Good morning.
I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the stories we're following today.
We begin with the global economy and interest rates. The Federal Reserve makes a policy decision this afternoon, and while the Central Bank is not expected to make any move, there is much anticipation to the message Jay Powell will deliver. We get more from Bloomberg's Michael McKee.
Once again, it's a question of what they say rather than what they do. Markets have priced out any chance of a rate increase from the Fed. Instead, investors will focus on clues to what the Central Bank's plans are going forward. Will they keep their June forecast of at least one more rate hike before the end of twenty twenty three, and what will their revised economic forecasts say about the chances of rate cuts in twenty twenty four.
We'll also get officials updated outlooks for employment, growth and inflation. Expect Chairman j Powell to emphasize uncertainty in his post decision news conference as the economy faces headwinds including rising oil price is, a government shutdown, and the auto workers strike. Michael McKee, Bloomberg Radio.
All Right, Mike thanks to stay with Bloomberg for full coverage, including the Bloomberg Surveillance special. The Fed decides later this afternoon.
Well, Nathan, as we wait for that Fed decision, we got a surprise you can Numberg report that could impact tomorrow's Bank of England decision, and we go to London and get the latest with Bloomberg's You and Potts.
You and good morning, Good morning, Karen, Nathan.
Britain's inflation rate has unexpectedly dropped to the lowest level in eighteen months. CPI in the year to August came in at six point seven percent. Economists not the first time they've been wrong. We're expecting the reading to tick up to seven percent. And good news on the UK's core inflation rate, which fell sharply from six point nine to six point two percent. Investors have reined in bets for further tightening from the Bank of England, though a
quarter point hike is still the consensus. We'll find out tomorrow in London. I'm you in Pot's Bloomberg Daybreak.
All right, ew and thank you all. This morning, we're seeing more calls for oil to reach one hundred dollars a barrel Goldman Sacks is raising its forecast for crude back to triple digits as demand booms and OPEC plus supply curves tight in the market, with prices rising more than thirty percent since mid June. Goldman pushed up its twelve month forecast for Brent to one hundred dollars from ninety three and checking Brent right now, it's at ninety
three zho two a barrel. That's down one point four percent. Nine X Crud's down one point four percent as well, at eighty nine dollars ninety cents.
Well. Another call this morning, Nathan, this one on the Equity Markets Bank of America. Savita Supermanian is boosting her target for the S and P five hundred after this year's rally left many forecasts in the dust. The strategist now expects the benchmark to end the year at four thousand, six hundred, about a three and a half percent gain from current levels. Her previous SMP target was forty three hundred.
Sticking with Markets, Karen, After starting trade yesterday in Stackhart shares are down as much as five percent in the pre market. The drop follows yesterday's volatile action for the online grocery delivery firm. The stock initially surged forty three percent, but ended the day with a gain of twelve percent. We get more from Bloomberg's Katie Roof.
It's quite better than what they were initially hoping several days ago, but definitely it's lower than the valuation they had in twenty twenty one, a lot lower than that, but around the thirteen billion where they were valued last year.
And Bloomberg's Katie Riff says instacarts listing, combined with arms IPO, is giving equity capital markets much needed relief after the longest drought since two thousand and nine.
Now to the latest on the auto strike, which enters it's six day naighthan, the UAW says it will step up pressure by the end of the week if negotiations don't progress. Bloomberg's Ed Baxter has the story.
UAW President Sean Fain has set a Friday noon deadline for good negotiations or an escalation in the strike.
If we don't make serious progress by noon on Friday, September twenty second, more locals will be called on to stand up and join the strike.
Representatives from gm Ford and stillattis say bargaining has continued in good faith. Ad Baxter Bloomberg Radio thanks Ed, We've got some labor resolution. North of the border, workers at Ford's Canada unit have avoided a strike. UNIFOR the Canadian Autoworkers Unions reached a three year national labor contract in Canada.
Rather than negotiating with all three major automakers at once, UNIFORM selected Ford as the target for bargaining well Nathan.
President Biden will be focused on improved labor conditions as the UN General Assembly continues. He'll meet with Brazil's President Luis and Nacio Lula de Silva and announce a partnership to how workers move into the gig economy and clean energy. The President will also be looking for brazil support for Ukraine and its war against Russia. That was the focus of his annual address to the gathering.
If we abandoned the core principles of the United States to a peas and aggressor, can any member stayed in this body feel confident that they're protecting.
And Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelanski made his own appeal. He says Russia is turning everything for food, to energy and children into weapons.
