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Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the stories we're following today.
We begin in the world of sports. The University of Connecticut is on top of the world.
It is a Yukon coronation, the Husky's march history back to back national champions.
That call courtesy of TBS. The Huskies did win the NCAA men's title over fellow number one seed Produce seventy five to sixty. And Yukon's not the only one we have to congratulate this morning. A special shout out to Whitney wolf Herd, the founder and executive chair of Bumble, won the annual Bloomberg Brackets for a Cause with a score of one hundred and seventy one, and her prize money will go to the charity of her choice, Baby
to Baby. We will have much more on the big game in sports in a few minutes.
All right, Nathan, will we now turn to be a of me and Former Federal Reserve policymaker James Buellerd says his base case is three interest rate cuts.
This year.
He cited successful policy in a strong economy but said more data is still needed before multiple cuts.
Some people are saying that the next report will lead to core PC being only two point six percent on a twelve month basis, So you're starting to get close enough. I think you have enough data in hand right now to justify the first rate cut. Maybe not a whole string of ray cuts, but you could certainly justify the first raycut now based on the data that they have.
And former Saint Louis FED president James Bueller's outlook echoes the effed's messaging on monetary policy this year, but contrasts with growing market expectations for fewer cuts. Here the full conversation on the Bloomberg Talks podcast feed, available wherever you get your podcasts.
Well, Karen, there are even some officials seeing the potential for no cuts at all this year, among them Minneapolis FED President Neil Cash cut sor.
My base case scenario is that inflation will continue to fall this year, and I jotted down in March that we would have two infrast rate cuts twenty five basis points over the course of this year, So that was my base case scenario. Then I explained, if we don't see any progress on inflation and inflation move sideways, then that would make me question why would we cut interest rates.
Minneapolis Fed President Neil Keshkari made those comments yesterday at an event at the University of Montana.
Well, the market waits for rapcuts, Nathan. The whole country is going to have to wait another twenty one years to witness what we saw yesterday. Millions from Texas to Maine were dazzled by a total solar eclipse. Just about everyone in North America got to see at least part of the sun blocked out. These people had a clear view in Niagara Falls.
Oh my god, it's so cool.
Holes through the side, unbelievable. My aunt actually came here from California, so.
Glad, I said, I'm going to come here and it's absolutely changing.
And I'm a science teacher, so it's my bucket list.
And the path of totality for this eclipse crossed through several major cities including Dallas, Indianapolis, Cleveland, and Buffalo, New York, and estimated forty four million people live on the track that saw the moon pass in front of the Sun for a full four minutes and twenty eight seconds.
Yeah, it was quite the show. Karen Well, Now we turn to the latest legal developments involving Donald Trump. A New York appeals judge has rejected the former president's attempt to delay his hush money criminal trial. Bloomberg Zed Baxter has the details.
So this means the jury selection is on the dock at to begin next Monday. The fifteenth Appeals Court Justice Elizabeth Gonzalez denying the attempt to not start the trial
on time, rejecting the emergency state. Now, Trump's attorneys are also challenging the gag order prohibiting him from making comments about Judge Merschawan's family, as well the judge rule that potential jurors will be asked whether they belong to groups like Antifa and QAnon, as well as whether they've been to rallies in support of or in opposition to Trump at Baxter Bloomberg Radio.
All right, ed, Thanks, Well, there's a new development in the January sixth case against former President Trump. Special counsel Jack Smith is asking the Supreme Court to reject Trump's immunity claims and allow a speedy trial Overs' efforts to overturn the twenty twenty election. The justices will hear arguments on April twenty fifth in our schedule to rule by the end of June. Smith needs a clear cut victory to have any chance of putting Trump on trial before the November election.
Karen, It's been a rough couple of days for former President Trump. On Wall Street. Shares of Trump Media and Technology Group, the parent company of his Truth social platform, have lost thirty six percent since late last month. More on that from Bloomberg Stug Prisner.
For Trump Media, some two point eight billion dollars in market value has been wiped out since March twenty sixth, and for Trump himself, his paper windfall has been reduced by some one point six billion dollars. His stake is now worth roughly two point nine billion. Now for Trump to capture a benefit, he'll have to wait six months before he can sell shares under a lock up agreement. Trump Media now has a market cap of roughly five
billion dollars. Last year, this company generated just four point one million in revenue in New York. I'm Doug Prisner, Bloomberg Radio.
All right, Doug, thanks from Wall Street.
To Washington.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is weighing in on TikTok, and that could spark the effort to pass a bill that would effectively ban the video sharing app in the United States. Bloomberg j Amy Morris reports from the nation's capital.
