Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.
Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager.
And I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the stories we're following today.
Hearing this action in the market this morning follows a big reversal in markets yesterday. After gaining almost two percent earlier in the session, the S and P five hundred closed down eight tenths of one percent. The rapid slide followed a week forty two billion dollars sale of treasuries. Chadovi, a director of investment management and Huntingdon Private Bank, says now is the time to put your money to work.
We've been telling our clients not to be overcashed. Right. The one thing that we know for certain is that as interest rates start to go lower, whether that's because of market activity or FED activity, cashields are going lower. So if you have cash, b dollar cost averaging and look to those markets where you can get in on some of those dips, be a long term investor.
Huntington Private Banks. Chadovi It says stocks also came under pressure yes esterday because seventeen blue chip companies offered almost thirty two billion dollars of debt. That's the highest amount of US investment great issuance this.
Year, well Nathan, three quarters of the global carry trade has now been unwound. That's according to JP Morgan's quant strategists, who say the week's volatility has wiped out year to date returns and cut into the past two years of profits. Mark Cranfield from Our Market's Live team says the Japanese market, one of the homes of the carry trade, is still not stable.
It's a bit dysfunctional market you're seeing in Japan, and that's not too surprising when you consider the extreme volatility you've seen in the past week. It's really a market currently of headless chickens. People are just chasing everything, every headline, every nuance. So in terms of expecting volatility to die down, unlikely. We're going to have plenty of it, and we've got US elections coming as well. People are just going to get used to it.
Bloomberg's Mark Cranfield says the carry strategy involves borrowing at low rates to fund purchases and higher bilding assets elsewhere.
We care in the odds of a recession in the US are increasing. That's according to JP Morgan Chase, the firm now sees a thirty five percent chance that the economy tips into recession by the end of this year. That's up from twenty five percent as of the start of last month. Still, economist Duriel Rabini says the market may be getting ahead of itself on expecting aggressive rate cuts from the FED. He says the central bank is right to signal a soft landing.
The markets are often wrong about what's going on with the economy and what the FED is going to be doing. There is some significant, i to say, evidence of some slow down of the economy, but I don't think the data suggests that we're going to have a hard landing anytime soon. If anything, actually there's some elements of strength in the economy.
Duriel Rabini is known as Doctor Doom for predicting the two thousand and eight global financial crisis.
Well, Nathan, there are several stocks in the move this morning. We'll start with shares a Bumble. They're down more than thirty five percent. The dating app company is slashing its annual revenue outlook, and we get the numbers from Bloomberg's Charlie Pellett.
Bumble says annual revenue will grow between one and two percent from the previous year. The company had previously forecast growth of between eight and eleven percent. Wall Street was expecting an eight point four percent gain, according to Bloomberg compiled estimates. The company's third quarter forecast and second quarter
results also broadly missed the mark. Bumble, which went public in twenty twenty one, sawt shares hit a record low in February after it shared a weaker than expected sales outlook and cut around a third of its workforce in New York.
Charlie Pellett Bloomberg Radio, all right, Charlie, thanks and shares of Warner Brothers Discovery, You're down nearly twelve percent. The parent of CNN and the TNT cable network posted a second quarter charge of more than nine billion dollars after writing down the value of those traditional TV networks. The company was created in twenty twenty two when Discovery acquired WarnerMedia.
It has concluded the cable channels are no longer worth what they were when that forty two billion dollar merger was completed.
Well Nathan investor Kathy Wood is trying to take advantage of the recent stock markets sell off. She scooped up shares of tech firms, just as our flagship fund is synk to a new twenty twenty four low Woods Arc Innovation ETF bought Amazon Advanced micro Devices and Roku, a fintech focused fund of her firm. Arc Investment Management also added Reddit and meta platforms.
Let's turn to the latest in the presidential race, Karen. It is now a sprint through the key battleground states for Vice President Kamala Harris and her new running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Waltz.
Donald Trump he sees the world differently than we see it. He has no understanding of service because he's too busy servicing himself.
Governor Waltz spoke there in Detroit, Michigan, as his opponent for the vice president's Ohio Senator jd Vance tailed the Democrats. He spoke with reporters by her plane of Harris's plane Air Force two, near oh Claire, Wisconsin.
We think it's.
Important to get out there to talk to people, to make the best case.
That we can.
And obviously there's an element of especially local media is going to cover her because she's a vice president and a presumptive dominie. So we think it's important to have a counter narrative here and importantly to drive home this point that she has been a dangerous radical.
And after JD Vance's appearance on the Harris Waltz trail, a Harris campaign spokeswoman posted on x this is getting weird.
And Nathan asks his vice president campaigns through the key battleground states. President Biden says he is not confident there'll be a peaceful transition of power if former President Trump loses in November.
He means what he says, we don't take them seriously.
He means it to look what they're trying to do now in the local election districts where people count the votes elected, putting people in place in states that they're going to count the votes.
