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look at the many challenges facing the Chinese consumer. I'm Amy Morris in Washington, will look at the career and

legacy aboutgoing House speaker Nancy Pelosi. That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend on Bloomberg eleven three, on New York, Bloomberg one, Washington d C, Bloomberg one oh six one, Boston, Bloomberg nine sixties, San Francisco d A B, Digital Radio, London, Sirius XM one nineteen and around the world on Bloomberg Radio dot com and via the Bloomberg Business at Hi, Everybody, I'm John Tucker. An let'st today's program with a look at the jobs market. Joining us now to talk about

at Bloomberg Global Economics and Policy editor Michael McKee. You know, we've had tens of thousands of job cuts in the past few weeks, a lot of them in technology. What are we expecting to see in this week's jobs report? Any of the is gonna show up in this report. We're not expecting it. Uh. We may see some declines in tech employment, but it appears most people are finding new jobs fairly quickly, at least according to the jobless claims numbers, and so tech is a very small part

of the overall labor market. There are hundred forty six million jobs in America, and so tens of thousands is still a very small percentage. Is the employment report? The jobs reports still the mother of all economic reports? Well, it may be the mother of all economic reports. The c p I s maybe the mother in law of all economic reports because the FED is kind of focused more on prices these days. But the Jobs report is always going to be there because it's a sign of

the strength of the economy. And we're moving into a period now where we've had the FED focused on how fast it was going to move and how high it was going to move. And now the question that seems to be developing in the markets is, Okay, if we buy your idea that you go to five cent and you do it more gradually, when you're gonna start cutting, and that will depend on the economy. If the jobless rate starts to rise significantly, then the Fed is going

to have to think about it. They insist they'll live with a higher jobless rate, but if it goes too far, then they might start thinking about a rate reduction. So that's gonna be the way the debate plays out in how tight is the labor market right now? Well, by all standard indicators, it's very tight. Still, the number of job openings is still very high, and the unemployment rate is still very low. The participation rate is not going up significantly, so there aren't enough workers to fill all

the jobs. Is when it comes down to now, you may have a labor mismatch where the people who are available to work don't have the skills necessary for the jobs that are open. That's hard to prove, but it is a theory for part of why we see such a high rate of job openings. But the other situation is this is totally unusual because everybody lost their job at once, and then a lot of people decided to not to come back into the labor force and to perhaps retire. So there are a lot of jobs going

unfilled that may never be filled. It probably is the FED and economists don't really know how that's going to play out. Okay, So if I'm a business owner and I need a worker and I can't find anybody out there, I'm going to offer more and more pay and maybe pay the workers that I do have to keep them, going to pay them more, and that's going to feed into inflation because then I have to raise my end prices that I try to consumers. Does that make sense?

That makes sense, and it it's what's been happening, particularly on the service industry side. We saw it happen in manufacturing that's weakened some Now that demand has weakened for goods, people spending more on services, and services industries were the last to recoup some of the workers that they lost, particularly things like restaurants and bars and many retail stores. So they have had to raise their pay rates and they have had to raise prices to pay for it.

The question is how many more workers are they going to be hiring and then uh those many of those jobs, particularly in restaurants and bars, are transitory. People don't stay in them very long. They're taking them as a springboard to something else, or they're uh going to be looking for something else because the job itself is very hard.

So once you get back to a rough ability to serve your customers, do you then need to keep raising rates or do you need can you say, well, maybe that's it, I'm done, or I'm not going to pay as much to the next round of people because now I'm backstaffed where I need to be. What's the lag time between enacting policy by the Federal Reserve and the time it shows up in something like the labor market? Traditionally, as Milton Friedman put in, it's long and variable legs

with no with no timing on it. Estimates by researchers have suggested somewhere between twelve and eighteen months, although it is kind of accepted wisdom now and certainly at the FED, that it's faster than that now because we have so many transmission channels that are so quick. You have instantaneous payments for things, and you can One of the examples always used was restaurants were slow to change prices because

then they would have to reprint all their menus. But now you're just doing it as a PDF that people are scanning their phones on, so you can raise prices very quickly, so you can see much quicker move into the economy. But nevertheless, the feeling is we're only six months into this. Seems like forever, but only six months into this, and that we may start to see some of it really start to hit coming fairly soon. The Photo Reserve chairman Jerome pal is going to also speak

