Daybreak Weekend: Holiday Shopping, BOJ Decision, Bitcoin ETFs - podcast episode cover

Daybreak Weekend: Holiday Shopping, BOJ Decision, Bitcoin ETFs

Dec 16, 202335 min
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Episode description

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week.

1) In the US - US retail sales unexpectedly picked up in November as lower gasoline prices allowed consumers to spend more to kick off the holiday shopping season.

2) In the UK -  It's crunch time for last-minute shoppers ahead of the holidays in London - with retailers hoping for a last-minute surge in spending, despite the general economic gloom.

3) In Asia - Bank of Japan officials see little need to rush into scrapping the world’s last negative interest rate this month as they have yet to see enough evidence of wage growth that would support sustainable inflation

4) In Washington - Anticipation of a new wave of investors has Bitcoin booming once again. Key to the newfound optimism are indications that the US will soon approve exchange-traded funds that invest directly in the cryptocurrency.

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Transcript

Speaker 1

This is Bloomberg day Break Weekend, our global look at the top stories in the coming week from our Daybreak anchors all around the world, and straight ahead on the program. After this week's encouraging retail sales numbers, we check in on the health of the US consumer. I'm Tom Busby in New York.

Speaker 2

I'm callin Hedge here in London, where we're asking what's next for the UK retail center.

Speaker 3

I'm Derek Prisoner. We map out what comes next for the Bank of Japan.

Speaker 4

I'm Kabie Liones in Washington, where the SEC is in the spotlight as it soon may decide whether to approve a spotfit point ets.

Speaker 5

That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend. The business news you need to wrap up your week, Available on Apple Spotify, The Bloomberg Business Happen everywhere you get your podcasts.

Speaker 1

Good day to you. I'm Tom Busby. It's the most wonderful time of the year for retailers anyway. So we begin today's program with a look at the US retail sector and the strength of the US consumer. Last week's unexpected rise in retail sales for November. I'll welcome sign as we enter the final shopping week of the holiday season, and for more we're joined by economists a Stelle Oh of Bloomberg Economics and Bloomberg Intelligence retail analyst Abigail gil Martin.

Thank you both for being here. All right, is Stelle, We're going to start with you. After that early Christmas gift last week from the Fed signaling several interest rate cuts in the new year, solid jobs data, the unemployment rate down to three point seven percent last month, and retail sales in November up more than four percent year over year. How is the US consumer doing right now?

Speaker 6

Thanks Tom? Yeah, so, the US consumer right now is still continuing their spending moment from over the summer, but ver seeing that the consumer is still remaining under pressure even with this week's upbeat retail sales report. And that's because when we look under the hood of the retail sales report, we see that most of the strength is actually coming from non store retail sales and food services

retail sales categories. What this means is that, you know, consumers are still very much bargain hunting online, where when you're online you can compare prices much more easily between stores.

And also still not really purchasing big ticket items that are sensitive to interest rates right now, So they're not purchasing large home appliances that require more credit card spending, and they're also not purchasing more larger electronic products at this time of the year where you would expect more you know, big ticket discretionary purchases. So overall, Tom, we still think that the US consumer health is still more fragile than it was at the very beginning of the year.

Speaker 1

And could many consumers, especially younger ones, be kind of hurting themselves relying a little too much on credit cards, buy now, pay later plans for their spending habits.

Speaker 6

Absolutely, Tom. In fact, we actually think that with the increase in interest rates, there's a risk that you know, household debt servings cost debt servings costs as a ratio of income, that's, you know, the interest rate you would have to pay on your credit card balances could rise to at least you know, eleven or twelve percent by year end next year, even if the labor market stays cool and the Fed, as you know, cut may cut interest Even if the Fed cuts interest rates as they

suggest that they might do earlier this week, and you know, with the household debt servicing cost ratio that is roughly eleven percent, that's the highest it's been since early twenty ten. So we really expect that, you know, if consumers continue to build up their credit card balances through purchases in the holiday season, that is just you know, more debt burden for the household ahead.

