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Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the stories we're following today.
Karen, we begin with the latest developments on global trade. President Trump is threatening a thirty five percent tariff on some Canadian goods. That's an increase from the current twenty five percent rate and would take effect August first. But as Bloomberg's Bill Ferries reports, the increase would not affect goods that are shipped under the terms of the current US Mexico Canada agreement.
That might be a little misleading as a headline number. I mean, our understanding of this is that it would not apply to products or goods and services that are already covered under this US MCA trade agreement with Mexico, Canada and the US. So that's the majority of goods traded between the US and Canada right there. So things like energy as well are subject to a lower ten
percent tariff. In terms of thirty five percent, I think we're going to need a lot more details from the White House before that goes into place about which products, But it doesn't look like that kind of broad swath of tariffs across everything that comes south from Canada.
And Bloomberg spil Ferries reports.
President Trump's announcement on Canada came as he told NBC News he's also eyeing blanket tariffs of fifteen to twenty percent on most trading partners well Nathan.
Vietnam is seeking to lower its tariff rate by the US. Sources say the country's leadership was caught off guard by President Trump's announcement last week of a twenty percent tariff. Vietnam is pushing for a tariff in the ten to fifteen percent range.
And Karen Brazilian President Luis and Assio Lula de Silva says his country can survive without trade with the US and we'll look to other partners to replace America. In a broadcast interview, Lula said Brazil's trade with the US represents one point seven percent of its GDP and quoting here, it's not like we can't survive without the US. Earlier this week, President Trump threatened fifty percent tariffs against Brazilian imports.
Meanwhile, Nathan tariffs on China remain in the spotlight. This morning, Secretary of State Margo Rubio met his Chinese Counterpartwang Yi and Malaysia. It's the first in person session between the CHIU and a possible prelude to a presidential summit. The US and China agreed in May to temporarily slash their high tariffs imposed on each other.
Now, when it comes to the impact tariffs will have on inflation, Karen Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis President Albertomusalem says it's too soon to tell.
He spoke at an event in Saint Louis yesterday.
The outlook for inflation that I have, in accordance with what many private forecasters have, is for inflation to increase going forward, mostly owing to tariffs, which may settle somewhere between the low teens or the low twenties, depending entree Poulsy.
Saint Louis FED President Alberto Mussalm says the tariff impact on inflation has been mild so far, but he expects it to show up more in data starting in June, July, August, or September.
Nathan President Trump says he plans to make a major statement on Russia on Monday. In an interview with NBC News, the President repeated as criticisms of Russian President Vladimir Putin over his continued attacks in Ukraine. He says he expects to send it to pass a tougher sanctions bill sponsored by Republican Lindsey Grahm, though his option on whether to
use it. It's his option, though, on whether to use it, and he says he's reached an agreement with NATO for allies to buy US weapons that would then be sent to Ukraine.
To the latest Karen on the flood disaster in Texas, President Trump plans to visit Hill Country today, where at least one hundred and twenty people were killed in last weekend's flash floods and more than one hundred and seventy are still missing. Fredericksburg, Texas Fire Marshall Reagan Rapki says more than two thousand local, state, and federal workers are still searching for victims in Kerr County.
And we have heavy e quest working and we're having to dig through it by hand as well, just because the machines can go through it.
We have to be very methodical about what we're doing.
It's Fredericksburg Fire Marshall Reagan Rabkey. President Trump's expected to get an aerial tour of some of the hard hit areas and meet with first responders and relatives of flood victims. Texas's two Republican senators are expected to join the President to board Air Force One.
Let's turn to the markets now, Nathan, where futures are lower as we close out the trading week. Yesterday, the S and P five hundred closed at a record as at nears the sixty three hundred level. Veronica Willis is global investment strategist at Wills Fargo Bank.
The market's seen a really impressive rally from those lows earlier this year, maybe has gotten a little bit ahead of itself. There's still some uncertainties related to trade. We've got, you know, earning season coming up, which could start to see some of those impacts around that uncertainty around prices and uncertainty around tariffs.
Wells Fargo Banks Veronica Willis. The S and P five hundred is up almost seven percent so far this year.