in some format this coming week. What's he expected to say will be a check the box kind of thing. They'll ask him, we presume how high are you going to raise it at this meeting? And the betting is he's going to push people to fifty basis points half a presentage point, and then how high do you think we need to go? And the consensus of the FED speakers over the last couple of weeks has been around five percent Summer four, seventy five, summer five, somewhere in

that range. Then the question is how long are you going to keep it there? And what are you going to look for? And that's what Wall Street wants to know Mike as always a pleasure. Michael McKee And just to hit on Bloomberg Daybreak weekend, waning consumer confidence in the UK. I'm John Tucker and this is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg Daybreak weekend. Are glob to look ahead at the top stories for investors in the coming week. I'm

John Tucker in New York. Up later in the program consumers and the economy in China, But first, the UK headed toured the holiday season with a recession looming and consumer competence lower than it was during the financial crisis. Consumers spending is held up so far, but how long's that gonna last? For more? Let's hit to London and bringing Bloomberg Daybreak europancher Stephen Carol, John Nathan. The lights and decorations are up in London and it's as hard

as ever to get a restaurant booking here. But the visible cheer from some is coming at a time as deep economic gloom. Overall inflation is at forty year high in the UK. We've got rising interest rates at a crippling jump in rents and mortgage costs for many. So how resilient are Britain's consumers looking in this crucial end of year shopping period. Let's bring in our opinion economist and afl Stad and Are Bloomberg, Pursuits Reporters, Serrapaport as

well Andrea. The last retail sales figures showed a little bit of growth in October. Consumer confidence surveys still very much on the duldrum. What is the picture going to be like going into this really important period of the year for consumers. Well, the most remarkable thing is despite all the doom and gloom and the cost of living crisis and all the issues that are consumers are facing, they are being remarkably resilient. We've seen a little bit

of distress. We had made dot com and jewels collapse, but aside from that, there is very little distress. The most remarkable thing is that nothing's really happened yet. Oh yet is the key word, And that we we had updates and the likes of you know, high Street Staples here, Marks and Spencer's next people like that. What did we learn from from their results? We learned that things were taking along. Okay, I think this Christmas will be fine.

I think this will be the last hurrah The important thing is that this is the first year for three that it will be a relatively normal Christmas. People will be out visiting friends of family. When they do so, they tend to buy gifts for them. The hospitality industry is seeing bookings return, particularly things like office Christmas parties, office nights out that really haven't happened for the last two years. So I think this Christmas will be fine.

What we them face is a very nasty hangover in the new year, so it could be the next set of results before we get that clearer picture of us and Sarah some consumers feeling very resilient. Indeed, and you've been writing about luxury spas for Bloomberg Pursuits. First of all, what did you find out? And secondly, how what's the demand looking like for for services like that? Well, like andreas Son, you know, luxury is doing great. Luxury is

doing absolutely fine. People who have money to spend our spending it because, like she said, over the past three years, you couldn't you couldn't book a five star hotel at Christmas to travel from the US without tests or you know, vaccines or anything. Now you can in the exchange rate is great for Americans and they're coming over here and they're spending and what I found in the luxury spot industry.

So there's a bit of an arms race right now within the top hotels, the Bulgari, Spa, Clarridges, the Corinthia Claria just just had a huge revamp. Now there's a pool when they've read it blows a pool. Now you can also get the full celebrity experience with the six pound manicure by a celebrity manicurist. Um. I have not sampled it, but there's all kinds of really competitive offers trying to get the whole v I P experience for

the one person consumer that they're looking for. Okay, I mean there's a good question as to whether or not you might have the best job about Bloomberg, Sarah. I think I do. I think I think competing with you will be our colleague Manus Cranny, who was speaking to the CEO of Mode Hennessey Phillips Go and talking about the demand that they're seeing for Champagne. Let's take a listen in we talked about the roaring twenties in the twenty two will be fabulous here for Champagne without giving

any numbers. We are running all of stock on on most of our best trimpains. So I think as people have been coming out of COVID, it's been just spent up demand for luxury, enjoyment, traveling and all that running of stock. How close to the end of the champagne stock are we? Well this every year you stop coming fortunately, so there will be more to come for next year.

