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Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the stories we're following today, Karen.
Relief is sweeping through markets and the world. With the US and Iran pulling away from the brink forty days into the Middle East war, President Trump announced a two week ceasefire last night, subject to Tehran reopening the strait of horror moves. The move came hours after the President warned, quote, a whole civilization will die tonight if Iran did not give in to his demands. Pakistan mediated to urge the
President to back away from that threat. Daniel Biman is director of the Warfare, Irregular Threats, and Terrorism Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
President Trump was clearly moving towards a decision moment, and today it was either going to be significant escalation or some sort of deal. And he can now claim that it was his threats that led the Iranians to the negotiating table. It's quite possible he could have got this deal several weeks ago, so I'm not quite sure that's right.
Daniel Biman with the Center for Strategic and International studies. Bloomberg's Jumana Barsecci reports it remains to be seen whether this two week pause leads to a lasting end to hostilities.
Overnight, the National Supreme Security Council of Iran published ten points, a very long missive that they published and included in those points other than the full lifting of sanctions, the end of hostilities, the withdrawal of US from bases in the region, and control of the Straits. Obviously, many of those are non starters for the US. They've also stipulated that the war against all of their components of the so called Axis of Resistance should be halted immediately.
Bloomberg's Jumana Barsecci reports President Trump is calling Iran's ten point plan a workable basis for negotiations, and he says the US will assist in allowing safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. House also says Israel has agreed to the ceasefire, but Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyah, who says it does not extend to Lebanon, where Israel is waging a parallel war with hesbela.
Well Nathan reaction pouring in around the world to the temporary Shiesh fire. Dahlia Fahmi is director of International Relations and Diplomacy at Long Island University.
What we're seeing in this plan put forward is that Iran is actually perhaps putting a proposal for the future. For its future, it kind of guaranteed taking advantage of this moment.
If you look at this on the US side, the goalpost.
Of so called success has shifted significantly. Initially it was complete regime change, then complete destruction of the ballistic military capacity, and then it moved to nuclear Enrichmond, and now it's simply opening the Strait of Harmuz, which is what we heard from President Trump today. The strait was opened before the war, and so what the signals is that in terms of coming to the brink which we are at
just a few hours ago. It seems that Iran perhaps isn't a position with a greater bargaining range than the United States is.
And as Long Island Universities Dalia Facmo notes that both the US and Iran are portraying the ceasefire as a victory, but significant differences remain between their demands to bring the war to a complete end.
Well, Karen, we are seeing huge movements in energy markets this morning, checking oil once again. West Texas Intermediate CREWED is down more than fifteen and a half percent, trading above ninety five dollars a barrel. Brent is down more than thirteen percent, just shy of ninety five dollars. Refined product prices are falling as well, with benchmark European diesel futures dropping as much as twenty three percent. Will Kennedy covers the energy markets for Bloomberg.
The big question, of course, is the terms under which they might be able to make those voyages. Iran has asserted its light to charge for passage and to control passage through the strait during the conflict, and has proposed a more permanent aragement where it would levy fees on ships for passage. That will be controversial, to say the least with the US and other countries around the world, and it will be very interesting to see how far
Bylan insists on that. But in the near future, traders will just want to see the ships move and for traffic to resume at some kind of pace, if not the pace before the conflict work out.
Bloomberg's Bill Kennedy says, even with today's job, WTI crew is still up more than forty percent since the conflict began on the last day of February.
Only then, several airline executives say it will take several months to normalize even if the Strait of horm Moves is opened. And as a root in Bakar is the CEO of the Malaysia Aviation Group.
The impact the Middle East area not only just the supply of the fuel and the crude oil is at the refineryselves. Even if if the war stops, I personally believe it is going to take many, many mire months for the price to stabilize.
And Malaysia Aviation in groups and as a root in Bakar made the comments at the International air Transport World to Data Symposium in Singapore.