Speaker 1

Well, that does not paint a very good picture. Abigail, let's turn to you. How is that, you know, this uneven recovery in the consumer spending and how does that impact the retail sector.

Speaker 7

You know, we weren't too surprised so that we've been kind of saying all November we've been seeing strong holiday momentum, as it was evident in Cyber Week numbers. You know, we saw sales beating or in line with forecasts all week and what we've heard from companies and retailers after reporting three key results, you know, going into four Q this holiday quarter, inventory is our leaner, which is going to bode well for you know, margins because there won't

be discounts. What we've seen so far are similar to last year, but nowhere near you know, as steep as a few years prior. So that's really great, and retailers are encouraged with the strong start and also the fact that there's an extra shopping day between Thanksgiving and Christmas this year, with Christmas actually falling on a Monday, it's giving consumers at one extra weekend day, which is going to be pretty important and probably also help retailer sales kind of going into the holidays.

Speaker 1

So well, one thing is still mentioned. I want to go back to and Abigail, you would know this encouraging retail sales figures for online retailers, they are getting the bulk of this, you know, largest and spending. What can you tell me about Amazon, which started it's holiday sales back in October, maybe even before.

Speaker 7

Yeah, it did, and I'm pretty sure they actually had a couple extra days for their Black Friday sales event this year as well, so they actually extended their deals. But at the same time, their deals were in line or even you know, less than last year. And we think that's because they were spread out over a longer time. So they're just trying to draw those sales on earlier in the month first, you know, later now where things

are about to get congested. But yeah, the shift online it's persisting from COVID, and we're seeing consumers really value convenience and speed, and those are two big things that are going to be driving holiday spending this year, and Amazon really hits both of those on the head and

it provides that to customers, so we're not surprised. We saw that online retailers were doing strong over Cyber Week, and even on Thanksgiving and Black Friday, we saw stores were strong, but online was just as strong on Black Friday, So I think it goes well for Amazon. But yeah, I think it's really that value and convenience that's helping there.

Speaker 6

Now.

Speaker 1

Conversely, one big name, Etsy, the craft retailer, not doing as well, just announce some layoffs.

Speaker 7

Yeah, they announced some layoffs. You know, they're going back to their staffing back in twenty twenty two, similar Earth levels.

But they did, you know, they raised guidance. They raised GMB guidance and profit guidance, which I think went a little unnoticed just due to the you know, the cost cuts as well as they still see two to three percent sales revenue gains in four Q. So some good and bad things there, but we think in the long run, it's what they need at drive profitable growth going forward.

Speaker 1

Estella, I want to go back to you and the impact of lower gasoline prices and how that has helped retailers. Maybe consumers feeling a little more impoltant to spend more, they're spending a lot less at the gas pump. Now, we we.

Speaker 6

Did some estimates on our team of how much of a contribution the recent decline and oil prices may have boosted spending space and consumer's wallet and estimate that, you know, depending on how long lower gas prices last and how much further they dropped, they could potentially see savings that range from you know, twenty dollars per month to almost one hundred dollars per month per household. And that's quite a bit of stimulus that's been provided to consumers during the holiday season.

Speaker 1

And another sector that did well and these are in the numbers for November, bars and restaurants. People are they want to get out, they want to eat, they want to drink, they want to see other people.

Speaker 6

Absolutely right. That's actually a continuation from what we've been seeing throughout the most of the year, where you know, service, the services sector has been quite the pillar of strength for the US economy, but we do expect that to slow down as again, you know, households see increase debt burdens and higher interest recosts.

Speaker 1

Abigail, I want to go back to you. I want to talk about some of the retailers that are doing well, maybe some aren't. And we can start with some of the biggest like Walmart, Target, some other discount and then also the traditional department stores. So one week left of shopping, how are these retailers doing.

Speaker 7

You know, they're doing good. I think they retailers are going out to you know, mass margins. Like she said, people consumers are still looking to buy you know, the necessities, and I think that's where Walmart will continue to benefit as well as with this value proposition. I think department stores are coming out, you know, they're really going strong for the holiday with experiences as well, which you know, back to kind of what you mentioned with restaurants and services.