And that's the SEEO of Mode. Tannessey speaking to Manus Cranny. So, Sarah, we've been talking about this boom then in the hospitality sector. So we're still, as Andre was telling us, you know, still seeing reasonable amount of resilience and consumers when they're spending on things, what about what they're spending on going out. Well, there might be a nasty hangover in January, as there always is, but for now London is fully booked. It's very hard to get a table at a top restaurant

right now. The bars are packed, the West End is packed, theater eater is booming. They need this Christmas season to be a success. And I'll say there are problems, like their gas bills are are very high and they didn't have the previous seasons. But right now business is booming in the West End in hospitality. People are coming over and and they're spending, and of course it's a chance for many people to have a blowout after a few difficult years. There's that sort of yolo mentality after like

the lockdown and code. People want to have a big Christmas. They want to see their friends and family, they want to get back to normality. And even though things are more expensive than they were in people are putting it on credit cards or they're deciding, you know what, for me, this is worth worth it. This year. They're going to go out and they'll they'll spend. So yeah, it's going

to be a big Christmas for hospitality in London. You're making me excited about the coming weeks, although I'm quite worried about where I'm gonna go for dinner anyway, Andrea, let's talk about the consumer luxury sector, which is I suppose in that space of the Champagne and the high end spas that Sarah was telling us about, what does

the picture look like, They're it's very similar. What we're seeing in luxury is we're seeing the very top end to continue to spend on her Mayor's Hamburgs our Hamburgs. What we're just starting to see this is more in the US than in Europe. Yet, is that that more marginal luxury consumer, the consumer that perhaps spent stimulus checks on a new Hamburg or a new pair of sneakers in one they haven't been so exuberant this year and

they are just starting to rain in their spending. So I would say that is a bit of a warning sign for the luxury industry as we go into next year. What about this idea of you know, the cheap pound has been a big advantage for people who are traveling, particularly from the US into the UK and looking to go shopping. Is that playing out in the boost for

UK luxury brands. It's more playing out in Europe because they still have the tax free benefit that we no longer have in London, and brands have been saying Burbery said la this week that they are not seeing so many tourists coming to London. They're going to Paris or milamb because of that, you know, not having that tax breaks.

So the the luxury industry, the Bridge luxury industry is lobbying to try and find a way forward so that they can encourage more overseas tourists to come to the UK and get that benefit, of course, because I mean we've been reporting and various parts of Bloomberg about the all of the things that Americans are able to buy more easily, property being one of them in the UK as well. Cominian columnist Andrea Felstead and our Pursuits reporter Sara Appaport. Thank you so much to both of you

for your insights. I'm Stephen, Caroline, London. You can catch us every weekday morning here for Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, beginning at six am in London and one am on wall Streece. John Nathan Stephen, thanks a lot. Here just to hit on Bloomberg Daybreak, weekend consumers spending in China. I'm John Tucker. This is Bloomberg broadcasting live from the Bloomberg Interactive Broker

Studio in New York. Bloomberg Even three oh to Washington, d C, Bloomberg to Boston, Bloomberg one O six one to San Francisco, Bloomberg to the Country, Sirius XM Cho one nine to London d A B Digital Radio, and around the globe. The Bloomberg Business Act and Bloomberg Radio dot Com. This is Bloomberg day Break Weekend. I'm John Tucker in New York with your global look ahead of the top stories for investors in the coming week. Holiday spending is in the spotlight this week as we head

into the winter holiday season. Spending also in focus in China, Amoral. Let's go to Bloomberg day Break Asia host Doug Chrisner. John with a holiday season now underway in the US, the focus for markets is on the strength of the consumer. We have seen exceptional resilience so far in spite of stubbornly high inflation, although given uncertainty around the outlook, the

risk is overcautious buying now. It was interesting that the South China Morning Post has already reported on a decline in Chinese exports to the U S. What does that speak to Meantime in China, domestic consumer spending has already been slowing. The primary factor, obviously has been beijing strict

