AnitaB.org CEO on Keeping Women Working During Pandemic

federated hermes Um. Phil, you have a couple of decades at least of experience in these markets, and I wonder what you think about where we are right now, because it feels frothy, it feels um toppy, but so many people are still incredibly bullish this equity market. Well, um, first of all, thank you very much for having me on. It's four decades of experience, so I've got plenty of gray here and I've seen obviously more than a couple

of cycles. Um. Interesting question, because we were down about four percent or so from the middle of February into I guess it was last Friday, and the concern was that the federal reserves, accommodative policies were leading to inflationary pressures. Uh. It really hasn't manifested itself in the core CPI and PC, but it's absolutely manifested itself in a lot of the

nominal metrics. We look at agricultural commodities like corn, wheat and soybeans, crude oil, copper, lumber, these prices have gone vertical over the last you know, eight or nine months as we've come out of you know, the deepest recession in history. And and it's it's our feeling. And I think a lot of folks believe that over time this will filter into the core numbers, and they are in fact starting to move up. So I think investors took you know, four percent of chips off the table over

the last fortnight or so. And then the question was what's going to happen next? Well, the numbers, the data is coming in pretty good. And we just saw the I s M number for February, UH, strongest number in three years. UH. Last week, the personal income and spending numbers were very strong. The adorable goods and cap goods

numbers were very strong. So that the the recession in our mind ended last mayor June that that we're in this powerful recovery that if anything, is going to be enhanced with the sugar high associated with the next iteration of fiscal stimulus that that President Biden is looking to put on top of this. So as I look out over the balance of this year, we think that we're we're you know, GDP is probably going to be you know, five or six percent or perhaps higher. Sp things pretty good,

I mean, Bloomberg Bloomberg Intelligence. UM says, I think seven point four percent in Q four that's what annual GDP is gonna look like. UM, the highest since Night three. And the concern, of course, Phil, is that this brings with it the inflation that we're starting to see you point out in commodities, and that brings UH and about face by central banks by the Fed to raise rates. And our most read story of the day, UM quotes a guy called Sam Cecilia who runs a pension fund

in Melbourne, Australia. He says that's wrong. He says in deflationary forces are bigger in his opinion, and he says in five to ten years time, people are gonna look back and say we should have bought stocks at twenty times earnings. What do you think, Well, I agree that we should have bought stocks at twenty times earnings. Last March was an awesome by point. You've got treasury yields

which are still very low. I'm a big seed model guy, So the reality is that you should be willing to pay twenty to twenty five times earnings given how low interest rates are. But but you're the gentleman that you're just quoting made a very interesting point that that I would like to circle back to. Even though you've got these nascent nominal inflation concerns bubbling, you know, out there on the horizon, the Federal Reserve is not going to address that at any point over the course of this

calendar year. And and for a reason for that, in our view, is just a matter of practicality. J. Powell's term as the Federal Reserve chairman expires January of next year, and he would very much, in my opinion, like to get reappointed. There is zero chance. But he's going to scale back quee or begin to come off a zero bound funds rate, which potentially would would harm his chances of being reappointed by by President Biden. So so this issue.

Are we're gonna scale back queie and we're gonna start to raise interest rates? Might be a twenty two or twenty three issue, but it's certainly not a twenty one issue. Al Right, Phil, you have been bullish for a long time. You have been right for a long time. What's your

biggest concern in the marketplace here for your bullish call? Well, uh, you know, one of the one of the key reasons for a bullishness is the fact that we thought we would get a series of vaccines that would be efficacious, and that the rollout, you know, at roughly a million a day, would get us to critical mass and herd

immunity by the middle of this year. We thought that by the time we got to the fourth of July Independence Day, we'd be on the other side of this thing and could start to begin to normalize the economy. But suppose that's wrong, all right, Supposed we stumble on the rollout, Suppose these variances that we're seeing out of South Africa or the UK render less efficacy with the with the vaccines that are out there, and and then

that throws our thesis into uh into disarray. So we'd like to believe that we're on the right path here. But but certainly the healthcare related issues are the things that probably keep the awakeed night more than anything. Hey, Phili, thank you so much for joining us. We appreciate it. As always again, you've been consistently bullish UH, and you've been consistently right, and the folks that invested Federator Hermes

reaping the benefits. The Phil Phil Orlando, chief equity market strategist and head of Client Portfolio manager Management at Federated Hermes based in Pittsburgh, p A. When you go to Pittsburgh, the first stop as to sell side analysts, you've got to stop in and see the folks that Federated. They're big across asset classes. They see market trends on a global scale, and we appreciate having them come on. I

want to continue our focus right now on UH. On what's going on UM from a Bloomberg opinion perspective, in terms of President Biden's UM UH sort of melding of the polarized America. You know from here in Germany, UM, it seems pretty bad and it didn't seem like we'd had a real improvement UM. After the after the inauguration. Let's bring in Jonathan Bernstein, who's a politics columns to talk about what's going on in terms of the healing of America. Jonathan, how how do you see, um, you know,

the state of US health right now? Well? Yeah, I have a situation where the out party, the Republican Party, is not accepting a lot of people in the republic wary, not accepting the results of the election, and that the former president Donald Trump is still you know, claiming without any evidence that the election was stolen. So that's a you know, that's something that we have not had for a long time, and it's dangerous, you know, the the idea of a democracy requiring past that at this point.

