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Good morning.
I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the stories we're following today.
Karen, we begin on Capitol Hill, where debate continues on President Trump's three point three trillion dollar tax and spending cut bill. Senators have been up all night and into this morning voting on amendments to the legislation, including clean energy and medicaid provisions that could upset fiscal conservatives, but Kansas Republican Roger Marshall says he is confident the bill will get over the line.
I sure think we do have the votes.
I think we cannot let this moment pass.
To have the largest tax savings in American history, the average American family back home is going to save one thousand dollars a month, but Democrats like Mark Kelly of Arizona are trying to slow the process.
We'll be here as long as it takes for us to show the American people that this is bad policy. This is going to kick seventeen million people off of their healthcare to give a big giant tax cut to the wealthiest Americans.
Well, right now, eight Republicans are holding out their votes on the bill. Two of them, Rand Paul and Tom Tillis are solidly against it. Senate majority leader John Thune can afford to lose only one more and advance the bill back to the House before President Trump's July fourth deadline.
Meanwhile, Nathan a new analysis of the Senate's tax cut bill points to a potential benefit gap in the legislation. Economist at Eale University's Budget Lab I found the bill would cost the bottom twenty percent of taxpayers an average of five hundred and sixty dollars a year, while the top twenty percent would see a boost of six fifty
five dollars. The analysis finds the poorest Americans would bear the brunt of cuts to Medicaid in food stamps, while higher earners would see the biggest benefit from tax cuts and an expanded state and local tax deduction well Karen.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessen is optimistic that the tax bill will get done in time. He spoke with Bloomberg Shineli Bassic.
I'm confident that the bill is going to progress as is over the next few hours, and it'll be on the President's desk to sign on July fourth. So Senate will vote pass it over to the House. We've seen incredible leadership, and this is what leadership looks like.
That was Treasury Secretary Scott Besson speaking of Bloomberg Sholly Basset yesterday, and for the full conversation head to the Bloomberg podcast channel on YouTube.
Nathan, the war of words between President Trump and Elon Musk has exploded into public view once again. I'm Bloomberge John Tucker following that story for us John, good morning and.
Good morning Karen Well. Overnight, President Trump posted on social media Elon may get more subsidy than any human being in history by far. And without subsidies, Elon would probably have to close up shop and head back to South Africa. He went on to post, no more rocket launches, satellites or electric car production in our country would save a fortune. Perhaps we should have Doze take a good hard look at this.
Well.
This all comes after Musks land the Senate's latest version of Trump's multi trillion dollar tax bill, warning that cuts to ev and other clean energy credits would be incredibly destructive to the country. And not to be outdone, Musk is threatening to target nearly every sitting Republican in Congress who has signal support for a President Trump's multi trillion dollar tax bill. Members of the GOP may be asking themselves who they're more afraid of. The President of the
United States. Are the world's richest man? For now? Investors are the ones suffering pre market the shares of Tesla they are most active right now, down four and a half percent. You know you, Yorkom John Tucker, Bloomberg Radio.
All right, John, thanks for that. Now the latest on the trade front. Bloomberg News has learned that the European Union may be willing to accept the trade arrangement with the US ahead of President Trump's deadline. Let's go to London get the latest of Bloomberg's un Potts. Good morning, Ewan, Nathan, and Karen.
It's the world's most important bilateral trading relationship. And now Bloomberg has learned that the European Union is willing to accept a arrangement with the US that includes Donald Trump's universal ten percent tariff on many of his exports, but it does want low rates on key sectors including pharmaceuticals, alcohol, semiconductors, and commercial aircraft, which told the European Commission views the deal as slightly favoring the US, but it's still something
that it could agree to without a deal. Is just eight days until all European Union exports are set to be hit with a tariff of fifty percent in London. I'm you in pots Bloomberg Radio.
Ew and thanks.
Meanwhile, President Trump is threatening to ramp up tariffs on Japan. I mean again more with Bloomberg Trades are Brendan Murray.
He's kind of.
Calling Japan's bluff here and saying, you won't take our rice exports. Therefore, you're just going to have to accept the reciprocal tariff that I'm going to impose on you. Now, whether that's going to motivate Japan to get a better offer on the table between now and July ninth is a whole nother question, and people would doubt that Japan is going to cave on that. The big issue for Japan is getting around those twenty five percent auto tariffs.
