From the Bloomberg Interactive Burgers Studios. This is Bloomberg day Break for Monday May fifteenth.
Coming up today, Debt ceiling talks prepared to resume tomorrow, Border crossings drop, bucking expectations of a surge, Turkeys poised for a runoff, PHOTUS President Erdawan tries to stay in power.
And Newmont Mining makes a nineteen billion dollar acquisition.
New York area hotels will be used to house asylum seekers plus victims. On the anniversary of the Dudley Buffalo supermarket shooting, where we remembered, I'm Michael Barr.
More ahead, I'm Tom stan Sharan's fourth.
The Yankees lost eighty seven of the Rays the Mets with two in Washington. The Celtics won Game seven from the sixers.
That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg day Break, the business news you need to start your day in just one fifteen minute podcast each morning on Apples, Spotify, the Bloomberg Business app, and everywhere you get your podcasts.
Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the stories we're following today.
Karon.
We start this week with possible signs of progress on the debt ceiling. It appears that talks between President Biden and congressional leaders will resume tomorrow.
Bloomberg's Ed Baxter has the story.
The buzz over the weekend from all sides is that progress is being made, and during a reporter spray, President Joe Biden was asked, will it.
Be on Tuesday?
It's been reported it'll be tuesday.
Thinks so, and he says he feels good about it.
I remy not be mistake because I'm a conngeneral optimist, but I really think there's a desire on their part as well as ours to basagreement.
I think we'll be able to.
Do Meanwhile, Congress from Michael McCall, caution's adversaries are watching.
Particularly China, to see us default.
You know, our full faith and credit.
All of course subject to change. In San Francisco, I'm at Baxter Bloomberg Daybreak.
All right, Ed, thanks Willas talks appear to resume, the White House is repeating calls for Congress to lift the dead limit. The latest such comments come from National Economic Council Director Lyle Brainerd.
The staff is very engaged. I would characterize the engagement as serious as constructive. When I talk to CEOs to business leaders around the country, they tell me things are actually going very well, but their biggest concern is that Congress might fail to prevent default and that that would be catastrophic.
Hile Brainerd made the comments on Face the Nation from CBA schedule the program every Sunday on Bloomberg Radio Care and the.
Risk of default appears greater than it's ever been and that has Wall Street looking for the best place to put money to hedge that risk. We have a new survey out and Bloomberg's John Tucker joins us with the details.
John and Nathan the game of Chicken over the debt ceiling, putting the glitter on gold. More than half of finance professionals say the precious metal is what they would buy if the US government fails to honor its obligations, and that doesn't seem to be much of an alternative. In a distant second to gold US treasuries. That's the pick for about fourteen percent of investment for fas Now that's a bit ironic since that represents the debt on which
the country would be defaulting. Bitcoin came in third, even ahead of the US dollar the Japanese Yen and the Swiss franc in New York on John Tucker Bloomberg Daybreak.
All right, John, thanks, Now, let's turn to the situation at the southern border. The surgeon migrants that had been expected after the end of pandemic era restrictions has apparently failed to materialize. Homeland Security Secretary Alejandra Mayorcis says there's been a fifty percent drop in border encounter since Title forty two has lifted last week.
We have seen I think approximately sixty three hundred on Friday and about forty two hundred yesterday by the United States Border Patrol, and we saw over ten thousand before the end of Title forty two earlier last week.
Homeland Security Secretary Alejandra Mayorkis spoke to CNN yesterday. He says it's still too soon to know if the surgeon crossings has peaked.
Another major political story this morning, Karen brings us to the elections in Turkey. Preliminary results show President Retchip type Ernawan with a lead of more than two million votes, but that may not be enough to avoid a second round of voting. We get more from Bloomberg's use of Kamali al Dean in his standball.
Ninety nine percent of the vote down and President ch of pipe Erhon maintains that there's still a chance that he could win it in round one. In Canaklitch the rolo about to sort of forty five percent in round one, says he could win round two as it comes to it.
But reality is also coming together in terms of the stronger position that the incumb but president finds himself in in round two with the parliamentary numbers speaking in his favor and the third contender for the vote in round one and Olgan that's about too manion votes and the people have spoken to suggest that a good number of those people are more likely to vote for President Richard pypeer On when it comes down to it.
Bloomberg's use of Kamali al Dean says risk assets in Turkey fell on the results Turkish stock slump sick zero point four percent before triggering halt and trading.
Well in London today, Nathan, UK Prime Minister Rishi Suna Guess meeting with Ukraine President Vladimir Zelenski, and we get more from Bloomberg. So you and pots in London, you and good morning.
Good morning counter Nathan, Paris, Rome, Berlin and now London. Vladimir Zlenski's tour of Europe continues today with a surprise visit to the UK by Minisousisinak is set to promise more weapons for Kiev, including hundreds of attack drones and air defense missiles. Zelenski's whistletop mission comes as Ukrainian forces prepare for a counter offenses to take back territory occupied by Russia. In London, I'm you and pot'spin Bog daybreak, new and thanks.