Senator McConnell says requiring ByteDance to divest from the video sharing app is squarely within established constitutional President on the Senate Flora McConnell says China's influence has been baked in from the beginning.
One hundred and seventy million Americans are active users from a social media platform at the People's Republic of China. Treachs as a tool of surveillance and proper.
Caranda McConnell backs a bipart as an effort to pass the bill forcing the China based parent company to sell TikTok. Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer has yet to commit to bringing the bill to the floor in Washington. Amy Morris, Bloomberg Radio, All right.
Amy, thank you.
In company news, Tesla has reached a settlement on the eve of its highest profiled trial yet over a crash blamed on auto Pilot. That's the driver assistance system that Elon Musk has built as crucial to his pursuit of self driving cars. Terms of the settlement were not disclosed.
Meanwhile, Nathan General Motors CRU's autonomous driving business is preparing to resume testing its robotaxis with safety drivers in Phoenix. Sources AGM is set to announce and begin the testing as early as today. Analysts say this marks an important step in GM's attempts to resume service after grounding its fleet to last year. And it's time now for a look at some of the other stories making news in New York and around the world, and we're joined by Bloomberg's Michael Barr.
Michael, good Morning, Good morning, Karenny.
Israeli leaders plan is set for military operations in the southern Gaza city of Rafa, where more than a million civilians have gathered. State Department spokes from Matthew Miller said the Biden administration is strongly urging Israel against the operation.
We have made clear to Israel that we think a full scale military invasion of Rafa would have an enormously harmful effect on those civilians, and then it would ultimately hurt Israel's securities.
Meanwhile, Paul Francis met with the family of hostages at the Vatican still being held by hamas evil.
He called them bad guys and evil, and he was very clear that the hostages need to come home.
I think you know we can all agree.
And Turkey announced restrictions on exports to Israel. The list includes more than fifty items, including construction materials. Turkey said it was taking measures against Israel after it opposed planned Turkish aid drip over the Guyza Strip. Three people are dead, including the gunman, after a shooting inside the Las Vegas law office. Police say it was just after ten am local time when shots rang out in Attorney Dennis Prince's
law office. Lieutenant Jason Johansson with the Las Vegas Police says the shooter killed himself after shooting the two victims.
One deceased victim is a female in our thirties, another one is a.
Male in his fifties.
Our suspect is also.
Deceased hereund scene, and he is a male in his seventies.
Lieutenant Johansson says the victims were apparently the shooters intended target President Joe Biden and Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kasheita planned form a consul on defense industries and allow shipyard workers in Japan to perform more maintenance work on US Navy ships as they look to shore up their military alliance. Global News twenty four hours a day and whenever you want it with the Bloomberg News Now Michael Barr, this is bloum hern all.
Right, Michael Burr.
Thanks, that's time now for the Bloomberg Sports Update with John stash Hour.
John, Thanks, carav Remarkable what the Yukon Huskies have done the last two years, back to back national championships, first to do it since Florida in two thousand and six and seven. So they won a dozen consecutive games and not one of them particularly close. In Phoenix, Yukon won the first half with Purdue thirty six to thirty, won the second half thirty nine to thirty. Won the game seventy five to sixty. Did it as usual with balance. Tristan Newton led the way this time twenty points seven
as says five rebounds. Coach Dan Hurley asked to compare this title with last year.
Maybe it feels a little bit better because it's like the last thing, knowing how great this team's been, we've taken you know, you know, we've worn the everything shirt the whole year, and we just everyone in this organization gave everything so that we could win everything.
This year, Perdue had its best season in forty four years. Zach EDI's career ends. Two time National Player the year last night defeat, he scored thirty seven. We'll see what the ratings were, but overall viewership almost certainly not what the women got. Eighteen points seven million tuned in for that South Carolina Iowa game. The last five years, only football and the Olympics have had more viewers in Atlanta
the honor of the late Henry Aaron. It was the fiftieth anniversary of his home run to break baby both record and then the Mets Brandon Nimo made like Aaron, hit two, had four hits, drove in five the Mets with a come from behind eight to seven win over the Brains. Yankees also used the long ball, a pair of three run shots in the fourth and eight, first Anthony Volpe, then Juan Soto his first in the Bronx. Yanks all over the Marlins seven nothing. The Yanks are
ninety two, the Marlins are one and ten. Shoeyotani his third home run as a Dodger, came in a four to two win at Minnesota. Mike Trout, already his fifth of the season, Angels over Tampa Bay seven to one. The Nationals beat the Giants eight to one. Blitz still roughed up this Giants debut. Nickson Chicago Tonight at the Ubs Arena. It's the Rangers and Islanders, if possible playoff preview John Stashedward, Bloomberg Sports.
