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Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager and I'm John Tucker. Here are these stories we're following today.
John, We are seeing stocks rise around the world on growing optimism the US will avoid a recession. The latest data from inflation to jobless claims and retail sales have reassured investors that the world's biggest economy is headed for a Goldilock scenario of contained inflation accompanied by resilient growth. It's got traders lowering their expectations for aggressive FED rate cuts this year. Ian Lincoln is head of US rates strategy at Demo Capital Markets.
I think that what they want to do is they want to prepare the market for a series of rate cuts that are twenty five basis points each spread out over the course of the next eighteen to twenty four months, and they are not going to accomplish that by going fifty. So we think that twenty five should be the baseline assumption unless something goes very awry in the real economy between now and the eighteenth of September, which it doesn't appear to you, especially given the recent.
Dataan lingolned bing Mo notes that ninety basis points the vising are expected by the end of the year.
Yeah.
The economy also in focus in Europe. Yeah, let's get the very latest data point with Bloomberg's ew on Pots in London here on good morning, Good.
Morning, John and Nathan. After retail sales came in hot in the US, signs of an uptick in consumer spending. Here in the UK, retail sales bounced back in July, help by summer discounts, the euro Soccer Championship and at last some decent weather. Sales climbed zero point five percent with June's drop revised shallower. The macro backdrop is one of rising real wages and lower inflation, lifting confidence. And I can report the sun is still shining as we
head through August in London. I'm you in Pots Bloomberg Radio, and.
It gives us something to look forward to here in the East Coast. Thank you Ewan. Well. The carry trade is making a calmback the MUA holding set as a variety of investors have started borrowing the Japanese yen again to invest the proceeds elsewhere in higher yielding assets. The enkerry trade blew up in spectacular fashion two weeks ago, sending global markets tumbling. Traders wagered billions of dollars that the end would weaken before the currency jumped.
Last month.
One portfolio manager summed up the Kerry trade comeback, saying, people have pretty short memories.
Yeah, and now to the latest time of Middle East Nathan International mediators holding a second day of negotiations with Israel to pause the war with Hamas and Ganza. Let's get more from Bloomberg's Ronsalin Matheson.
We know the sticking points are significant. It's a bit hard to know what to make of the fact that talks are going on today and they're were scheduled to potentially do so. That could either mean that things are really really stuck but they're trying really hard to find a way through. Could also mean that they are seeing little signs a progress. But we do know about those fundamental sticking points. I mean, most broadly, the biggest one
is what does the ceasefire aim to achieve? Is it a pathway to end the war?
Bloomberg's Ronsolin Matheson reports some months representatives are not expected to be president of the talks, but mediators will briefly r inback group on the latest developments.
And out of politics here in the US. John Vice President Kamala Harris will give voters a better idea of her economic policy during his speech later today in North Carolina. Bloomberg Zamy Morris brings us a preview from Washington.
The Harris campaign is zeroing in on high food prices, as inflation remains a big issue in the presidential race, and she's expected to push for a federal ban on price gouging on groceries. Harris is putting particular emphasis on rising meat prices, which she says account for a large
part of rising grocery bills. Harris says she would aim to enact the ban within her first one hundred days, in part by directing the Federal Trade Commission to impose harsh penalties on any firms that break new limits on price gouging. In Washington, Amy Morris Bloomberg Radio, all.
Right, Amy, thank you. In the Harris campaign also says the vice president will propose a benefit for first time home buyers up to twenty five thousand dollars in down payment support that builds on a proposal from President Biden in his State of the Union address for a ten thousand dollars tax credit for first time buyers.
And on the Republican side. Former President Donald Trump held another news conference at his golf club in Bedminster, New Jersey, trying to counter Harris's momentum. He says his strategy of personal attacks against the vice president is working.
I think I'm entitled to personal attacks. I don't have a lot of respect for I don't have a lot of respect for her intelligence, and I think she'll be a terrible president. And I think it's very important that we win.
The former president to find critics in some allies who say his rhetoric delves into racist and sexist sift stereotypes. Trump supporters have urged him to focus on policy and ty Harris to President Biden's unpocket record on the economy.
Meantime, John the former President's opening his records on his finances. A two hundred and sixty five page financial disclosure includes more than a half billion dollars in income from his resorts and residential properties, and tens of millions in debts
and liabilities from his legal challenges. The document also lists more than fifty million dollars from Trump's social media company, more than seven million from licensing his image on non fungible tokens and more than five million dollars in book sales.