Consumers are still seeking those experiences this holiday season, and the more that those retailers can start to provide them, you know, we think that that'll bide really well. But I think what's really going to be driving any kind of winners or losers this year is going to be the value proposition that they're offering shoppers. Like you know, she mentioned, they're under pressure. We're still seeing some strong

sales results, but it's where the deals are. Where are they going to get the best staying for their buck. So the more that they can kind of provide that, the more that we think they'll do well.

Speaker 1

And do you think some of the smaller retailers, the mom and pop stores, how are they faring against the big names?

Speaker 7

Yeah, I think, you know, I think with the younger generations, you know, they're actually doing well. They're going younger generations are looking for those kind of one off shop so they can find something unique, which is always good for

those mom and pop retailers. But they're going to be having to compete with these larger retailers for the price, and it's going to be a little harder for them to kind of have that discount down compared to some other retailers that have the scale and are able to drive that more. So they'll definitely be pressured going forward. But the more they can leverage Amazon with Amazon Amazon today kind of in that sense that they're kind of still getting some of that online sales.

Speaker 1

Well with one week left a lot to look forward to. Our thanks to economists To stell Oh of Bloomberg Economics and Bloomberg Intelligence, retail analyst Abigail gil Martin. Coming up on Bloomberg day Break weekend, we continue looking at the retail sector and get a view from the perspective of European shoppers. I'm Tom Busby, and this is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg Daybreak weekend, our global look ahead at the top stories for investors in the coming week. I'm Tom

Busby in New York. Up later in our program, after the FED, the BOE, and the ECB all holding rates steady, we get a preview of what we can expect from the Bank of Japan. But first in the UK, we'll get new consumer and retail price data in the coming days. Despite falling inflation, festive shopping might still be held back by slowing wage growth as COVID piggybank savings run dry. For more, Let's go to London and bring in Bloomberg Daybreak europe banker Caroline Hepger.

Speaker 2

Tom, It's crunch time for last minute shoppers ahead of the holidays here in London, with retailers hoping for a last minute surge in spending despite the general economic gloom. The latest growth data for the UK showed that consumer facing services contracted for a fourth month in a row, while the economy overall contracted more than had been expected. Now Here is what Dan Hanson of Bloomberg Economics told us about the outlook for the coming months.

Speaker 8

This line between contraction and stagnation is going to be a fine one, and it remains a fine one. It has been a fine one for the past eighteen months, is probably going to be the same for the next nine months. But I think you know, it was worse than expected, and you know, it looks like the fourth quarter there'll probably be a contraction. I think everyone's understanding is that the goal to grow the economy was to get quarterly growth in the final quarter of the year,

and it looks like it's based on this data. It's going to be a tough ask.

Speaker 2

Is there anything in the data or in the stance at the moment that proves that next year could be better than expected?

Speaker 5

Yeah?

Speaker 8

Absolutely. So you can look at the sort of data in two ways, can't You can always be like, oh, well, the economy contracted and it contracted by a bit, but

it's still contracted and that's not very good. But if you compare that to the reality or sort of what you would have expected if you were told eighteen months ago or two years ago that the Bank of England was about to jack up interest rates by five hundred bases points, you know, most of us would have fallen off chair and said there'd be a deep recession, and

we just haven't had that. So this sort of upside or the sort of better news story that's there is that the economy has almost consistently outperformed expectations and the hit from interest rates has been far, far less than anyone would have expected if you'd sort of been given this scenario and said, how will this play out over the next two years or so. And you know, the other thing, the other very important point for consumers is that there's real wage growth has returned, and that is

that's a really positive thing. Nominal wages are growing faster than prices, and that that is a really positive story, and that could be a reason why again the economy does hold up over the course of twenty twenty four.

Speaker 2

So that was Dan Hanson with his view from Bloomberg Economics after those GDP figures. Well, inflation in the UK is slowing. That's one bit of good news. In October the headline print was at four point six percent. The CPI released you in the coming few days will also tell us just how far it remains above the Bank of England's goal.