Karen, all right, John, thank you. Is there a pretty much little change this morning in the ten year treasury yield is at four point thirty nine percent.
Coast to coast on Bloomberg Radio, nationwide on Sirius XM, and.
Around the world on Bloomberg dot Com and the Bloomberg Business app.
This is Bloomberg Daybreak. Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager. At first there was several rate cuts. Now it might be just one or none at all. Investors are trying to figure out just how much, if at all, the Federal Reserve will cut rates this year. Began twenty twenty four expecting several cuts throughout the year. Well, Former Saint Louis FED President James Bullard says he still thinks we can
see multiple cuts this year. He sat down with Bloomberg's hustling to Amin on the sidelines of HSBC's Global Investment summit in Hong Kong. Let's go now to part of that conversation.
I think at this point you should probably take the Committee on the Chair at face value. I think their best guest right now is still three cuts this year, and of course the data can go one way or another, but that's the base case. I think it's been a very successful policy. The policy rate was increased a lot during twenty twenty two, and inflation fell quite a bit in the second half of twenty twenty three. Last year, at this time, core PC inflation would have been two
hundred basis points higher than it is right now. That's the committee's favorite measure. So you're looking at a very successful policy with a pretty strong economy. So a lot of things going.
Right for the FED right now. So Powell has been right so far.
Yeah, I think he's been right so far, and the Committee's been right so far to pursue an aggressive strategy to bring inflation back to target. Most of that was in twenty twenty two, and then you bore the fruit in twenty twenty three and into twenty twenty four.
Here we talked about how so the FED is data dependent?
Paul himself says he is data dependent. What exactly does that.
Mean and which data in particular is he looking at should be looking at?
I think right now, I think it's mostly the inflation data, because on the real side of the economy, things are going very well, and you can argue about why, but they're going very well. The Committee doesn't really have to worry about that side of the mandate right now. All they've got to worry about is getting inflation back to the two percent target, and they've come a long ways back. Already was four point eight percent now two point eight
percent core PC inflation on a twelve month basis. That means you've only got eight tenths of one percent to go, And some people are saying that the next report will lead to core PC being only two point six percent on a twelve month basis, So you're starting to get close enough. I think you have enough data in hand right now to justify the first break. Maybe not a whole string of ray cuts, but you could certainly justify the first ray cut now based on the data that they have.
We talk about how the US economy is very strong.
So would you say that the risk in the US economy right now is.
Inflation and not growth? Fair to say that that's I think that's right. Yeah, Why is the US economy so resilient? I mean, not too long ago we were expecting a recession one hundred percent or you know, priced in of a recession.
Yes, here we are with a very resilient economy.
Yeah.
Last year, at this time, you had the bank failure of a Silicon Valley bank and other banks, smaller banks around the country. That was overinterpreted to mean that the US was going into recession. I don't think it was ever a good story to tell, because yes, their banks failed, but they're only a small fragment of the total banking and the total intermediation sector in the US economy. So
I think that card was overplayed. And not only did the US not go into recession in the second half of twenty twenty three, but the economy actually boomed in the second half of twenty twenty three, so you really got a very strong outcome and that has continued into the first part of twenty twenty four. Here, although I would say we're we're going to be closer to the trend growth right now, not way above trend the way we were during the last six months of twenty twenty three.
Some people talk about the US economy being a two track economy.
What's the risk in that? What do you mean by two tracks? There's some parts of the economy that's actually very weak.
Yeah, I think that's always the case, probably in any really big economy. There are always some things that aren't going so well, or some markets where there are problems. But I think that it's very encouraging that the overall picture is very strong for the US.
You took about the risk.
Of the fact possibly being behind target, behind the CoV so to speak, how do you assess that risk that it may be behind the CoV.
Yeah, I don't think that this has really come into view yet because things are going so well. So it's a good problem to have. The economedy is doing well, inflesh is coming down. But if you don't pay attention to everything that could happen, you might weigh the probabilities a little bit off. So it's maybe a minor problem to have, but it's just something you keep an eye on. In the monks, I haead.
That was former Saint Louis Fed President James Bullard speaking with Bloomberg's Hustling to a Me and catch the full conversation on the Bloomberg Talks podcast. This is Bloomberg Daybreak Today, your morning brief on the story's making news from Wall Street to Washington and beyond.
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And I'm Karen Moscow.
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