Got a couple of deals to begin the week.
First, Australia's New Crest Mining has agreed to a takeover deal with Neumont. Bloomberg's Doug Krisner has the story.
Newmont first approached its Australian rival back in February with a non binding bid worth seventeen billion dollars, but it was rejected by the board at Newcrest. Then in April, Newmont sweetened the offer by more more than two billion dollars and described it as the best and final offer. Well, now Newcrest has accepted terms worth roughly nineteen point two billion dollars. This deal would create the world's largest gold producer, with assets in North and South America, Africa, Australia, and
Papua New Guinea. Newmont will also expand its exposure to copper, a key metal in the clean energy transition in New York. I'm Doug Christner, Bloomberg Daybreak.
All right, Dyke, thanks.
If we have a nearly nineteen billion dollar oil pipeline deal. One Oak has agreed to buy Magellan Midstream Partners. A deal would create one of the largest oil and natural gas pipeline operators in the US.
Time now to take a look at some of the other stories making news in New York and around the world with Bloomberg's Michael bar Good morning, Michael.
Good morning, Nathan. New York City has accepted tens of thousands of migrants, even though officials say the system is strussed. Mayor Eric Adams is now converting the Roosevelt Hotel into an emergency migrants shelter. The historic hotel close during the pandemic and will reopen and transform into an arrival center this week, opening nearly one thousand rooms for asylum seekers.
They will have access to social and medical services. Sunday marked one year since the deadly shooting and the supermarket in Buffalo, New York, people paused to remember the racially motivated massacre at tops supermarket. Church bells chimed across the city to honor the ten people killed and three others wounded. New York Governor Kathy hokel racism.
Did not win on to day that the people of Buffalo said that love will come out and be the winner on this day. I am proud of you, my fellow Buffalo, as I'm so proud.
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer also spoke at the memorial, saying families of the victims helped in funding for mental health care.
We put money into mental health services which were so needed, all because of the work the families did.
Now we have a lot more to do.
This fight isn't over. The eighteen year old gunman was sentenced to life in prison without parole. Florida Governor Round Descantis appears closer to announcing his run for the White House, stumping in Iowa over the weekend. The most recent ABC News Washington Post poll of Republicans and GOP leaning independence showed a fifty one percent people of preferring Trump to be the Republican nominee. That's more than double the lead
over DeSantis, his nearest opponent. Over the weekend, more than fifty twisters tour across the Midwest, from Texas to Nebraska to Illinois, one of them deadly striking a town in South Texas, killing one man and injuring about a dozen others. This man was able to survive the storm.
Oh Wendell came in and it picked me up up ben and threw me into the walls.
The EF one tornado had wins of up to one hundred five miles an hour. China has sentenced a seventy eight year old United States citizen to life in prison on spying charges. John Hin Wang Lung, who holds permanent residency in Hong Kong, had been detained on April fifteenth, twenty twenty one, by the counterintelligence Agency. Global News twenty four hours a day, powered by more than twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts in over one hundred and twenty countries.
I'm Michael Barr, and this is Bloomberg Nathor.
Thank you, Michael.
Time now for our Bloomberg Sports Update, brought to you by Tri State AUTI.
For that we bring in John Stanshallen all.
Right, Nathan.
The Yankees and the Rais just comfitted seven games in ten days. Six of the seven were decided by one run. Both teams had comebacks from six to nothing deficits. The Yanks did that on Saturday Yesterday, they trailed three to nothing, then led four to three four four fifth inning bases loaded too at the first battle that Albert of.
Ray who fazed was the Raise Taylor Wall.
One two pitch, swinging a high drive towards right center, heading.
Back judge to the wall.
Grand slam. For the second consecutive day, the Rays have hit a grand slam, and they've got an eight four lead in the Bronx EAE.
The call Yanks closed that gap, but a week after they trying to win the series, but lost eight to seven. Another Sunday, going for a series win, another eight to seven defeed, Mets had lost five straight series. They won't lose the one in Washington that ends tonight. After losing to the Nats three to two in the completion of the suspended game, they won eight to two, scoring all eight in the fifty. Max Sures would beat his old team, got his first winning over a month, Celtics improved to
twenty seven and nine in their history. In Game seven, blew out Philadelphia one twelve to eighty eight. Jason Tate imported in fifty one points, most ever in a Game seven, and so the East Finals Celtics and the Miami Heat. For the second straight year, the third time in the last four years, the Vegas Golden Knights are into the Stanley Cup West Final of five to two Game six win at Edmonton, Jonathan Marcisso had a natural hat trick
three goals, all in the second period. The Aussee Jason Day shot sixty two on the Byron Nelson Golf in Dallas' first PGA wins in twenty eighteen. And now it's onto the PGA Championship. That tee's off Thursday in Rochester. John Stashaweer Bloomberg Sports.
