Bloomberg's Micklethwait: Merkel Is Europe's Best Hope (Audio)

com slash moot Muni van Eck access the opportunities. The SMP five hundred index down twelve now to two thousand thirty five, a drop of six tens of one percent down Industrials down one hundred twelve points, a drop also of six tens of one percent. As stackdown forty one, a drop of nine tenths of one percent. The ten year up three thirty seconds, Zeal one point eight four percent, Gold down seventeen ninety ounce to twelve fifty six, a

drop of one point four percent. Crude oil unchanged now down one send for eighteen of barrel on West Texas Intermediate, a drop there of less than point one percent. I'm Charlie Pellett. That's a Bloomberg Business Flash. You're listening to taking Stock with pin Box at Gathleen Hayes on Bloomberg Radio. Brexit. Yes, there is a referendum schedule for June the twenty three in the United Kingdom to find out whether the United

Kingdom will remain part of the European Union. Here to tell us more about Brexit, but also about Europe in general and perhaps a growing fatigue in Germany. I want to welcome John Michael Thwaite. He is editor in chief of Bloomberg Editorial. John, thank you very much for coming in. Just give us the outline of your piece, because you speak about this growing fatigue at the heart of Europe. What does that mean? Well, there was an element in this piece of being a kind of postcard from the

place I went to. UM I went to Berlin, and what struck me, not having been there for about a year and a half, was to sense of tiredness. And it's partly that Merkel has been the leader for a very long time angler Michel Tarla, and but it's also actually just a sense of exasperation. I think that the Germans have been trying to lead Europe in a very reluctant way. Anyway, and the rest of your Europe hasn't been very helpful. When you look at those two big

crises which dominate Europe. Put Brexit to one side, the two big crisis of the euro and the migrants. And on the euro you know, the Germans look around um Europe and somewhat hypocritically because they haven't done much. They think how little structural reforms being done in places like France. They get cross about the fact that the Italians are trying to sort out things that they should have done

years ago. And they feel continually as if they're the people writing the checks now that that there is hypocrisy in that that the Germans are done very well out of the euro. On the migrants, I think the sort of busterness is greater because the there's Germany, there's angler Michael. She's kept the whole show on the road. She has

Germany has helped Eastern Europe places like that hugely. And the one time she turns and says, please please help, please help me with this million refugees, because if you look at that million refugees across the whole of Europe, you should be able to absorb it. That one time, maybe you'll play ball, and so Germany just feels worn

out of it. Well, the other part of this, of course is I mean there's so much if you look at Greece in Germany, for example, and you mentioned something that has probably fallen off the radar screen just a little bit, and that is the Greek Parliament having to

decide on support measures. A couple of years ago. We followed every twist and turn out of Greece, but the intensity at the height of all that there were there was some nasty stuff going back and forth to the Greeks and the Germans are harkened back to World War Two. That there is always that narrative, and I do think there is um there was an element in two thousand and twelve particularly that that way you don't Anklamclor, I'm

we gotting to see her. And I think the sort of general background at the time was you had Greece in all kinds of trouble, but Greece which had not paid its bills, and you had a very strong faction in Germany. D I think by Mr Scheibler, the finance minister, saying enough is enough, We've got to cut them off. But what I think panicked her was those images of Albanians being rounded up, of the element that another Balkan tragedy could begin and once again Germany would be part

of it. I think Germany has moved on from that now and they think, well, if Greece does get down the tubes, it really is probably more fault, more the fault of the Greeks than it is of us. But they're still reluctant to let it happen. So this Sunday the Parliament will vote again and there's a sort of fudge in place. And the fudge basically is that the I m F has been sitting there and rather heroically

and correctly pointing out two things. One is that Greece cannot repay its debts in the long term, it's just got too many of them. And secondly that it's not going to hit its primary budgets, let's target in two

thousand and eighteen. And the fudges that the Germans, who do not want to offer any debt relief, we'll put up with some kind of version where the debts get put off for slightly longer, but no no nominal things taken down, and they will accept some of the more heroic forecasts the Greek until go through, but maybe it won't.

