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Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager.
And I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the stories we're following today, Karen.
Stocks are continuing their recovery from Monday's massive selloff, with futures higher following yesterday's one percent gain for the S and P five hundred. All major groups in the index rows still. Stefold chief economist Lindsay PEGSA says there is major concern about the health of the US economy.
Well, I think the risk of recession is still very real. I would put it in double digit territory, around twenty five to thirty percent when we look out to twenty twenty five and beyond. But my bigger concern is not that the US economy falls into negative territory or an outright recession, but the notion that we allow the economy to slow but the FED continues to tolerate above target inflation.
Steve Fold, chief economists Lindsay Pegs and traders are moderating expectations of deep FED rate cuts this year, SWAP's point to around one hundred and five basis points of easing. That compares to as much as one hundred and fifty basis points on Monday.
Well Nathan Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon says market should not count on the FED stepping in with an emergency right cut. In an upcoming episode of the David Rubinstein Show peer to peer Conversation, Solomon said he doubts the Fed would act before September.
The market expectation is certainly for cuts in the fall. I've been more cautious around inter straight cuts all year. As you remember, the market expectation early in the year was for six of seven cuts based on the economic data we're seen now in the messaging from the Fed. You know, I think it's likely that we'll see a cut or two in the fall, but I think you've still got to wait and see as things unfold.
And Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon added the stock market correction might be healthy, and he forecasts more volatility to come.
In Asia.
Karen, Japanese stocks rose more than one percent. A Bank of Japan officials sent a strong duffish signal by pledging to refrain from hiking interest rates when markets are unstable. Those words follow major moves in the end in record breaking swings in Japanese stocks following last week's rate hike. Nimura's executive officer and head of wholesale, Christopher Wilcox, defended the BOJ.
I would say that the BOJ has been completely vindicated. They always knew that this unwind was going to be very difficult. That's why they've been so slow and so cautious. And yes, that puts some pressure on the end for a little while. And think about the carry trade. The point of the carry trade is that if they didn't start to move, the carry trade would only have got bigger. The end disruption of the unwinding of the carry trade
would have been even bigger. So I think the BOJ is playing it extremely smartly.
Namura' Christopher Wilcock says the three day meltdown in Japan's stocks adds up to one point one trillion dollars wiped out. That is the equivalent of Sweden's entire stock market.
Well, Nathan, we'll have more on the markets than just a moment. But now let's get to the latest in the presidential race. Democratic nominee Kamala Harris has introduced her new running made Minnesota Governor Tim Waaltz set a rally in a swing state Pennsylvania. A leader who will.
Help unite our nation and move us.
Forward, a fighter for the middle class, and Governor Waltz came out fighting against former President Donald Trump.
He froze in the face of the COVID crisis.
He drove our economy into the ground. And make no mistake, violent crime was up under Donald Trump.
That's not even counting the crimes he committed.
Governor Waltz is a favorite of progressives and organized labor, but former Democratic National Committee CEO Amy Dacy says the party is rallying behind him.
You saw a sense of energy and optimism that you haven't seen you for a while with the Democratic ticket. If you're going to advise them, is that keep thought, authenticity, listen as well as speak. Make sure that you're out there and understanding people's pain.
Former DNC chief Amy Dacy notes both progressive Alexandria Casio Cortez and centrist Joe Manchin are backing Waltz. The Harris campaign says it raised twenty million dollars after she announced her running mate, and a new poll from NPR PBS News in Merist College now has Harris leading Trump nationally fifty one percent to forty eight percent.
Well.
One other political note this morning, Nathan Corey Bush lost a bitter primary battle for their shrinking this squad of House progressives. The Missouri Democrat is an outspoken critic of Israel's handling of the war in Gaza. She lost to Saint Louis County prosecuting attorney Wesley Bell. According to the Associated Press, with ninety four percent of votes counted, Bell had fifty one percent support, compare with about forty six percent for Bush.
All right, let's return to markets now, Karen, where shares of the maker of a blockbuster weight loss drug are slimming down and trading Novan Nordisk is down more than three percent. For more, Let's go to Europe and check in with Bloomberg's ew and Potts in London.
Ewan, Nathan, and Karen. It's Europe's most valuable company. But Novo Nordisk has disappointed investors this morning. Revenue from weight loss treatment week of He's being hit by high unexpected price concessions in the US, It's most important market. Novo called it a one off factor, but the size of the shortfall is raising concerns among investors about growing competition
from American rival Eli Lilly. The market for BST drugs is expected to reach one hundred and thirty billion dollars by the end of the decade, but it's clear nov Nordisk willing to fight for market share. In London, I'm youn pots Bloomberg Radio, all right, ew.
