the Bloomberg Podcast YouTube channel.
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