Turning two equity markets this morning, they are jumping, led by Nasdaq futures up three and a half percent or eight hundred and forty five points. SMP futures are up two and two thirds percent or one hundred and seventy seven points. In Down futures hire by eleven hundred and twenty eight points, that is a gain of almost two
and a half percent. In Europe, the Stocks fifty is hired by three and a half percent, and in Asia, Japan's knee ke stock average closed higher by more than four or five percent.
Well, Nathan, the rapid shifts in the war have seen stock trading intensifying. We get the details at Bloomberg's John Tucker.
Investors wary of being wrong footed by twists and turns of the conflict are trading stocks at a record intensity. One technical metric, the daily turnover in the State Street spider S and P five hundred ETF trust has breached sixty billion dollars. That is a reading seen as a quote freakout indicator by Bloomberg Intelligence strategists twenty nine times this year. That record compares to twenty eight times in
all of twenty twenty five. Buying on weakness has been rewarded in recent years, with markets eventually bouncing to erase declines spurred by everything from the COVID pandemic to the worst inflation scare in decades. Seasonality may also prove a tail when the S and P five hundred has notched an average April gain of one and a half percent since nineteen ninety. In New York Time, John Tucker, Bloomberg Radio.
All right, John, thank you Following a couple of important stories in politics, this morning, Vice President JD. Vance is criticizing the European Union for what he sees as meddling in Hungary's election. Vans spoke alongside Prime Minister Victor Orbin on a visit to Budapest ahead of Sunday's vote.
What has happened in the midst of this election campaign is one of the worst examples of foreign and election interference that I've ever seen, or ever even read about. The bureaucrats and Brussels have tried to destroy the economy of Hungary. They have tried to make Hungary less energy independent.
They have tried to drive up costs.
For Hungarian consumers. And they've done it all because they hate this guy.
Vice President and Vance gave no evidence for his claims, and no EU leader has campaigned alongside the opposition in Hungary. Independent polls show Orban's party is on track to lose power after sixteen years.
And let's turn to US politics now, Nathan. The race to fill Marjorie Taylor Green's open house seat in Georgia is complete and with nearly all the votes counted in the special runoff election, Republican Clay Fuller is projected to be to Democrat Sean Harris by a nearly twelve point margin fifty five point nine to forty four point one percent. Fuller told his supporters his victory could offer a blueprint for the midterms.
When Republicans are united, when we share a common purpose, and when we understand what's at stake, we win.
But Harris says he plans to run again in the general election.
If we get out.
In full, if we get out and.
Speak our boys, we will win this election every time this election come.
And Clay Fuller's victory last night expands the Republican's narrow House majority to two hundred eighteen to two hundred and fourteen plus one Independent. Time now for a look at some of the other stories making news in New York and around the world and forever. Were joined by Bloomberg's Michael Barr Michael good Morning, Good Morning.
Karen, a Long Island architect accused in a string of long unsolved slangs known as the Gilgo Beach killings, is expected to plead guilty. Rex Huerman is charged with murdering seven women. A guilty plea would put him in prison for the rest of his life. Huerman is also expected to plead guilty today and the death of an eighth woman, Karen Vergana, was a thirty four year old from Manhattan
who disappeared in nineteen ninety six. Last year, a judge rejected his bid to exclude DNA evidence obtained through advanced techniques that prosecutors say proves he's the killer. He previously pleaded not guilty. Meanwhile, Huerman is being sued, along with his former wife and their daughter, by the son of one of the alleged victims, Benjamin Taurus. The son of Valerie Mack, claims his mother was tortured ferociously and her
body dismembered. Robert Macedonio is the attorney for Huerman's ex Asa ellerup and daughter, Victoria Huerman.
The individual responsible act of the law Rex Schumann has been indicted and charged with a series of homicides, and he will have his name in court to.
Answer with his charges.