Right.
You can't love your country only when you win.
President Biden spoke to CBS News in his first interview since he ended his reelection bid last month. The full interview will air on CBS Sunday Morning, which can be heard on Bloomberg Radio in New York, Washington, DC, and Boston is Sundays at ten am.
Andy Karen Delta Airlines has been hit by a class action lawsuit. The airline is accused of failing to properly refund flyers or provide them with meals, hotels, or transportation vouchers after crowds strike software outage last month caused widespread delays and cancelations.
But it's time now for a look at some of the other stories making news in New York and around the world. For that, we're joined by Bloomberg's John Tucker.
John, Good morning, Good morning, Karen. Tropical Storm Debbi has made a second landfall in South Carolina on its way up the East Coast, where residents as far north as Vermont could gainst several inches of rain this weekend. Bloomberg meteoramalogist Rob Carrolyn is tracking the storm.
John.
The circulation associated with what's left of Debbie continues to produce very heavy rain over portions of the Carolinas, and this will be spreading into Virginia today. We're looking at numerous flash flood watches and some warnings from northeastern South Carolina across North Carolina, then up along the Appalachians all the way to central New York.
Debby came as shore early this morning near Bulls Bay, South Carolina. Taylor Swift's aeros tour has been canceled in Austria, and officials announced the irrative two men they accused of plotting a terror attack. Authority say, a nineteen year old Austrian citizen who had recently plunged allegiance to the Islamic state, focused on the Aras tour as a potential target. Nearly two hundred thousand people had been expended to attend the Vienna concerts, which were to start today. Bad news if
you're looking for a deal on an apartment. The Manhattan rental market still sky high. More from Bloomberg's Denise Pellegrini.
The average rental price in Manhattan one forty six dollars a month in July. The average rental price did fall from a year ago, but that's just because these size of the average apartment being rented fell. And forget about signing incentives. In Manhattan, deals offered by landlords plunged, and some lieutenants paid up above the list price. And if you were hoping to get a better deal in Brooklyn or Queen's, forget about it. The price per square foot
of apartments in those places also rose. Denise Pellgritty, Bloomberg Radio.
RAN's president telling his French counterpart, Emmanuel met Crown, the US and Europe must urge Israel to accept a truce in Gaza to reduce tensions in the Middle East. The comments hints at a diplomatic path at de escalation as Israel braces for retaliation after the killing of a top Hamas leader in Tehran. Global News twenty four hours a day and whatever you wanted with Bloomberg News. Now, I'm John Tucker, and this is Bloomberg Nathan and Karen.
All right, John, thank you. It's time now for the Bloomberg Sports Update. But John stash Hour, John, good.
Morning, Good morning, Karen. Is the Olympics start to wind down. Big day in Paris the two hundred meters with American Noah Lyles. He already won the one hundred and that thrilling finish. This is considered his stronger event. And the men's basketball semifinals as the US taking on Nicolo Jokich and Serbia. US beat the Serbs in an exhibition game and in group play, and both wins were by twenty six points. US women into the Semis. Win over Nigeria
makes it fifty nine Olympic wins in a row. They'll play Australia tomorrow. Quincy Hall's come from behind gold medal in the four hundred meters the third time an American runner has won gold with a rally at the end. Lyles did it, so did Cole Hawker the fifteen hundred meters. Hall was in fourth place around the last band. It's the first US gold in the four hundred since two thousand and eight. In Denver, Mets and Rockies tied to two, nine to eight.
First pitch fly to left field, fasehead fil Indor Fader scores. Here comes gabble around third, he will scored.
The throw is cut off at third.
Francisco Lindor with the basis loaded, drives in two.
It is four to two Mets.
In the top of the night on WCBS, Mets won five to three, another strong start for the New met Paul Blackburn his second in row and the Mets only half game behind Atlanta for second. In the NLS, Yankees and Orioles again tied for first. Yanks split two at the Angels at the Stadium. They won five to two behind Luis Heally got his twelfth win. The Angels then won eight to two with a six run second in off Yankee rookie will Warren Baltimore one, seven to three
in Toronto. Red Sox lost eight to four at Kansas City. The Giants won seven to four in Washington. The Football Giants host the Lions tonight in the preseason open to the two teams had two fight filled joint practices. The NFL find both teams two hundred thousand dollars for raffiellen allenounced he won't play the US Open next month. He will play the Labor Cup. That might be the last event of his career. John Stashedwar Bloomberg Sports can.
Navan coast to coast on Bloomberg Radio, nationwide on Sirius XM, and around the world on Bloomberg dot Com and the Bloomberg Business app. This is Bloomberg Daybreak.
Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager on another morning of volatility in the global market as the debate over central bank policy decisions around the world feeds into investor anxiety. Joining us now from London is Bloomberg Stocks reporter Joe Easton and a job between the worries about whether the Feds waited too long to cut and the unwind in the carry trades after the Bank of Japan's surprise hike, Where do things sid now? Good morning, Yeah, morning, Nathan.