And thank you well. Here in the US, Airbnb investors are checking out this morning. Shares are down about sixteen percent. The company gave a disappointing outlook for a third consecutive quarter. It's also a warning of slowing demand from US vacationers, assigned that travel momentum is tapering off despite the peak summer season and.
Karen Shares of super Micro Computer are down more than twelve percent. That company reported quarterly revenue and profit that miss analyst estimates. We get the numbers from Bloomberg's Charlie Pellett.
It outweighs an annual sales outlook that was billions above Wall Street projections, profit excluding some items six twenty five a share short of super Micro's previous forecast, and the eight dollars twenty five cent average analysts estimate a jump in demand for the equipment that powers artificial intelligence training and applications has helped drive sales at super Micro, which makes data center servers in New York. Charlie Pellett Bloomberg.
Radio Right, Charlie, thank you. On the flip side, shares of Luman Technologies are searing more than forty two percent. The company, which provides fiber networks for artificial intelligence data processing, says a surge in demand is leading to a surge in sales. Luhmann also boosted its full year free cash flow forecast a one to one point two billion dollars.
It previously saw one hundred to three hundred million. Time to off for a look at some of the other stories making news in New York and around the world, and for that we're joined by Bloomberg's John Tucker, John, good Morning.
And Karen. A floodwatch has now been lifted for the city after as much as five inches of rain in just several hours. Le Mini streets, homes and businesses in the Tri State inundated last night at cold front triggered severe storms. New York City officials for the first time, we're using a drone to transmit emergency weather alerts to residents were Bloomberg meteorologist Rob Carolyn tells us, we'll get just a temporary break.
Well, we saw anywhere from an inch and a half of rain over portions of the city to as much as five inches in parts of Connecticut and New Jersey. The good news is that system is pulling out this morning. Rain moves out of the region very early on and we'll see drier conditions. Unfortunately, though, Oyster from Debbie's going to bring rain back into the tri state area later tonight, and we'll see it again tomorrow and into Friday.
John the New York Posts a handful of people had to be rescued from their cars at Aarhizi water trapped them on the Henry Hudson Parkway and the major Diggon Expressway. Hamas is named the alleged mastermind of the group's October seven attack on Israel. As its new political leader. He succeeds a key mediator who's assassination last week has set back to cease fire talks. New York state voters support banning smartphones and classrooms by a wide margin. More from Bloomberg' Jeff Bellinger.
According to a poll from Siena College. Voters back a school smartphone ban by sixty percent to thirty two percent. There is growing nationwide concern that the devices distract from learning. New York City School's Chancellor David Banks said heat plans and across the board ban on mobile phones. Governor Kathy Hockel said she intends to propose a state wide ban in schools during the twenty twenty five legislative session. Some New York schools that already have bans in place have
seen positive results, including increased grades. Jeff Bellinger, Bloomberg Radio.
Global News twenty four hours a day and whatever he wanted with Bloomberg News Now, I'm John Tucker. Yeah, this is Bloomberg Nathan and Karen.
All right, John, thank you time now for the Bloomberg Sports Update with John Stafshawer. John, good morning, Good.
Morning, Karen. The Mets signed a couple of the free agents starting pitchers and the offseason Sean and I has been really good. Luis Severino the x Yankee, not so much specially lately. Sevarinos Era in July was near six. First start of August, took the loss in Denver. The
Rockies won six to three. Yankees reigned out at the stadium straight double letter with the Angels today starting at four when Baltimore lost in Toronto, had put the Yanks into sole possession of first by a half game, though White Sox had not one of James since July tenth. The twenty one game losing streak ended in Oakland. Chicago won five to one, raising its season record to twenty eight and eighty eight. Houston Astros got a no hitter early this season from Renel Blanco. They got one last
season from Fraanburg Valdez. Valdez in Texas was one out from another no hitter the Rangers. Kyle Seger broke it up for the home three gold medals won by US athletes. A neat Elore only twenty years old, she's the youngest American to win Golden Women's wrestling. She outscored her opponents by a combined thirty four to two. Track and field Cole Hawker upset win in the fifteen hundred meters. Gabby
Thomas took the two hundred. She had competed in Tokyo when there were no fans, not the case in Paris.