Maybe this time the Greeks will get cross. But at least the the fudge is that this will go through Parliament, that Germany the I M. F or sign off on it, and then there will be more money agreed for Greece later and the whole thing can continue. And that is all maybe better than the alternative, which is Greece gaining down the two plug hole. But at the same token, from the German point of view, this is a problem which has never been solved. There's no sign of it

being solved. There's nothing happening France, and there I think it is France a ball and chain when it comes to I think problem, I think two things. I think historically France and Germany were the people who drove along the euro with the British somewhat reluctant, rather annoyed backseat

driver heckling um. Now what's happened is that you have particularly the shape of a land, you have a leader who is barely able to reform anything, and the Germans are just getting bored a bit of it, you know, they they again, there is hypocrisy in this Merkel actually has not done much structural reform herself. It was all done my Gerhard Stroker Schroeder, her predecessor. That by any measure, the German economies are much more competitive out it in

the French economy. The France, France has all these issues which it really hasn't begun to tackle, the labor laws, all the different things the regulation and which the Germans know they should do, and it annoys them that the French haven't done things, and the French tend to hide behind other bits. And it's again it's another source of frustration.

And actually in this article, would I speculate is that what might conceivably happen is that Brexit the very thing that the angling rcle most wants to avoid, because she is writing that if she loses the British is the other great liberalizer or is it not the main liberalizer in Europe, she will not get the reforms she wanted. Oddly, if Brexit were to happen, that's just the kind of exposive thing which might just pushed Germany one last time to go back in there and try and reform the

central European institutions. Of course, we are speaking with John Nickothwaite, I had a bloombergatotorial and his bloombergviewpiece the growing fatigue at the heart of Europe As a brit what what what do you make of the real possibility that breaks could happen. Although some of the latest polls are showing that we're look, there might be a majority to leave, that is shifted again and now the majority wants to stay.

The majority. Most of the polls show that the majority wants to stay, sometimes by narrow margins, a couple recently by quite large margins which have affected the pound. But and this is a crucial thing, is that none of these polls mean that much unless you begin to overlay

them with demographic things. Because the biggest divide in Britain and I'm quoting numbers, which is about a week old between the old and the young, and the old overwhelmingly around want to leave and the young overwhelmingly want to stay again around And the interesting thing on this, which is just a huge factor, is the old vote and

the young don't. So even if you have poles saying that there is a voting intention to stay, you have to add that element of cynicism about it, or or worry as women actually interestingly have yet to make up their mind. In many cases they're the video. I'm sure there's been lots of like this of Nigel Farage, He's a former commodity broker, British politician. It was all over YouTube and I'm thinking that that anti German vitriol. You know that the Germans are too powerful that you was

not set up for Germany to dominate. It was set up to bring people together. What is what is the end game for people in that camp? Well, there's always the Britain. And I grew up in Germany was a fixation. Grew up watching sort of war films. Dad's Army, which is a really very funny comedy about the British Home Guard during the war. That was part of your youth. Um. And that the Germans also have a somewhat irritating habit

of repeatedly beating US football the last moment on penalties. Um. But all those things that there's always been a subtext, and the tabloids are not afraid to have a go at it. The week when I was I was in Berlin last week and one of the British tabloids came out with a sort of headline basically saying that Germany had a veto over what the British couldn't couldn't do and that Cameron had given into it, and again that

was stoking this. That said, I'm still of the opinion that actually Angler Michael is one of the few people who would be a voice that Britians, particularly modern Britians, would listen to, because basically, when one of the biggest problems for the Remain campaign is a simple one is

the European Union is a bit of a mess. And amongst all the people you know who how symbolize some degree of efficiency and ability to work things out, Angela Merkel is still even allowing for the refugee crisis, she is the best possible person you can put forward in that way. So the sort of yes said that there are some nasty anti German things, particularly I think, to be honest, amongst more olderly people, young younger, the young seem to care less, not least because you wander around London.

London is now one of the most cos Impolitan cities in the world, with a lot of Germans there. I was going to ask you about Turkey, but I don't know if you can do it in ten seconds. Turkey is a problem, is an even greater problem. No Turkey, Turkeys, and that Turkey is has done a deal over the refugees where it has taken some money in exchange for looking after them, and now she's getting cross with the deal, John, because I think you'll just have to return to taking stock.

You talk about we can just talk all the way across. You can talk Turkey. Yes we can't. All very good. See he's learned a lot he's years in the United States. John mcolf waits, the editor in chief from Bloomberg Editorial. I've tweeted out his piece on the fatigue at the heart of Europe. I'm Kathleen Hayes along with Pim Fox. This is taking Stock on Bloomberg Radio. Right,