Fed Leaning to More Hikes; Leaked Documents Latest

drug for now? And renst in Manhattan have reached record highs. I'm John Tucker. Those stories straight ahead. I'm John stash Award Sports. The Yankees rallied to win in Cleveland, the Mets meet the Padres, and the Islanders won the Clinton plaoff spot. That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg day Break, The business news you need disturn your day, and just one fifteen minute podcast each pointing on Apple, Spotify, The Bloomberg Business Appen everywhere you get your podcasts. Good morning,

I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Cameron Moscow. Here are the stories we're following today. We begin this morning with a bevy of news on the global economy starting here in the US. Despite fears of a looming recession, FED officials appear on track to extend their run of interest rate hikes when they meet next month. Here's San Francisco Fed

President Mary Daily looking ahead. There are good reasons to think the policy may have to tighten more to bring inflation down, but there are also good reasons to think that the economy may continue to slow even without additional policy adjustments. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daily is not

a voting member this year on the FOMC. Well, Nathan, the Fed will have more data to digest later this morning, a day after we saw consumer prices show signs of moderating in March, the latest reading on producer prices comes out today. We get a preview from Bloomberg's Michael McKee. The good inflation news is wholesale prices have been coming

down faster than retail. While the consumer Price index rose five percent last month, the producer race indexes forecaster to come in almost half that, helping the most dropping commodity prices, bringing down food and energy costs. While there isn't a direct connection between the CPI and PPI indexes, the producer data offer hope for a continued fall at the retail level, so good news in the producer numbers may lead to another drop in bond yields. Michael McKee, Bloomberg Daybreak, Thanks Mike.

In Europe, the UK economy stalled unexpectedly in February. Let's get the details on that line from Bloomberg's un Parts in London. Good morning, Huen, Good morning Nathan and Karen. It's been a winter of industrial action in the UK. Strikes across public transit, health services and elsewhere were a key factor in February's GDP reading, which showed zero growth for the month. But there was better use for a she Senac's government. With January's prints revised up to north

point four percent growth. The data reduces the risk of recession this year, but still leaves the UK on track for an extended period of stagnation. In London, Immune Parts, Boomberg Daybreak, Thank you and thanks, and there's more e mc data this morning. In Asia, China's exports unexpectedly rose last month thanks to improving demand from Europe and most of Asia. Bloomberg Daybreak Asia anchor Brian Curtis as Moore from Hong Kong. A big surprise here. Exports up fourteen

point eight percent from a year earlier. We saw a pickup in demand in Southeast Asia, South Korea and Europe. The estimate was for a drop of more than seven percent. Now, the divergence in the projected and the actual was the biggest sense twenty eighteen. We've seen exports contract from late twenty twenty two as demand in the US, the EU and other countries lost momentum. This game in March was

the first in six months. Bloomberg Economics is not convinced though, that it will continue, and imports dropped one point four percent in On Kong. Bryan Curtis, Bloomberg Day Break. Thanks Brian. Let's turn to politics now. President Biden's in Dublin on the second day of his three day visit to Ireland. He will meet with the Prime Minister Leo Radker and address the Irish Parliament. President Biden was in Northern Ireland yesterday, calling on leaders there to put aside post breaks at

differences that have kept government at a standstill. A government that works to find ways through hard problems together, it's going to draw even greater opportunity in this region. So I hope the Assembly and the Executive will soon be restored. That's a judgment for you to make, not me, but I hope it happens. The President Biden spoke yesterday in Belfast to mark the twenty fifth anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement. Donna See and Ruey's a fellow at the

Center for Strategic and International Studies. The President himself said, you know, peace was not inevitable. I would say it also was not guaranteed even after the signing of the agreement. So it's really important to mark that anniversary so that we can all remember there's a lot that needs to be done to sustain that piece and move beyond some of these models of segregated politics in Northern Ireland. Donna See and Ruey with CSIS, was a guest on Bloomberg

Sound On with Joe Matthew. Catch the show weekdays at one pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio. Well back in Washington, Nathan, we have new developments this morning on who may be behind the massive leak of secret US documents that had been posted online for weeks, and Amy Morris says the details from our Bloomberg ninety nine one newsroom in Washington.