So, I mean the thing I've been waiting to see is a rebound in stocksvill we're just not really seeing that at all. We're seeing yesterday in the US we saw a bit of a gain at the open, then a decline faded away. In Europe every morning we seem to be opening very slightly higher and then giving up the games. The market really not willing to bet on
a rebound as such. Stocks pretty much down around five percent over the past week, both in Europe and the US, and we're just not seeing investors to buy it back in. Maybe they're going to wait for a bit more date. Obviously, later we get the US jobless claims. That could be important in terms of the numbers, but we really need some kind of trigger for markets to actually turn, and we're not just seeing that at the moment.
Well, where you sit in Europe, we're continuing to see some pretty deep selling. What's driving that?
Yeah, So I think earnings have been largely negative here In terms of the large cap companies today, we had some big names like Semens. We also had a bunch of insurers kind of just being a bit slow in terms of where they growth. Our semens was talking about customers cutting back on orders, being slow to put new orders in. That had to kind of read across the
entire European industrial space. The bank numbers haven't been particularly strongviously, interest rates fading coming down will be negative for them, So we're just seeing just a bit of negativity. But you've got to also bear in mind that volumes are lower. Of course, a lot of people on holiday, a lot of the traders I chat to all of them red
dotted on the terminal today where they're just out. So the liquidity in the volume in the market is low, and therefore disappointment on things like earnings and data is just causing a bit more selling in these markets.
Now.
In terms of what's driving the broader market, a lot of it's been driven by the global unwind in the carry trade. After the Bank of Japan's move, the folks over at JP Morgan Chaser saying now they think it's about seventy five percent done. Could we expect some of this volatility to subside once this carry trade unwind fully shakes out?
Yeah, I did see the JP Morgan update. That was pretty interesting to say, given a lot of that trade potentially has now been closed out. Kind of depends on how much losses were booked there and how much leeway people have to buy back into other trades in terms of buying back into stocks, whether they'll just have to kind of hold their positions there that might kind of be wrapped up. So I don't think that will be
the main trigger. I think we'll need to see data. Interestingly, the US numbers next week will get US inflation, but that's kind of taken a kind of second step in terms of the importance. Now the market more focused on growth will get some SMP indexes in terms of the survey numbers next week, the ISM numbers as well later in the beginning of next month, So those are kind of the key dases that we'll wait for. I don't really think the Japan issue is going to be key.
It's more going to be about whether US economic growth continues to slow, whether the Fed's taken too long to lower rates, as you say, and also the earning story. Will markets continue to reward companies for doing well or are they too concerned about economic growth. That's the bigger issue for me.
Yeah.
And to your point about the data dependence in between all those data points you mentioned, is the jobless claims coming out this morning after all that betting about whether the Fed's behind the curve after last week's disappointing jobs report. I mean, what kind of volatility could we see just from this next upcoming data point.
Yeah, I'm excited to see that that will be coming up, as you say, at one thirty my time, eight thirty your time, So in one hundred and eighty seven thousand, I think was the call for continuing claims. We'll see whether that actually lands. I think that given the sensitive that you mentioned there, it could be a key data point. I mean, US futures pretty much lower on the SMP at the moment. Maybe people are going to position ahead of that, just wait to see what that number looks like.
If it's a decent number, maybe we see a bit of a rebound. You would expect that to be the case, but at the moment, maybe people waiting for those jobless claims numbers. Definitely going to keep me glued to my screen later this afternoon.
And in terms of where we sit now on rate cut betting, are we still thinking that there could be a possibility of an emergency rate cut. Are we still betting on aggressive moves from the Fed? Cut about thirty seconds lab.
Yeah, No, I think For me, I think traders unfortunately tend to overplay how much the Federal Reserve and other economists that do actually look at financial markets. They're more interested in economic data. For me, I don't think we'll see an emergency cut. They'll have to rate for the next meeting. I think that the Fed, like all central bankers, are more focused on the macro numbers rather than five percent decline in the S and P five hundred.
This is Bloomberg Daybreak Today, your morning brief on the stories making news from Wall Street to Washington and beyond.
Look for us on your podcast feed at six am Eastern each morning, on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts.
You can also listen live each morning starting at five am Wall Street time, on Bloomberg eleven three to zero in New York, Bloomberg ninety nine to one in Washington, Bloomberg one oh six to one in Boston, and Bloomberg ninety sixty in San Francisco.
Our flagship New York station is also available on your Amazon Alexa devices, Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty plus.
Listen coast to coast on the Bloomberg Business app, SERRIUSXM, the iHeartRadio app, and on Bloomberg dot Com.
I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow.
Join us again tomorrow morning for all the news you need to start your day, right here on Bloomberg Daybreak every b