There is nothing like walking into a stadium of eighty thousand people and they're screaming and they're right on top of you. That is a lot of pressure to put on someone and a lot of pressure for us to kind of deal with. So it was definitely very different. But it's also it made it a lot more special when I crossed the line as a champion because I got to share that experience with everyone. I got to hear the crowd roar.
Men's basketball easy quarterfinal route went over Brazil one twenty two to eighty seven. Next up Serbia tomorrow in the semifinals. Next up for the US women's soccer gold medal Games senturdaygainst Brazil and both the quarterfinals and the semis against Germany. The US won one nil time, scoring the only goal in extra time. John stash Allett, Bloomberg Sports.
County, Nape Coast to Coast on Bloomberg Radio, nationwide on Sirius XM, and around the world on Bloomberg dot Com and the Bloomberg Business app. This is Bloomberg Daybreak.
Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager.
Vice President.
Kamala Harris is kicking off a crucial stage of her presidential campaign with her new running mate in tow and Minnesota. Governor Tim Waltz is already coming out swinging against Republicans Donald Trump and Jade Vance and his first appearance as running mate in Philadelphia. Joining us now is Tina Fordham, founder and geopolitical strategist at Fordham Global Foresight. Tina, it's
great to speak with you again. This morning. Vice President Harris introduced Governor Waltz as a fighter for the middle class. Of course, he's been credited with coining the term weird that seems to be resonating among Democrats when it comes to messaging against the Republican ticket. What's your reaction to his introduction out to a national audience.
You know, it was fascinating to watch the scenes at the rally in Philadelphia. There was a lot of energy, there was a very very interesting, i think, very positive chemistry between Harris and Waltz. And you know, like a lot of people, I didn't know much about him until his name got on the short list, but he's got an interesting story. But more than anything, his way of framing the issues I think is really landing. The weird idea is just one of those mechanisms. But also his plain spokenness is.
That going to be enough, the weird messaging to go after Trump and the Republicans.
You know, speaking from a political science point of view, it can be a very effective tool for marginalizing your opponent. You know, there are those who would say that using humor or satire is childish. I don't agree. And also it works a lot better than Biden's apocalyptic rhetoric, which really didn't move people well.
As a governor, as a former congressman, he does have a record. He supported free school meals, paid family leave as governor Pennsylvania. He has kind of a nuanced stance when it comes to China. He's got a long history as a former teacher. There could those be vulnerabilities for Governor Waltz anything.
It can be a vulnerability in this day and age where you know, people can dredge up something that was said decades ago. He's he's a vice president, he's not running as a president. He's not there to bring foreign policy cred to the ticket. This is a very unusual race. It doesn't necessarily need to be said. They're starting late in the game, and I think what Waltz brings to the ticket is a lot of energy. You know, his kind of football coach approached to going on offense. And
let's see how it resonates with voters. They if they want to be part of this, And it's also a generational changing of the guard. You know, they're both sixty, which is young in this race as it has been so far.
Yeah, interesting to think of sixty as young now considering where presidential races have been in the past, other than Trump and Biden, I suppose, But of course Governor Waltz has already come out as a favorite of progressives and blue collar workers. Was Vice President Harris really at risk of losing that part of the Biden coalition without bringing in someone like Waltz? Did she miss an opportunity? Why not picking someone with more centrist appeal like Josh Shapiro or Mark Kelly.
I mean, if you look at the data the Electoral College, you know, power of a vice presidential candidate hasn't amounted to much since you know, probably Al Gore and the state of Tennessee. And so we're talking about about point oh four percent. And what's more, this whole political beauty pageant that the Democrats have been through have really put people like Josh Shapiro, obviously, Pete Buddhajetz who already was
in the cabinet, Kelly and others much more prominently. So there's a sense that, you know, there's a lot of talent on the Democratic side to be mobilized for this. I don't think that the fact that Josh Shapiro isn't on the ticket means that Harris is less likely to get Pennsylvania. The other thing that's interesting about Waltz, of course it's less quantitative, is that he has one in
in red districts and in formerly red state. So that is powerful too when it comes to the idea of persuasion, and that's what the Harris Waltz ticket has to do fast to not only rebuild, you know, as much of the and maybe even the Obama coalition, but to persuade the disgruntled, independence and undecided.
This is Bloomberg day Break Today, your morning brief on the stories making news from Wall Street to Washington and beyond.
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