Speaker 6

Now.

Speaker 2

Ahead of that, we've been thinking about the outlook for the UK consumer, hit hard by price rises over the past year. I've been discussing this with Bloomberg opinion columnist Andrea Felsted and our UK retail reporter Katie linsel. I started by asking Andrew what the mindset of British consumers is right now.

Speaker 9

I think it really depends where you are. You know, older people they don't have mortgages. They're finally getting some return on their savings, their pensions of one up. They're doing very nicely and are spending well on holidays, eating out. Midlife families much more difficult. They've got mortgage. You know,

inflation hasn't gone away. You know, we think about things like school fees they've been going up for years, and then you've got you know, unfortunately, those who are really struggling in the economy, who spend a lot more on essential so they're still having to pay more for food even though inflation is easing, more for heating, and we're not getting the help that we got for the government

on heating last year, so they are really struggling. It really depends where you are on how you are looking forward to Christmas and next year.

Speaker 2

Yeah, really a segmentation the issue or issues around inequality and what your pay pack. It looks like Katie, the UK consumer having said that, has been quite broadly resilient. What's the outlook for the coming months as far as you're concerned.

Speaker 10

I think exactly as Andrew said, you know, this is the time when people are going to be spending on Christmas within their means as much as they can. So I think the key thing is to see really how the consumer copes in January and the months beyond when the credit card bills come in. The buy now, pay

later figures need to be settled. We have seen that figures from PwC say that Christmas spending is going to be down thirteen percent to twenty billion pounds in the UK, and so shoppers are sort of pulling back a bit, and I think it's going to be interesting to see how they how they cope in the months when the bills come due.

Speaker 2

Oh yeah, they buy now, pay later. Yes, that's a big issue. But on the other side of things, luxury Andrew, you keep a close watch on this sector amongst others in retail. Are there those sectors that remain robust.

Speaker 9

The only set of retail that really seems to be remaining robust is that catering through the very wealthiest echelon in society. So we had Brunello Cucinelli makes, you know, very expensive cashmere. They upgraded their outlook for the fourth time this year. Hermes make a very expensive bags, still doing well, but lower down luxury, the luxury that you know, perhaps the simply comfortable treat themselves too. They might treat themselves to a Gucci handbag or perhaps a nice watch.

They're really under pressure from interest rates, you know, stock markets being quite volatile, less crypto gains, you know, interest rates. They can't buy things on credit, or they're putting their safe if they've got savory, they may be putting them to work rather than perhaps spend spending it on a rolex, so that they're they're really you know, they are pulling it pulling back, and we've got luxury really normalizing. Aside from that really top.

Speaker 2

End, Well, what about the pricing power that retailers broadly have, Katie, Do they have much of that left? We talked a lot about that, you know, with the rise in inflation.

Speaker 10

Yes, I think retailers are still really flagging the fact that they are under pressure from inflation, that there is still a huge burden from the cost of energy. Yes, it's come down, but it's still much higher than where it was before. And then the other key thing to look at is the labor market, and labor costs have

really gone up. Also, we can look at the fact that we had the recent awesome statement announcing that from April we will see a rise in the national living wage, and we had a piece recently out from saying that retailers are really not not best placed in a way about this burden. They have a huge workforce and that's really going to push up their costs. And I think therefore we can actually expect that inflation won't necessarily come down.

Price inflation from retailers won't come down as fast as we might hope, because they've got to help their margins, you know, they can't cost their cut their prices as frequently as quickly as they might like to because of that burden from the higher wages.

Speaker 2

And then you have the story of the Dice and Air app which is apparently one of the potentially hot items of the holiday season of this quarter, and it's something you've written about. Andrea, A thousand bucks. What's the price tag in the UK or in Europe, Well.

