Alan Baum Forecasts 2016 Auto Sales: Flat to Last Year (Audio) - podcast episode cover

Alan Baum Forecasts 2016 Auto Sales: Flat to Last Year (Audio)

Jul 01, 20168 min
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Episode description

(Bloomberg) -- Taking Stock with Kathleen Hays and Pimm Fox. GUEST: Alan Baum, Principal at Baum and Associates, a West Bloomfield, Michigan-based research firm focused on automotive, for analysis of June auto sales and Tesla's autopilot car crash.

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Global business news twenty four hours a day at Bloomberg dot com, the Radio plus mobile last and on your radio. This is a Bloomberg Business Flash from Bloomberg World Headquarters. I'm Katherine Cowdery Bloomberg. Taking Stock is brought to you by national realty providers of one satisfaction guaranteed New York City realty investments. See them at m r i A dot net. We check the markets every fifteen minutes throughout the trading day. Now, let's go over to the First

Word Breaking news desk for today's afternoon call with Bill Maloney. Bill, Good afternoon, Katherine. Modest gains for US stocks today, with the Dow currently higher by thirty five points, sp S

gain five and AzaC rises twenty three. Over in Europe, Spain rose one point three percent, the UK climbed one point one percent back in the U s mall cap six hundred is little changed, and the US tenure yield at one point for four six out of tennis to be sectors are highered by gains in consumer discretionary, telecom and healthcare. Financial's, consumer staples and utilities led to the

down side down. Transports rise seventy three Nazarbotech's outperform climbing fifty and the DAT and the vix is down by five point eight percent. Down leaders included Home Depot, Fiser, and Caterpillar, while JP Morgan and DuPont led to the downside until news Edita is said to plan assets sales to address anti trust concerned over its deal with Humana. Micrimes dropped ten percent after its earnings, where Holly Davidson served as much as seventeen percent. That's the most since

two thousand nine. Live from the first breaking news a scone Bill Maloney, Katherine, thank you, Bill and to hear live breaking news over your Bloomberg type s q U a K on your terminal. West Texas Intermediate crude oil is up eighty four cents of barrel one and three quarters percent at seventeens. About gold up twenty three dollars announced at thirteen sixty ten year treasury up seven thirty seconds with the yield of one point four four percent.

And in a breaking story, a group of as money is nine gunmen that have attacked a restaurant popular with four warners in a diplomatic zone of the Bangladeshi capital on Friday, night. Now authorities say they have taken hostages and they've exchanged gunfire with security forces. Some foreigners are believed to be the hostages. We'll have more details as they become available. And that's a Bloomberg Business flash. This is taking Stock with Kathleen Hayes and Prim Fox on

Bloomberg Radio. A mixed bag for US auto sales last month raises the question more than ever after a very hot year last year, have sales peaked in the United States. General Motors, Toyota, Chrysler, Honda, all saying Friday that their sales in June trailed analyst estimates, although Nissan and Ford Motor beat projections. In fact, Nissan saw their sales pop

some thirteen percent to a June record. He's about to tell us where the auto industry is, where it's heading next, about a big drop in b W sales and some is from Tesla that has people wondering about the future of self driven cars. Alan Baum, principle at Baum and Associates. He's joining us from the heart of the auto industry in West Bloomfield, Michigan. Alan, good afternoon, and good afternoon

to you. So what do you know what can you say from this report about the strength of demand for US cars and trucks, Well, it is, uh, it's it's good, it's not great. UH. The thing to be a little concerned about. You know, we're still two percent ahead of last year year to date. But what kind of flies under the radar is that last fall we had annual sales rates um in in uh as say, in the fall at eighteen million rate uh in UH in those months, and obviously that's gonna be a hard nut to crack

this year. So the fact that we're ahead a little bit so far this year does not to me suggest that that's going to continue. I think we're gonna be by the end of the year. We're just gonna be flat with last year. Now that's not horrible. That's seventeen and a half billion units, and I think we'll go down from there again, not horribly U. But what we're seeing is one of the things I was looking for

today was the pickup story. UM. As you they remember, Jim has been on the wolf pack a little bit with respect to the strength of their pickup versus Ford UH. And they actually came out on the short end of it this month. UM. And they were down, Ford was up uh and so was the ram UH brand. Now what I don't know, and we'll see you the next few days, is how incentives flew out there? What was the uh the approach that that the automakers took. But clearly GM is trying to dent UH that was in

fact their their strategy. And though that uh Ford in n f C A at least in June, it didn't work. Um So you know that matters a because of course with the huge profitability exactly so in terms of the Big three, what how does their profitability look to you this year? Good for investors or maybe not so hot? No, I think they're doing quite well. Like you know, when I talk about incentives, we haven't had very uh. GM has been restrained in their incentives. They're reducing their their

fleet sales. UH So from the profitability standpoint, they're good. But so is Florid because Florida has a full year of availability of the F series and this fall they'll have the new Super Duty, which will increase transaction prices yet again for a very popular model. Um GM has also continued to do well with the large utilities, which of course are incredibly profitable now on the car side, the only glimmer of hope really from GM is the

new Malibu, which is a great car and it's selling well. Uh. The Cruise, on the other hand, it is not and it is a it's a new car as well and not doing so well. Okay, Alan, two more questions. I want to get in before we have to say goodbye. VW sales down twenty two per cent? Is their eighth straight drop? Can they turn this around? They can turn

it around, but not soon. And you know the problem is, even with the announcement of the settlement, it says nothing about getting their existing diesel new cards back on the market. So that's going to continue and uh. And the result is there incentives they're huge, just to get people in their show rooms. US regulators are investigating a fatal accident involving a Tesla motor sedan that was driving on autopilot of forty year old man killed in Ohio. The Tesla

didn't read the side of a big truck. What does this mean for the future of auto drive self driven cars? Seems to me it's only one, but you know it was my husband or brother. I might think twice. And if it's test foot It gets a lot of attention because of course everything Tesla does gets a lot of attention. That's said, uh, this is an unusual situation. They have said that they are putting out data software uh, in the in the self driving realm, which of course is

an unusual thing in cars. It's not an unusual thing on your on your iPhone or on your keyboard. So this is They'll get through this. Um, There'll be some issues that have to be addressed. Well, Alan Baum, we know you'll come back and discuss those issues with us. It's a fascinating story, such an important trend in the auto industry. Our sympathy to the family of the man who was killed in Ohio. It was Alan Boum, principal at Baum and Associates. I'm Kathleen Hayes. This is taking

Stock and this is Bloomberg. What's next for the stock market following the Brexit? What are central banks going to do to keep the global economy on track? And what does it mean for your portfoliobo ob coming up. This is Bloomberg.

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