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This is Bloomberg day Break Weekend, our global look at the top stories in the coming week from our Daybreak anchors all around the world, and straight ahead on the program, a look at GDP and PC data here in the US what that could mean to federal reserve policy going forward. I'm Tom Busby in New York. I'm Stephen Carol in London.
Who We're looking ahead to the presidential election in Iran and asking what shifts, if any, it could mean in the country's foreign policy.
I'm Derek Prisner, looking at US China relations as presidential candidates Biden and Trump prepared to debate.
That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend on Bloomberg ey Loove, the three own, New York, Bloombergen ninety nine to one, Washington, DC, Bloomberg one O six one, Boston, Bloomberg nine sixty, San Francisco, DAB Digital Radio, London, Sirius XM one nineteen and around the world on Blue Bomberg Radio dot Com and via the Bloomberg Business App.
Good day to you. I'm Tom Busby, and we begin today's program with some key economic data here in the US this week are reading on first quarter GDP that's a third and final reading, and the Personal Consumption Price Index for May. That's the inflation measure closely monitored by the Fed. What could it mean for consumers and for Fed policy moving forward? Well, for more, we're joined by
Stuart Paul, us economist with Bloomberg Economics. Well Stewart, we've seen some encouraging data on inflation CPI PPI over the past two months. What do you expect to see this week?
We're expecting to see similarly encouraging signs when it comes to PCEE inflation. We estimate, based on the CPI and PPI data that we've already seen, that headline PCEE inflation is going to decline to two point six percent in May from about two point seven percent in April, and that's really facilitated by a swing in gasoline prices. Gasoline
prices decline during the month of May. Typically gasoline prices rise during summer driving season, so you have both the actual price of the pump and the seasonal adjustment factor weighing on headline pce inflation for May. The core PCE measure which matters quite a bit more for the Federal Reserve that's also going to show some encouraging signs by slowing to two point six percent from about two point
eight percent prior. It's still the case that shelter is undergirding core inflation measures, but we are seeing core goods prices decline when we map CPI to PCE space, and we also are seeing some softening services prices within the core. If we're looking outside of shelter, we see declining prices for airfares, for recreational services, for personal care services, some of those more discretionary spending categories, and we think that that's related to consumers starting to tell in their belt
a little bit. We did see pretty discouraging signs in the retail sales report just last week.
But we also saw import prices down. That's a reaction possibly to people not spending as much. And it looks like all that US energy production at a record high and a slight demand just really helping out, really changing things.
That's right, It is helping to weigh on a headline inflation.
Now.
The big question, of course, what could this mean to the Federal Reserve. It's leftist benchmark lending rate unchanged seven meetings in a row dating back to last September. Another policy meeting at the end of next month, right the thirtieth and thirty first of July, just five weeks away.
That's right, So any encouraging signs on the inflation front bodes well for the interest rate outlook. The Fed in its previous meeting changed its own outlook for interest rates. It had previously expected to cut interest rates by seventy five basis points this year, but in its most recent update it's now showing just one twenty five basis point
cut this year. We think that the encouraging signs on the inflation side and consumers starting to tighten their belt could result in maybe two interest rate cuts this year,
perhaps in September and then one in December. It gets a little bit tricky around election season, but with inflation coming in, with inflation slowing on a monthly basis and on an annual basis, with core inflation slowing, signs are starting to point to the Fed perhaps being able to cut two times this year, but probably only starting in September. If they were to decide to get two cuts off this year.
And as always, the key to this is a pattern. That's right, Yeah, that's right.
So we have seen two encouraging monthly inflation prints. The first quarter was a little bit rough, but we're starting to see a bit more evidence that a trend is building in that slowing inflation landscape.
Oh boy, well, let's that would be encouraging. Let's talk about first quarter GDP. This is a third and final reading. A prior reading reported a growth of one point three percent, but we could see a little upside surprise to this.