Macedonio called the lawsuit reckless, saying Victoria Huerman was just three years old at the time of the murders. NASA officials say the Artemis two crew is back within the influence of Earth's gravity and still on schedule to splash down on Friday, Artemis two. Lunar science lead doctor Kelsey Young said during the lunar flyby, the crew observed new on the Moon surface right away.
They started describing the green around Aristarkus Plateau and different brown hughes, and these colors really help tell us nuances about the chemistry of lunar material.
About half of New Yorker's approve of Mayor Zorimumdanni's job performance as he approaches his one hundredth day in office. That's according to a New Mayor's pole. Global news twenty four hours a day and whenever you want it with Bloomberg News Now Michael Barr and this is Bloomberg Karen.
Thanks Michael.
Time now for our Bloomberg Sports update, and for that we bring in John stash Hour.
Nice there are.
The Dodgers are the two times depending World Series champions, favorites to win a three pete and in Toronto, where they won Game seven last fall, they beat the Blue Jays four to one. Of the Dodgers are off to a nine and two start. The Yankees are eight and two, four runs in the eighth didning of Medversorio his second home run of the night, and the Yanks beat the A's five to three. The Lakers are playing without their three best players, Luca don Stch maybe for the rest
of the season, also Austin Ree and Lebron James. Lakers lost at home to Oklahoma City by thirty six as the Bloomberg Sports Update.
Stay with us. More from Bloomberg day Break coming up after this.
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Good Morning on Nathan Hager. A two week pause. President Trump says he is putting his war with Iran on hold, hours after threatening to wipe out its whole civilization if it would not reopen the Strait of horm movez Saamvakils, director of the Middle East and North Africa Program at Chatham House.
This is a welcome pause. This is a war that nobody was winning. All sides have come out much weaker. But I still remain cautious because Iran's demands are really quite extreme, and it's hard to see them coming out having achieved everything.
Saddam Vakil with Chatham House for more. We are joined from Dubai by Bloomberg Middle East correspondent and anchor of Bloomberg Horizons, Jumana Bursecchi, along with Bloomberg News Deputy Washington Bureau Chief Laura Davison. It's good to have both of you with us this morning. Jumana. I'll start with you. Where does this two week pause leave things in Irran? What are the chances that this leads to a more permanent solution?
Good morning, Yeah, that's the question on everyone's mind this morning. It certainly feels tenuous. I will say before that that the entire region is breathing a sigh of relief that the very worst case scenario didn't materialize and President Chump didn't follow through on some of those threats. Of course, the language got increasingly strident as the war went on, So there is a sense of relief this morning, but again a lot of questions about whether this semi this
temporary truth can actually turn into something more permanent. And namely because if we go back to the starting points all discuss did the upcoming negotiations between both the US and Iran, they're still very very far apart, and in the middle of the night yesterday Iran actually presented their ten point proposal, and some of those demands are extremely maximalist, including them maintaining that they have a right of sovereignty
over passage of ships through the Strait of Hormos. They are asking for assurances that the war won't happen again. They're asking for war reparations, and the right to actually continue within Richmond as well. Many of those are non starters for the US, but obviously he's formed the foundation of the upcoming likely discussions that are going to take place, most likely in Islamabads at the end of the week.
To that point, Laura, we heard President Trump called that ten point plan from Iran a workable basis for negotiations. What happened to the fifteen point plan from the US?
Plans, you know, have been consistently changing over the past several weeks, and this has been sort of a you know, a point of contention going into the ceasefire is what exactly are the basis for these negotiations. The White House has said this ten point plan that Jumana mentioned, However, the White House has declined to confirm what those ten points are. You know, Trump has said that some of the reporting out there is inaccurate, but hasn't suggested exactly
what the basis of negotiations are happening here. So we have a scenario where you have you know, Trump sort of suggesting that, you know, lots of these points are agreed to, but in that ten point document, you know, those would are many things that would be non starters
for the US. So we have a you know, perhaps going into this two weeks seas fire with a little bit of a misunderstanding or perhaps overly rosy glasses from the US and potentially also from Iran as to exactly where each of the two sides stand at this moment.