Speaker 9

It should be about four hundred and eighty pounds, but at the moment there's about eighty pounds off, so this is quite unusual that it's actually been discounted at the moment. Now curries are saying they're selling very well, and this is really interesting because you know, we're buying them so we can save on getting our hairstyled. We can do, you know, a bouncy look at home rather than have to go to the salon. So I thought that was quite an interesting little take on the consumer mindset.

Speaker 2

Yes, and I'm sorry your peace was talking about how they should be a thously They.

Speaker 9

Should they should be because there's lots of competition in this space.

Speaker 11

Now.

Speaker 9

Interesting last year there were no discounts. I mean you couldn't count the amount of times. I googled dice and air app discount last year and there were none, But this year, you know, there were a lot of discous There's a lot of competition out there, so to stay ahead of the curve, Dyson needs to reinvent itself as a luxury brand.

Speaker 2

Thanks to Blimberg's consumer goods opinion colonist Andrew Fel said, and our UK retail reporter Katie Lindsel, I'm Calline Hepgar here in London. You can catch us every weekday morning for Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, beginning at six am in London. That's one am on Wall Street.

Speaker 1

Tom, Thanks Caroline, and coming up on Bloomberg day Break weekend, we preview the upcoming rate decision out of the Bank of Japan. I'm Tom Busby and this is Bloomberg. I'm Tom Busby with your global look ahead at the top stories for investors in the coming week. Onto Japan and whether we're at the end of an unprecedented run of monetary easing policies. Economists expect the Bank of Japan to

scrap negative interest rates by the end of April. Meantime, Bloomberg has reported Japan's Central Bank is likely to keep its monetary stimulus settings unchanged at a policy meeting next week. Let's take a further look with Bloomberg Daybreak Asia co host Doug Krisner.

Speaker 3

Tom Our sources tell us the Bank of Japan is in no rush to scrap negative interest rates, nor is the BOJ ready to drop its yield curve control program. Now this does counter market speculation a bit. There have been bets on the BOJ shifting to end negative interest rates, and some were saying it could happen as soon as this meeting. But what we are told is that the BOJ has yet to see enough evidence of wage growth, and wage growth would support the notion of sustainable inflation.

Speaker 5

To help us.

Speaker 3

Preview the BOJ meeting, we bring in Bloomberg's Taro Komura. Tarrow is Bloomberg Economics Japan economist. He joins us from Tokyo. Taro, thanks for making time for us. I think we have to say that the BOJ has in the past surprise not only economists but markets. Is it likely that we get a surprise this time around?

Speaker 12

No, I don't think so. I At this time, the busy will stand pad on its ilk curve control and negative interest rates. So of course, like I understand, the market suspects another surprise this month, particularly after last year's December accrued US YCC surprise. That's understandable, But the governor changed and with us communication, although he had to tweak YCC a little bit in July in October, but I think his baseline is he don't want to make a

huge surprise and shock to the financial market. And based on his communication, it's clear that economic development doesn't support achieving two percent inflation near time soon and with a clearly underscores that he has to see the result of the spring waste negotiation, which is an annual catalyst of Japanese workers regular workers base pay. So that's why he at least has to wait until April before scrapping YC see a negative rate instead of this month.

Speaker 3

So Governor Wada, the head of the BOJ, has a long history with the Bank of Japan, and I think it's fair to say that he understands the danger of moving hastily. Am I right on that right absolutely?

Speaker 12

Looking back the boj's history, there are two painful experience in which the BOJ was hugely criticized as their exits were hasty. One timing is its exit from zero interest rate policy already back in two thousand and Actually the terrent governor Uda was one of the policy members then and he actually voted against to that exit, but also as a policy member, I think he has a vivid memory that its exit was probably too quick, given that soon after that there was a US tech bubble collapse

and a huge downturn in the economy. And the second one is back in two thousand and six, when it exits from its first quantitative easing started in two thousand and one, and even though it was criticized as hasty, the BOJ took more than half a year to signals. It's given that timeframe, I think it's still a long way for the BOJ to communicate and to make market understand the exits is coming.