Now we could see some modest revisions coming in, so perhaps an upward revision of Q one GDP to an annualized pace of growth about one and a half percent from as you mentioned, one point three percent in the second estimate. It's starting to get a little bit stale for driving FED policy. So what's really going to matter
is the Friday Personal Income and Outlays report. And although we are seeing more recent data showing personal income growth, there is something that's stopping consumers from taking that income and driving spending. There is something, perhaps more consumer caution, that's going to lead to further slowing. Even if we were to see an upward revision to Q one GDP, as we look at the Q two data, we could see some additional slowing as consumers become a little bit more cautious.
Now that slight change in GDP. Is it the same exact factors you know? Or is there something else what changed?
It's the same factors, It's just a little bit of additional precision as time goes on, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Bureau of Economic Analysis has the time to more precisely measure the factors that go into gross domestic product and gross domestic income.
Okay, so first quarter GDP that is out on Thursday, May Personal consumption Core Price Index out on Friday. A lot to look forward to, and our thanks to Stuart paul, Us economist with Bloomberg Economics. Moving to company earnings now, the world's largest express transportation company, FedEx, reports its latest earnings on Tuesday. What will the results tell us about the health of US supply chains and business and consumer demand?
And for more? We're joined by Lee Clascal, Bloomberg Intelligence, Senior Transport Logistics and shipping analysts. Well, Lee, what do you expect to see from FedEx in its Q four earnings this week?
Yeah?
I think that the company is going to report a number that's probably more or less in line with consensus. I don't think there's really any divergence from there. But you know, what we do expect to see and we really hope to see, is continued improvement on their cost cutting measurements that they've been trying to reduce costs for
some time. They have two programs in place called Drive and Network two point zero, and that's supposed to generate around six billion dollars in cost savings for the company. And you know, what the company is trying to do is right size its network to kind of match the realities of how its business has changed so much over the years with more of a focus of B two C business versus B to B business and B two C business, which is, you know, shipments that go to
your house, whether you buy something online or otherwise. You know, it tends to carry lower margins, and so they're trying to improve that lower margin business by taking costs out.
Well. I think it's been working because in margin this year, FedEx said it's worldwide headcount was down about twenty two thousand over the past year or the prior year. Just two weeks ago, it's had of plants to slash another two thousand jobs in Europe. So are these cuts still going on? Is FedEx still cutting jobs?
Yeah? I mean, they absolutely are, and they need to write size. I mean, FedEx for a long time became a little bloated, you know, over the years, and the focus really wasn't so much on margin, shall I say? It was probably about the air fleet and in other things. And I think that you know, as management changes happened at the company, kind of priorities have shifted, and you know,
the company has become a truly show me story. And management has been producing some pretty good results over the last couple of quarters, and we can we expect that to continue. You know, a couple of months ago, it announced that it was no longer doing the line Haull business, the airline hall business for the US Postal service. That business was, you know, about a two billion dollar revenue business, but extremely low margin. And you know what that capacity.
They're able to free up that capacity, and not only are they able to fill it with more profitable business from small to mid sized car shippers, but they're also able to say, hey, maybe we don't need ten planes in a certain lane, maybe we can only you know, we only need to do six flights as opposed to ten. So they're able to kind of lower their own cost structure by reducing their air network, which is which is something that you know we expect to see and you
know that will definitely benefit its margins. And the company
is also going through a major transformation. For the longest time, it operated separate ground and air networks, and now it's it's becoming more of a hybrid where some of it's you know, air freight business or vians I go through its express network, are now going into trucking if it makes sense, if it's not like you know, needs to be there the next day, it might make sense pushed into their trucking network, which carries significantly less costs and
so therefore, you know, better margins for the company. So you know it, we're in early innings towards this shift. They changed their reporting structure this month, so you know we're going to see that going forward.