Those children in ra Ah tools to hate Ukraine and old ties with their families are broken, and this is clearly a genocide.
And even with these new calls for support, the US and G seven allies now say they're preparing for the war to last for years to come.
Meanwhile, Karen Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's continuing her call for financial institutions to make voluntary net zero carbon commitments.
Our goal is to affirm the importance of credible net zero commitments and to encourage financial institutions that make them to take consistent approaches to implementation.
Secretary Yellen spoke at the Transition Finance Action Forum in New York hosted by Bloomberg. Man It's down time to take a look at some of the other stories making news in New York and around the world with Bloomberg's John Tucker.
Good Morning John, and Nathan.
The operators of a Bronx daycare center now facing federal drug charges. It comes after one child died three others were poisoned from exposure to fentanol. Friday, the federal prosecutors took over the case against Gray Mendez and Carslito Brito, who are religedly operating a drug distribution business. Prosecutors say a kilogram brick of fentanyl would start on top of children's playmats. That's enough fentanol to kill half a million people.
According to a draft securities filing, American Dream That Mega Mall in New Jersey's Meadowlands has seen its losses increase fourfold in one year. More in this report from Bloomberg's Charlie Pellett.
The three and a half million square foot shopping and entertainment complex, home to an indoor ski slope, amusement park and water park, lost about two hundred and forty five million dollars in twenty twenty two, as expenses almost doubled to four hundred and twenty eight million dollars. This is according to a three page document posted to the Municipal Securities Rulemaking Boards EMMA website in New York. Charlie Pellett Bloomberg Radio New.
Yorker's spending habits are cooling and the New York State Control Or Thomas Didapoli is warning towns and cities to adjust their budgets. He also says paying to house migrants coming into New York is unsustainable.
You know the City's estimating some twelve billion dollars in terms of the next couple of years of cost. The state financial plan has about one and a half billion in it for migrants. The governor has indicated some more money will be put aside for that, but I don't see how the state or the city could get through this without additional federal support so far has not been forthcoming.
DiNapoli was interviewed on Bloomberg Business Week. Prince William managed to go jogging in Central Park yesterday without paparazzi or anybody else noticing.
I decided to join the holds of New Yorker's during that morning routine as they went Rassiter Park. It was wonderful waking up in New York on a Sunday morning run the rain we had yesterday and it was it's beautiful getting some fresh air this morning.
He went out for a run before announcing the fifteen finalists for the twenty twenty three Earth Shot Prize, a competition he created three years ago to find the most innovative solutions to global environmental challenges, and health experts with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention predicting what they call a repeat of a triple demic this fall and winter with COVID nineteen RSV and influenza. The CDC earsing people to get flu vaccinations and their COVID nineteen booster
before winter. Global News twenty four hours a day, power by more than twenty seven hundred journalist and analysts in more than one hundred and twenty countries. I'm John Tucker. This is Bloomberg, Nathan.
All right, John, Thanks Now, get the latest news whenever you want it with Bloomberg News Now the top stories from our global team of reporters at the click of a button. Get Bloomberg News Now on the Bloomberg Business app, Bloomberg dot com, and anywhere you get your podcasts. Time now for the Bloomberg Sports Update. Here's John Stshower.
All right, Nathan. The Yankees are certainly hoping they don't finish this disappointing feason with a sub five hundred record that hasn't happened since nineteen nine. The record dropped to seventy six and seventy five a seven to one loss to Toronto at the Stadium. George Springer had a lead off home run for the fifty seventh time in his career, get it on his thirty fourth birthday. Yanks All had a lot to say about whether the Blue Jays make
it in as a wildcard. Still have five games remaining with the Jays who are in a battle very tight now with three Al West teams Houston, Seattle, and Texas, those three separated by only a half game, and the teams that don't win the division in it with the Jays for a wildcard. Miami Marlins won of four teams buying for two NL wildcards. The Marlin scored five of the nine they get the Mets.
Sport at three.
The Liberty moving on to the WNBA playoffs. They beat Washington ninety to eighty five in overtime to win the series two nothing. Brianna Stewart knows the Liberty had not won a playoff series in twenty fifteen.
It means a lot.
I think that, you know, I don't know if we're thinking about getting this team back to somewhere where the Liberty hasn't been in eight years, but.
You know, the first time.
We've been able to do it as a group.
And today there was highs and lows, and we knew it was going to be emotional.