Speaker 3

That said, I can understand the market's tendency to want to make a bet that the BOJ would move at the December meeting. We've been well above or when I say we am speaking of the Japanese economy, we have seen inflation well above the two percent target for more than a year now, and I'm going to go back to last week with the ton Con data, the large

manufacturing and non manufacturing indexes were much above forecast. So is there not a case to be made that the economy is doing well enough where the BOJ could begin altering policy at this point in time?

Speaker 12

Right the assessment about the assessment of the Japan's economy, it's correct that the Tonkens data was a big positive, so the sentiment for at least big corporates are getting better. And actually that's right. The headline inflation as well above boj's two percent target for nineteen months. Now. I'm having said that in terms of the inflation, as a japan economist and as a person who grew up in Japan, I cannot underscore enough that it's such a high hurdle

for this country to have two percent inflation. So long term macroeconomic stagnation since nineteen nineties led firms very reluctant to raise prices because customers got really price sensitive. And at the same time, we haven't had inflation for three decades. That means one generation. That means people don't expect inflation to happen very easily. So those are the background in

which the BOJ is very causes. Although headline inflation is above two percent, they are very I think they are very afraid of after the cost push factor abates, it's getting back to this inflation state. That's why they keep the stimulus. At the same time, a recent positive note in TUNCAM supports the next year's annual spring wage negotiation. So if there's a huge wage hike happened there in the next spring, it's going to be a big push for the BOJA to consider shifts about the policy.

Speaker 3

Last week on Daybreak Asia, we were talking with Bloomberg's Paul Jackson, one of your colleagues in Tokyo, about the Japanese economy, and we tried to address the issue of how consumers in Japan are feeling and whether or not mister and Missus Watanabe are optimistic about the economy. Here's what Paul had to say.

Speaker 13

They're not happy at all. The popularity and support for the Prime Minister has been at historic record lows for his administration, and he's been pulling out all the stops with subsidies to try and lower the impact of inflation. So the inflation rate actually would be significantly higher without these government subsidies. This, of course, has created a lot of you know, conflicting signals for the public. You know, the government wants inflation and yet it's giving measures to

lower inflation. It's going to make up your mind. So in a sense, if the boj does scrap its negative interest rate, it's going to look more like the government and the Bank of Japan are pointing in the same direction for the average person on the street.

Speaker 3

Tara, I'd like to get your reaction on what you just heard there from Paul about the way in which the average consumer in Japan is making sense of government policies, right.

Speaker 12

I totally agree with Paul's view. Actually, the current inflation is it's clear that it's sapping the consumer sentiment, and not only the sentiment. The GDP data shows are GDP data show the private consumption drops for the second straight quarters, in the second quarter, in the third quarter of this year, even though Japan should have had a strong tailwink from COVID reopening happened since May. So that says like inflation

usually way on consumer sentiments and consumption. So it's the tricky part is as a Japanic Onnlyst, I always struggle to give a easy explanation on this. But the BOJ is irked by inflation, the cost push inflation or bad inflation. So that's why in their logic they have to keep a stimulus in the economy. And actually the government wants to do something for that and that Fishita Prime Minister decided an income tax cut, but it's going to be

happening only in June or July in next year. So kind of the government is not giving a strong leadership and sending a clear message to help the consumer and households. And probably that's one of the main reasons Prime Minister Kishida's supporting rate is getting lower and lower.

Speaker 3

Taro, thank you so much for helping us set up this week's BOJ meeting. Taro Komura is a Bloomberg Economics Japan economist joining us. I'm Doug Krisner. You can join Brian Curtis and myself weekdays here for Bloomberg day Break Asia beginning at seven am in Hong Kong six pm on Wall Street.

Speaker 1

Tom, thank you, Doug, and coming up on Bloomberg day Break weekend, we hear from the SEC about a possible approval of a spot bitcoin et F. I'm Tom Busby And this is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg day Break weekend, our global look ahead at the top stories for investors in the coming week. I'm Tom Busby in New York. Anticipation of a new wave of investors has bitcoin booming once again. Key to the newfound optimism indications that the US will likely soon approve exchange traded funds that invest

directly in the cryptocurrency. For more, Let's add to our Bloomberg ninety nine to one newsroom in Washington and Bloomberg Sound On co host Kaylee lines.