Now, those same cost cutting efforts, raining and spending, streamlining operations as allowed fed X to announce plans to buy back five billion dollars of its own share so at least shareholders must be thrilled about this.
They are, They are outperforming their peers. You Know, what I would say is investors are probably still remain a little skeptical about FedEx and its ability to change its cost structure. Again, that's why I mentioned it was a show me story. They really need to prove and execute on their plans to build positive sentiment sentiment amongst monks investors. So that's something you know that we're we're really watching. And then you know, you're also kind of in a
time where demand isn't great. Their express business volumes are expected to be down on one one percent in the quarter. Ground volumes, you know, might be up about one and a half two percent in the quarter, and they're less than truckload business fed X freight, you know volumes are expected to be up less than one percent. So you know, we have kind of a tepid demand outlook. Obviously, a stronger consumer would bode well for them, A positive ISM
number would bode well for them. You know, positive industrial production numbers would bode well for them. So you really need to see the economy begin to accelerate from here for that volume picture to get better. The kind of good news for them is that comps do definitely become easier in the second half of the calendar year, and so you could see an acceleration of volume growth and even you know, volume inflecting positive and business later on the year, albeit you know, a low single digits.
Well just about six months ago before the holidays. FedEx's latest earnings out this Tuesday, and our thanks to Lee Klascow, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Transport, Logistics and shipping analyst. Coming up on Bloomberg day Break weekend to look ahead to the presidential election in Iran and whether it could mean a shift in the country's foreign policy. I'm Tom Busby and this is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg day Break Weekend, our global look ahead at the top stories for investors in
the coming week. I'm Tom Busby in New York. Up later in our program a look at US China relations. As presidential candidates Joe Biden and Donald Trump prepare to debate this week, but first Orian set to hold a snap presidential election in the coming days that follows the sudden death of former leader Ibraham Raisi in a helicopter crash last month. But the vote comes at a time
of heightened tension between Iran and the West. For more, let's go to London and bring in Bloomberg Daybreak europe banker Stephen Carroll Tom Ibraham.
Raisi's death came at a sensitive time for Iran and for the wider Middle East. Tehran came close to an all out war with Israel in April when it launched a direct military strike on Israel after its consulate in Damascus was bombed. Now, the president's influence is limited in Iran, but we could see some subtle shifts in policy when the new president is elected. I've been discussing the context for this election with Bloomberg's Golnarmotavali, who leads our coverage of Iran.
TV debates are actually quite critical in Iranian elections because what they do is that they give you an immediate sense of how the candidates are and being received by the public. It's the major exposure to the broader general public. And I think last debate was kind of interesting because it very much focused on the economy. So obviously there was a lot of discussion about sanctions and inflation, which is a massive problem in Iran and in Iraq's relationship
with the West and the broader global economy. This is a very highly circumscribed process. So it's a ballot that's very dominated by conservatives and hardliners, and we have only one reformist candidate of the six that are running.
And who are the key names to be watching as we move towards the polling.
Day, So the big names, I mean think it's important to point out that quite a few important, very high profile conservatives were disqualified, were not barred from running, which is interesting, including people like Ali Larry Jaranni, who's a very influential conservative politician. It's the second time he's been barred. But the names that we need to keep deep and said Jali Lee, who's a former nuclear negotiator under Ahmadi Needrard.
He's a very very radical, hardline, deeply religious person, very anti Western, very anti US, opposed to the nuclear deal. He very much is kind of in the mold of let's keep our relationship with China and Russia as strong as possible. We don't need the West, we don't need Europe. We're very capable of being self sufficient economically. He's very much of that mold. The other names that we need to look out for are Masud Pezeshkian, who's the one
token reformist. But he's quite an influential and important reformist because he was health minister under Moham Maghatami in the late nineties and early two thousands, and he can become quite a serious I mean, the cynical view is that he's there just to lend legitimacy to the vote, so that Harmonae and the establishment that run the islam Republic can say, look, we don't just have hardliners, We've got
a reformist choice there as well. But the fact that he's actually quite a serious reformist name actually raises the possibility that he might boost turnout, and a boost in turnout is always going to work in favor of moderates and reformists.