Japan is obviously a big exporter to the US of automobiles, and something like eighty percent of the US's trade deficit with Japan is tied to automobiles. So Trump really wants to bring that down, and Japan is not willing to give that up very easily.
Bloomberry's Brandon Murray says talks between the US and Japan are expected to continue despite the president's latest threat.
Karen Let's turn to markets now. The S and P five hundred is coming off its best quarter since twenty twenty three. As we head into the second half of this year, the index is trading at an all time high, soaring twenty five percent from its early April low. Tally Lejay is chief market strategistic the Wealth Consulting Grip.
I know it sounds silly, and I'm a wild eye optimist, but by the dips has worked since the inception of the S and P five hundred, folks, and we know that because the chart goes from the lower left to the upright across time. It depends on your holding period, and our horizon tends to be pretty long. So I think it's always a good time, even at all time highs like this, to put new money to work in stocks.
Chally leje with the Wealth Consulting Group. Meantime, this has been the worst half of a year for the dollar since nineteen seventy three. The US currency is down ten point eight percent so far this year.
Nathan FN Chair J Powell and other top central bankers are set to discuss monetary policy at the European Central Bank's annual retreat in Portugal, and we get a preview with Bloomberg's Michael McKee.
It's an all star central banker panel that may shed some light on the path for global interest rates given the trumpe tariff chaos. Federal Reserve Chair J. Powell is probably the main attraction, but is there much new he can say until the administration makes its policies clear. In Japan, Kajo Yueeda is trying to navigate a tricky corridor, raising interest rates while trying to keep the economy on course.
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey is dealing with stubborn inflation and signs of weakening growth, and ECB President Christine Legard is facing headwinds from US policies and European defense spending needs. Odds are we'll learn more about all of their problems than what the solutions may be. Michael McKee, Bloomberg Radio.
Time Now for a look at some of the other stories making news in New York and around the world. And for that we're joined by Bloomberg's Michael Barr. Michael, good morning, Good morning Karen.
A jury returns to deliberate for a second day today at the sex trafficking trial of music mogul Sean Diddy Combs. Yesterday got off to a rugged start and all were into deliberations. The four persons sent a note saying they were concerned one of the jurors could not follow the judge's instructions. Eventually, jurors deliberated over five hours on Monday. They are deciding where the prosecutors have proven racketeering, conspiracy and sex trafficking charges. Former prosecutor Bernardo Vielono.
The jury is accident. If an individual acts for a control substance and the person hands.
It over, is it distribution. I would be concerned if I was Sean Colmes, because you don't get to that predicate act unless you have already found that there's a racketeering conspiracy.
The defense says this was all part of the swingers' lifestyle and that he committed no crimes. The largest city workers union in Philadelphia is now on strike, about nine thousand workers represented by District Council thirty three walked off the job at midnight after negotiators failed to reach a new deal with the city. The union has been asking for eight percent raises each year for four years. Union head Greg Boulware says the city's offer of a seven
percent raise spread out over three years isn't enough. What inflation is up and the cost of living is up. Two percent raises and three percent raises don't change the narrative for our people. Things like trash service have been interrupted. Look for a red hike. The New York City Rent Guidelines Board last night to prove the three percent price increase for one year leases and four point five percent for two year leases, affecting roughly one million rent stabilized apartments.
The increases are expected to begin on October first. Global News twenty four hours a day and whenever you want it with the Bloomberg News. Now, I'm Michael Barr, and this is Bloomberg Karen.
All right, Michael Barr, thank you. Time down to the Bloomberg Sports Update, brought to you by Flushing Bank. Here's John Stanshower.
John to morning, Good morning to down Yankees in Toronto. First to four before they come back to New York to play the Mets this weekend. Jazz Chisholm another home run is fourth and five games. Yanks had two to nothing, later three to one. It came apart sixth in in blue. Jays put the four runs on three Yankee pitchers and Anthony Vopi throwing air was constantly. Toronto won five to four. Yanks in June had a losing month. Their managers Aaron Boone, a.
Really tough week. You know that that lent itself to this record. So you know, we know we got to be a little bit better, and you know feel like overall, you know, we just got to find a way to finish some of these games.
Tampa Bay loss of the Yanks remain game and a half ahead. Phillies won four nothing behind Zach Wheeler, who in five starts in June allowed only two in runs in the fields now two games ahead of the Mets, who are at Cityfield tonight to play in Milwaukee. The Mets have lost thirteen or the last sixteen games. The Knick still don't have a coach, but they've added a player.
