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Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager.
And I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the stories we're following today.
Karen, we're watching oil drop as well as we begin a new trading week. Right now, West Texas Intermediate stand about four tenths of one percent at eighty three dollars fifty six cents per barrel. And that decline comes as the US pushes to broker a peace deal between Israel and Hamas we get the details from Bloomberg's Ed Baxter.
This comes with Secretary of Sir Anthony Blincoln visiting Israel today and meeting with Israeli officials. The White House says Israel has now agreed to hear concerns. NSA spokesman John Kirby says six weeks.
If we can get that.
In place, then that gives you six weeks apiece. It gives you no fighting for six weeks, and that includes no fighting in Rafa. And what we're hoping is that after six weeks of a temporary ceasefire, we can maybe get something more enduring in place.
Kirby says, Israel has a read that there will be no attack on RAFA until the US concerns are heard. He says, we'll see where that goes at Baxter Bloomberg Radio.
All right, ed, thank you. Adding another wrinkle to the discussions or reports at Israeli officials think the International Criminal Court could be preparing a rest warrants over the war. The New York Times is reporting officials believe Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahoo, other Israelis and some Hamas leaders could be charged.
The paper says Israeli officials could be accused of preventing the delivery of humanitarian aid to the Gaza strip and pursuing an excessively harsh response to the Hamas attacks on Israel.
And here in the US, Karen campus protests over the war in Gaza are heading into a third week. Hundreds of pro Palestinian demonstrators have been arrested at schools across the country since these protests began at Columbia University on April eighteenth. House Speaker Mike Johnson's called for the National Guard to come in and break up tent encampments, but senators like fellow Republican JD. Vance are dismissing that idea.
I don't know if you need to call in the National Guard.
Maybe you just call in the police.
Right.
This is often framed as a free speech debate.
Senator Vance tells Fox News Sunday students have a right to speak their minds, but not to set up tent cities in public spaces. Democratic Senator Tim Kaine says campus security should play more of a role.
Calling in the National Guard to college campuses.
For so many people would recall what happened when that was done during the Vietnam War.
And it didn't end well.
Senator Kane was on NBC's Meet the Press, which can be heard Sundays on Bloomberg Radio along with Fox News Sunday.
Well, Nathan, we now turn to the markets, where more corporate earnings and a FED decision highlight the week. Fetchair. J. Powell will address reporters after the Fed's rate decision on Wednesday, when the Central Bank is widely expected to hold borrowing costs at a more than two decade high. Here's what Goldman Sachs Chief Asia economist Andrew Tilton is expecting.
He needs to keep the options open for the FED after a set of upside surprises to inflation in the first quarter we don't know for sure whether it we'll see inflation down to target in time for the FED to begin cutting by midyear. Our forecast, we think the FED starts cutting in July. We think we'll see a lower run rate of inflation in Q two and beyond, but that's still a forecast, not a fact.
And then I'll look from Goldman's sax as Andrew Tilton comes as expectations for rate reductions have been pursed further into twenty twenty four, investors are now betting on two cuts at most by year end.
Well.
Meanwhile, Karen an analysis of more than sixty thousand FED news headlines shows Jay Powell's words in December, when he hinted at a swifter pivot toward rate cuts, gave markets a boost and likely helped the US economy dodge a downturn. Bloomberg Economics FED Sentiment Index is powered by a natural language processing algorithm. It shows while Powell's words led to a significant cut in borrowing costs, they also probably added about a half percentage point two inflation over the year.
Despite the FED share being forced into a reversal of his comments this month, Bloomberg's analysis shows Powell has only undone a fraction of the stimulus unleashed his December press conference.
Well, Nathan, there have been major swings in the value of the yen in trading today. The Japanese currency wee can pass one sixty to the dollar for the first time since in nineteen ninety before rebounding strongly. Traders are on high alert for signs of intervention from Japanese authorities. Bloomberg Markets Live Asia lead Garfield Reynolds says they don't have a lot of options considering the wide gulf and interest rates with the US.
Yes, the BOJ is on a tightening path, but it's a slow path that makes it hard for the Ministry of Finance to come in strongly to drive the dollar yen down, especially when everything else is busy driving the dollar up against everything.
And Bloomberg's Garfield Reynolds says last week the BOJ indicated financial conditions or remain easy, though policymakers have repeatedly warned that depreciation won't be tolerated if it goes too far, too fast.
Well, checking Company News this morning, Karen shares of Tesla are higher by more than seven percent. In your li training the ev maker is set to clear a key hurdle to introduce its advanced assisted driving features in China. Bloomberg Daybreak Asia anchor Brian Curtis has more from Hong Kong.
Sources say Tesla will partner with byd in mapping and navigation functions. The US automaker will then be able to deploy its autonomous driving services. This would be on the basis of lane level navigation and mapping provided by by do Bydwo is one of only about twenty qualified suppliers with the key module for self driving functions. The news comes as Tesla CEO Elon Musk made a surprise visit to China. He was immediately granted a meeting with Premier
Lee Chung in Hong Kong. Brian Curtis Bloomberg.