zero COVID policy. We want to take a closer look now at the outlook for Chinese consumers as we approached the end of the year, and we are joined by end to Current Bloomberg's Chief Asia Economics correspondent, and thank you for joining us. One of the things that struck me was the retail sales data for the month of October negative seven tenths of one percent, which was really

much weaker than the market was looking for. I think the forecast was for a gain of one point two What is happening underneath the hood here in the Chinese economy where the consumer is concerned. It's a pretty downbeat story for the Chinese consumer. Two things are going on in China. On the one side, China is going through a big real estate slump. House prices continue to fall

and demand for new homes continues to weaken. That's obviously eroding everybody's net worth and sense of you know, upbeat or or well being, so to speak. So that's one side of what's going on. The other side of what's going on, which we all know, is the very aggressive measures to contain COVID which continue to roll around the country in either the form of restrictions or mass testing or maybe even in some cases of broader lockdown. So all of that combined is really weighing on the consumer.

And you mentioned the October consumer data. October is a month in the year when there's a big week long holiday in China, It's meant to be a month of the year when there's big spending on you know, on tourism related and travel related activities. That didn't happen. It went into negative territory. There is broad based weakness across all of the main gauges of retail spending, from household goods through to eating out and the like, and there's

no sign of that turning around. And that's a critical point. The consumer, which had become the engine of China's economy in recent years, remains stuck in the indulgence. Do we know or can we delineate between let's say, sales at physical stores versus e commerce. Is there any way to understand how consumer behavior has adjusted relative to what we're

talking about, particularly as it relates to COVID. There is evidence of declining even declining online demand in terms of the online annual shopping brands is dog There's no doubt about it. But I should go back one step to one of your points that remember China's economy. In China's the consumers had it pretty good in one because the disease the disease was controlled pretty well and the level of disruption was nothing like what's happening this year, and

now the consumer remains subdued overall. You are right, but the economy had a pretty good two has been the big game changer because the arrival of om CON has made it's so much more difficult control, and by extension, that's impeding on people's daily working on recreational lives in ways that hasn't before. So school closures have become much more routine, daily testing requirems have become much more routine.

All of that is of course impacting what people are spending and had their spending in that result of the consumption story has is very much indulgence as a growth driver. You and I were talking before we went to air about the difficulty and measuring a consumer sentiment in China. There are no surveys for that kind of sentiment per se, but I would imagine that employment, to the extent that you are employed and are earning an income, that's going

to have a very positive correlation. I know that youth employment though in China is what running right now, so demographically, I think that there are probably pockets of the economy in terms of demographics where sentiment is maybe a little weaker than another's right, it is it's it is tough to send tally gage sentiments in China, both because of the political system and of course an economy of that size dog. But we do get snap shuts off, especially

in social media. It is often the case that there can be a you know, a series of outrage amongst residents over some COVID related policy that gets censored. That's an indication that people are unhappy. There was, of course, the mortgage boycott earlier this year because of an unhappiness forwards government policy. Those are all indications there have been There have been ways a sense that the Chinese consumer

is not happy at the moment. We do know that, and I think though going forward a lot will depend on just where these government policy pivots do go. And always a pleasure. Thanks for making time to chat with us and the current Bloomberg's Chief Asia Economics correspondent, I'm that prisoner in New York. You can join us weekdays for Bloomberg Daybreak Asia beginning at seven am in Hong Kong six pm on Wall Street, John Doug thanks a lot,

and just they had on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend. Women on the US political stage as HOW Speaker Nancy Pelosi steps down from the lead ship position. I'm John Tucker, and this is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, our global look ahead of the top stories for investors in the coming week. I'm John Tucker in New York. Women in US politics the focus as HOW Speaker Nancy Pelosi's legacy is remembered as she prepares to hand the reins over

as the House Speaker. And for more, let's head to our Bloomberg newsroom in Washington and Amy Morris, Amy, thank you, John. Nancy Pelosi has been HOW Speaker for almost two decades, and as the first female Speaker of the House, she's open doors for more women. Joining us now to talk about Pelosi in her unique style of leadership. Bloomberg News Congressional reporter at Laura let Van. Laura want to thank