Veteran guard Jordan Clarkson got bought out in Utah, so he first needs to clear free agent waivers, but Clarkson expected to join the Knicks and helped their bench, which was thin for most of last season. As to the new coach, Mike Brown, the first to have a second interview, Brown two years ago Coach of the Year in Sacramento, the Kings fired him during this past season. An NFL trade of three time All Pro defensive backs Mitka Fitzpatrick goes back to Miami where he began his career. Jalen
Ramsey goes to Pittsburgh tight end Johnny the Smith. Day two at Wimbledon will have early starts for Americans Tommy Paul and Jess Pagoula. Topsy Onick Center plays today, so does Novak Djokovic and Coke Go God John Stashedward Bloomberg's.
Boots Coast to Coast on Bloomberg Radio nationwide on Serious Exam and around the world on Bloomberg dot Com and the Bloomberg Business app. This is Bloomberg Daybreak.
Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager. The Senate has been pulling an all nighter of amendment votes to President Donald Trump's big tax and spending cut bill. It continues this morning. Right now eight Republicans are holding out support for the legislation, but White House Economic Advisor Kevin Hassett is keeping the pressure on.
I would counsel people very much against quoting against the bill, and I don't expect that there are going to be many people who do that because the bill makes so much sense.
That was a National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett. Joining us this morning is Terry Haines, the founder of Pangaea Policy. Terry, good morning. The White House is sounding confident this bill is going to get done. How do you see things?
Good morning, Good morning, Nathan. This is the time where you project the result you want. So the White House is projecting confidence. The Democrats are projecting scorn and ugliness. The eight Democrat or excuse me, the eight Republican senators that want things or projecting uncertainty. So so people want things, and we're about to the point. My view is ultimately this thing passes. My bogie for three months has been that it's going to happen on or around July fourth.
So here we are, and you know, but there's going to be a lot of deals done here in the next few hours and a lot of votes to happen in the next few hours.
How do you see those deals shaking out. There's been a lot of focus, particularly on the clean energy tax credits, the cuts to Medicaid. How could this bill reshaped? Do you see significant reshaping to the legislation?
Well, I don't see significant. I would say not significant. The reason why is because the core is to the core or this thing or tax provisions and manufacturing provisions. What we're talking about here is are important provisions, but there they're ancillary to the core of the bill. But I see fundamentally accommodation. I see, uh, you know, things that they've probably gone about as far as they're going
to go on Medicaid and probably even walk back. And this is what we're talking before Senator Scott's amendment about the federal match happens.
Uh.
But and Senator Murkowski, Senator Collins and others, uh want some things. So I think the bill ultimately moderates some.
We've talked about the pressure that the White House is putting to bear. There's a new analysis from Yale's Budget Lab that shows a pretty disproportionate benefit for upper earners compared to lower earners from this legislation. Is there a potential political downside for Republicans to passing this?
Not particularly you know, the the the the Yale folks are a lot of things, but they're they're they're they're pretty part of center orientation. Certainly, the polling is negative
towards Republicans right now. But what Republicans are focusing on is, you know, they can get the kind of the tack the fundamental tax and manufacturing policy right then they wager the economic effects result in result from a positive result into a positive polling balance into twenty twenty six and into the midterms, and you know, and whatever else you have to say about what the Republicans are doing, one thing they are counting on is the kind of the
relative scramble that the Democrats are in right now.
So you buy the White House analysis that the CBO scoring on this does in factor in the economic benefit they're talking about something like a three percent boost to GDP from this legislation.
Well, you know, going back to certainly going back to President Obama in twenty twelve, I remember this very clearly, but I think it goes back much farther. There's always been complaint from any occupant of the White house at the CBO scoring is artificial, does not take growth into account, as Secretary best And points out, doesn't take tariff revenues
into account. And you know, when you have a world where the as the Wall Street Journal points out, where the CBO score on extending salt turns out to be turns out to lower the deficit, you know, you've got a pretty You've got a fairly wacky and artificial system. Whatever else you have to say about.
It, Okay, just quickly yay nay on whether this bill passes out of the Senate today.
As we speak again, this.
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And I'm Nathan Hager. Join us again tomorrow morning for all the news you need to start your day right here on Bloomberg day Break