Radio, All right, Brian, thank you. We have news this morning involving another one of Musk's companies. Thousands of former Twitter employees say they are still owned severance pay. Today, the first depositions get under way, starting with Musk and Bloomberg's Amy Morris has a preview.
This will be the first arbitration hearings involving those employedployees who say they were cheated out of severance when Elon Musk bought Twitter in October of twenty twenty two. An email from the law firm representing almost two thousand former Twitter employees plus more than a dozen class action lawsuits says the deposition will be in person and last for seven hours. The company, formerly known as Twitter, which Musk has since renamed X, has been accused in multiple suits
of numerous labor and workplace violations. A spokesman for X has declined to comment. In Washington, Amy Moore as Bloomberg Radio.
All right, Amy, thank you. There are plenty of developments involving Paramount Global. Those shares are hired by about four and a half percent in early trading, Bloomberg News has learned that sky Dance has made its best and final offer for the company. Sources say the Redstone family and film producer David Ellison have both offered concessions to make a possible change in control at Paramount Global to make
it more appealing to the company's other investors. Paramount CEO Bob Bakish is expected to be replaced on an interim basis by a management committee as soon as today, and it.
Is time now for a look at some of the other stories making news in New York and around the world, and for that we're joined by A Bloomberg's Michael Barr. Michael, good Morning, Good morning, Karen.
Small towns in Oklahoma are beginning a long cleanup after tornado's flattened homes and buildings and killed at least four people, including an infant. Damage was extensive in the community of Sulfur, where a weekend tornado crumpled many downtown buildings and sheared the roofs off houses across a fifteen block radius. Hospitals across the state reported about one hundred injuries. This man lives in Holdenville.
My brother lives down there.
Another mile of trying to get to him, I think he blowed his tractor fed away and the house is found from there.
White House officials said President Joe Biden spoke to Oklahoma Governor Kevin Stitt on Sunday and offered the full support of the federal government. A tornado swept over at Trinity, Texas last night, destroying a home and damaging others, injuring two people who were transported by ambulance to the hospital. Trinity County Sheriff Woody Wallace says there are no fatalities.
Got to worry about, Folie. High winds come through all these power lines. We got power lines down everywhere out here, so I'm rebb Mar. You go through them and there's water on the ground, it's fab not gonna end well for you.
Sheriff Wallace says there is the possibility for more tornadoes. New York Governor Cathy Hulkell overnight started a state investigation into Sandra Dorley, the Monroe County District Attorney in Rochester, after bodycam footage showed the DA trying to avoid a speeding ticket. The officer followed her home after she refused to pull over for a traffic stop until she drove to the house.
What is the reason you're so against what I'm doing.
I'm doing my job.
You say you're a DA I had the DA.
Okay Governor Cathy Hokel referred Dorley's case to the Commission for Prosecutorial Conduct, saying Dorley has undermined her ability to hold others account violating the law. South Dakota Governor Christy Nome, considered to be in the running to become former President Trump's pick for Vice president is responding to the backlash
over a story in a upcoming memoir. In the book, she writes about shooting her dog for its bad behavior, including killing the neighbors chickens in killing a nasty, mean goat. No one responded. I followed the law and was being a responsible parent, dog owner, and neighbor. Global News twenty four hours a day and whenever you want it with the Bloomberg News.
Now.
I'm Michael Barr. This is Bloomberg. Karen.
All right, Michael Berry, thank you. Time now for the Bloomberg Sports Update with John Stanshauer.
John Good morning, Good morning, Karen. Good Sunday for the teams from the Garden. Both went south on ninety five, got game four wins, so the Rangers advanced in the second round, and then NIXT took a big step in that direction in Philly beat the Sixers ninety seven ninety two and lead the series three to one. Jalen Brunson's forty seven points the most in KNIXT playoff history. Benard
King scored forty six in nineteen eighty four. Brunson clearly outplayed Sixers star Joel Mbi, who took the same number of shots he took in Game three. In that game, Mbat scored fifty points. This one, he had just over half that twenty seven. Mb did not make a basket in the fourth quarter, shot out for five. Game five tomorrow at MSG. As for the Rangers, they never trailed in Washington. The game was tied in the third period.
Paneren at right wing dranks it to the hash box. Paneren leaves it back for Fox. Fox passed to the far wings.
Savana Jad out to Paneren with.
A shott to hard Tammy Peneren.