Yeah, I'm interested to get your view on how engaged the public has been in Iran in this campaign. Is it something that people feel as is sort of addressing the key issues in their lives.
I don't think so. I think for many years there's been quite a strong sense of political disenfranchisement and disenchantment in Iran. We've had some really violent uprisings and protests recently, most notably in twenty nineteen and obviously more recently in twenty twenty two after the death in police custody of Maths Amini, who was arrested for allegedly violating these strict
Islamic dress codes that apply to women mostly. That caused a huge convulsion across the country, and the establishment is rightly, very very concerned about internal political dissent. I would say that opposition to the whole system of the exact republic it has been, and you know, has been an all time high since the nineteen seventy nine revolution, for I reckon for at least since twenty twenty two, and that's
something that individuals men like Harmony are worried about. Institutions like the ILGC, the example revolution regard called, they're worried about that, and they need to have as many people participating in this election as they can again to give that system and their own system a sense of legitimacy and credibility. And that's why Pezeshkian's presence is so key and important from a political point of view.
Can you just briefly explain the process here, just so we can understand why we don't consider this to be a free election.
Well, I don't know whether i'd say it's not entirely a free election. It's a highly circumscribed These elections tend to be very heavily stage stage managed from the outset. So you have a procedure whereby individuals who have to meet a certain criteria can go to the Interior Ministry and apply to become to register to become presidential candidates. The criteria some of it includes being between the age of forty and seventy five or forty five and seventy
five I think I can't quite remember. You have to have some experience in political office, and you have to have no criminal records. And there are some things that are less clear, like being a woman is something that's it's up for debates whether the Uranian constitution prohibits women from being presidents or not being a Sunday. You definitely have to be a Muslim. There's never been a non Shia Muslim president in Iran since nineteen seventy nine, since
we've had the presidency. So you have that process where people who meet that criteria register and then once they've registered, we have this very powerful non elected body called the Guardian Council. That's made up of twelve theologians who basically decide which of those two hundred or so people who've registered can actually run. They're the people that decide who gets disqualified. And that means that there's this perception that it's a very stage managed process.
Talk us through how we should be thinking about this from an international point of view. Obviously Iran has a very tasty relationship with the West, first of all, and how should people sitting in London or in Washington be looking at this and thinking about this election.
I mean, I think they need to be looking at not just who becomes president, but how how the entire government administration is then managed afterwards. So what's critical, for instance, is if hypothetically Pezeshkian, who's this token reformist, experienced candidate, does win the majority of votes, if he becomes president,
what then happens to the foreign policy file? Because one of the issues I think when Raharni, who managed to kind of refashion himself as a moderate in twenty thirteen when he ran for the election, he won that election basically on a mandate of sanctions removal, better relations with the West, and some kind of dayton with the US.
But the problem was that his foreign policy was constantly being attacked by hardliners, and because he gave almost kind of full reign to moderate politicians like Javad Zari, these multi lingual, you know, very errudite, sort of articulate diplomats to kind of schmooze in New York and go on these promenade walks in Switzerland with men like John Kerry. Stuff like that doesn't go down well amongst the hard
line within the hardline establishment in Tehran. So, for instance, if someone like Peziskion does become president, you then have to ask, well, if the foreign policy file is given to hardliners and someone who de facto has the support of the IRGC, maybe that will make for a less contentious, paradoxically more stable administration and you can so I think
that's what we need to look out for. It's not just who wins the top job, it's who looks after the strategic decisions that are going to decide the kind of direction of traveling. Yeah, exactly.
Yeah, I wonder also because because we're obviously very focused on Iran's relationship with the region as well, and as particularly you know, after the incidence with Israel in recent months.
Two.