Live from coast to coast, from New York to San Francisco, Boston to Washington, DC, nationwide on SIRIUSXAM, the Bloomberg Business app, and Bloomberg dot Com.
This is Bloomberg Daybreak. Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager.
We are seeing a bit of optimism at the start of this new training week with debt talks continuing in Washington and about of M and A news. Let's bring in Lauri Calvacina for an outlook on the new week, head of US equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets.
Laurie, it's great to speak with you.
I know you've been talking for really months now about the risks to markets from a prolonged debt ceiling standoff. It seems like that's where we are right now. So do you share this market optimism that we are sort of seeing this morning?
So thanks for having me as always, And look, I think the debt ceiling is one of these issues that you know, I would say long only investors I talked to that hasn't been the top thing they ask about over the last few months, but it's been one of the things they won't let me get out of a meeting before we talk about. So I just think that they're you know, I do think it's on people's minds
for quite some time. I think we have only though recently, really started to see the hedge fund community start to pay attention.
And what, as I tell you, when we have the hedge funds starting to pay attention to this, what could that mean? For the broader market as we get closer to that so called X state.
So look, I think that the issue that I noticed I was in London a few weeks ago and we were talking to a lot of sort of global macro type hedge funds, and they were quite negative on the US already because they think the US is expensive, they don't believe in the tech trade that was underway at the time and it's still underway today. And they also just think that the US is economically disadvantaged relative to
Europe at this point in time. And so that's where the debt ceiling comes in as sort of a potential negative catalyst to push a market they don't already like down and also to throw some extra burden on the US economy. You know, my point is, I do think that the debt ceiling is a risk for markets. I'm not quite as vverish a lot of those London investors I spill with, but I do think it does have the potential to add to some volatility in the market
this summer. The thing we've been talking about since February is there are kind of two kind of dramas you can get associated with in the debt ceiling, A total drama year where there's a lot of other stuff going on, my twenty eleven, twenty eighteen, twenty fifteen, twenty sixteen, those will get you about a ten to nineteen percent draw down in the equity market. A non drama filled year where this is kind of the only scandal going on, that will get you about a five to six percent
hit to markets. And so our assumption has been we'd at least see a five to six percent out of volatility from this. But we do think the fact that we have this banking crisis, keeping confidence fragile, in recession fears really mounting, similar to twenty fifteen twenty sixteen, that could put something a little bit more nefarious like a ten percent draw down on the table. As always though, Nathan, there are a lot of layers of this. This is an onion. The more we peel it, the more complicated
things get. So you know, I do think that from a sector perspective, we put out a piece this morning that so things might be a little bit more complic and we initially assumed.
Yeah, I want to pick up on your point about the uncertainty that from the hedge funds, you're hearing from about the growth trade. That has been something that's really paid off in recent weeks as we get through this debt ceiling standoff. What's your view on whether the growth trade is still something worth looking at.
Well, you know, we had been thinking a few weeks ago that the growth trade was due for a breather and that the market was due for a breather, and this was just really you know, based on the idea that kind of this broader text cimt trade is a huge component of the broader market from a marketcap perspective. And then if you look at the tech trade and stuff, we've had a whole bunch of catalysts. So first off, we pre traded the set pause and interest rates coming down.
Then we had the banking crisis that push people out of value and into growth again. People have been talking about a sluggish economic recovery down the road that's good for growth stocks. And then we have this monster earning season for tech companies which really gave us some positive catalysts. So we've said, look, we've had a lot of positive
cat for this trade. Maybe you know, it's time for the market to take a breather on these debt ceiling fears, and you know, what are the other catalysts for tech coming? You know what is interesting is I did do an analysis last week looking at sector performance and past debt ceiling drawshounds, And the funny thing was, Nathan, it's the value sectors in the market that tend to get hit hardest. And so some of the more recent weakness we've seen on financials, even when we had thought some of the
regional banking fears had died down. You know, we just sort of laughed when we saw this because the debt ceiling turns out it's just another thing that's much worse for values than growth. So maybe we've picked up on something else that could buy the growth and tech trades for just a little bit longer.
Only about thirty seconds left here, Laurie. But another potential catalyst is coming up tomorrow in the retail sales figures. What's your expectation of whether that could add further to the volatility.
So I think, you know, we're kind of living day to day on these economic data planes. I think what was interesting in this last reporting season was that we were seeing evidence of both consumer resiliency. If you looked at the more services driven companies and the more good driven companies are continuing to talk about channel shifting and more negative impacts that they're seeing. So that's the general thing that we think we've been continuing to see in consumer.
You know.
I do think investors, on the one hand, they're ready to get a recession over if we're going to have it. On the other hand, they do also want to see some evidence that that consumer resiliency still exists. So I think we'll look for those kinds of details tomorrow.
This is Bloomberg day Break Today, your morning brief on the stories making news from Wall Street to Washington and beyond.
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I'm Nathan Hager and.
I'm Karen Moscow. Join us again tomorrow morning for all the news you need to start your day right here on Bloomberg Daybreak