How the power play how the Rangers take a three to lead and WPN. Rangers had an empty NT of one four to two for their first series sweep since two thousand and seven. They're the first team to advance and the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Minnesota's the first to move on. In the NBA finished the sweep of Phoenix. Anthony Edwards scored forty. The Timberwolves, lay in the game, suffered a serious knee injury to their coach Chris Finch as he
collided with his point guard Mike Conley. The Clippers blew a thirty one point lead in Dallas, still won to tie the series of two. Indiana again beat injury ravage Milwaukee. The Bucks were without both Deannas Sunte di Compo and Damian Lillard, and the Pacers lead three to one. NHL in the West. Wins for Edmonton, Colorado, Vancouver they all lead their series three to one. Well a weekend for the Yankees. In two games, thirty runs, thirty seven hits,
They've beat Milwaukee fifteen to five. Anthony Rizzo four hits included career home run number three hundred. Dramatic win for the Mets beat the Cardinals four to two on a Mark Bento's home run in the eleventh inning. John Stash Edward Bloomberg Sports Karen Nathan.
Coast to coast on Bloomberg Radio, nationwide on Sirius XM, and around the world on Bloomberg dot Com and the Bloomberg Business app. This is Bloomberg Daybreak.
Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager at the start of another busy week in store for investors. More corporate earnings due out and a made decision from the Fed on the way before, but really when days out? Actually, so, let's get you ready for it. Lori Calvesina is with us this morning in our Interactive Broker Studios in New York. The head of US equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, Laurie, Good morning, So what's the bigger deal for you this week?
The earnings or what we hear from Chairman Powell this week?
So, you know, I hate to say it, but I think for me, it's probably the earnings. We've got one hundred and sixty six companies in the SMP reporting this week, at least last I checked, So I think, you know, as always, people are going to pay attention to the FED. Personally, I'm looking for that commentary to kind of catch up with where the market already is. I'm much more interested, frankly, to hear what companies are saying about the current environment.
Okay, so we have seen a big swath of companies report already. What are some of your takeaways from what we've heard from the companies that have reported so far.
Somehow we managed to get through most of the reports that came out last week, and you know, I think the themes are still evolving. But I would say number one, we're not seeing any kind of you know, big problem with the economy demand anything like that. There's a laundry list of pros and cons that companies are talking about in regards to this market. For me, one thing that
did jump out is that interest rate commentary. There's a lot of various expectations about what the FED is going to do backed in I remember reading one company talking about three cuts, and so I do think, you know, there's a little bit of a slippage in terms of where corporate America is versus the equity market itself or the fixed income market. I do think that geopolitical commentary
is something I'm paying a lot of attention to. It's continued to be mentioned as a general risk, but no sort of you know, kind of overt impact on demand for ether consumers or corporate yet.
Well, that does steer us toward whatever we could. Hear from Chairman Powell on Wednesday in the Made decision, we've done an analysis that shows the December Duvish pivot really helped to fuel the rally that we saw at the first quarter. What's the chance that pivot the other way does some damage to this rally?
Well, well, I'll tell you, you know, I've heard really since the big getting of February in my client meetings, the idea is the US economy so hot, how can the FED possibly even cut this year? So I do think equity markets, equity investors at least have already started
to come to terms with that potential idea. That's not really reflected in market pricing right now as far as I understand, But I do think this may be one instance where equity markets have already assumed a scenario in contrast with what they you know, we're thinking back in January.
So is there a chance then that the stocks can continue to rally even with rate cut expectations getting pushed back as far as they have in the market.
So I think it gets harder from here. I think a hike discussion, which is not really something I'm hearing about from investors right now, I think that would be very, very different from just a no cut scenario in the mind of equity investors. I'll tell you, Nathan, when I talked to investors, you know, they're clearly disappointed that we're
not getting this interest right down draft story. But at the same time, if the economy continues to come through hot, at least a lot of the investors I speak with, I think they want the FED to do the work that needs to be done to get inflation down.
Though we did get that weaker than expected first read on first quarter GDP last week, What does that tell you about what we could get in terms of corporate earnings down the line.
That's a really interesting report to me. I mean generally, what our economists are saying, and I think this has been echoed around the street, is that the underlying details about that report really, you know, sort of speak to the idea that the economy is still strong, the consumer is still strong. There were some quirky things that happened with the data that caused that headline number to be
a bit lower than expected. Now we'll see, you know, if that narrative holds up, But for now, that seems to be what the economic story is, or the economic read is on that report, and I think we're hearing echoes of that in corporate commentary. I'm really just not seeing any sort of demand problem coming through in the company transcripts that we're reading through.
Okay, just thirty seconds left here, Lourie. What's the biggest risk for you when it comes to equities is a geopolitics, earnings or rates?
I think geopolitics are always a huge one that markets have trouble digesting in advance. But I do think the rate story is important. Again, I think no cuts are fine. I think hikes are a different matter.
This is Bloomberg Daybreak Today, your morning brief on the stories making news from Wall Street to Washington and beyond.
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Listen coast to coast on the Bloomberg Business app, seriusxmb iHeartRadio app, and on Bloomberg dot Com. I'm Nathan Hager.
And I'm Karen Moscow. Join us again tomorrow morning for all the news you need to start your day, right here on Bloomberg Daybreak