I mean, how much of an impact could this election have on how Israel interacts with its neighbors.
At the bottom line is that, you know, the Islamic Republic is very much in terms of foreign policy, it's almost defined by its support for Palestine, for Palestinians, and it's also defined by the fact that it opposes the very presence of the States of Israel, at least rhetorically. That's the rhetoric that's not going to change.
Now.
There are kind of agreements and sort of arrangements or relationships that are managed so that they kind of can tolerate whatever consensus exists in the region. So, for instance, they need a strong economic relationship with the UAE. They have to Dubai has been referred to as Iran's economic lung,
for instance, for decades. So if you have these accords, the so called Abraham Accords between the UAE and Israel, for instance, Iran can and does turn a blind eye to that and just keep it on a separate track to its economic trade relationship with the UAE. That's something that won't change regardless of who who becomes president. What can change is if someone like Jali Lee who's, like
I said, very very conservative fundamentalist. If he's president, he is probably less likely to be bothered about pragmatic outcomes that protect Iran's trade relationship with the Europeans, for instance, or he might be less concerned about preventing an escalation over Iran's nuclear program with the US. He's much more in the vein of if you want a Western comparison, someone like John Bolton, he's more He's very focused on
this idea. It's almost a bit like I mean, Putin's trip to North Korea made me think of Jali Lee because that's something that I would think he almost would aspire to that type of profile, a Putin type profile where he goes on trips to countries like North Korea, Turkmenistan. You know, he focuses on this non aligned, anti NATO, anti US axis. So you know, if someone like Pezeshkian was president, that there may be more of an effort.
I'm just speculating here to find some kind of balance or to kind of take a more proactive role within Palestinian politics in terms of balance, the kind of balancing Iran's relationship with Hamas and not just Hesbonna, but also Fatah as well right to take a more proactive, constructive.
Role thanks to Bloomberg's Gollnarmota Valley. I'm Stephen Carolyn London. You can catch us every weekday morning here for Bloomberg Daybreak here at beginning at six am in London and one am on Wall Streets.
Tom Well, thank you, Steven, and coming up on Bloomberg day Break weekend to look at US China relations as presidential candidates in the US prepare to debate. I'm Tom Busby and this is Bloomberg. I'm Tom Busby in New York with your global look ahead at the top stories for investors in the coming week. The first US presidential debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump will take place this coming Thursday, June twenty seventh, and the US relationship with China is sure to get a lot of attention.
For more, let's get to Bloomberg Daybreak Asia co host Doug Krisner and Brian Curtis.
Tom this year's presidential election will shape the course of relations between the US and China for the next four years.
Now.
To be fair, there are differences between these candidates and their approaches to China, and there are similarities. Both agree China's industrial and trade policies are putting American companies at a disadvantage, and the two agree on keeping national security a priority. They differ when it comes to the notion of isolation.
And that means that China may be put in a difficult position. It's likely US policies on trade will get even tougher going forward, as both President Biden and former President Trump want to reduce US reliance on Chinese goods. Among the products targeted by the new US levies are electric vehicles, batteries, and semiconductors. And joining us now for further discussion on this is Rebecca Chong Wilkins, Bloomberg Asia Government and Politics correspondent and John Leu, Bloomberg Executive Editor
in Beijing. Rebecca, if I could go to you first, Former President Trump initially started the trade war with China to bring manufacturing back home to the United States, but now he's talking more about raising tariffs and using that as a way to increase US revenues. So this is pretty interesting how it complicates the picture. President Biden has been somewhat more targeted. Could this go all the way to China's most favorite nation status being stripped.
I suppose when we think about Trump, the whole obvious element is the unpredictability of where this will go. So far bit from me to make a prediction on where he'll direct his policy. But I think from Beijing's point of view, it is precisely the unpredictability which is a concern here. I spoke to an advisor to Beijing quite recently.