Now, while stocks have been reaching new heights, Karen So has Bitcoin. It's trading at another all time high this morning at about one hundred and eighteen thousand dollars per token. Analysts say the rally's triggered a major unwinding of short positions, with more than a billion dollars worth of bets against bitcoin being liquidated. Investors have also poured a net one point two billion dollars into bitcoin ETFs Nathan.
In Europe, the UK economy shrank for eight second straight month as companies and consumers struggle to bounce back from the blow dealt by US tariffs and a raft of tax increases grows. Domestic product declined one ten percent in May, after contracting three tenths percent the previous month.
And staying in Europe Karen. Shares of BP are up two and a half percent. The oil giant says it expects to report rising production and a strong result from its oil trading business for the second quarter.
Time. Now for look at some of the other stories making news in New York and around the world, and for that we're joined by Bloomberg's Michael Barr Michael Goodmore.
Good Morning, Karen. A federal judge in New Hampshire has blocked President Trump to move forward with his ban on birthright citizenship. The Supreme Court determined federal judges could not issue sweeping nationwide injunctions against many of President Trump's policies, but the plaintiffs worked around that ruling by filing a class action lawsuit on behalf of all children born in
the US after February twentieth. Cody Wafsei is the deputy director of the ACLU's Immigrants' Rights Project and the lead attorney on the class action lawsuit.
So, no matter how much the Trump administration may dislike it, they cannot break it, they cannot ignore it. It is the right of every child born in this country.
Palestinian activist Mackmoud Khalil's role in Columbia campus protests against Israel led to his detention for over three months in immigration jail. Now he's seeking twenty million dollars in damages from the Trump administration. His lawyers filed to claim a lledging, false imprisonment, and malicious prosecution after his March arrest by federal agents. Khalil, a legal US resident, said he suffered
severe anguish in jail. The government has accused Khalil of leading protests aligned with a moss but has not provided any evidence of a link. New York City Mayor Eric Adams campaign says he has raised more than a million dollars for his re election effort in a single night at a fundraiser in Manhattan. According to a person familiar with the matter, Wednesday's fundraiser was attended by several hundred
people and more than eight hundred donated. Adams said the passion against Zoron Memdani will ultimately propel him to win a second term. Heard on Bloomberg yesterday, Adams once again said that former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, who is also running as an independent, should drop out of the race.
We both interacted, and I said you should step aside for the good of this city.
We both agreed the city.
Were moving the wrong to deal direction under the primary winner, and I think he should do the right thing.
Global News twenty four hours a day and whenever you want it with Bloomberg News. Now him Michael barrn, this is Bloomberg Herron.
All right, Michael barr thank you some time now for the Bloomberry sports update. Here's John Stanshawer.
John, Good morning, Good morning, Karen.
Late in the Yankees game of Seattle at the stadium, the question was not would the Yankees win, it was would they get a hit? They did not have one through seven innings against the Mariners, Brian Wooge as Chisholm broke up the no hitter, and then he scored on a sack fight and the shutout. And it got interesting when John Carlos Stanton added a pinch at to on homer and even more so were than Austin Wells out two ron game time single bottom of the ninth inning, they went to the tenth the one.
High fly ball centerfield tagging wealty.
The catch is made, Here comes vaulty, here's the throw, here's the play.
Peace say, Yankees win? What's set?
Clive by Choge.
Yankees win six five for no hit, No way, Yes Network The call series sweep Yanks two games behind Toronto's. They begin their finals series before the All Star Break tennight at home against the Cubs the Metza in Kansas City, Code I singa tonight comes off the injured list. The Mets just got swept to the double letter in Baltimore three to one and seven to three. They outrailed the Phillies by a game and a half. The Red Sox, with their seventh straight win on only four hits, would
beat Tampa Bay four to three. National has lost in Saint Louis eight to one. The Wimbledon semifinals for the men, American Taylor Fritz trying to upset the two time defending champion Carlos Alcarez, and then it's the top Seedionix Center against Novak Djokovic, who'll be playing his fifty second career gran s Lam's semifinal. Max Lee Elia, who managed the
Cubs and Phillies, has died at eighty seven. It was in nineteen eighty three, after fans got on his struggling Cubs team, that Ilia delivered the greatest expletive phil Old rant in history, twenty three f bombs. The Cubs only played day games. Then an iliad noted, among many other things, that eighty five percent of the population works in the other fifteen GODA Cubs games Stash air on Bloomberg Sports, Karen.