And of course there's been so much focus now in the last few days on reopening the strait of horror moves as opposed to some of the other objectives that President Trump has laid out here. Jumana, what is the difficulty for getting traffic to move through that straight.
Well, the difficulty is that the Iranian Foreign Minister, even when saying that they had accepted the seas fire, also maintained that vessels would still have to get permission from Iran armed forces over the next couple of weeks. So they're still once again reiterating that they effectively have control over who and what gets to pass through the straits safely.
And already we started to hear from various ministries of foreign affairs in the region, the likes of Katar Saudi Arabia putting up posts just in the last half an hour saying that they while they welcomed the seasfire, they also would like to see a return to the former status quo where shipping was free, available for oil, and balanced by international maritime law, as opposed to this new
protocol that Iran is trying to set up. So as things stand out, you've got about eight hundred vessels stranded in the Persian Gulf waiting to get a signal that they can leave. Of course, there's a huge backlog, and it's unclear at this point whether any of them or many of them are going to go ahead. And we know that prior to the war, about one hundred to one hundred and twenty vessels would pass through the straight
a day. Now it's trickled down to around maybe half a dozen at most, and most of those vessels would have been Iranian length so we'll see what happens in the next couple of days.
And this idea of Iran taking tolls to allow passage through the strait, arguably it puts them in a much more much different position than was as you mentioned, just a few weeks ago when passage was free. Where does this Laura leave the US in this two week window now to try to come up with some kind of resolution when it comes to how things move through the strait.
This is going to be the big question going into these talks, and suggests that perhaps two weeks is not enough time to get that negotiated, which could mean that we're looking at a much longer, sort of short term ceasefire while these finer are negotiated. But you know, if Iran, you know, is coming into these the ceasefire with with effective control over the straight of horror moves, they've suggested
they will allow ships to pass. But exactly what that looks like and how much control they over that have over that remains to be seen. But if they are, you know, able to have some sort of veto power or the ability to collect tolls that gives them a leverage over the global economy that they didn't have before the start of this war. The Trump has said he wants free travel, he wants to have the essentially the straight of horm moves return to what it was like
before the war. But that's going to be that's the trump card that Iran has, and that's going to be one of the things that they're going to want to hold on to the longest. Of course, that's the thing
that Trump also wants to see relieve the most. So this creates a lot of tension going into these talks, you know, And of course the key point being here that this has a lot of effect over what oil prices are doing, over what gas prices are doing, and that is one of Trump's key concerns politically, domestically as well as economically.
And Juman of course, all this comes to hours after President Trump threatened to lay waste to the country, essentially saying a whole civilization would be wiped out tonight. What to make of the extreme back and forth here from President Trump.
Yeah, well, the language didn't go down well with anyone, i'd say, from the region, even his allies in the region. Obviously, it was deemed to be one step too far, and some people are actually saying that is what incentivized them or President Trump to back down, because he got so
much pushback after that post. It seems as though Pakistan really made a last ditched effort to try to bring all sites together jd Vance, according to you know, overnight reportings seemed to have played a pivotal role as well. And then also President Trump crediting China too with bringing Iran to the negotiating table. So I guess it's one of those questions of you know, maybe he had to go that far down the escalation chain in order for
things to de escalate. But at the same time, I think many people in the region would have deemed those comments to be quite insulting and diminutive and reductive and really unpresidential. So you know, the limit of what was acceptable got increasingly tested over time, and as the war went on, it was apparent that President Trump was becoming frustrated. Now this just you know, as we said, everyone's breathing
a sigh of relief. It's a chance for a reset and let's see whether cooler heads prevail in becoming weeks.
This is Bloomberg Daybreak, your morning podcast on the stories making news from Wall Street to Washington and beyond.
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