He sits on China's sort of top broader political committee, and he said that, of course things haven't been easy under Biden, but Biden has been somewhat constrained because he, for example, works harder to build consensus among his allies, and some other countries have sort of somewhat muted the position.
But when it comes to Trump, there is this element of unpredictability which really makes it much more dangerous, potentially makes them a much more dangerous character for Beijing to deal with.
John Back in the twenty twenty presidential campaign, when Biden and Trump last faced one another, there was this view among some of the geopolitical watching community that Biden would develop a multilateral approach in dealing with China and Trump. The more isolationist approach. Now we've seen Biden kind of marshal together some cooperation. I'm thinking of export controls on semiconductors. Japan,
the Netherlands involved with the US on that front. Is Beijing prepared to deal with the Trump administration potentially that would take more of an isolationist approach.
I think that Beijing's main concern with the Trump administration is just as Rebecca outlined, the unpredictability. I think the way that Trump goes about it, the style of that execution, it being less reliant on allies, less reliant on trying to build consensus, that probably plays into Beijing's hand more
than it hurts Beijing. If you look at Europe, for example, if Trump were to simultaneously put in tariffs against China and European goods, that would actually help China try and strengthen its relationship with Europe and maybe to overcome some of the trade challenges that exist there as well.
Doug mentioned semiconductors. That's such a key industry. The US had some pretty famous battles with Japan on semiconductors going way way back. The US had the early lead, Japan won that lead back in the eighties, and then the US rested it back decades later. I think the big difference though, is that Japan was an ally all through it. China is not. So is that industry semiconductors where the real stakes are and where the real battles will lie.
I think it's become pretty clear that one of the key, if not the most important arena for the competition between
the United States and China is in technology. So be it chips, be it the AI that is powered by those chips, and so I think no matter who becomes president, I would expect the United States to continue to squeeze as much as possible, because I think the ultimate objective here for the US is to make sure that China does not become does not reach some sort of technological parody and potentially some sort of military parody that that technological prowess would bring about.
Rebecca, let's talk a little bit about geopolitics right now, particularly where Taiwan is concerned. What would we expect from another Trump administration that is different from the way in which the Biden administration has been tackling Taiwan.
Well, the Biden administration more recently seems to have slightly moderated, and I will say there does seem to be a faties of pragmatic view in Beijing when they have been these sort of slip ups or certain comments around Taiwan.
Beijing has been relatively muted of late. It does seem to understand that China, the issue of Taiwan, is of course going to come up and be a very hot topic in this US election, and that of course the Overton window in terms of what people are willing to say, has shifted across the board, whether it's in the Democratic Party or among Republicans. But again, sorry to harp on on the same issue, but I think it is this problem of unpredictability where it is hard to anticipate where
Trump might move. And of course part of that is because the whole position, the US position, is about maintaining the status quo and maintaining this ambiguity.
Well, speaking of unpredictability, I mean President she himself has been unpredictable in some ways in dealings with you know, with the tech industry, with various sectors in China. And I'm wondering if China wants to hit back at the United Slate States, where is the United States most vulnerable in a.
Sense, Well, it certainly does have room to maneuver. And I would just say it's not just the United States that it can hit back on, but also the EU. And so, for example, before we had that EU decision on tariffs, we did see sort of Chinese state media and experts sort of trailing the possibility of retaliating with tariffs or investigations into food, wine, planes, transport.
And so on.
But certainly it can consider moves like restricting trade and market access. It could also think about going further to restrict certain exports, and you know, it does have sort of tools in its toolbox.
John to Bryan's point, when you consider companies American firms like Apple or Tesla, any sense of how their dealings with Beijing may change under a Trump administration.
I think there would be a lot of concern from the likes of Apple and Tesla about potentially losing market share in China because of something that Trump administration has undertaken. I think Beijing will take a relatively restrained approach when it comes to these companies because, for one, Apple employees so many people in China making iPhones and iPads, et cetera. Same for Tesla. China's the world's largest car market electric
car market, and Tesla's a huge player. And Tesla not only makes cars in China for China, but is also exporting a lot of electric cars that are produced in Chia to other parts of the world.
