The Brexit vote coverage on Bloomberg Radio. So as Charlie Apologist so ably reported, it does look like the vote to Remain in the EU has edged out Breggs that we will not know for hours, but this is the latest. And when you have Nigel Farage, who has been such allowed and important voice urging voters to say no to the EU, if he says it looks like Remain has won, it seems like a very powerful indicator to all of
us who are listening and watching. So if the EU is not going to see the exit of the UK, what does it mean for the global economy? What does it mean for the US economy? And in fact, what does it mean for global central banks. We're gonna put all this to Bill Pool. He is a former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, senior fellow at the Cato Institute. Joining us now, Bill, welcome back, Thank you, Kathleen. So what's your immediate reaction to this
or my reaction is? Uh, First of all, it looks like Remain winds. I follow the betting odds and they have now gone to twelve to one for Remain. Uh. You mentioned it looks like it's going to be a fifty two split. Percentage wise, it's a fairly healthy margin. I think it's good that it's not just eking out a bear a bear wind. It appears that the UH. One of the results is going to be that the the EU is going to have to respond to the fervor with which the Leave campaign proceeded in the UK.
A lot of people in the UK are set up with the regulatory burden that comes from the EU. UH. It's important to understand that the EU has UH used this very nice sounding word, they want to harmonize regulations, but a lot of what that is about is that the French want to saddle other countries with the same
unsatisfactory labor market rules. For example, the Hollan government and France, elected as a socialist government, has been backtracking to a degree that backtracking has led to labor disputes in France, been some strikes recently. So I think there's going to be should be some soul searching here and the UK needs to come forward with a very positive program of reform for the U. For the EU, it's becoming a scleric.
Growth rates are low, unemployment hangs high, and most of the EU reforms are really needed, and that's what the UH leave people. UH, we're saying that we're fed up
with this bill Pool. I wondered if you could talk a little bit about demographics, not only when it comes to the United Kingdom, but to the European Union at large, because as part of the U govn whole results, they are saying that people under the age of twenty four, we're three to one for remaining in the European Union, while those over the age of fifty voted to leave. That's not going to change after the results are in
tomorrow morning, is it. No, that's not going to change. Um. Actually, because as the older people are gradually dying off the fraction of the population that remembers and was governed by the UK before it joined the EU. UH, that population is declining, UH as people age and die. So I would guess that the allegiance to the EU among the voting public in the UK will rise, but that's not going to satisfy a lot of the underlying concerns. And I would guess also that as the younger people UH
achieve more responsibility various places in their career. UH. For actually senior positions in businesses large and small. They will see the burden that is imposed by the EU and they will uh gravitate towards an appreciation of what the leaf position was all about. So we'll see how that plays that. I just have to ask you, Bill uh, Janet Yellen, Fed chair. Actually other central bankheads have said they're really waiting to see what happens with the breggsit vote.
Looks like the Braviin vote maybe prevailing at the very least. Do we say, now, well, Janet Yellen, you said you better watch out because it might buy financial market volatility that could tighten financial conditions, hold off on an interest rate increase, and said she was very specific. It had a big influence at the last meeting. Is opened the door wider to a rate hike for Janet Yellen and
the Fed. I suppose. But one of the things that's rather surprising about this look, when was this election scheduled over a year ago, wasn't it? So why is it just now the Janet Yelle on feder Reserve is becoming concerned and using that as a reason to um delay consideration of a rate hike. Uh. It seems to me that's uncertainty has been out there for at least a year. It's getting We've gotten closer to it. Isn't the Fed
supposed to look ahead? Well? I think maybe they're worried about the financial market impact and being more because I don't think people took it seriously that would happen, And when they did, for a while the FED said, WHOA, that's maybe the horse of a different color. The polling results and the betting results have for quite some months indicated that leave was a had had some probability put on it. That's not a recent development. That didn't just happen.
Bill pull Just to inform you, the unemployment rate in the United Kingdom right now is about five five percent, and the pound sterling is strengthening against the euro, up more than half a percent of more than eight tenths of a percent against the US dollar. UH the en weakening, the Swiss frank weakening. Will any of this change? Mark Karney ahead of the Bank of England's position on interest rates.
There was an interesting chart I think it was in the Wall Street Journal this morning showing per capita GDP in the UK relative to UH some I guess it's France in Germany and the UK has been pulling out ahead. The UK has been pulling out ahead. The economy has been performing better. That's not to say that it's great,
but it has been performing better. And I think that if if this UH, if this leave campaign leads to leaves the UK to promote more structural reform, more pro market, pro growth reform, that's going to speed up growth and it will justify require indeed, interest rate increases and UH forthcoming incoming quarters. Now. Of course, a lot of people
talked about Mark Arney. Mark Arne, excuse me us, the governor of Head the Bank of England, has been pounding the table about how damage has already done to the UK economy. UH Is that insufficient to slow down an interest rate increase for the BOE the Bank of England. The damage already done? I think that's pretty small. There's been some uncertainty. I don't see any evidence of huge disruption, um,
you know, significant investment projects on hold, etcetera, etcetera. I think that he's probably overstating damage already done and that will disappear from the equation pretty quickly. Thank you very much for joining us. Bill Pool is former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. He is a senior Fellow at the Cato Institute. Continuing coverage right here on Bloomberg on the Brexit boat. The polls are closed in the United Kingdom to determine whether the country will
remain in the European Union or will leave. This is Bloomberg Radio