I mean, I know that was the case, and there was this horrible act of violence, um insurrection at Congress, but I really haven't heard many people mention it in the last couple of weeks. Aren't we have we moved on from that point? Well, you weren't listening them to the big conservative meeting over the weekend the Spas where where Donald Trump gave a speech, and where most of the speeches, you know, kept talking about this mythical election

fraud and all that kind of thing. So, you know, and you need the party for democracy to work, you need both parties to accept that elections happen and the winner takes office and the loser loses. And you know, in the long term, as we're looking at, you know, the health of American democracy, it's a real big deal that Republicans, a big chunk of Republicans are not accepting election results. Now, you know, day to day, does that

matter on Capitol Hill? Well, you know, Joe Biden is president. Um, but in terms of the sort of health of American democracy, that's a huge problem going forward, Jonathan. Are there any undecided voters in America anymore? Yes, but there sure are a lot fewer, you know. Um, if you look at, for example, Joe Biden's approval ratings and disapproval ratings UM. So far, his approval ratings are basically normal for recent presidents. He's around fifty approval UM. That's much better than Trump

was originally. Uh, it's a little behind where Barack Obama was. He was unusually popular. But the other presidents, from saying Nixon on it's it's basically they were all in the mid fifties give or take at this point. But his disapproval rating UM is thirty eight percent, which is other than Trump would have been the record high. And you know, if you look back in the mid century, UM, mid twentieth century presidents beginning of the polar era, most of

them started off with disapproval ratings under ten percent. Have all of them under ten percent, Eisenhower, Kennedy, Um, you know, in that era, Lennon Johnson, they were under ten percent disapproval. When new presidents came in, most people who didn't you know, who weren't their supporters, said let's give him a chance. We don't have an opinion yet about how they're doing nowadays. That's not true. Um. All the recent presidents have started

with higher disapproval ratings. But Biden's at you know, thirty eight percent now is much higher than where Reagan or Quarter or the Bushes were early on. I'm tempted to think, you know, we just had this obviously incredible period of partisanship. UM. The former president Donald Trump as well as his opponent, UM, Hillary Clinton, unbelievable polar rising figures, both very well, I guess, kind of partisan. Although I don't really think of Trump, I wouldn't have thought of him at the time as

a traditional Republican. But it's tempting to think of that that that happened because of those two are because of Trump. But um, you see it happening everywhere, Jonathan. Um. You see this polarization in the UK around Brexit, you see it in Eastern Europe around these authoritarian leaders. I mean, is this a global problem because of I'm tempted to say Facebook, rather than a problem of America because of Trump. Well, I would say in the United States it goes back

a lot earlier than Trump. So you know, if you look at UM during the Clinton administration and all, you have this sort of strong um, especially on the Republican side of this refusal to accept that, oh yeah, we lost an election, and so Republicans, you know, what is there? What is their legislative program? It's to get more difficult for Democrats to vote and for them to set up elections to help um their own party. Um, it's harder

to say globally whether it's all the same phenomenon. I'm just saying, you see it happening everywhere, so it can't be just an American thing, right, or do you blame the Republican Party for you know, it's hard to tell whether that's whether there's something you know of the modern era, whether it's communications or something else that makes it more likely. UM. You know, traditionally the United States had a very weak

parties and didn't have strong partisanship. That changed in the nineteen nineties, and so it's it's a more recent phenomenon in the United States, whereas in some place like Britain you always had sort of strong you didn't have that kind of weak parties. UM, week non ideological parties the United States used to have. All Right, So you're coming out of the Sea Pack UH gathering over the weekend. President Trump came away as the leading contender via poll.