I'm curious about the China bashing because it works pretty well on both you know, President Biden and President Trump's hustings when they're out talking to people. If we flip that around in China, you live there in Beijing. Is China pretty adept at US bashing? And how does that play with the populace?
I think. I think the Chinese government is very adept and very proactive about making sure that there's a perception that it is standing up for the interests of the Chinese people. And that comes in play when we're talking about things like Taiwan, like the South China Sea, especially during the last Trump administration, where there were slights such as you know, Trump calling COVID the China flu in.
This is like that China. The Chinese government is very compelled in those instances to stand up and to show that it is fighting for you know, China's pride, prestige, et cetera. And you know, as nationalism goes, I think that is a tool for every government in every country in the world. Patriotism, the love of one's country. That is something the president, she and the government here will play on to its advantage.
In May twenty twenty, I believe the Trump administration suspended visas for Chinese graduate students with ties to universities affiliated with the People's Liberation Army. Now President Biden upheld that suspension students were still being denied visas as recently as twenty twenty three. Rebecca, how is this situation going to change change under any new administration, whether it's a new Biden administration or a Trump administration.
Yeah, I think this issue of sort of people to people exchanges, as it's formally put in diplomatic circles is really a key one. And it's interesting because both President student Ping and President Biden are trying to actually changes. Both have highlighted the need to get these exchanges back on the road, including at their sit down on the
sidelines of APEC in San Francisco November. But really we haven't seen much sort of substantive progress at all, and I will say, you know, sources and folks that sort of business folks that I speak to do raise this concern about the safety, their personal safety of going to China. You know, whether or not that sort of substantiated, there still is this sort of big perception issue over personal safety when it comes to making these trips and when
it comes to sort of regularly resuming these ties. The other big focus, particularly if Biden does win, we'll be trying to get student exchanges back on the road.
So we don't know who's going to win the presidential election, but we said in our introduction that we basically thought that things would get tougher for China on the rhetoric side in the US for sure going forward. And that's up until the election. But what about afterwards, of course it depends on who wins, Rebecca, But is there any chance that things would settle down and relations could improve after the election.
Well, yeah, of course, I think it's important to highlight that campaign promises are not necessarily real world policies here in any way. But you know, we think about when Biden came in, some were expecting him to take a ease up just a little bit, and in fact we saw the opposite, He doubled down on those tariffs. So even if we just continue on a similar momentum when it comes to introducing more restrictions and more cubs, that's still quite a sort of intense pressure that is being
placed on Beijing. Even if it's more predictable, it's easier for them to understand the context. The other concern, as John mentioned too, is if it is Biden, in particular, if he's able to continue bringing other countries along and lock and step moving with the US. We see, for example, the EU probe into EVS and the EU which previously had been somethink of a sort of striking trying to strike a more middle path, let's say, something sort of more moderate from the US, and keen to strike and
emphasize its difference from the US. We see the EU and various European Union nations moving a little bit closer to the US, So that is another concern too.
Rebecca, John, thanks so much for joining us and sharing your insights with us. We've been chatting with Rebecca Cheng Wilkins, Bloomberg Asia Government and Politics correspondent in John Liu, Bloomberg Executive Editor in Beijing, I'm Brian Curtis in Hong Kong along with Doug Krisner. You can catch us every weekday here for Bloomberg Daybreak Asia, beginning at eight am in Hong Kong and eight pm on Wall Street. Tom.
Thank you Brian, and thank you Doug. And that does it for this edition of Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend. Join us again Monday morning at five Wall Street time for the latest on markets overseas and the news you need to start your day. I'm Tom Busby. Stay with us. Top stories and global business headlines are coming up right now