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Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow.
Here are the stories we're following today, Karen.
Momentum is building in the market for a possible longer ceasefire between the US and Iran, the source tells Bloomberg News. Both sides are considering a two week extension to allow for more talks around contentious issues like reopening the Strait of horror moves and Iran's nuclear program. White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt says the US has not asked for a formal extension yet.
We've remained very much engaged in these negotiations. In these talks, you heard from the Vice President directly and the President this week that these conversations are productive and ongoing, and that's where we are right now.
Press Secretary Caroline Levitt at the White House. We get more from Bloomberg's Jumana Bursecci in Dubai.
No date has been set, there's no official confirmation yet that these talks are happening. Actually, the White House Press Secretory Caroline Levitt said yesterday that the US had not put in a formal proposal to extend the seasfire by two weeks, but she did say if another round of talks are going to be held, they would likely be held in Islamabad in Pakistan. And Pakistan for their port
I will say are working the diplomatic channels aggressively. The Army chief site semineers in Tehran for ceasefire talks and meeting with some of the chief negotiators on the Iranian side. The Iranian state media are reporting that the US have relayed a message via the Pakistani mediators to the Iranian side, so we'll see what their response is going to be.
In the meantime, Bloomberg's Jumani Barsetti reports the US naval blockade of the Strait of Hornmuz continues. Iran State Television reports the Iranian military sees prolonging the blockade as a prelude to a breach of the ceasefire.
Well if in former Secretary of State John Carey played a key role in the nuclear deal with the Rum that President Trump rejected in his first term, he tells Bloomberg's fancy in Lachwa could have been avoided if the President had stuck with the deal.
What's happened is a war that had been certainly postponed and probably avoided. Most likely it was made inevitable almost when the President pulled out, and we are where we are but now.
Secretary Kerry says the blockade of the Strait of Juamuz could be a smart decision to pressure Iran, but only if the US is willing to compromise.
The Karen talks are scheduled to continue now between Israel and Lebanon, and Israeli official says Prime Minister Benjamin NETANYAHUO and Lebanese President Joseph Ayun will speak today following ambassador level talks in the US earlier this week. Those were the first direct discussions between the Middle Eastern countries in more than three decades.
Month in a series of suspiciously well timed trades in the oil futures market during the war has caught the attention of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Bloomberg's Amy Morris has more from Washington.
Investigators are looking into instances over a peer of about two weeks where trading volumes surged just before major announcements and policy pivots by President Trump that raised alarm bells about the potential misuse of non public information tied to Trump's shifting stance on the war in Iran. The CFTC wants to see the data from the exchanges, including who was behind the trades. That investigation is now focused on trading of oil futures contracts on platforms belonging to CME
Group and enter Continental Exchange in Washington. Amy Morris Bloomberg Radio. Amy Thanks back on Wall Street. The global stock market rally continues this morning. Stocks in Japan closed at an all time high. The MSCI All Country Index, which had dropped as much as nine percent since the start of the war, has erased those declines, and the S and P five hundred closed above the seven thousand level for the first time, while the Nasdaq one hundred also ended
the yesterday session at an all time high. Wall Street veteran Ed Yardenny says investors are looking past the war and focusing now on fundamentals.
When you look at the history of geopolitical crises, especially as they affected the S and P five hundred, history shows that geopolitical crisis turned out to be great buying opportunities. So just when everything looks most dire and grim, that's when investors come in and conclude that the war will eventually end and peace will follow.
At Yard Denny with your Denny Research notes the S and P five hundred reached its bottom on March thirtieth, Well, Nathan.
Despite the market optimism, voices at this week's World Bank and International Monetary Fund meetings in Washington are more cautious. IMF Managing Director Chris de Alina Georgieva says investors maybe underestimating the economic damage from the war.
Why are markets so optimistic? I think part of the reason is because there is a high concentration of financial assets in the United States. US economy is doing well. It is relatively not so impacted because the US is a now export and not importer, and that creates that picture of dynamism and vibrancy. But I can tell you that's not the story of the rest of the world. In the rest of the world already there is a lot of pain.