And the White Houses walk back President Biden's comment on the potential of a new Venezuelan election. That story this morning from Bloomberg's Ed Baxter.
The president asked by reporters as he walked to board his Marine Juan helicopter whether he supported new elections in Venezuela, and he responded, I do well. There have been charges, of course, that the Nicholas Madua election was rigged, but now a spokesman for the National Security Council said Biden intended to speak on the absurdity of Maduro failing to come clean after claiming victory, spokesman of Sean Sabat saying
it is clear Maduro did not win. Maduro responded, the US should not interfere that Venezuelans are in charge in their home head. Baxter Bloomberg Radio, All.
Right, Ed, thanks, you've just gotten word. The Biden administration is awarding Texas instruments, one point six billion dollars in Chipack grants and three billion in loans. It's the latest major award from a program designed to boost. American semiconductor manufacturing and Texas Instruments stock is up one percent in early trading, and on.
The flip side, shares of applied Materials down three percent in early trading. The largest US maker of chip manufacturing equipment delivered an inline sales for a cast. But that's disappointing investors who've been looking for a bigger payoff from AI spending. Yeah, that brings us to five h seven All Wall Street toimedown for a look at some of the other stories making news in New York and around
the world. For that, we're joined by Bloomberg's Michael Barr. Michael, good morning, Good morning John.
We're learning New York City Mayor Eric Adams has been hit with more federal subpoenas in a corruption probe. The mayor telling ABC seven he is vowing to cooperate.
I hold myself beyond a reproach and when you receive a subpoena, you respond.
Last November, the FBI served search warrants, including at the Brooklyn home of Adam's fundraiser, Brianna Suggs, and agents also approached the mayor on the streets using his electronic devices. It is unclear what prompted the new subpoenas, which were actually served last month, and Adam's attorney repeated the mayor had done nothing wrong. Ernesto strengthened to a Category two hurricane as implowed northward toward Bermuda, threatening to drench the
territory with heavy rain and unleashed flash floods. Its top winds reached one hundred miles per hour. Ernesto is expected to become a major Category three hurricane later today as it approaches Bermuda. The track currently shows the storm passing to the west of the island. Two California doctors are among the five people charged in the overdose death of actor Matthew Perry last year. Prosecutors at the center of the case our doctor Salvador Placentia and Jazzvin Sega, An,
a leed prathicker known as the Ketamine Queen. US attorney Martina Strata.
Defendant Placentia saw this as an opportunity to profit off of mister Perry. He wrote in a text message in September twenty twenty three, quote, I wonder how much this moron will pay.
US attorney Martina Strata says if convicted Both Senga and Placentia could spend the rest of their lives in prison. Perry's assistant and two other suspects have pleaded guilty. The New York City Council has approved a plan to allocate five hundred million dollars to rezone parts of the Bronx to facilitate construction of thousands of new homes as the
city struggles to address a shortage of affordable housing. The decision will allow for approximately seven thousand new units across dozens of blocks around new Metro North rail stations coming to the East Bronx, including seventeen hundred that will have income limits in place to keep them permanently affordable. Global News twenty four hours a day and whenever you want it with the Bloomberg News. Now, I'm Michael Barr, and this is Bloomberg John Michael.
Thanks.
Yeah.
That brings us to five tenth off Bolsleet tests. Time for the Bloomberg Sports Sunday man managers Don Stshower.
I'm mets of Ben streaky all season lately, not so good A five losses the last six games. Thirty eight runs allowed in those five losses at Cityfield, Mets had a five to nothing lead before Oakland's JJ Bledet hit a grand slam of Jose Quinton, and the A's went on to win seven six to take the series. Mets home tonight from Miami. Yankees will play the Tigers tonight and tomorrow in Detroit and then Sunday night in Williamsport, Pennsylvania, where the Little League World Series is going on. Yanks
tied for first with Baltimore. The Orioles beat the Red Sox five to one. The Phillies crushed the Nationals thirteen to three, as rookie Weston Wilson became the ninth Phil's history to hit for the cycle and what would be quite a rule change. MLB is reportedly at least discussing the idea of making a starting pitcher go at least six innings unless they get hurt, throw one hundred pitchers, or allow four and more earned runs. The goal is to make the starting picture more important like it used
to be. This is said to not be something that would happen anytime soon. Giants play a preseason game tomorrow afternoon in Houston and Daniel Jones will be the starting quarterback. Went down last year with a torn acl update on his training camp from Giants coach Bryan Dabo.