Is this still Trump's party going forward? You know, it's hard to tell exactly what will happen. UM. You can't really predict much off of the Sea pack straw polls. They've been wrong many many times before. UM. In a sense, Republicans still really like Trump, but whether they prefer Trump to other candidates is a little unclear. A lot of the seepack UM participants said, well, we don't act. About a third of them said, well, we don't really want

him to run again. Um, what what I would say is that the attitudes of the party, the anti democratic, um maybe authoritarian strain of the Republican Party which preceded Trump, got stronger as a result of Trump and is very strong today. So even if it's not Trump, it's harder to see somebody like uh, you know, John McCain or Mitt Romney becoming the nominee that time, although we're still three years away, so you know, a long time that

things could change. Hey, Jonathan, thanks so much for joining us. We appreciate it as always. Jonathan Bernstein, Bloomberg News Opinion Calumnists. Uh, just giving us the latest lay of the land of the political estaplishment. But again, it'll be interesting to see the data that Jonathan cited in his column shows that the you know, the polling gate we look at the favorables and the unfavorables, really you know, crystallizing what we

all kind of know, which is the polarization. The political polarization in this country appears as strong as it's ever been. And as Johnasons suggested about to see how it plays out over the next um, you know, four years until we get to the next presidential election cycle. But fascinated here Jonathan's opinions. I want to get to the blowout I s M numbers that we saw across the Bloomberg today. You can, well, if you're in the US, just type

ECO go. I'll give you a hint. Anywhere else in the world, if you type w E C O week O go, you can pick from an assortment of really fun flags and if you click on it, yeah yeah, week I'll go. Click on the American flag obviously the stars and stripes there, and you can see UM I s M coming out new orders, sixty four point eight prices paid eighty six manufacturing, which is the number we look the most closely at sixty eight. The survey was

for fifty eight point nine, so a blowout number. Let's bring in Timothy Furies, the chairman of the Manufacturing Business Survey um AT I s M. Thanks so much for joining us. Why were these numbers so strong? What happened? Yeah, thanks pauling that. So this is our nine straight month manufacting expansion, which is leading the you As economy out

of the post pandemic decline. So we had five of six industry sectors, which are our biggest industry sectors, recording indexes on their own over sixt So that's the primary point here is that we had strong industry sectors really eating us out this month, really good order levels, as you mentioned, all the supporting sub indexes that support the new order number were very strong. Backlog being notable at

sixty four highest number and about fifteen years. We had really good production output with the employment growing also, which is a good sign. We've had some difficulty unemployment side for a couple of months, and we continued to have headwinds on the input side with the fire deliveries and the inventories, so and that probably won't get resolved until the vaccine is widespread deployed. So really good month exceeded my exportations. As you mentioned, the economists we're thinking at

the eight point nine really strong number. All right, So yeah, Tim, just great numbers. And is you know you've explained to us in months past it's really been the manufacturing sector that's leading this economy out of you know, those that shock we experienced early part of last year. Is there a risk here that the price for input prices could be problematic with some of these manufacturers maybe inflationary. Well, it's point I mean, it could slow things, but there's

no signs of it at this point. On the general comments side, I'm receiving no comments that they're not able to push prices through their customers are normally. I would start to get that if they get headwinds. I think we're probably a couple of months away from that. You know, standard costs were set going into January. Variants are now being seen at the company cost level. Will be pressure on the sales guys to try to push those prices

increases through. We'll see what happens, but at this point, you know, looks really strong. I don't see anything that's gonna stop us continuing to expand at some pretty high levels. What do you think about the UM commodity inflation that we've seen. I mean, you're in a unique position to answer this question because you've had management roles at U, TEX and UM. You were the chief of curement officer for Tousan Trump. So what does this mean to you?

The jump in metals price, not just metals, but raw materials, soft eggs, I mean everything. Yeah, the biggest foundations here are basic chemicals, steal aluminium and plastic pellets. I mean that that tends to get into almost any manufactured product. And as a as a buyer, boy, I'm struggling like crazy right now because I'm seeing price increases. But generally what happens when you have input price growth, you also have margin expansion and the revenue expansion at the company level.

So it may not be good for supply people, but it's generally good for the economy. I mean, I like to see prices go up when I'm sitting here, you know, looking at the analysis for the manufacturing side, but I don't see it's flowing anything yet anyway. And I think when we did our economic forecast where twenty one we predicted that we see about a three growth and input

costs and we're probably on track to that. To you know, one topic that we don't talk that much about anymore, which was topic A for much of last year, it's just kind of trade tensions, supply chain disruptions, tariffs. Are the folks you talk to in the manufacturing in the heartland, what are they saying about China and just broader supply chain issues. Well, right now it's about getting product that the porch are still jammed up, so they've been jammed

up up until the lunar New Year. We thought they might relax in the next few weeks, but most likely that's going to continue to be a problem right into the summertime. Transportation issues are really an extreme issue, primarily because we have so many part shortages that people are having to shift happen the trucks. I think of our supplier delivery comments were transportation related, so and that's been growing a month a month the prior month, prior months

from that. So there's a lot of disconnections here in the supply chain. Manufacturing people know how to manage that. They have their handsful right now, probably more so than any recent economic growth that I can recall. But we're making good gains. I think the biggest issue here is really labor at the supplier facilities handless companies, and we saw some movement here and in the February time front. Hey Tim, thanks so much for joining us again. We

always appreciate getting these monthly updates. Temp Fury, chairman of the Manufacturing Business Survey, the Institute for Supply Managements, and really blowouts wrong numbers coming out of Industrial America and is to mention we've had some pretty consistent performance there, and again that's a thirty percent of the economy. Uh so you flipped to the other sevent that services. That's folks, that's getting people back to work in a lot of

those leisure industries. The expectation is that's part of that whole reopening trade that we're all looking forward to later this year. Now, I want to talk about UM because it is International Women's Day coming up. I think it's on the on the eighth, and because UM we're celebrating women I think I believe all month here on Bloomberg Radio.