I am F Managing Director Kristallina Georgiaeva made the comments in an interview with Bloomberg's Friends, saying, lochwa catch our full conversation with Georgiaeva and former Secretary of State John Kerry and our new video experience on the Bloomberg Business App.
Well, let's check some stocks in the news this morning. Now, Karen Taiwan's Semiconductor Manufacturing is raising its revenue outlook for the year. The upbeat forecast underscores the resilience of AICHIP demand despite concerns about the economic fallout from the war CSMC is the main chip maker for Nvidia and Apple. It expects revenue to grow more than thirty percent.
This afternoon, Nathan we get earnings from a streaming giant, Netflix, and Bloomberg's Town Busby has a preview.
Well, this is the first earnings report from Netflix and to walked away from an ugly battle to acquire most of Warner Brothers.
Discovery.
Analysts expect the company to report a fifteen percent increase in revenue thanks to live sporting and concert events and from advertising. Raising its subscription fee in March to twenty dollars for the standard plan without ads also helped Bloomberg consensus calls for revenue of twelve point one seven billion dollars on earnings per share of seventy six cents. Tom Busby Bloomberg Radio Okay Tom.
Thanks to a federal jury in New York has found Live Nation Entertainment illegally monopolized the live events industry and overcharged fans. The verdict marks a major win for a coalition of thirty three states and Washington, DC that pursued this case despite the Justice Department's recent settlement that allowed Live Nation to keep its ticket master unit. Jenniferree is a senior antitrust litigation analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence.
I think this ruling is significant because, honestly, it's been over the years very very difficult for plaintiffs to win monopolization suits against bacmpanies, and in particular a suit like this one where the federal government is no longer in the case because they settled, and it's a group of states only going out on their own. And it just shows that that plaintiffs can win these monopolization suits where they have compelling evidence, even where it's really hard fought by the defense.
Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Jenri says the states are now seeking as much as seven hundred million dollars in damages and possibly additional penalties. Live Nation says it will appeal.
Time now for a look at some many of their stories making news in New York and around the world, and for that we're joined by Bloomberg's Michael Barr.
Michael, good Morning, Good Morning Karen. Today, New Jersey voters will pick Governor Monkey Cheryl's replacement in Congress. Cheryl had to give up her eleventh district seat after being elected. Governor Randolph Mayor Joe Hathaway is the Republican nominee.
One of my big platforms is to freeze taxes for first time home buyers.
Home ownership in New Jersey is more challenging than ever.
Progressive Annaliliya Mahea is the Democratic nominee.
We lost the healthcare tax credits because of the Republican Party, and now healthcare costs are up one hundred and seventy five percent in one year. We lost energy tax credits and that's why energy prices are up.
Audio courtesy of ABC seven New York City. Dorman and other staff voted to authorize a strike, which would disrupt operations at co ops, condos, and apartment buildings as soon as April twenty first. The workers are pushing back against possible reductions in healthcare coverage, advocating for pay hikes and demanding that building owners strengthen the pension fund. The fallout continues after Vice President Vance made comments about Pope Leo's
criticism of the war in Iran. The Vice President said Pope Leo should be careful when he talks about matters of theology. Yesterday, House Speaker Mike Johnson weighed in on the comments.
It is a very well settled matter of a Christian theology.
There's something called the just war doctrine, a time to every purpose under heaven.
The pope criticized President Trump's rhetoric about destroying a civilization. New Yorkers have been soaking up some sun as some parts of the country deal with damaging severe storms. The East Coast is enjoying eighty five to ninety degree days. This woman was out in Washington Square Park.
How abready the.
UVS eight so trying to tan.
Yeah, got some.
Ice cream today. Once again it will be mostly sunny man.
Huh.
Global news twenty four hours a day and whenever you wanted with Bloomberg News now, not Michael barn, this is Bloomberg hearen.
Thanks Michael.
Time now for our Bloomberg sports update, and for that we bring in John stash hour.