Nathan Coast to Coast on Bloomberg Radio nationwide on Serious Exam and around the world on Bloomberg dot Com and the Bloomberg Business app. This is Bloomberg Daybreak.
Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager.
On a morning of trade threats rippling through the market once again, President Trump says he could slap thirty five percent tariffs on some Canadian goods, fifteen to twenty for everyone else. And now Vietnam is saying it was caught off guard with the twenty percent announcement that President Trump made last week and is still working to get that teriff right down. Here to work us through all the latest trade headlines this morning, Bloomberg News Senior editor Bill Ferries, Bill,
where to start? I guess with the Canada announcement on social media last night, how to take thirty five percent tariff given that we are under a USMCA agreement still good morning.
Good morning, Nathan. Yeah, the thirty five percent number from President Trump, that's a big headline number, but we still aren't sure what the reality.
Of that means.
I mean, it does seem like from our reporting that a lot of the products or the products that are covered under that US MCA trade agreement are not going to face that thirty five percent tariff. And frankly, that's the that's the majority of goods that Canada is exporting to the US. There's also just the big ticket items like energy, for instance, is facing a ten percent tariff
that's likely to not change under this regime. So there's a big question about exactly how many products will really face that thirty five percent, but it is you know, it's not good news for Canada at all, and it's not good news for all these other countries out there that are still waiting to get letters or still you know, hurriedly trying to negotiate deals.
Yeah, you have to wonder now what those negotiations are going to look like when we've heard the report from NBC News that the president's thinking about a fifteen to twenty percent blanket tariff anyway, Yeah.
And fifteen to twenty percent, you know, in comparison to some of the numbers we saw on April second Liberation Day, that might seem like relatively low numbers, but when you keep in mind that, you know, the average US tariff for years up till January was about two percent. You know, fifteen to twenty percent is a significant increase and would have a big impact on trading partners and the US economy. So it remains to be seen if that's really what's
going to happen. But we have seen the President rolling out these sometimes more than a dozen at a time, these letters just going out naming a tariff rate. Now they have till August first to perhaps try to work that down, but that's a lot of work that would have to get done in just less than three weeks.
And along with the letters, we've seen the rollout so far of just two framework agreements with the UK and Vietnam, and now it seems like there are questions about whether the Vietnam framework was really agreed to by both sides the way they thought it was.
Yeah, this is an exclusive from Bloomberg, but you know, people who are familiar with how the negotiations were going say Vietnamese officials were surprised by Trump's public announcement about the deal and the twenty percent tariff. They had been looking for something lower than that. And it was interesting to note after Trump came out and said twenty percent for Vietnam, the Vietnamese government really never confirmed that agreement at all, and they basically deflected a lot of the
questions that got raised about it. So now it turns that maybe they thought they were getting something else, or we're still in talks for a better deal. So it'll be interesting to see how that plays out after August first as well.
Well.
But what does this tell you about all the negotiations that have been going on, not just with Vietnam but with Canada as well. They've been working for literally months now to try to come to some kind of middle between the US and Canada, and now we've got this thirty five percent announcement.
Yeah.
I mean, at one point we were promised ninety deals in ninety days, and we're so far off the mark when it comes to that at this point, as you mentioned, just two framework deals. It does seem that the President doesn't have a lot of patience for maybe the complexity
of these trade agreements. Even Treasury Secretary Scott Bessen was actually asked at a forum this week what the how we would compare his two big bosses in his life, George Soros and Donald Trump, and he said, well, they're both very impatient when it comes to a high stakes deal. I think we're seeing how that plays out with the White House. Now.
This is Bloombergy day Break, your morning podcast on the stories making news from Wall Street to Washington and beyond.
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And I'm Nathan Hager.
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