Under the semi finals against either Connecticut or Minnesota. The word on Saquon Barkley was that he was going to be out three weeks with the injured ankle, A coach Brian dave All talking about him being out only three days. Dave Ball not ruling Barkley out for Tomorrow's game at San Francisco SAT.
Barkley's a quick viewer.
Buddy Stevens has died at sixty six from injuries suffering a bicycle accident. Coach Dartmouth the five IVY League titles Jus Stashally.
We're Bloomberg Sports.
From coast to coast, from New York to San Francisco, Boston to Washington, DC, nationwide on Syrias Exam the Bloomberg Business Appen Bloomberg dot Com.
This is Bloomberg Daybreak. Good morning. I'm Nathan Hager on decision day for the Federal Reserve. Two pm. Wall Street Time is when Jpwell and Company will announce their plans for interstrates this month and send the signal to markets for where policy could be headed into November and beyond. So let's get you set for what's to come from
the Central Bank. Bloomberg's pretty Gupta is here with me now, and this decision really could be a lot more about what's to come than any move the FED makes today, because we're rarely not expecting a move, are.
We We're not expecting a move And I'm I believe, just to emphasize how much of a consensus take this is five and a half percent of economists estimated by Bloomberg think that the Fed is going to actually.
Raise or move rates at all, which tells kind of where the rate is, right, Yeah, five and a half percent, I know the irony rate.
So essentially, in other words, ninety four and a half percent of Bloomberg economists or surveyed at least by Bloomberg, are saying that the Fed is not going to do anything. But Nathan, that's I think the crux of it here is that they're kind of setting this tone for the rest of the world, which is that we're going to have faith that the rest of the effect on the
economy is going to slowly come. The idea here that these lags that I think a lot of people had maybe shrugged off early on because inflation wasn't decelerating as fast as perhaps people wanted it to. That is no longer the narrative at play now. It's simply that we
just wait for the lags to take effect. And I think that's one of the reasons that you're seeing the Federal Reserve kind of perhaps indicate, at least from the comments that we've gotten out of the FMC members, that they're going to be taking them a little bit more
of a hands off approach on this. But Nathan, all of that could change based on what Jay Powell says around wages and around oil, because of course we know that the strikes across the country and arguably across the world as well, have captured a lot of attention, specifically with the United autoworkers, where auto wages are significantly below
manufacturing wages broadly. But at the same time, you're seeing much higher oil prices around the world, which is going to have real effects on the American consumer as we talk about gas prices, especially going into the election next year.
Yeah, and you have to wonder how much this surge in oil prices we've seen in recent days. Obviously we're getting a bit of relief this morning on this session, but this idea that we could be getting to one hundred dollars a barrel in the not too distant future. What's that's going to mean for the lag effects that the FED wants to see from policy.
Yeah, well, I'm old enough to remember when oil went negative, and I'm also oiled enough to remember when oil went to one hundred and forty three dollars a barrel. And let me tell you, those round numbers one hundred and one, twenty, even ninety make traders and people, by the way, everyday consumers very very nervous.
To your point.
Goldman Sachs actually came out this morning and said that their twelve month ahead price forecast was.
One hundred dollars a barrel.
We're at about ninety three right now, which tells you this is a pretty significant call that in about twelve months time, in a year's time, when a lot of people are expecting inflation to come down much more significantly, prices are still going to be one hundred dollars a barrel. That's the price that people are saying, and this kind of speaks to the stickiness of the inflation that a lot of people are worried about. I think what's scary
for me is that the inflation. What's driving it is coming more from commodities again, which is going to have real effects into how much your grocery build costs, how much your gas bill costs, even heating and electricity.
You have to think the decision that's coming tomorrow from the Bank of England is going to get a lot more interesting now that we've seen this surprise drop in inflation. Who would have thought that we'd be considering the idea of a rate pause from the Bank of England.
I know.
I mean, Andrew Bailey was supposed to be this kind of renegade, almost essentially, this kind of lone wolf in the sea of central bank doves, and he has turned out to kind of maybe lean towards what Chair Powell and President Legard are saying as well, which is simply that the Bank of England has gone very very hard
on inflation. What is the lag there? And do we now just wait for the lags to catch up with the broader economy while we sit on the sidelines and reassess And that is something nobody really expected the Bank of England to say. What I will say, though, is that it's a little bit different because even though they might hike tomorrow, which I guess is the consensus call,
but then that could be its last. They are, or at least there is a narrative that they will increase their quantitative tightening policy and essentially sell bonds on the open market, which could create some disruption.
There just about a minute left, Critty, We're in day six of the United Auto Workers strike. Does this thing look like it's expanding.
