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Almost nothing was spared here on this Thursday afternoon, the first full day of trading. Once we learned about the new US tariff regime, an SMP five hundred that is going to pose the day lower by about four point eight percent. That's the worst day for the index going back to June of twenty twenty. It pushes the S and P five hundred back into correction territory down twelve percent from its all time high fifty three ninety six,
and change is where it settles. On the day. The Dow Jo's Industrial average lost more than sixteen hundred points on the day, taking it down by four percent on the day. The Nazak composite down one thousand points or six percent, the Nazak one hundred down a thousand points or five point four percent, the Russell two thousand down more than one hundred points or seven percent, s and P four hundred mid caps down seven percent down, transports
down nine percent. And I know, Alex you like to look at the equal weighted index that was underperformer relative to the S ANDP down four point a pers.
I'm just tech, yeah, yeah, just across the board. Unbelievable. I don't even know that I should even mention how many year down in the S and P, but I'll go there. You got four hundred and seven names losing ground. You do have ninety five names to mention, some hitting fifty two week highs in the S and P, but ninety five names alex higher in the S and P five hundred yep.
Taking a look that IMAM function really crystallizes the move that we're seeing within the equity market today. All sectors in the red except for consumer staples, as we just talked about, those are the kind of the only gainers, some hitting fifty two week highs, but energy, tech, discretionary, and industrials and financials all getting hit extraordinarily hard. Energy sectors off by over seven percent.
And just to to those superlatives, a KBW Bank index down ten percent, the biggest drop going back to March of twenty twenty three. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index Carol and TIM had their worst day since March of twenty twenty, down nine point nine percent.
YEP dollar wiping all of its gains out since the president's win on November fifth, that election win. So yeah, a lot of superlatives, no doubt about it. On this Thursday, I actually found some gainers, guys, and let's go to it. We were talking about certainly the consumer staples area, which was an outperformer easily the group overall. Coca Cola among that list, up two point six percent here in today's session,
so that was gaining. Another consumer staples Philip Morris, that one was up just shy of four percent here at the close. And then actually some fundamental reasons or at least something that could possibly change maybe the outlook for Intel. This one up at its highs almost nine percent today, finishing with about a two percent gain at the close. The information coming out and reported that the company tentatively agreed to a chip making joint venture with TSMC Taiwan
Semiconductor Manufacturing. Bloomberg News, you might remember back in February reported that the companies were talking about the idea at the request of the Trump administration. And in this one, the number one gainer in the S and P five hundred French fries YEP gotta love it. LAMB Weston Holdings up ten percent here at the close. The company came out and it posted fiscal third quarter results top estimates, and the management hired a consulting firm to look for
cost saving. So even in a sell off, guys, fundamentals still do matter.
And can I just add an honorable mention to there, and is actually on a sec on a country basis, please, Actually, one of the Mexico's main benchmark index actually had stage a pretty decent rally earlier in the day. It ended up flat on the day, and you actually saw some Indicas in Canada rally largely because of the fact that they did not get the worst of those reciprocal terists, if you will, that Trump laid out yesterday.
All right, well, let's go to some of the decliners. I had the easy job today, and in fact, there were so many decliners. I went with an entire index, the Bloomberg mag seven Total Return index following dated by six point seven percent. It's worst day in more than three years. Everything in there in the red. Apple down more than nine percent, Amazon and meta platforms down nine percent,
and video down close to eight eight percent. Tesla down six five and a half percent, Alphabet down four percent, Microsoft down two point four percent, all the biggest weights on the major indices and all among the most actively traded stocks today. Also did want to focus on retail today because we saw some deep, deep moves there, Nike following by fourteen point four percent. In fact, it's now trading at the lowest level going all the way back
to twenty seventeen. It was among the US and European sneaker, clothing and jewelry makers that plunged amid this shock to supply chains. Vietnam is the issue for Nike. It's the largest supplier of footwear for Nike. Today half of Nike branch shoes are made in Vietnam. Nike also faces additional challenges because it's so dominant in the US, which is the world's biggest single sports market. And finally, another retailer, RH plunging the worst day ever the owned company of
Restoration Hardware. They plunged as much as forty five percent, a record declined. This after the annual revenue growth forecast trailed Wall Street expectations. Fourth quarter sales and profit also missed the average analyst estimate. Trading now at levels last seen in twenty twenty, shares falling today by more than forty percent.
Where do you go. You go to lam Weston and you also go to the bond market. It was the front end that really outperformed here. The two year yield at one point was down by about seventeen basis points. It fell the most since August of twenty twenty four, and we're now at the lowest level since October, so
before the election. But overall, guys, we're looking at a twenty one basis point moved to the downside for the two year in just these four days alone, not even taking into account we're going to see tomorrow with the jobs number.
It was interesting too if you were looking for any bright spots, I mean, I'll leak you saw a lot of healthcare stocks move higher. Of course, again that defensive trade. In fact, that managed Healthcare index, the one that tracks the ones in the smb I, had a really good day. And it gets to that question as to if you do want to stay invested, you want to keep that money there you go, I mean, is there a safe spot out there right now other than you know, consumer staples and healthcare?
I don't know.
It's a good question, right, And I also do wonder if you do move that money at this point, you know, with what's certain, dear, what will it take for you to get more actively back into the market at some point. Certainly, again, you go back to so much coming out of the White House, so much coming out of Washington, and we know that this stuff can change, and so when do you believe that, Okay, this is the policy, this is
what stays in place. And I think that's what's going to continue to make it tricky, certainly for investors in businesses.
I just add though too, I'm sorry to interrupt, but just on the consumer staples front, because I think a lot of people were flocking there. You saw the rally and Pepsi and some of those names. But then you have the CEO of ConAgra was talking a little bit earlier today who really talked about how he's concerned. He said, right now, they're not being hurt. Right now, they don't have to make a lot of changes. But he basically said that you know, once the dust starts to settle here,
you know, things may not look good. And he actually talked about this idea of not really being able to give firmer guidance, and that might be the story of this earning season which really kicks off and in just about the four or five days.
Yeah, we'll certainly look forward to hearing from the executives of those companies and certainly the commentary from the banks about how consumers are doing in the meantime. Romayne, in your question about where actually to invest your money is a question we've been posing to our guests throughout the day. We did speak to Mace McCain over at Frost Advisors, who's actually not buying the trade of going to Europe right now. He thinks that's going to end very soon
and it's going to end poorly. He's sticking with US companies, but midcaps because they have less exposure to international markets. He's still bullish on the US in the long run.
But does that take into account economic slowdown though?
Yeah, I mean, look, he's staying invested right now. He's getting a lot of calls from clients. They're obviously very concerned. They want explanations of what's happening to the market. But he's staying invested.
Well, here's my thing too. And then in the short term, though, I wonder if we're going to see a lot more downside in that. When you have volatility spikes like this guy so and we're up to nearly thirty for the vics, you have funds that rebalance. Whether you're looking at ETPs or etns, or whether you're looking at say CTA's commodity trading advisors, or you're looking at volatility funds. They have to rebalance when volatility spikes and they have to sell stocks.
That's on a long term call, right, but that churn could continue through the next couple of days and they're forced to kind of rebalance here.
Actually, we put that question to Peter at Order over at William and Mary. You know, he's worked on Wall Street, he's now an academia, runs his own investment firm as well. And we said, you know, especially with the S and P five hundred from peak to trough down more than ten percent? Was it of almost twelve percent? So was this a bear market? Could it go lower? And his expectation was that, yeah, he thought things could actually go lower from here. So I think that's a really good point.
You know, have we bottomed out? And that's the question, all right, Dot that dot