The documents were linked to an online platform called Discord, popular with gamers, and on that platform is a smaller chat room made up of young men and boys who share a love of guns and military gear. The Washington Post spoke with members of that chat room, and one, a minor, agreed to be interviewed. He spoke on condition of anonymity and with his parents' permission, and says the leaker goes by OG, and that is not working with

foreign governments. I want to keep OG's identity secret because I still care for him like he's a family member. He is not a Russian operative. He's not a Ukrainian operative, he says. OG works on a military base. Discord has released a statement saying it's cooperating with law enforcement in Washington. I'm Amy Morris, Bloomberg Daybreak, Thanks Amy, and in entirely different news out of Washington. Looks like one of the world's richest people will not be adding a football team

to his toy chest. Let's get the latest on that Live with Bloomberg, Steve Rappaport, Steve, Good Morning, Nathan and Karen. Source tells us Jeff Bezos will not assume command of the Washington Commanders. The Amazon founder was considered a frontrunner to acquire the team from Dan and Tania Snyder. They began exploring options following relevations of the team's toxic work environment. Last month, a group of investors, including NBA legend Magic Johnson,

made a bid for the Commanders. The Snyder's asking prices said to be nearly six billion dollars, a record amount for an NFL franchise. Live in New York, I'm Steve Rappaport, Bloomberg Daybreak. It is sixty seven degrees in New York. It's going to be sunny and warm today with highs in the low eighties. We'll get down to the low sixties tonight under a clear to partly cloudy sky. Time now to take a look at some of the other stories making news in New York and around the world

with bloombergs John Tucker, Good morning, John, Yeah. Nathan of FENDERL Peel's Corps. Hans preserved access to an apportioned abortion drug for now, but under tighter rules that would allow the drug not only to be dispensed up to seven weeks, not ten, and not by mail by two to one vote. A panel of three judges narrowed for now a decision by a record judge in Texas that had completely blocked

the FDA's approval of the drug. Following a lawsuit by methapristone's opponents, former President Donald Trump has filed a five hundred million dollars lawsuit against his former attorney, Michael Cohen for allegedly violating their attorney client bond and spreading with The lawsuit claims is embarrassing at detrimental lies. Public statements by Cohen helped form the basis for last week's criminal

indictment of Trump by the Manhattan DA. Rans in Manhattan have reached record highs and the busy season isn't even here yet. Let's find out more in this report from Bloomberg's Jeff Bellinger. The median monthly raid rose to a record high four thousand, one hundred seventy five dollars in March. That's according to a report by appraiser Miller Samuel and

the brokerage Douglas Element Real Estate. And that's up twenty five percent from the previous peak reached in July, and almost thirteen percent more than a year ago, apartment hunters have not been able to catch a break, even as more units became available and the borough's vacancy rate continued to tick up, and the busiest and most expensive period of the year for rentals traditionally July and August, is still ahead, signaling more record highs to come. Jeff Bellinger

bloom Bird Day Break. Diane Feinstein has been a voice for California the un Senate for thirty years. Now some of her colleagues one are gone. The eighty nine year old senator has been absent from Washington for about two months, taking out a key Democratic vote Wednesday. Representative Roquehanna Fellow California twitted what many of his Democratic colleagues have long whispered, it's obvious she can no longer fulfill her duties in

the race for president. In twenty twenty four, a South Carolina's Senator Tim Scott launching a presidential exploratory committee, and without referencing the former president's name, offering himself as an alternative to Donald Trump. I was raised by a single mother in poverty. The spoons in our apartment were plastic, not silver. Senate, it's only blank Republican insisting mccrants quote weaponized race to dividus, pitching his life story as proof

of a different path forward. Global News twenty four hours a day, Power and buy more than twenty seven hundred journalist and an analyst in more than one hundred twenty countries. I'm John Tucker, DC is Bloomberg Nathan. Thank you, John. Time now for the Bloomberg Sports Update. Good morning, John Stashower. Good morning nighth and first time since two thousand and seven, all three New York area hockey teams are head of

the Stanley Cup Playoffs. The last of the three to earn entry, The Islanders did so with a four two win over Montreal at the Ubs Arena. Rock Nelson scored twice, finishes the regular season with thirty six goals. Islanders in the first round will play either Boston Carolina or the Devils. The Devils could also play the Rangers, or they could end up playing Florida. It'll all get sorted out after tonight. Also after tonight, we'll know the teams that'll be seated

eighth in the NBA playoffs. Chicago will play at Miami. Oklahoma City goes to Minnesota, Bulls and Thunder both one last night on the road next ready for Game one Saturday night at Cleveland. The obvious storyline to this series the Knicks tried all off season unsuccessfully to acquire Donovan Mitchell from Utah. He ended up instead with the Calves. The Knicks coach is Tom Tibotock. He's a great player, right you're looking at what he's accomplished in the playoffs.