Want to bring in Brenda Darden Wilkerson. She's president and CEO of anita be dot org, which UM, I guess strives to drive diversity, UM equality and inclusion across the tech industry. So tell us a little bit Brenda. Well, first of all, welcome to the program. Thanks thanks for joining us. Tell us a little bit about what Need to Be does and also why the tech industry. I was wondered this, why is it so sort of notoriously bad for gender issues? Well, thanks so much for having

me again. Um So why the tech industry? Well, first of all, the tech industry, we have to admit touches every aspect of every life globally. And that's why we exist to work within the ecosystem to make sure that the table where tech is created is as the birth as the people that it served. Now, why is it so notoriously in the status and it's it's all about history.

It's all about pattern matching. Um. The history of tech started off largely with women and men, but there was this point in time when the narrative switched to only focus on what the men have done and not on what the women have done. And what we've been trying to work against is that very narrative from the beginning. And so that's what we do. You know, our our organization exists to make sure that the plate the people who create tech mirror the societies for whom they created.

Has there been progress? What has been the progress say over the last five years brenda as relates to the tech industry, So yes, there's progress. You know, we are definitely glass testol around this this whole opportunity. Now. Of course, our namesake, Anita Board, who started the organization some thirty years ago, had a goal which was fifty fifty. We obviously didn't make that and we actually actually did a little backsliding before we've gone forward. But yes, there are

some strides being made. We have a Top Companies program, which is the only program that focuses on the equity around women in tech in great companies who are doing that work. And what we've seen is those companies who are willing to put in the work, who are willing to do those things that we know work. I mean, we don't have to guess, we know what works. UM saw a great strides last year. We saw them move five percentage points versus the overall industry that normally hovers

around just less than a percentage point. You know, I wonder how much the problem is in the link to finance in terms of successes Brenda, because you know, I've always thought of the tech industry as one where anyone, no matter what you look like or who you are, you can get into it because you're doing it usually from a computer and your mom's basement, right, so, um,

no one sees you. But then, of course, when you come up with this idea, even if it's only with a couple of friends in the garage, you need some Wall Street banker guys to back you before you can grow. It is that why you've seen, uh, this inequality some of it, right, it's part of it. Yes, there's this thing, this insidious thing called pattern matching, where you know, in order to get backing, you've got to have this warm intro. And normally this warm intro comes from people that are

in your network. And unfortunately a lot of people who have the money to invest um that our vcs um they all look alike and they don't do people that are in their network are the ones that end up getting the money. Um, it's actually a loss for them. Because we know that diverse teams, the diverse leadership the verse boards produced a better bottom line than those that are not. So what we're hoping is to be able to continue to beat that drum and help people understand

that this is really in there. Um, it's in their favor to think about diversity and not only think about it, but to implement it. How is the pandemic kind of impacted women? We know that's been very difficult in terms of childcare and so on and so forth. Give us your thoughts on kind of what you've seen. Well, yeah, I mean, we know the losses for women across the board have been larger than that for men. We know that the job loss that the last the last month

of last year, all of those jobs were lost by women. UM. Of course, intact we've seen you know a little different sort of UM impact because women are able to work at home and and and um be able to do their work UM in a way that allows them to continue. But the pressure has come. I mean, we're one year into this and we've seen that the pressure has come on women because they're doing triple duty. They were already

doing double duty. Right now it's a triple duty if the kids are at home, UM, and they're teaching the kids at home, if they have older parents that they used to have support for. It's bringing pressure. And what's caught What what it's going to ultimately cause if we aren't careful, is a brain drain of these amazingly talented and experienced women who have to take a step back

because of these additional pressures. Just quickly want to mention Grace Hopper, which is well, she is a famous UM I guess, I guess the original coder right from World War Two, from from from from the from the Navy. And it's something also that you do every year sort of deadicated while in Grace Hopper's name. Yes, absolutely. We have the largest Women in Tech conference UH in the world.

We have one in the US, and we have the largest in Asia UM and we do dedicated not only in her name, but in the name of lots of other amazing women who really were the foundation of tech. They have a lot to do with a lot of the strength in tech that we enjoy today. Hey, Brenda, thank you so much for joining us to really appreciate it. Brenda Dartin Wilkinson, President and CEO of Anita be dot Or