It's not expanding yet, but it's not shrinking either. In fact, you are seeing a little bit of progress made to the north in Canada, where their union will be able to make a negotiation with Ford. But again, they do say Canadians are nicer than Americans anyway, so maybe that has something to do with it.
Okay, we'll leave it there for now, Kritty Gupta. Bloomberg News part of our coverage of the FED decides this afternoon two pm Wall Street Time, waiting for the decision from Chairman Powell and the Federal Open Market Committee. Powe will address the media, of course, at two point thirty half hour after the decision. We will have full coverage for you on a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. The
FED decides, beginning at one thirty pm. Wall Street Time full coverage of Decision Day and all the central banks right here on Bloomberg Radio. Now we want to bring you to New York and the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly, where we heard from the Mayor of London, Sudi Khan. He says UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is week for pulling back on green policies rather than looking for opportunity in the climate crisis. Bloomberg's Francis Laquais sat down with the Mayor of London.
Well, what's happening is some people are trying to weaponize climate change, weaponize air pollution. And here's the perversity of what Prime Minutes of Sunac is doing. We've seen in the UK in September, in London in September, for the first time ever, four consecutive days of temperatures north of thirty degrees celsius. We saw la year in London, temperatures north of forty degrees celsius. Wildfires in London. We've seen across Europe and the global North in America, wildfires, droughts,
heat waves. The response of government should be actually to turn this awful crisis into an opportunity, creating green jobs, a green new deal, thinking about how we can both save the planet, address climate change, but also give people security and.
Have that just transition.
And this is basically, you know, lazy politics from a weak prime minister throwing red meat to his backbenches because he's so weak and ineffectual.
Do you think you.
Could have been better supported by ker starmarch with you.
Guys, Well, I recognize that we've got to make sure we take people with us. I recognize that addressed people's concerns, but concerns. But from Kirstarmer and the Labor Party, what I would hope to see him we are seeing is
plans to address the time. You've got an announcement from the Shot of Finance Secretary Rachel Reese saying, you know what, in the first term of a Labor government will be invested into the tune of twenty eight billion pounds a year, which is a wall terms, akin to lot more than President Biden's Inflation Reduction Act.
But Mayor, is it fair to say that you could have gotten more support by Drestarma on U les and also in the by elections, and you haven't because it's now a political hot potato.
Well, what happened was the by election in Oxbridge and Rice that took place a few weeks before the units was expanded. People had judguine concerns which we were addressing at the same time people were playing on that as well. As said Kier and I are are of close friends. We've over more than twenty five years. The only thing we disagree about is I support a great soccer team, great football team Liverpool. He sports a rubbish roun arsenal okay pick.
But apart from football, what kind of advice would you give him to win the general election?
No, I don't give care advice. You know what I do is au frenttic care. But also an example of what a labor politician winning the difference we can make being pro business, supporting businesses to flourish and thrive, being pro enterprise, being pro fighting a climate agency, being pro clean building, recognumns affordable homes, making sure we invest in public transfer and young people. And what O want people to see across the country is that that's the difference
labor winning can make. Compare to contrast to a conservative government where there's been economic mismanagement. List trust is all from many budget last year, but also a week at in effectual Conservative leader.
What can Labor now do to be closer to businesses? There has been a campaign to actually get them on board. I think the latest polls show that they be pretty happy with the Labor government.
What would you do more?
Well, there's two The two things that people want to see from good leaders. One is addressing social injustices, but also economic competence, supporting businesses, being proud to support businesses, being pro businesses, to be pro business. One of the things that we've got to have the humility is polities to do accept is you know, we don't create the jobs the wealth of prospiracy after we think we do, but
we don't. We can create the environment where businesses flourish and thrive, and work with businesses to be pro well paid jobs, to work with businesses to make sure they invest in young people, to work with businesses to train up people to have the skills for the jobs being created. My nervousness about the Layer Party is our reputation in the recent past has been with anti growth or anti prosperity. What Casarma Rachel reeves their teams have done is to reassure businesses by listening to.
Them that we are pro business.
We're back at business As a result.
Mayor Sure, should London have gone the rm IPO and was it a kick.
In the teeth not to have done so? I'm sorry hey the r IPO. Well listen. But the great thing about you know, London is our in the line strengths is still there. We you know, even post Brexit, we are still a city that has got all the things that businesses need to invest in London, to expand in London, and to run in London.
This is Bloomberg Daybreak Today, your morning brief on the stories making news from Wall Street to Washington and beyond.
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