He's a very accomplished playoff player. So we're gonna have to be at our best and throw a lot more than just Donovan. And it's not just Donovan, because he's obviously a superstar. Garland, he and Garland together, and then we add in Mowgli and al and Jib's not sure if Julius Randall will return from his ankle and dream played for the Nixon Saturday. The Yankees have played four series. They've won them all, only the fifth time they've done that.

Four three win at Cleveland after trailing early on three nothing. Another home run for Frankie Cordero his fourth and seven games. Mets got home runs from Peter Lonzo and Francisco Lindor beat San Diego five to two. Tampa Bay beat the Red stops nine to seven, the Razor twelve and oh they can tie the MLB record for best start ever

with a win. Today, John Stashower Bloomberg Sport live from coast to coast, from New York to San Francisco, Boston to Washington, d C. Nationwide on Sirius Examp, the Bloomberg Business app, and Bloomberg dot Com. This is Bloomberg Daybreak. Good morning. I'm Nathan Hagar. The policy path for the Federal Reserve is in focus this morning after the latest reetings on inflation and the minutes from the Central Bank's

previous meeting. Despite calls for a mild recession later this year, the Fed did go ahead with a quarter percentage point interest rate hike. So what's in store next month? Let's bring in Simon French for some analysis. Chief economist at Panmer Gordon Simon, It's good to speak with you. I wonder what your read is on the latest Fed minutes. Why did the head go ahead with that hike despite what they were hearing from the staff that we could see a mild recession by the end of this year. Yeah,

good morning, Nason, and pushed to join you. So my reading of it is This is uncomfortable core inflation generating in the second half of the next year, of this year,

stagflationary conditions in the US economy. Now, that is where central bankers, particularly on the Federal Reserve Policymaking Committee, are going to be very uncomfortable with the backdrop of doing not just the tightening that they did in March, but the expectation that they will further tighten in May in order to squeeze out the last part of what is uncomfortable core pricing increases against the backdrop, as you rightly say, of an expected to slow down a mild recession in

the United States. But to some extent, that mild recession will be a function of how rapid the recovery from the pandemic was and how much consumers have leveraged themselves in terms of divesting of their savings and adding new credit card and loan debt. Is I call for a recession exacerbated by what we've seen in the banking sector, the regional bank collapses and the potential for further credit tightening.

So I think there's two parts of this. Is the direct tightening of financial conditions that came from reduced risk appetite from lenders having seen what seems like a sort of a quite considerable challenge to the regional banking network in the United States. But there is also a second order effect, which is the propensity of businesses and consumers to take on credit against this backdrop, against the backdrop where risk appetite, when you'll have concerns over the underlying

banking system is undoubtedly going to pull back. And I think this is what we got from the commentary from the economists within the Federal Reserve, is there is expected to be that second order effect on sentiment even if headline interest rates and lending criteria for US businesses in US households doesn't fall out, particularly from the events of the banking crisis of recent weeks. Is that a factor that could steer the FED, that could lead it to,

if not pause, pull back on rate hikes. Certainly, And we have to say, even in advance of the banking sector fallout, there was already voices and we saw them again in the minutes yesterday within the Federal Reserve saying, look, we have done more than four hundred bases points of tightening into this economy, and monetary policy does not happen instantaneously. It famously has long and variable lags, and those lags

are probably eighteen months to two years. And in that environment, there will be an element within the Federal Reserve voting group who will say, look, we have to see how what we have done already impacts the economy over the next twelve eighteen months, two years. Is to ascertain whether we've done enough tightening or not, because it is impossible to say at this point with any certainty as to what that impact will be of leaving the lower bound, which we've been stuck at for the best part of

a decade. We get producer prices later on this morning, what's your expectation there and how much of a factor does that play into what the Fed could do next month. Yes, so producer price is normally a bit of a backwater of economic data, and I think producer prices will be a considerable slowdown. We saw in the services data last week that US businesses were seeing input costs now slowing and in some cases falling, but their output costs were

still rising pretty high. And that obviously brings into interview of the fear of profit profiteering from the corporate sector. A very big theme on Capitol Hill. I think that's a really difficult optic for a central bank that is trying to stay a political adness. It's very political if it feels the corporate sector seeing falling producer prices is still passing on pre considerable cost increases the consumer base.

This is Bloomberg day Break Today, your morning brief on the stories making news from Wall Street to Washington and beyond. Look for us on your podcast feed at six am Eastern each morning, on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. You can also listen live each morning starting at five am Wall Street time, on Bloomberg eleven three zero in New York, Bloomberg ninety nine one in Washington, Bloomberg one oh six one in Boston, and Bloomberg nine

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