Speaker 4

Yeah, Tom, So often here in Washington we talk about politics because this is where the politicians are, but it's also where the regulators are, and one in particular has been in the spotlight, the SEC. There's a big question around whether the Securities in Exchange Commission may be getting close to doing something it hasn't done yet, finally approving a spot bitcoin ETF. I actually asked the SEC chair, Gary Gensler about that. This past week.

Speaker 11

We have I think somewhere between eight and a dozen filings in front of this agency with regard to exchange traded products around bitcoin, and the staff of the various divisions respond when market participants have filings. We also had a court case earlier this fall in this regard, and so we do things according to our authorities and how courts interpret our authorities, and that's what we'll do here as well.

Speaker 4

The court case he is alluding to, by the way, is the gray Scale case. Long story short. Grayscale wanted to convert its Bitcoin Investment Trust GBTC into a spot ETF. The SEC originally said no, so Grayscale sued, and a judge ruled that the SEC was arbitrary and capricious. That's a quote in its rejection. So the prevailing thinking is that gray Scale's finally going to be able to convert, and that opens the door to other spot ETFs being approved.

Let's get more on this with an actual expert. James Steifert is joining us. He's an ETF analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence. All right, James, is this going to happen and when?

Speaker 14

Yeah? So, first of all, I want to commend you on getting like a very unique and differentiative response from Kensler on this topic. He's notorious for giving a lot of long winded non answers, so that was not exactly a clear straightforward answer, but it was better than most people get, so put the job on that front. Yeah. So we basically since the beginning of October, even since August, we've been saying we think this is going to happen in January because we thought gray Scale was going to

win this case. In October we went to ninety percent odds that we'd see approvals on this front for spotpack on ets by January tenth. There's been some moves by the SEC, by Gensler's SEC in the recent weeks, and it's really looking like these things are going to be approved, and we could see those orders come down anywhere from January eighth to January tenth if we're really narrowing in on this window. So things are looking good and looking

like our call is going to be correct. But there obviously there's no guarantees here, but that's the way things are looking right now. And based on his quote that he gave you there, that sounds pretty promising that he's basically going to listen to the courts.

Speaker 4

Yeah. Well, he may not have a choice when all this said and done, but as we just heard from Chairgainsler, there are a lot of these file in front of him, so in front of the commission more broadly, and I wonder if it's going to be an idea where Greyscale won the battle, everybody else gets to win the war. Who gets to go first? Does everybody get to go all at once? Assuming it is going to be approval, Are they all going to get approved at the same time? How do you see this working?

Speaker 14

Yeah, so we've been pretty vocal in thinking that they're going to approve all at once. Basically, the way they approve Bitcoin futures GTS was they let it go first come, first serve, and pro shares was the first come in that case. And they've basically become dominant in the space. They are the only game in town for the most part when you look at trading liquidity and volume and assets for bitcoin futures etf So they'd learned from that and they basically don't want to be a king maker.

We saw this when they allowed each futures ETFs in October, they allowed everyone to go at once. There's thirteen applications if you include grey Scale's application for spot Bitcoin ETFs, and some of them have different variations how they would do this, But our view is they're going to allow all of them, basically approve all of them at once.

Speaker 4

All right, Well, they still need to get approval first, but it sounds like you think that'll be coming in just a few week. Extreme Safer of Bloomberg Intelligence, thank you so much, and Tom, I guess it may finally happen.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Kaylee. That was Bloomberg's sound on co host Kaylee Lines, reporting from our Bloomberg ninety nine to one newsroom in Washington. And you can hear sound on weekdays one to three pm Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio. And that does it for this edition of Bloomberg day Break Weekend. Join us again Monday morning at five am Wall Street Time for the latest on the market's overseas and the news you need to start your day. I'm Tom Buzzby.

Stay with us. Top stories and global business headlines are coming up right now.

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