you for joining us. Thanks for having me now. I think what's important to establish is your relationship with Nancy Pelosi is that you've covered her for years. Um, were you at all surprised when she announced that she would not be seeking the leadership. I have been thinking she would make that announcement because she had promised a couple of years ago to get the votes to become speaker again, that she would be prepared to clear the path for others,

younger leaders to have their turn. So I was not deeply surprised, but there there was some sense of suspense. Now, let's talk a bit about what you have seen in the years that you've covered her. I mean, you've seen her on the House floor, you've seen her at the White House. Tell us a little bit about the woman who is Nancy Pelosi. I covered her for about ten years starting h I covered her around the time she was starting to rise up in politics and through part

of her first speakership. And uh, it's worth noting that you know she had come onto the scene in the House and uh in two thousand one she ran against any hooy Or for the whip job, and everyone knew this was the stepping stone moment that could set up who would be the next speaker because everyone knew, uh that the following year, decap Part was probably going to step down as the Democratic leader, and when he did, she very quickly lined up the votes to replace him,

and that put her in line. She was a minority leader. But if they picked up the House, which they did in the two thousand six elections. That was that was the history making moment that she was in line to become the first female speaker of her and she then took the gavel. I remember that historic moment on the

House floor. Let's look at another historic moment on the House floor, and that was when Nancy Pelosi announced that she'd be stepping down from House leadership with great confidence in our caucus, I will not seek re election to Democratic leadership in the next Congress. Now, we also heard from a pioneer for women in politics, Vice President Kamala Harris.

She has been historic in so many ways, not only as a first but because of the work that she has done and um and the benefit that has resulted from her work. Okay, so Laura, let's talk a little bit about Nancy Pelosi's legacy and the work that she's done with the White House, her relationships with the different presidents. Of course, uh Donald Trump made it very clear he was happy, of course that Republicans had regained the majority in the House, but he seemed to have some specific

sentiment for Nancy Pelosi. We have taken over Congress. Nancy Pelosi has been fired. Now, that was as he was announcing his own run for president and still managed to invoke Nancy Pelosi's name. Let's talk a little bit about Nancy Pelosi's relationship with Donald Trump. Well, it was a very tense relationship and involved uh in many cases one or the other then walking out of White House meetings.

One of the most famous moments was uh. In May. Uh, she had a meeting with Trump on infrastructure, and and she seemed to realize that she could kind of get under his in and as a powerful woman and and kind of throw him off track. And this was one

of the big examples. But at this meeting kind of devolved into a discussion about Democrat House Democrats investigations of him, and she at one point accused him of a cover up on their investigations, and um, he ended up leaving the meeting, and she wrote a letter to all House Democrats the following day that said, uh, he Trumpet had

a tempered tantrum for all of us to see. So the next day he's holding a meeting or a press conference to talk about a multibillion dollar farm made package, and instead of talking about that, he spent a full half hour talking about House Democrats and how unfair it was that they were investigating him and referring to crazy Nancy. Now you had mentioned that she you know, I know a temper tantrum when I see one, because she's a

mother of five grandchildren, to so many grandkids. Let me ask you about how she has managed the Democratic side of things, because she's had to hold that coalition together, she's had to hold that caucus to other between the more progressive Democrats and the more moderate or more traditional type Democrats. Making sure that that vote didn't split, that party didn't split. Not an easy task, No it's not.

And there were, you know, quite a few moments, especially you know under Biden, she's had some moments where she was obviously struggling to keep progressives in line on the infrastructure package and letting that move on its own, and before trying to work on Biden's economic package, she would

use a variety of tactics. You talk about her being a mother, one thing she's over the years, I've noticed sometimes you would hear about these negotiating sessions in her office with no food, all going on all night, trying to post force the conversation. But but more often than not, she wasn't operating so much as a parent or a parent figure. She was engaging in very tough tactics to

consolidate her own power. And I'll point to the best One of the best examples might be what she did the moment she got in a speaker into that and seven she without the knowledge of other House members, at the very last minute, in the rules package that passes to convene the Congress, uh the first day, which is includes all kinds of routine things, there was a sentence in there saying that committee chairman could only serve for

six years. And everyone voted for this without realizing that that was in there, and uh, it consolidated her power because there were these three Democratic chairman called the old bulls, John Dingle on Energy and Commerce, John Conyers on Judiciary, Charlie Rangle on Ways and Means that wanted to rifle her power and could stay in these jobs forever. And they didn't realize they voted for it, and they were furious.