Thanks Garrett Twomore NBA play in games. Philadelphia had to play without Joe Lmby due to his appendectomy. The Sixers still beat Orlando one oh nine ninety seven. That makes Philly the seventh seed in the East. They'll play the Celtics in the first round. It means the Magic will play again on Friday at home against Charlotte and the Winter will be the eighth seed. Played Detroit Golden Stay led by Steph Curry over the Clippers in LA. That moves the Warriors to a game tomorrow in Phoenix to
see who'll be the eighth seed in the West. The season over for the Clippers. That's the Bloomberg Sports Update.
Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Daybreak coming up after this.
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Good morning on Nathan Hager. There's some optimism now that the break in fighting between the US and Iran could last a little longer. Bloomberg News has learned both countries are considering a ceasefire extension the White House. Press Secretary Caroline Levitt says the US hasn't asked for one yet.
I saw some reporting, again bad reporting this morning, that we had formally requested an extension of the ceasefire. That is not true at this moment.
That was Press Secretary Caroline Levit at the White House yesterday joining us this morning from Dubai is Bloomberg Mida Least corresponded Jumana Brossecci, the anchor of Bloomberg Horizons. So Jumana just to pick up on what Caroline leve was saying. What is true this morning? What do we know about the prospect for further talks? Good morning?
Yeah, well, Caroline love it. They're saying that the US had not formally requested a c's for our extension. But she also went on to say that if there were going to be if there was going to be a second round of talks, it would likely happen in Islamabad. And we know that the diplomatic channels are being actively worked. Over the last twenty four hours, the Chief of Army
of Pakistan made a visit to Tehran. Apparently he is conveying messages from the US, and those messages have been relaid back and forth, so Pakistan also acting as sort of a message go between between the US and Iran here. At the same time, the Pakistani Prime Minister, long alongside the delegation, is making a trip through the region. Yesterday
he was in Saudi Arabia. Today he's heading to Katar, and then he's going to Turkey and again all of those three countries, increasingly more so Saudi Arabia as well, looking to play some form of a diplomatic mediation role should these talks go ahead. But I should say at this point, no time and no venue has been confirmed.
Okay, Well, we've heard from President Trump saying that the next two days could be key toward getting potentially a big deal. I believe that was two days ago. What's the prospect of that at this point.
Well, there is a clock that's sticking in the background, and it's less to do with Trump's deadline and more to do with the ceasefire x fire, which I guess that goes back to President Trump, But technically it expires on the twenty second over here in the region, twenty first in the US, and so we do have a couple of more days before decision has to be made
about whether that ceasfire expires, whether it continues. Remember yesterday we were reporting that at the same time as we're speaking about the big efforts on the diplomatic side of things, there has continued to be a build up military assets in the region as well. So perhaps from the US perspective, looking to continually apply a pressure to the Iranian side
to come back to the table. But at the same time, you've got all of those mediators and even I would say, and I should have mentioned this before, even the UAE received a call from the Iranian Speaker of the parliament yesterday, the first time that UE has spoken to Iran since the inception of the war. So there is a feeling from the region that there's momentum to de escalate. What shape or format we just don't know yet.
Okay, Well, in the meantime, of course, we have this trickle moving through the strait of hormones, the blockade of the blockade as it were, How does that potentially complicate things? And are Iran's leaders in Iran's military on the same page when it comes to enforcement of the blockade.
Yeah, So what we understand is there are a couple of sticking points still when it comes to those negotiations. One of them, of course, still the fate of the strait, so to speak. The Central commands that are saying, and they said they've iterated this overnight that they have full superiority over maritime shipping, that there have been around a dozen merchant vessels that have been forced to turn back and go back to Iranian ports. As you say, there's
still a trickle of vessels coming in. They're being closely monitored, and it's quite difficult to monitor because many of them just turned their signals off as they're passing through the strait. But the point is we're very far away from where we were before the war even kicked off, and now half a dozen vessels going through the street today isn't
going to move the needle on energy. But I think the objective, as we spoke about yesterday, is really for the US to apply increasing the economic pressure on Iran to cut off this key lifeline for their oil exports, that when they do come to the next round of negotiations, they potentially would be more open to give concessions.
This is Bloombery Daybreak, your morning podcast and the stories making news from Wall Street to Washington and beyond.
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