I think he's made he's made strides every day and again it's some new guys that were thrown to It's its first time he's been in team, so it's a it's been a steady at stay, steady improvement from when we started, when he had first go through team and have people around his legs. You know, there's new things, new pieces, new tight ends, new receiver, so that's always that's always a work in progress.
Yet's played tomorrow night at Carolina. Last by in Foxborough Patriots with the second straight game Who's four quarterbacks Drake May who they took with the third pick of the draft, win six for eleven to TD run. The Pats lost to the Eagles fourteen thirteen. Jalen Herds and Sakuon Barkley did not play.
WNBA.
The liberty back of the Olympic Break went to LA one by thirty five and now twenty two and four. Chris Kirk had a whole in one shot sixty four Leeds West shot in Memphis. John Stashaway Bloomberg Sport.
Coast to Coast on Bloomberg Radio nationwide on Sirius XM and around the world on Bloomberg dot Com and the Bloomberg Business app. This is Bloomberg day Break.
Good morning.
I'm Nathan Hager, and the presidential race is really off and running now, but not before one last symbolic passing of the torch from President Biden to Vice President Kamala Harris.
I'm an incredible partner the progress we've made.
She's gonna make one hell of a president.
And the President shared a stage for the first time with the new Democratic nominee since he ended his reelection bid last month. Now Harris heads to swing state North Carolina to talk about her plans to make her own progress and joining us now for more in the is Jennifer Wallace, Professor and chair of the Politics Department at
the University of Virginia. Jennifer, Good Morning. Is there a challenge for Vice President Harris to sort of strike out on her own, make her own economic policies without being tied too much to some of the more unpopular policies under President Biden?
Good morning, Good morning.
While that's certainly going to be what she tries to do over the course of the next couple of months, it's difficult because she wants to take credit for the successes of the Biden administration but not be saddled by the failures or the challenges. And I think that's why it was before her economic speech that we saw her with the current president on the campaign trail. At this point, she'll begin to demonstrate that she's her own person.
And from what we've heard so far from the Harris campaign, that demonstration will include ideas like a federal ban on food price gounging twenty five thousand dollars in first time home buyer assistance. Is that enough to assuage voters who may still be feeling some pain from elevated rices over the last several years.
It's something For those voters that are really going to be voting exclusively on the economy and who feel like the Biden administration failed, it's going to be difficult for her to win them back anyway. It's not Those are not the suburban voters with whom she's going to have sway.
So I think she just needs to put something out there.
She has to demonstrate some level of specificity, but she doesn't have to do the impossible.
So what is the challenge then for Vice President Harris to show that she, I guess, sort of feels the pain of many voters still while still touting some of the successes that President Biden has had. I mean, the White House just put out a notice that it's been two years since they passed the Inflation Reduction Act.
This is what's really difficult, because the Biden administration has done quite a bit for the economy, and their messaging just hasn't caught up with their actions, and so the American people aren't feeling the broader macroeconomic improvement that the country's experiencing. So what Kamala Harris needs to do first is highlight that she grew up middle class, that she understands the average pain that a typical family is experiencing,
and that she wants to put into policy. She wants to put into effect policies that will help grow the middle class.
But this is a really challenging time.
If people feel like they're not doing well, there's little she can do to tell them that they are.
And of course, former President Trump held another news conference that is Bedminster Golf Club yesterday sort of hammering Harris and Biden over high prices. At the same time sort of doubling down on the personal attacks, saying he's entitled to make personal attacks. What do you make of the evolving Trump's strategy against the vice president.
The idea that he was going to give an economic policy speech yesterday seemed like the right idea for the Republicans because he was going to preempt anything she would say today. He was going to lay out a clear plan and tell people what a Trump administration would mean
for them. The first couple of minutes of the speech seemed to go in that direction, but when he doubled down on the attacks, when he made it personal, when he started talking about all of his grievances again, he basically inoculated her from not having specific economic policies because no one was talking about his economic plan. They were talking about the fact that she's sort of making him come undone.
Just thirty seconds left, Jennifer, how could today's event for Vice President Harrison North Carolina set us up for what we see at the convention next week?
My sense is that she will lay out broad contours of an economic plan, and then the economy will be one of the key themes at the convention next week. So She doesn't want to test anything among an audience of delegates next week.
She wants to begin speaking about these issues now.
She wants to get some coverage of these issues now, so there are no surprises next Monday, Tuesday, or Wednesday.
This is Bloomberg Daybreak Today, your morning brief on the stories making news from Wall Street to Washington and beyond.
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I'm John Tucker. Join us again tomorrow morning for all the news you need to start your day right here on Bloomberg day Break