And then just two weeks later, John Dingle finds out that she um he's connected with the auto industry and isn't wasn't as big into climate change proposals, as some other progressive Democrats were, and he finds out that she is encroaching on his committee' jurisdiction by creating a select committee on climate change and putting Ed Markey, who's very progressive on these issues, in charge of that. So that

would be her legacy and wouldn't it. How the way that she was able to use her wiles and use the other guys maybe UM mistakes, and use that to help consolidate power. That's one of them. But another example, though, there's a there's another side to which is her ability

to unify them all when she really needed to. And you can credit the Democratic takeover in two thousand seven and UM again in with her keeping everyone together on in the first instance, everyone every Democrat in the House against President Bush's pushed to privatized Social Security accounts, which she could see would be politically unpopular, and he had been.

He had a very high approval ratings, and by tacking this program again and again and again, it helped to drive down his approval ratings and set the stage for their campaigns. And then UH with UH the lead up to the elections, it was the repeal of Obamacare again she held all House Democrats together against that. She also changed the whole idea about being a working mother because she launched her career in politics quite late. She did. She didn't even run for Congress until her last child

was going off to college. But she had been very involved in politics, attracting attention many years earlier as a leading fundraiser for her party. She um actually rose up to become the chairwoman of the California Democratic Party and later was the finance chair for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. And it was those fundraising skills that then attracted attention. She ran for Congress, but she was when she was

moving into leadership. It was her ability to raise money for the party that helped her excel and become that whip in two thousand one. That set the stage for her rise. So she was fifty close to fifty forty seven at the time. And it's also worth noting, you know, women used to wear pinstripes, you know, in dressing charcoal gray and tried a look like they were similar dressed to men in the workplace. They didn't talk about their children.

She always surrounded herself in uh when she was being sworn in a speaker with her grandchildren or other children of other members. UM. She would talk about being a mother often and a grandmother. She has nine grandchildren. Uh, she's wearing bright colors, pink and and and other things and just showing a more feminine side. Is that where the white pants it comes from? Is that more of

a suffrage thing, that's more of a suffragette symbolism. She and she was very good at these intentional wardrobe choices, you know, the white When she showed up last week in the capital wearing the white pants suit, it created and this was the day she was going to say that whether she was going to seek the Democratic leadership position again, and everyone was wondering. They knew it was a big moment that she has that suit on the white was was worn by women in the women's movement

dating back to the early nineteen hundreds. And we've seen Hillary Clinton when she accepted the nomination the Democratic presidential nomination in wearing a white pants suit. Nancy Pelosi were it UH during Trump's impeachment trials when she announced that they were going to pursue articles of impeachment. She wore them during both of Trump's UH State of the Union addresses, including the time when in UH twenty nineteen when she

tore his speech in half on television. Now, Laura, one of the things that you're doing now is following the Senate very closely. We always do these interviews looking forward, looking ahead to the coming week. What are you watching for from here that's going to be coming up? It's kind of on your radar. Well. A big question is whether or not Congress is going to address the dead

ceiling in the lame duck session. It's looking like maybe they won't, which will be uh setting up stage for a big conflict in UH in Because Republicans will have the House, there's still the opportunity if Democrats wanted to while they still have control, to try to raise it. Now, Bloomberg News congressional reporter Laura lit Van, thank you so much for shedding some light on the legacy of Nancy Pelosi and what's going to be coming up in Congress.

We appreciate it. That's what's going on in the nation's capital. For more of our political news coverage, you can tune into Balance of Power with David weston weekdays at noon, Wall Street Time and Sound On with Joe Matthew weekdays at five pm Wall Street Time. That's here on Bloomberg Radio. I'm Amy Morris and this is Bloomberg John. Amy Morris reporting from our Bloomberg room in Washington. Thanks Amy, And that does it for it this edition of Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend.

Join us again Monday morning at five am Wall Street Time for the latest on markets overseas and news you need to start your day. I'm John Tucker and this is Bloomberg